TY - JOUR A1 - Mantzouki, Evanthia A1 - Lurling, Miquel A1 - Fastner, Jutta A1 - Domis, Lisette Nicole de Senerpont A1 - Wilk-Wozniak, Elzbieta A1 - Koreiviene, Judita A1 - Seelen, Laura A1 - Teurlincx, Sven A1 - Verstijnen, Yvon A1 - Krzton, Wojciech A1 - Walusiak, Edward A1 - Karosiene, Jurate A1 - Kasperoviciene, Jurate A1 - Savadova, Ksenija A1 - Vitonyte, Irma A1 - Cillero-Castro, Carmen A1 - Budzynska, Agnieszka A1 - Goldyn, Ryszard A1 - Kozak, Anna A1 - Rosinska, Joanna A1 - Szelag-Wasielewska, Elzbieta A1 - Domek, Piotr A1 - Jakubowska-Krepska, Natalia A1 - Kwasizur, Kinga A1 - Messyasz, Beata A1 - Pelechata, Aleksandra A1 - Pelechaty, Mariusz A1 - Kokocinski, Mikolaj A1 - Garcia-Murcia, Ana A1 - Real, Monserrat A1 - Romans, Elvira A1 - Noguero-Ribes, Jordi A1 - Parreno Duque, David A1 - Fernandez-Moran, Elisabeth A1 - Karakaya, Nusret A1 - Haggqvist, Kerstin A1 - Demir, Nilsun A1 - Beklioglu, Meryem A1 - Filiz, Nur A1 - Levi, Eti E. A1 - Iskin, Ugur A1 - Bezirci, Gizem A1 - Tavsanoglu, Ulku Nihan A1 - Ozhan, Koray A1 - Gkelis, Spyros A1 - Panou, Manthos A1 - Fakioglu, Ozden A1 - Avagianos, Christos A1 - Kaloudis, Triantafyllos A1 - Celik, Kemal A1 - Yilmaz, Mete A1 - Marce, Rafael A1 - Catalan, Nuria A1 - Bravo, Andrea G. A1 - Buck, Moritz A1 - Colom-Montero, William A1 - Mustonen, Kristiina A1 - Pierson, Don A1 - Yang, Yang A1 - Raposeiro, Pedro M. A1 - Goncalves, Vitor A1 - Antoniou, Maria G. A1 - Tsiarta, Nikoletta A1 - McCarthy, Valerie A1 - Perello, Victor C. A1 - Feldmann, Tonu A1 - Laas, Alo A1 - Panksep, Kristel A1 - Tuvikene, Lea A1 - Gagala, Ilona A1 - Mankiewicz-Boczek, Joana A1 - Yagci, Meral Apaydin A1 - Cinar, Sakir A1 - Capkin, Kadir A1 - Yagci, Abdulkadir A1 - Cesur, Mehmet A1 - Bilgin, Fuat A1 - Bulut, Cafer A1 - Uysal, Rahmi A1 - Obertegger, Ulrike A1 - Boscaini, Adriano A1 - Flaim, Giovanna A1 - Salmaso, Nico A1 - Cerasino, Leonardo A1 - Richardson, Jessica A1 - Visser, Petra M. A1 - Verspagen, Jolanda M. H. A1 - Karan, Tunay A1 - Soylu, Elif Neyran A1 - Maraslioglu, Faruk A1 - Napiorkowska-Krzebietke, Agnieszka A1 - Ochocka, Agnieszka A1 - Pasztaleniec, Agnieszka A1 - Antao-Geraldes, Ana M. A1 - Vasconcelos, Vitor A1 - Morais, Joao A1 - Vale, Micaela A1 - Koker, Latife A1 - Akcaalan, Reyhan A1 - Albay, Meric A1 - Maronic, Dubravka Spoljaric A1 - Stevic, Filip A1 - Pfeiffer, Tanja Zuna A1 - Fonvielle, Jeremy Andre A1 - Straile, Dietmar A1 - Rothhaupt, Karl-Otto A1 - Hansson, Lars-Anders A1 - Urrutia-Cordero, Pablo A1 - Blaha, Ludek A1 - Geris, Rodan A1 - Frankova, Marketa A1 - Kocer, Mehmet Ali Turan A1 - Alp, Mehmet Tahir A1 - Remec-Rekar, Spela A1 - Elersek, Tina A1 - Triantis, Theodoros A1 - Zervou, Sevasti-Kiriaki A1 - Hiskia, Anastasia A1 - Haande, Sigrid A1 - Skjelbred, Birger A1 - Madrecka, Beata A1 - Nemova, Hana A1 - Drastichova, Iveta A1 - Chomova, Lucia A1 - Edwards, Christine A1 - Sevindik, Tugba Ongun A1 - Tunca, Hatice A1 - OEnem, Burcin A1 - Aleksovski, Boris A1 - Krstic, Svetislav A1 - Vucelic, Itana Bokan A1 - Nawrocka, Lidia A1 - Salmi, Pauliina A1 - Machado-Vieira, Danielle A1 - de Oliveira, Alinne Gurjao A1 - Delgado-Martin, Jordi A1 - Garcia, David A1 - Cereijo, Jose Luis A1 - Goma, Joan A1 - Trapote, Mari Carmen A1 - Vegas-Vilarrubia, Teresa A1 - Obrador, Biel A1 - Grabowska, Magdalena A1 - Karpowicz, Maciej A1 - Chmura, Damian A1 - Ubeda, Barbara A1 - Angel Galvez, Jose A1 - Ozen, Arda A1 - Christoffersen, Kirsten Seestern A1 - Warming, Trine Perlt A1 - Kobos, Justyna A1 - Mazur-Marzec, Hanna A1 - Perez-Martinez, Carmen A1 - Ramos-Rodriguez, Eloisa A1 - Arvola, Lauri A1 - Alcaraz-Parraga, Pablo A1 - Toporowska, Magdalena A1 - Pawlik-Skowronska, Barbara A1 - Niedzwiecki, Michal A1 - Peczula, Wojciech A1 - Leira, Manel A1 - Hernandez, Armand A1 - Moreno-Ostos, Enrique A1 - Maria Blanco, Jose A1 - Rodriguez, Valeriano A1 - Juan Montes-Perez, Jorge A1 - Palomino, Roberto L. A1 - Rodriguez-Perez, Estela A1 - Carballeira, Rafael A1 - Camacho, Antonio A1 - Picazo, Antonio A1 - Rochera, Carlos A1 - Santamans, Anna C. A1 - Ferriol, Carmen A1 - Romo, Susana A1 - Miguel Soria, Juan A1 - Dunalska, Julita A1 - Sienska, Justyna A1 - Szymanski, Daniel A1 - Kruk, Marek A1 - Kostrzewska-Szlakowska, Iwona A1 - Jasser, Iwona A1 - Zutinic, Petar A1 - Udovic, Marija Gligora A1 - Plenkovic-Moraj, Andelka A1 - Frak, Magdalena A1 - Bankowska-Sobczak, Agnieszka A1 - Wasilewicz, Michal A1 - Ozkan, Korhan A1 - Maliaka, Valentini A1 - Kangro, Kersti A1 - Grossart, Hans-Peter A1 - Paerl, Hans W. A1 - Carey, Cayelan C. A1 - Ibelings, Bas W. T1 - Temperature effects explain continental scale distribution of cyanobacterial toxins JF - Toxins N2 - Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains. KW - microcystin KW - anatoxin KW - cylindrospermopsin KW - temperature KW - direct effects KW - indirect effects KW - spatial distribution KW - European Multi Lake Survey Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/toxins10040156 SN - 2072-6651 VL - 10 IS - 4 