TY - JOUR A1 - Baumbach, Lukas A1 - Siegmund, Jonatan F. A1 - Mittermeier, Magdalena A1 - Donner, Reik Volker T1 - Impacts of temperature extremes on European vegetation during the growing season JF - Biogeosciences N2 - Temperature is a key factor controlling plant growth and vitality in the temperate climates of the mid-latitudes like in vast parts of the European continent. Beyond the effect of average conditions, the timings and magnitudes of temperature extremes play a particularly crucial role, which needs to be better understood in the context of projected future rises in the frequency and/or intensity of such events. In this work, we employ event coincidence analysis (ECA) to quantify the likelihood of simultaneous occurrences of extremes in daytime land surface temperature anomalies (LSTAD) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We perform this analysis for entire Europe based upon remote sensing data, differentiating between three periods corresponding to different stages of plant development during the growing season. In addition, we analyze the typical elevation and land cover type of the regions showing significantly large event coincidences rates to identify the most severely affected vegetation types. Our results reveal distinct spatio-temporal impact patterns in terms of extraordinarily large co-occurrence rates between several combinations of temperature and NDVI extremes. Croplands are among the most frequently affected land cover types, while elevation is found to have only a minor effect on the spatial distribution of corresponding extreme weather impacts. These findings provide important insights into the vulnerability of European terrestrial ecosystems to extreme temperature events and demonstrate how event-based statistics like ECA can provide a valuable perspective on environmental nexuses. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4891-2017 SN - 1726-4170 SN - 1726-4189 VL - 14 SP - 4891 EP - 4903 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - GEN A1 - Baumbach, Lukas A1 - Siegmund, Jonatan Frederik A1 - Mittermeier, Magdalena A1 - Donner, Reik Volker T1 - Impacts of temperature extremes on European vegetation during the growing season T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Temperature is a key factor controlling plant growth and vitality in the temperate climates of the mid-latitudes like in vast parts of the European continent. Beyond the effect of average conditions, the timings and magnitudes of temperature extremes play a particularly crucial role, which needs to be better understood in the context of projected future rises in the frequency and/or intensity of such events. In this work, we employ event coincidence analysis (ECA) to quantify the likelihood of simultaneous occurrences of extremes in daytime land surface temperature anomalies (LSTAD) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We perform this analysis for entire Europe based upon remote sensing data, differentiating between three periods corresponding to different stages of plant development during the growing season. In addition, we analyze the typical elevation and land cover type of the regions showing significantly large event coincidences rates to identify the most severely affected vegetation types. Our results reveal distinct spatio-temporal impact patterns in terms of extraordinarily large co-occurrence rates between several combinations of temperature and NDVI extremes. Croplands are among the most frequently affected land cover types, while elevation is found to have only a minor effect on the spatial distribution of corresponding extreme weather impacts. These findings provide important insights into the vulnerability of European terrestrial ecosystems to extreme temperature events and demonstrate how event-based statistics like ECA can provide a valuable perspective on environmental nexuses. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 642 KW - event coincidence analysis KW - Central Great-Plains KW - climate-change KW - precipitation extremes KW - weather extremes KW - soil-moisture KW - time-series KW - NDVI KW - phenology KW - trends Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418018 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 642 SP - 4891 EP - 4903 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bube, Kevin A1 - Neto, Camilo Rodrigues A1 - Donner, Reik Volker A1 - Schwarz, Udo A1 - Feudel, Ulrike T1 - Linear and nonlinear characterization of surfaces from a laser beam melt ablation process N2 - We apply linear and nonlinear methods to study the properties of surfaces generated by a laser beam melt ablation process. As a result we present a characterization and ordering of the surfaces depending on the adjusted process parameters. Our findings give some insight into the performance of two widely applied multifractal analysis methods-the detrended fluctuation analysis and the wavelet transform modulus maxima method-on short real world data Y1 - 2006 UR - http://iopscience.iop.org/0022-3727/ U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/0022-3727/39/7/011 SN - 0022-3727 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Ciemer, Catrin A1 - Rehm, Lars A1 - Kurths, Jürgen A1 - Donner, Reik Volker A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda A1 - Boers, Niklas T1 - An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1207 KW - complex networks KW - droughts KW - prediction KW - Amazon rainforest Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525863 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 9 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ciemer, Catrin A1 - Rehm, Lars A1 - Kurths, Jürgen A1 - Donner, Reik Volker A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda A1 - Boers, Niklas T1 - An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures JF - Environmental Research Letters N2 - Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months. KW - complex networks KW - droughts KW - prediction KW - Amazon rainforest Y1 - 2019 VL - 15 IS - 9 PB - IOP - Institute of Physics Publishing CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cser, Adrienn A1 - Donner, Reik Volker A1 - Schwarz, Udo A1 - Feudel, Ulrike A1 - Otto, Andreas H. T1 - Statistical parameters of a control strategy of laser beam melt ablation N2 - Laser beam melt ablation - a contact-free machining process - offers several advantages compared to conventional processing mechanisms: there exists no tool wear and even extremely hard or brittle materials can be processed. During ablation the workpiece is molten by a CO2-laser beam, this melt is then driven out by the impulse of a process gas. The idea behind laser ablation is rather simple, but it has a major limitation in practical applications: with increasing ablation rates surface quality of the workpiece processed declines rapidly. At high ablation rates, depending on the process parameters different periodic-like structures can be observed on the ablated surface. These structures show a dependence on the line energy, which has been identified as a fundamental control parameter. In dependence on this parameter several regimes with different behaviours of the process