TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Moloney, Kirk A. A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Köchy, Martin A1 - Schwager, Monika T1 - The state of plant population modelling in light of environmental change N2 - Plant population modelling has been around since the 1970s, providing a valuable approach to understanding plant ecology from a mechanistic standpoint. It is surprising then that this area of research has not grown in prominence with respect to other approaches employed in modelling plant systems. In this review, we provide an analysis of the development and role of modelling in the field of plant population biology through an exploration of where it has been, where it is now and, in our opinion, where it should be headed. We focus, in particular, on the role plant population modelling could play in ecological forecasting, an urgent need given current rates of regional and global environmental change. We suggest that a critical element limiting the current application of plant population modelling in environmental research is the trade-off between the necessary resolution and detail required to accurately characterize ecological dynamics pitted against the goal of generality, particularly at broad spatial scales. In addition to suggestions how to overcome the current shortcoming of data on the process-level we discuss two emerging strategies that may offer a way to overcome the described limitation: (1) application of a modern approach to spatial scaling from local processes to broader levels of interaction and (2) plant functional-type modelling. Finally we outline what we believe to be needed in developing these approaches towards a 'science of forecasting'. Y1 - 2008 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ppees.2007.11.004 SN - 1433-8319 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Köchy, Martin A1 - Mathaj, Martin A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Malkinson, Dan T1 - Resilience of stocking capacity to changing climate in arid to Mediterranean landscapes N2 - Small livestock is an important resource for rural human populations in dry climates. How strongly will climate change affect the capacity of the rangeland? We used hierarchical modelling to scale quantitatively the growth of shrubs and annual plants, the main food of sheep and goats, to the landscape extent in the eastern Mediterranean region. Without grazing, productivity increased in a sigmoid way with mean annual precipitation. Grazing reduced productivity more strongly the drier the landscape. At a point just under the stocking capacity of the vegetation, productivity declined precipitously with more intense grazing due to a lack of seed production of annuals. We repeated simulations with precipitation patterns projected by two contrasting IPCC scenarios. Compared to results based on historic patterns, productivity and stocking capacity did not differ in most cases. Thus, grazing intensity remains the stronger impact on landscape productivity in this dry region even in the future. Y1 - 2008 UR - http://www.springerlink.com/content/gj0567116q770036/ U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-008-0048-6 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Köchy, Martin A1 - Mathaj, Martin A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Malkinson, Dan T1 - Resilience of stocking capacity to changing climate in arid to Mediterranean landscapes N2 - Small livestock is an important resource for rural human populations in dry climates. How strongly will climate change affect the capacity of the rangeland? We used hierarchical modelling to scale quantitatively the growth of shrubs and annual plants, the main food of sheep and goats, to the landscape extent in the eastern Mediterranean region. Without grazing, productivity increased in a sigmoid way with mean annual precipitation. Grazing reduced productivity more strongly the drier the landscape. At a point just under the stocking capacity of the vegetation, productivity declined precipitously with more intense grazing due to a lack of seed production of annuals. We repeated simulations with precipitation patterns projected by two contrasting IPCC scenarios. Compared to results based on historic patterns, productivity and stocking capacity did not differ in most cases. Thus, grazing intensity remains the stronger impact on landscape productivity in this dry region even in the future. N2 - Kleinvieh ist eine wichtige Lebensgrundlage für die Landbevölkerung in trockenen Regionen. Wie stark wird sich der Klimawandel auf die Tragfähigkeit der Weideflächen auswirken? Wir benutzten hierarchische Modellierung, um das Wachstum von Sträuchern und einjährigen Kräutern, das wichtigste Futter für Ziegen und Schafe, quantitativ auf die Fläche von Landschaften in der östlichen Mittelmeerregion zu dimensionieren. Die Produktivität ohne Beweidung stieg sigmoidal mit dem mittleren Jahresniederschlag. Je trockener die Landschaft, desto stärker verminderte Beweidung die Produktion. An einem Punkt knapp unter der Tragfähigkeit der Vegetation, sank die Produktion stark mit zunehmender Beweidung, weil die Samenproduktion der Kräuter zu gering war. Wir wiederholten die Simulationen mit Niederschlagsverteilungsmustern gemäß zweier gegensätzlicher IPCC-Szenarien. Zukünftige Produktivität und Tragfähigkeit unterschieden sich in den meisten Fällen nicht von Ergebnissen auf Grund von historischer Niederschlagsverteilung. Allerdings war die zukünftige Produktivität in trockenen Habitaten der semiariden und trocken-mediterranen Regionen niedriger. Somit hat auch in Zukunft die Besatzdichte die größere Auswirkung auf die Produktivität dieser trockenen Landschaft als das Klima. "This abstract is provided by the authors, and is for convenience of the users only. The author certifies that the translation faithfully represents the official version in the language of the journal, which is the published Abstract of record and is the only Abstract to be used for reference and citation." T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - paper 066 KW - topography KW - spatially explicit model KW - climate change KW - Middle East KW - stocking capacity Y1 - 2008 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-18720 ER -