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mantzouki, Evanthia A1 - Campbell, James A1 - van Loon, Emiel A1 - Visser, Petra A1 - Konstantinou, Iosif A1 - Antoniou, Maria A1 - Giuliani, Gregory A1 - Machado-Vieira, Danielle A1 - de Oliveira, Alinne Gurjao A1 - Maronic, Dubravka Spoljaric A1 - Stevic, Filip A1 - Pfeiffer, Tanja Zuna A1 - Vucelic, Itana Bokan A1 - Zutinic, Petar A1 - Udovic, Marija Gligora A1 - Plenkovic-Moraj, Andelka A1 - Tsiarta, Nikoletta A1 - Blaha, Ludek A1 - Geris, Rodan A1 - Frankova, Marketa A1 - Christoffersen, Kirsten Seestern A1 - Warming, Trine Perlt A1 - Feldmann, Tonu A1 - Laas, Alo A1 - Panksep, Kristel A1 - Tuvikene, Lea A1 - Kangro, Kersti A1 - Haggqvist, Kerstin A1 - Salmi, Pauliina A1 - Arvola, Lauri A1 - Fastner, Jutta A1 - Straile, Dietmar A1 - Rothhaupt, Karl-Otto A1 - Fonvielle, Jeremy Andre A1 - Grossart, Hans-Peter A1 - Avagianos, Christos A1 - Kaloudis, Triantafyllos A1 - Triantis, Theodoros A1 - Zervou, Sevasti-Kiriaki A1 - Hiskia, Anastasia A1 - Gkelis, Spyros A1 - Panou, Manthos A1 - McCarthy, Valerie A1 - Perello, Victor C. A1 - Obertegger, Ulrike A1 - Boscaini, Adriano A1 - Flaim, Giovanna A1 - Salmaso, Nico A1 - Cerasino, Leonardo A1 - Koreiviene, Judita A1 - Karosiene, Jurate A1 - Kasperoviciene, Jurate A1 - Savadova, Ksenija A1 - Vitonyte, Irma A1 - Haande, Sigrid A1 - Skjelbred, Birger A1 - Grabowska, Magdalena A1 - Karpowicz, Maciej A1 - Chmura, Damian A1 - Nawrocka, Lidia A1 - Kobos, Justyna A1 - Mazur-Marzec, Hanna A1 - Alcaraz-Parraga, Pablo A1 - Wilk-Wozniak, Elzbieta A1 - Krzton, Wojciech A1 - Walusiak, Edward A1 - Gagala, Ilona A1 - Mankiewicz-Boczek, Joana A1 - Toporowska, Magdalena A1 - Pawlik-Skowronska, Barbara A1 - Niedzwiecki, Michal A1 - Peczula, Wojciech A1 - Napiorkowska-Krzebietke, Agnieszka A1 - Dunalska, Julita A1 - Sienska, Justyna A1 - Szymanski, Daniel A1 - Kruk, Marek A1 - Budzynska, Agnieszka A1 - Goldyn, Ryszard A1 - Kozak, Anna A1 - Rosinska, Joanna A1 - Szelag-Wasielewska, Elzbieta A1 - Domek, Piotr A1 - Jakubowska-Krepska, Natalia A1 - Kwasizur, Kinga A1 - Messyasz, Beata A1 - Pelechata, Aleksandra A1 - Pelechaty, Mariusz A1 - Kokocinski, Mikolaj A1 - Madrecka, Beata A1 - Kostrzewska-Szlakowska, Iwona A1 - Frak, Magdalena A1 - Bankowska-Sobczak, Agnieszka A1 - Wasilewicz, Michal A1 - Ochocka, Agnieszka A1 - Pasztaleniec, Agnieszka A1 - Jasser, Iwona A1 - Antao-Geraldes, Ana M. A1 - Leira, Manel A1 - Hernandez, Armand A1 - Vasconcelos, Vitor A1 - Morais, Joao A1 - Vale, Micaela A1 - Raposeiro, Pedro M. A1 - Goncalves, Vitor A1 - Aleksovski, Boris A1 - Krstic, Svetislav A1 - Nemova, Hana A1 - Drastichova, Iveta A1 - Chomova, Lucia A1 - Remec-Rekar, Spela A1 - Elersek, Tina A1 - Delgado-Martin, Jordi A1 - Garcia, David A1 - Luis Cereijo, Jose A1 - Goma, Joan A1 - Carmen Trapote, Mari A1 - Vegas-Vilarrubia, Teresa A1 - Obrador, Biel A1 - Garcia-Murcia, Ana A1 - Real, Monserrat A1 - Romans, Elvira A1 - Noguero-Ribes, Jordi A1 - Parreno Duque, David A1 - Fernandez-Moran, Elisabeth A1 - Ubeda, Barbara A1 - Angel Galvez, Jose A1 - Marce, Rafael A1 - Catalan, Nuria A1 - Perez-Martinez, Carmen A1 - Ramos-Rodriguez, Eloisa A1 - Cillero-Castro, Carmen A1 - Moreno-Ostos, Enrique A1 - Maria Blanco, Jose A1 - Rodriguez, Valeriano A1 - Juan Montes-Perez, Jorge A1 - Palomino, Roberto L. A1 - Rodriguez-Perez, Estela A1 - Carballeira, Rafael A1 - Camacho, Antonio A1 - Picazo, Antonio A1 - Rochera, Carlos A1 - Santamans, Anna C. A1 - Ferriol, Carmen A1 - Romo, Susana A1 - Soria, Juan Miguel A1 - Hansson, Lars-Anders A1 - Urrutia-Cordero, Pablo A1 - Ozen, Arda A1 - Bravo, Andrea G. A1 - Buck, Moritz A1 - Colom-Montero, William A1 - Mustonen, Kristiina A1 - Pierson, Don A1 - Yang, Yang A1 - Verspagen, Jolanda M. H. A1 - Domis, Lisette N. de Senerpont A1 - Seelen, Laura A1 - Teurlincx, Sven A1 - Verstijnen, Yvon A1 - Lurling, Miquel A1 - Maliaka, Valentini A1 - Faassen, Elisabeth J. A1 - Latour, Delphine A1 - Carey, Cayelan C. A1 - Paerl, Hans W. A1 - Torokne, Andrea A1 - Karan, Tunay A1 - Demir, Nilsun A1 - Beklioglu, Meryem A1 - Filiz, Nur A1 - Levi, Eti E. A1 - Iskin, Ugur A1 - Bezirci, Gizem A1 - Tavsanoglu, Ulku Nihan A1 - Celik, Kemal A1 - Ozhan, Koray A1 - Karakaya, Nusret A1 - Kocer, Mehmet Ali Turan A1 - Yilmaz, Mete A1 - Maraslioglu, Faruk A1 - Fakioglu, Ozden A1 - Soylu, Elif Neyran A1 - Yagci, Meral Apaydin A1 - Cinar, Sakir A1 - Capkin, Kadir A1 - Yagci, Abdulkadir A1 - Cesur, Mehmet A1 - Bilgin, Fuat A1 - Bulut, Cafer A1 - Uysal, Rahmi A1 - Koker, Latife A1 - Akcaalan, Reyhan A1 - Albay, Meric A1 - Alp, Mehmet Tahir A1 - Ozkan, Korhan A1 - Sevindik, Tugba Ongun A1 - Tunca, Hatice A1 - Onem, Burcin A1 - Richardson, Jessica A1 - Edwards, Christine A1 - Bergkemper, Victoria A1 - Beirne, Eilish A1 - Cromie, Hannah A1 - Ibelings, Bastiaan W. T1 - Data Descriptor: A European Multi Lake Survey dataset of environmental variables, phytoplankton pigments and cyanotoxins JF - Scientific Data N2 - Under ongoing climate change and