have been separated. These regimes are distinguishable as well in the surfaces obtained as in the signals gained by the measurement of the process emissions. Further aim is to identify the different modes of the system and reach a deeper understanding of the dynamics of the molten material in order to understand the formation of these surface structures. With this it should be possible to influence the system in the direction of avoiding structure formation even at high ablation rates. Relying on the results on-line monitoring and control of the process should be studied. Y1 - 2001 UR - http://www.agnld.uni-potsdam.de/~shw/Paper/2001-EIS.ps ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cser, Adrienn A1 - Donner, Reik Volker A1 - Schwarz, Udo A1 - Otto, Andreas H. A1 - Geiger, M. A1 - Feudel, Ulrike T1 - Towards a better understanding of laser beam melt ablation using methods of statistical analysis N2 - Laser beam melt ablation, as a contact free machining process, offers several advantages compared to conventional processing mechanisms. Although the idea behind it is rather simple, the process has a major limitation: with increasing ablation rate surface quality of the workpiece processed declines rapidly. The structures observed show a clear dependence of the line energy. In dependence of this parameter several regimes of the process have been separated. These are clearly distinguishable as well in the surfaces obtained as in the signals gained by the measurement of the process emissions which is the observed quantity chosen. Y1 - 2002 SN - 88-87030-44-8 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Donges, Jonathan A1 - Donner, Reik Volker A1 - Rehfeld, Kira A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Trauth, Martin H. A1 - Kurths, Jürgen T1 - Identification of dynamical transitions in marine palaeoclimate records by recurrence network analysis JF - Nonlinear processes in geophysics N2 - The analysis of palaeoclimate time series is usually affected by severe methodological problems, resulting primarily from non-equidistant sampling and uncertain age models. As an alternative to existing methods of time series analysis, in this paper we argue that the statistical properties of recurrence networks - a recently developed approach - are promising candidates for characterising the system's nonlinear dynamics and quantifying structural changes in its reconstructed phase space as time evolves. In a first order approximation, the results of recurrence network analysis are invariant to changes in the age model and are not directly affected by non-equidistant sampling of the data. Specifically, we investigate the behaviour of recurrence network measures for both paradigmatic model systems with non-stationary parameters and four marine records of long-term palaeoclimate variations. We show that the obtained results are qualitatively robust under changes of the relevant parameters of our method, including detrending, size of the running window used for analysis, and embedding delay. We demonstrate that recurrence network analysis is able to detect relevant regime shifts in synthetic data as well as in problematic geoscientific time series. This suggests its application as a general exploratory tool of time series analysis complementing existing methods. Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-18-545-2011 SN - 1023-5809 VL - 18 IS - 5 SP - 545 EP - 562 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Donges, Jonathan A1 - Donner, Reik Volker A1 - Trauth, Martin H. A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim A1 - Kurths, Jürgen T1 - Nonlinear detection of paleoclimate-variability transitions possibly related to human evolution JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America N2 - Potential paleoclimatic driving mechanisms acting on human evolution present an open problem of cross-disciplinary scientific interest. The analysis of paleoclimate archives encoding the environmental variability in East Africa during the past 5 Ma has triggered an ongoing debate about possible candidate processes and evolutionary mechanisms. In this work, we apply a nonlinear statistical technique, recurrence network analysis, to three distinct marine records of terrigenous dust flux. Our method enables us to identify three epochs with transitions between qualitatively different types of environmental variability in North and East Africa during the (i) Middle Pliocene (3.35-3.15 Ma B. P.), (ii) Early Pleistocene (2.25-1.6 Ma B. P.), and (iii) Middle Pleistocene (1.1-0.7 Ma B. P.). A deeper examination of these transition periods reveals potential climatic drivers, including (i) large-scale changes in ocean currents due to a spatial shift of the Indonesian throughflow in combination with an intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation, (ii) a global reorganization of the atmospheric Walker circulation induced in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean, and (iii) shifts in the dominating temporal variability pattern of glacial activity during the Middle Pleistocene, respectively. A reexamination of the available fossil record demonstrates statistically significant coincidences between the detected transition periods and major steps in hominin evolution. This result suggests that the observed shifts between more regular and more erratic environmental variability may have acted as a trigger for rapid change in the development of humankind in Africa. KW - African climate KW - Plio-Pleistocene KW - climate-driven evolution KW - dynamical transitions KW - nonlinear time series analysis Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1117052108 SN - 0027-8424 VL - 108 IS - 51 SP - 20422 EP - 20427 PB - National Acad. of Sciences CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Donges, Jonathan A1 - Schleussner, C. -F. A1 - Siegmund, Jonatan F. A1 - Donner, Reik Volker T1 - Event coincidence analysis for quantifying statistical interrelationships between event time series JF - European physical journal special topics N2 - Studying event time series is a powerful approach for analyzing the dynamics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of science. In this paper, we describe the method of event coincidence analysis to provide a framework for quantifying the strength, directionality and time lag of statistical interrelationships between event series. Event coincidence analysis allows to formulate and test null hypotheses on the origin of the observed interrelationships including tests based on Poisson processes or, more generally, stochastic point processes with a prescribed inter-event time distribution and other higher-order properties. Applying the framework to country-level observational data yields evidence that flood events have acted as triggers of epidemic outbreaks globally since the 1950s. Facing projected future changes in the statistics of climatic extreme events, statistical techniques such as event coincidence analysis will be relevant for investigating the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2015-50233-y SN - 1951-6355 SN - 1951-6401 VL - 225 SP - 471 EP - 487 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER -