TY  - JOUR
A1  - Merfort, Leon
A1  - Bauer, Nico
A1  - Humpenöder, Florian
A1  - Klein, David
A1  - Strefler, Jessica
A1  - Popp, Alexander
A1  - Luderer, Gunnar
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
T1  - Bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions with sectorally fragmented policies
JF  - Nature climate change
N2  - Controlling bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions is key to exploiting bioenergy for climate change mitigation. However, the effect of different land-use and energy sector policies on specific bioenergy emissions has not been studied so far. Using the global integrated assessment model REMIND-MAgPIE, we derive a biofuel emission factor (EF) for different policy frameworks. We find that a uniform price on emissions from both sectors keeps biofuel emissions at 12 kg CO2 GJ−1. However, without land-use regulation, the EF increases substantially (64 kg CO2 GJ−1 over 80 years, 92 kg CO2 GJ−1 over 30 years). We also find that comprehensive coverage (>90%) of carbon-rich land areas worldwide is key to containing land-use emissions. Pricing emissions indirectly on the level of bioenergy consumption reduces total emissions by cutting bioenergy demand but fails to reduce the average EF. In the absence of comprehensive and timely land-use regulation, bioenergy thus may contribute less to climate change mitigation than assumed previously.
KW  - agriculture
KW  - climate-change mitigation
KW  - energy policy
KW  - energy supply and demand
KW  - environmental economics
Y1  - 2023
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01697-2
SN  - 1758-678X
SN  - 1758-6798
VL  - 13
IS  - 7
SP  - 685
EP  - 692
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Merfort, Leon
A1  - Bauer, Nico
A1  - Humpenöder, Florian
A1  - Klein, David
A1  - Strefler, Jessica
A1  - Popp, Alexander
A1  - Luderer, Gunnar
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
T1  - State of global land regulation inadequate to control biofuel land-use-change emissions
JF  - Nature climate change
N2  - Under current land-use regulation, carbon dioxide emissions from biofuel production exceed those from fossil diesel combustion. Therefore, international agreements need to ensure the effective and globally comprehensive protection of natural land before modern bioenergy can effectively contribute to achieving carbon neutrality.
KW  - agriculture
KW  - climate-change mitigation
KW  - energy policy
KW  - energy supply and demand
KW  - environmental economics
Y1  - 2023
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01711-7
SN  - 1758-678X
SN  - 1758-6798
VL  - 13
IS  - 7
SP  - 610
EP  - 612
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Luderer, Gunnar
A1  - Madeddu, Silvia
A1  - Merfort, Leon
A1  - Ueckerdt, Falko
A1  - Pehl, Michaja
A1  - Pietzcker, Robert C.
A1  - Rottoli, Marianna
A1  - Schreyer, Felix
A1  - Bauer, Nico
A1  - Baumstark, Lavinia
A1  - Bertram, Christoph
A1  - Dirnaichner, Alois
A1  - Humpenöder, Florian
A1  - Levesque, Antoine
A1  - Popp, Alexander
A1  - Rodrigues, Renato
A1  - Strefler, Jessica
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
T1  - Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios
JF  - Nature energy
N2  - Cost degression in photovoltaics, wind-power and battery storage has been faster than previously anticipated. In the future, climate policy to limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C will make carbon-based fuels increasingly scarce and expensive. Here we show that further progress in solar- and wind-power technology along with carbon pricing to reach the Paris Climate targets could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. In combination with demand-side innovation, for instance in e-mobility and heat pumps, this is likely to induce a fundamental transformation of energy systems towards a dominance of electricity-based end uses. In a 1.5 °C scenario with limited availability of bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could account for 66% of final energy by mid-century, three times the current levels and substantially higher than in previous climate policy scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The lower production of bioenergy in our high-electrification scenarios markedly reduces energy-related land and water requirements.
KW  - climate-change mitigation
KW  - energy modelling
KW  - renewable energy
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00937-z
SN  - 2058-7546
N1  - Corrigendum: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01000-1
VL  - 7
IS  - 1
SP  - 32
EP  - 42
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
CY  - London
ER  -