increasing anthropogenic activity, which continuously challenge ecosystem resilience, an in-depth understanding of ecological processes is urgently needed. Lakes, as providers of numerous ecosystem services, face multiple stressors that threaten their functioning. Harmful cyanobacterial blooms are a persistent problem resulting from nutrient pollution and climate-change induced stressors, like poor transparency, increased water temperature and enhanced stratification. Consistency in data collection and analysis methods is necessary to achieve fully comparable datasets and for statistical validity, avoiding issues linked to disparate data sources. The European Multi Lake Survey (EMLS) in summer 2015 was an initiative among scientists from 27 countries to collect and analyse lake physical, chemical and biological variables in a fully standardized manner. This database includes in-situ lake variables along with nutrient, pigment and cyanotoxin data of 369 lakes in Europe, which were centrally analysed in dedicated laboratories. Publishing the EMLS methods and dataset might inspire similar initiatives to study across large geographic areas that will contribute to better understanding lake responses in a changing environment. KW - Climate-change ecology KW - Limnology KW - Water resources Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.226 SN - 2052-4463 VL - 5 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - GEN A1 - Mantzouki, Evanthia A1 - Lürling, Miquel A1 - Fastner, Jutta A1 - Domis, Lisette Nicole de Senerpont A1 - Wilk-Woźniak, Elżbieta A1 - Koreiviene, Judita A1 - Seelen, Laura A1 - Teurlincx, Sven A1 - Verstijnen, Yvon A1 - Krztoń, Wojciech A1 - Walusiak, Edward A1 - Karosienė, Jūratė A1 - Kasperovičienė, Jūratė A1 - Savadova, Ksenija A1 - Vitonytė, Irma A1 - Cillero-Castro, Carmen A1 - Budzyńska, Agnieszka A1 - Goldyn, Ryszard A1 - Kozak, Anna A1 - Rosińska, Joanna A1 - Szeląg-Wasielewska, Elżbieta A1 - Domek, Piotr A1 - Jakubowska-Krepska, Natalia A1 - Kwasizur, Kinga A1 - Messyasz, Beata A1 - Pełechata, Aleksandra A1 - Pełechaty, Mariusz A1 - Kokocinski, Mikolaj A1 - García-Murcia, Ana A1 - Real, Monserrat A1 - Romans, Elvira A1 - Noguero-Ribes, Jordi A1 - Duque, David Parreño A1 - Fernández-Morán, Elísabeth A1 - Karakaya, Nusret A1 - Häggqvist, Kerstin A1 - Beklioğlu, Meryem A1 - Filiz, Nur A1 - Levi, Eti E. A1 - Iskin, Uğur A1 - Bezirci, Gizem A1 - Tavşanoğlu, Ülkü Nihan A1 - Özhan, Koray A1 - Gkelis, Spyros A1 - Panou, Manthos A1 - Fakioglu, Özden A1 - Avagianos, Christos A1 - Kaloudis, Triantafyllos A1 - Çelik, Kemal A1 - Yilmaz, Mete A1 - Marcé, Rafael A1 - Catalán, Nuria A1 - Bravo, Andrea G. A1 - Buck, Moritz A1 - Colom-Montero, William A1 - Mustonen, Kristiina A1 - Pierson, Don A1 - Yang, Yang A1 - Raposeiro, Pedro M. A1 - Gonçalves, Vítor A1 - Antoniou, Maria G. A1 - Tsiarta, Nikoletta A1 - McCarthy, Valerie A1 - Perello, Victor C. A1 - Feldmann, Tõnu A1 - Laas, Alo A1 - Panksep, Kristel A1 - Tuvikene, Lea A1 - Gagala, Ilona A1 - Mankiewicz-Boczek, Joana A1 - Yağcı, Meral Apaydın A1 - Çınar, Şakir A1 - Çapkın, Kadir A1 - Yağcı, Abdulkadir A1 - Cesur, Mehmet A1 - Bilgin, Fuat A1 - Bulut, Cafer A1 - Uysal, Rahmi A1 - Obertegger, Ulrike A1 - Boscaini, Adriano A1 - Flaim, Giovanna A1 - Salmaso, Nico A1 - Cerasino, Leonardo A1 - Richardson, Jessica A1 - Visser, Petra M. A1 - Verspagen, Jolanda M. H. A1 - Karan, Tünay A1 - Soylu, Elif Neyran A1 - Maraşlıoğlu, Faruk A1 - Napiórkowska-Krzebietke, Agnieszka A1 - Ochocka, Agnieszka A1 - Pasztaleniec, Agnieszka A1 - Antão-Geraldes, Ana M. A1 - Vasconcelos, Vitor A1 - Morais, João A1 - Vale, Micaela A1 - Köker, Latife A1 - Akçaalan, Reyhan A1 - Albay, Meriç A1 - Maronić, Dubravka Špoljarić A1 - Stević, Filip A1 - Pfeiffer, Tanja Žuna A1 - Fonvielle, Jeremy Andre A1 - Straile, Dietmar A1 - Rothhaupt, Karl-Otto A1 - Hansson, Lars-Anders A1 - Urrutia-Cordero, Pablo A1 - Bláha, Luděk A1 - Geriš, Rodan A1 - Fránková, Markéta A1 - Koçer, Mehmet Ali Turan A1 - Alp, Mehmet Tahir A1 - Remec-Rekar, Spela A1 - Elersek, Tina A1 - Triantis, Theodoros A1 - Zervou, Sevasti-Kiriaki A1 - Hiskia, Anastasia A1 - Haande, Sigrid A1 - Skjelbred, Birger A1 - Madrecka, Beata A1 - Nemova, Hana A1 - Drastichova, Iveta A1 - Chomova, Lucia A1 - Edwards, Christine A1 - Sevindik, Tuğba Ongun A1 - Tunca, Hatice A1 - Önem, Burçin A1 - Aleksovski, Boris A1 - Krstić, Svetislav A1 - Vucelić, Itana Bokan A1 - Nawrocka, Lidia A1 - Salmi, Pauliina A1 - Machado-Vieira, Danielle A1 - Oliveira, Alinne Gurjão De A1 - Delgado-Martín, Jordi A1 - García, David A1 - Cereijo, Jose Luís A1 - Gomà, Joan A1 - Trapote, Mari Carmen A1 - Vegas-Vilarrúbia, Teresa A1 - Obrador, Biel A1 - Grabowska, Magdalena A1 - Karpowicz, Maciej A1 - Chmura, Damian A1 - Úbeda, Bárbara A1 - Gálvez, José Ángel A1 - Özen, Arda A1 - Christoffersen, Kirsten Seestern A1 - Warming, Trine Perlt A1 - Kobos, Justyna A1 - Mazur-Marzec, Hanna A1 - Pérez-Martínez, Carmen A1 - Ramos-Rodríguez, Eloísa A1 - Arvola, Lauri A1 - Alcaraz-Párraga, Pablo A1 - Toporowska, Magdalena A1 - Pawlik-Skowronska, Barbara A1 - Niedźwiecki, Michał A1 - Pęczuła, Wojciech A1 - Leira, Manel A1 - Hernández, Armand A1 - Moreno-Ostos, Enrique A1 - Blanco, José María A1 - Rodríguez, Valeriano A1 - Montes-Pérez, Jorge Juan A1 - Palomino, Roberto L. A1 - Rodríguez-Pérez, Estela A1 - Carballeira, Rafael A1 - Camacho, Antonio A1 - Picazo, Antonio A1 - Rochera, Carlos A1 - Santamans, Anna C. A1 - Ferriol, Carmen A1 - Romo, Susana A1 - Soria, Juan Miguel A1 - Dunalska, Julita A1 - Sieńska, Justyna A1 - Szymański, Daniel A1 - Kruk, Marek A1 - Kostrzewska-Szlakowska, Iwona A1 - Jasser, Iwona A1 - Žutinić, Petar A1 - Udovič, Marija Gligora A1 - Plenković-Moraj, Anđelka A1 - Frąk, Magdalena A1 - Bańkowska-Sobczak, Agnieszka A1 - Wasilewicz, Michał A1 - Özkan, Korhan A1 - Maliaka, Valentini A1 - Kangro, Kersti A1 - Grossart, Hans-Peter A1 - Paerl, Hans W. A1 - Carey, Cayelan C. A1 - Ibelings, Bas W. T1 - Temperature effects explain continental scale distribution of cyanobacterial toxins T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1105 KW - microcystin KW - anatoxin KW - cylindrospermopsin KW - temperature KW - direct effects KW - indirect effects KW - spatial distribution KW - European Multi Lake Survey Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-427902 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1105 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - de Araujo, Jose-Carlos A1 - Batalla Villanueva, Ramon J. A1 - Costa, Alexandre Cunha A1 - Delgado, José Miguel Martins A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Förster, Saskia A1 - Guentner, Andreas A1 - Lopez-Tarazon, José Andrés A1 - Mamede, George Leite A1 - Medeiros, Pedro Henrique Augusto A1 - Mueller, Eva A1 - Vericat, Damia T1 - Process-based modelling of erosion, sediment transport and reservoir siltation in mesoscale semi-arid catchments JF - Journal of soils and sediments : protection, risk assessment and remediation N2 - To support scientifically sound water management in dryland environments a modelling system has been developed for the quantitative assessment of water and sediment fluxes in catchments, transport in the river system, and retention in reservoirs. The spatial scale of interest is the mesoscale because this is the scale most relevant for management of water and land resources. This modelling system comprises process-oriented hydrological components tailored for dryland characteristics coupled with components comprising hillslope erosion, sediment transport and reservoir deposition processes. The spatial discretization is hierarchically designed according to a multi-scale concept to account for particular relevant process scales. The non-linear and partly intermittent run-off generation and sediment dynamics are dealt with by accounting for connectivity phenomena at the intersections of landscape compartments. The modelling system has been developed by means of data from nested research catchments in NE-Spain and in NE-Brazil. In the semi-arid NE of Brazil sediment retention along the topography is the main process for sediment retention at all scales, i.e. the sediment delivery is transport limited. This kind of deposition retains roughly 50 to 60 % of eroded sediment, maintaining a similar deposition proportion in all spatial scales investigated. On the other hand, the sediment retained in reservoirs is clearly related to the scale, increasing with catchment area. With increasing area, there are more reservoirs, increasing the possibility of deposition. Furthermore, the area increase also promotes an increase in flow volume, favouring the construction of larger reservoirs, which generally overflow less frequently and retain higher sediment fractions. The second example comprises a highly dynamic Mediterranean catchment in NE-Spain with nested sub-catchments and reveals the full dynamics of hydrological, erosion and deposition features. The run-off modelling performed well with only some overestimation during low-flow periods due to the neglect of water losses along the river. The simulated peaks in sediment flux are reproduced well, while low-flow sediment transport is less well captured, due to the disregard of sediment remobilization in the riverbed during low flow. This combined observation and modelling study deepened the understanding of hydro-sedimentological systems characterized by flashy run-off generation and by erosion and sediment transport pulses through the different landscape compartments. The connectivity between the different landscape compartments plays a very relevant role, regarding both the total mass of water and sediment transport and the transport time through the catchment. KW - Connectivity KW - Deposition KW - Erosion KW - Modelling KW - Sediment transfer KW - Semi-arid Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11368-014-0994-1 SN - 1439-0108 SN - 1614-7480 VL - 14 IS - 12 SP - 