TY  - JOUR
A1  - Wilson, Charlie
A1  - Guivarch, Céline
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
A1  - van Ruijven, Bas
A1  - van Vuuren, Detlef P.
A1  - Krey, Volker
A1  - Schwanitz, Valeria Jana
A1  - Thompson, Erica L.
T1  - Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation
JF  - Climatic change
N2  - Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community.
KW  - process-based integrated assessment model
KW  - IAM
KW  - evaluation
KW  - climate mitigation
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03099-9
SN  - 0165-0009
SN  - 1573-1480
VL  - 166
IS  - 1-2
PB  - Springer Science + Business Media B.V.
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  -