2001 EP - 2018 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - GEN A1 - Delgado, José Miguel Martins A1 - Voss, Sebastian A1 - Bürger, Gerd A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef A1 - Murawski, Aline A1 - Rodrigues Pereira, José Marcelo A1 - Martins, Eduardo A1 - Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco A1 - Francke, Till T1 - Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeastern Brazil BT - verification of six hydro-meteorological forecast products T2 - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences N2 - A set of seasonal drought forecast models was assessed and verified for the Jaguaribe River in semiarid northeastern Brazil. Meteorological seasonal forecasts were provided by the operational forecasting system used at FUNCEME (Ceará’s research foundation for meteorology)and by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Three downscaling approaches (empirical quantile mapping, extended downscaling and weather pattern classification) were tested and combined with the models in hindcast mode for the period 1981 to 2014. The forecast issue time was January and the forecast period was January to June. Hydrological drought indices were obtained by fitting a multivariate linear regression to observations. In short, it was possible to obtain forecasts for (a) monthly precipitation,(b) meteorological drought indices, and (c) hydrological drought indices. The skill of the forecasting systems was evaluated with regard to root mean square error (RMSE), the Brier skill score (BSS) and the relative operating characteristic skill score (ROCSS). The tested forecasting products showed similar performance in the analyzed metrics. Forecasts of monthly precipitation had little or no skill considering RMSE and mostly no skill with BSS. A similar picture was seen when forecasting meteorological drought indices: low skill regarding RMSE and BSS and significant skill when discriminating hit rate and false alarm rate given by the ROCSS (forecasting drought events of, e.g., SPEI1 showed a ROCSS of around 0.5). Regarding the temporal variation of the forecast skill of the meteorological indices, it was greatest for April, when compared to the remaining months of the rainy season, while the skill of reservoir volume forecasts decreased with lead time. This work showed that a multi-model ensemble can forecast drought events of timescales relevant to water managers in northeastern Brazil with skill. But no or little skill could be found in the forecasts of monthly precipitation or drought indices of lower scales, like SPI1. Both this work and those here revisited showed that major steps forward are needed in forecasting the rainy season in northeastern Brazil. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 476 KW - Hydrological drought KW - River-Basin KW - Model KW - Patterns KW - Precipitation KW - Variability KW - Nordeste Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418461 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Delgado, José Miguel Martins A1 - Voss, Sebastian A1 - Bürger, Gerd A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef A1 - Murawski, Aline A1 - Rodrigues Pereira, José Marcelo A1 - Martins, Eduardo A1 - Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco A1 - Francke, Till T1 - Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeastern Brazil BT - verification of six hydro-meteorological forecast products JF - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences N2 - A set of seasonal drought forecast models was assessed and verified for the Jaguaribe River in semiarid northeastern Brazil. Meteorological seasonal forecasts were provided by the operational forecasting system used at FUNCEME (Ceará’s research foundation for meteorology)and by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Three downscaling approaches (empirical quantile mapping, extended downscaling and weather pattern classification) were tested and combined with the models in hindcast mode for the period 1981 to 2014. The forecast issue time was January and the forecast period was January to June. Hydrological drought indices were obtained by fitting a multivariate linear regression to observations. In short, it was possible to obtain forecasts for (a) monthly precipitation,(b) meteorological drought indices, and (c) hydrological drought indices. The skill of the forecasting systems was evaluated with regard to root mean square error (RMSE), the Brier skill score (BSS) and the relative operating characteristic skill score (ROCSS). The tested forecasting products showed similar performance in the analyzed metrics. Forecasts of monthly precipitation had little or no skill considering RMSE and mostly no skill with BSS. A similar picture was seen when forecasting meteorological drought indices: low skill regarding RMSE and BSS and significant skill when discriminating hit rate and false alarm rate given by the ROCSS (forecasting drought events of, e.g., SPEI1 showed a ROCSS of around 0.5). Regarding the temporal variation of the forecast skill of the meteorological indices, it was greatest for April, when compared to the remaining months of the rainy season, while the skill of reservoir volume forecasts decreased with lead time. This work showed that a multi-model ensemble can forecast drought events of timescales relevant to water managers in northeastern Brazil with skill. But no or little skill could be found in the forecasts of monthly precipitation or drought indices of lower scales, like SPI1. Both this work and those here revisited showed that major steps forward are needed in forecasting the rainy season in northeastern Brazil. KW - Hydrological drought KW - River-Basin KW - Model KW - Patterns KW - Precipitation KW - Variability KW - Nordeste Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5041-2018 SN - 1027-5606 SN - 1607-7938 VL - 22 IS - 9 SP - 5041 EP - 5056 PB - Copernicus Publ. CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Greene, Chad A. A1 - Thirumalai, Kaustubh A1 - Kearney, Kelly A. A1 - Delgado, Jose Miguel Martins A1 - Schwanghart, Wolfgang A1 - Wolfenbarger, Natalie S. A1 - Thyng, Kristen M. A1 - Gwyther, David E. A1 - Gardner, Alex S. A1 - Blankenship, Donald D. T1 - The Climate Data Toolbox for MATLAB JF - Geochemistry, geophysics, geosystems N2 - Climate science is highly interdisciplinary by nature, so understanding interactions between Earth processes inherently warrants the use of analytical software that can operate across the disciplines of Earth science. Toward this end, we present the Climate Data Toolbox for MATLAB, which contains more than 100 functions that span the major climate-related disciplines of Earth science. The toolbox enables streamlined, entirely scriptable workflows that are intuitive to write and easy to share. Included are functions to evaluate uncertainty, perform matrix operations, calculate climate indices, and generate common data displays. Documentation is presented pedagogically, with thorough explanations of how each function works and tutorials showing how the toolbox can be used to replicate results of published studies. As a well-tested, well-documented platform for interdisciplinary collaborations, the Climate Data Toolbox for MATLAB aims to reduce time spent writing low-level code, let researchers focus on physics rather than coding and encourage more efficacious code sharing. Plain Language Summary This article describes a collection of computer code that has recently been released to help scientists analyze many types of Earth science data. The code in this toolbox makes it easy to investigate things like global warming, El Nino, or other major climate-related processes such as how winds affect ocean circulation. Although the toolbox was designed to be used by expert climate scientists, its instruction manual is well written, and beginners may be able to learn a great deal about coding and Earth science, simply by following along with the provided examples. The toolbox is intended to help scientists save time, help them ensure their analysis is accurate, and make it easy for other scientists to repeat the results of previous studies. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GC008392 SN - 1525-2027 VL - 20 IS - 7 SP - 3774 EP - 3781 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - THES A1 - Delgado, Jose Miguel Martins T1 - Explaning change in flood hazard in the Mekong river : the hypothesis of nonstationary variance Y1 - 2013 CY - Potsdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Soliveres, Santiago A1 - Maestre, Fernando T. A1 - Ulrich, Werner A1 - Manning, Peter A1 - Boch, Steffen A1 - Bowker, Matthew A. A1 - Prati, Daniel A1 - Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel A1 - Quero, Jose L. A1 - Schöning, Ingo A1 - Gallardo, Antonio A1 - Weisser, Wolfgang W. A1 - Müller, Jörg A1 - Socher, Stephanie A. A1 - Garcia-Gomez, Miguel A1 - Ochoa, Victoria A1 - Schulze, Ernst-Detlef A1 - Fischer, Markus A1 - Allan, Eric T1 - Intransitive competition is widespread in plant communities and maintains their species richness JF - Ecology letters N2 - Intransitive competition networks, those in which there is no single best competitor, may ensure species coexistence. However, their frequency and importance in maintaining diversity in real-world ecosystems remain unclear. We used two large data sets from drylands and agricultural grasslands to assess: (1) the generality of intransitive competition, (2) intransitivity-richness relationships and (3) effects of two major drivers of biodiversity loss (aridity and land-use intensification) on intransitivity and species richness. Intransitive competition occurred in >65% of sites and was associated with higher species richness. Intransitivity increased with aridity, partly buffering its negative effects on diversity, but was decreased by intensive land use, enhancing its negative effects on diversity. These contrasting responses likely arise because intransitivity is promoted by temporal heterogeneity, which is enhanced by aridity but may decline with land-use intensity. We show that intransitivity is widespread in nature and increases diversity, but it can be lost with environmental homogenisation. KW - Aridity KW - biodiversity KW - coexistence KW - drylands KW - land use KW - mesic grasslands KW - rock-paper-scissors game Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12456 SN - 1461-023X SN - 1461-0248 VL - 18 IS - 8 SP - 790 EP - 798 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Swierczynski, Tina A1 - Lauterbach, Stefan A1 - Dulski, Peter A1 - Delgado, Jose Miguel Martins A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Brauer, Achim T1 - Mid- to late holocene flood frequency changes in the northeastern Alps as recorded in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee (Upper Austria) JF - Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal N2 - Annually laminated (varved) lake sediments with intercalated detrital layers resulting from sedimentary input by runoff events are ideal archives to establish precisely dated records of past extreme runoff events. In this study, the mid- to late Holocene varved sediments of Lake Mondsee (Upper Austria) were analysed by combining sedimentological, geophysical and geochemical methods. This approach allows to distinguish two types of detrital layers related to different types of extreme runoff events (floods and debris flows) and to detect changes in flood activity during the last 7100 years. In total, 271 flood and 47 debris flow layers, deposited during spring and summer, were identified, which cluster in 18 main flood episodes (FE 1-18) with durations of 30-50 years each. These main flood periods occurred during the Neolithic (7100-7050 vyr BP and 6470-4450 vyr BP), the late Bronze Age and the early Iron Age (3300-3250 and 2800-2750 vyr BP), the late Iron Age (2050-2000 vyr BP), throughout the Dark Ages Cold Period (1500-1200 vyr BP), and at the end of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age (810-430 vyr BP). Summer flood episodes in Lake Mondsee are generally more abundant during the last 1500 years, often coinciding with major advances of Alpine glaciers. Prior to 1500 vyr BP, spring/summer floods and debris flows are generally less frequent, indicating a lower number of intense rainfall events that triggered erosion. In comparison with the increase of late Holocene flood activity in western and northwestern (NW) Europe, commencing already as early as 2800 yr BP, the hydro-meteorological shift in the Lake Mondsee region occurred much later. These time lags in the onset of increased hydrological activity might be either due to regional differences in atmospheric circulation pattern or to the sensitivity of the individual flood archives. The Lake Mondsee sediments represent the first precisely dated and several millennia long summer flood record for the northeastern (NE) Alps, a key region at the climatic boundary of Atlantic, Mediterranean and East European air masses, aiding a better understanding of regional and seasonal peculiarities of flood occurrence under changing climate conditions. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. KW - Varved lake sediments KW - Detrital layers KW - mu RF KW - Microfacies KW - Palaeofloods KW - Flood frequency Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.08.018 SN - 0277-3791 VL - 80 SP - 78 EP - 90 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. A1 - Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten A1 - Baldi, M. A1 - Becker, Andrew C. A1 - Bichet, A. A1 - Bloeschl, G. A1 - Bouwer, Laurens M. A1 - Brauer, Achim A1 - Cioffi, F. A1 - Delgado, Jose Miguel Martins A1 - Gocht, M. A1 - Guzzetti, F. A1 - Harrigan, S. A1 - Hirschboeck, K. A1 - Kilsby, C. A1 - Kron, W. A1 - Kwon, H. -H. A1 - Lall, U. A1 - Merz, R. A1 - Nissen, K. A1 - Salvatti, P. A1 - Swierczynski, Tina A1 - Ulbrich, U. A1 - Viglione, A. A1 - Ward, P. J. A1 - Weiler, M. A1 - Wilhelm, B. A1 - Nied, Manuela T1 - Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management JF - Natural hazards and earth system sciences N2 - Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction of local, catchment-specific characteristics, such as meteorology, topography and geology. These traditional views have been beneficial, but they have a narrow framing. In this paper we contrast traditional views with broader perspectives that are emerging from an improved understanding of the climatic context of floods. We come to the following conclusions: (1) extending the traditional system boundaries (local catchment, recent decades, hydrological/hydraulic processes) opens up exciting possibilities for better understanding and improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. (2) Statistical approaches in flood estimation need to be complemented by the search for the causal mechanisms and dominant processes in the atmosphere, catchment and river system that leave their fingerprints on flood characteristics. (3) Natural climate variability leads to time-varying flood characteristics, and this variation may be partially quantifiable and predictable, with the perspective of dynamic, climate-informed flood risk management. (4) Efforts are needed to fully account for factors that contribute to changes in all three risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and to better understand the interactions between society and floods. (5) Given the global scale and societal importance, we call for the organization of an international multidisciplinary collaboration and data-sharing initiative to further understand the links between climate and flooding and to advance flood research. Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014 SN - 1561-8633 VL - 14 IS - 7 SP - 1921 EP - 1942 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Nguyen Nghia Hung, A1 - Delgado, José Miguel Martins A1 - Guentner, Andreas A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Bardossy, Andras A1 - Apel, Heiko T1 - Sedimentation in the floodplains of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam Part II: deposition and erosion JF - Hydrological processes N2 - Deposition and erosion play a key role in the determination of the sediment budget of a river basin, as well as for floodplain sedimentation. Floodplain sedimentation, in turn, is a relevant factor for the design of flood protection measures, productivity of agro-ecosystems, and for ecological rehabilitation plans. In the Mekong Delta, erosion and deposition are important factors for geomorphological processes like the compensation of deltaic subsidence as well as for agricultural productivity. Floodplain deposition is also counteracting the increasing climate change induced hazard by sea level rise in the delta. Despite this importance, a sediment database of the Mekong Delta is lacking, and the knowledge about erosion and deposition processes is limited. In the Vietnamese part of the Delta, the annually flooded natural floodplains have been replaced by a dense system of channels, dikes, paddy fields, and aquaculture ponds, resulting in floodplain compartments protected by ring dikes. The agricultural productivity depends on the sediment and associated nutrient input to the floodplains by the annual floods. However, no quantitative information regarding their sediment trapping efficiency has been reported yet. The present study investigates deposition and erosion based on intensive field measurements in three consecutive years (2008, 2009, and 2010). Optical backscatter sensors are used in combination with sediment traps for interpreting deposition and erosion processes in different locations. In our study area, the mean calculated deposition rate is 6.86kg/m(2) (approximate to 6mm/year). The key parameters for calculating erosion and deposition are estimated, i.e. the critical bed shear stress for deposition and erosion and the surface constant erosion rate. The bulk of the floodplain sediment deposition is found to occur during the initial stage of floodplain inundation. This finding has direct implications on the operation of sluice gates in order to optimize sediment input and distribution in the floodplains. KW - Mekong delta KW - sediment dynamics KW - deposition KW - erosion KW - floodplain sedimentation Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9855 SN - 0885-6087 SN - 1099-1085 VL - 28 IS - 7 SP - 3145 EP - 3160 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Nguyen Nghia Hung, A1 - Delgado, José Miguel Martins A1 - Güntner, Andreas A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Bardossy, Andras A1 - Apel, Heiko T1 - Sedimentation in the floodplains of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Part I: suspended sediment dynamics JF - Hydrological processes N2 - Suspended sediment is the primary source for a sustainable agro-ecosystem in the Mekong Delta by providing nutrient input for the subsequent cropping season. In addition, the suspended sediment concentration (SSC) plays an important role in the erosion and deposition processes in the Delta; that is, it influences the morphologic development and may counteract the deltaic subsidence and sea level rise. Despite this importance, little is known about the dynamics of suspended sediment in the floodplains of the Mekong Delta. In particular, quantitative analyses are lacking mainly because of data scarcity with respect to the inundation processes in the floodplains. In 2008, therefore, a comprehensive in situ system to monitor the dynamics of suspended sediment in a study area located in the Plain of Reeds was established, aiming at the characterization and quantification of suspended sediment dynamics in the deeply inundated parts of the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta. The monitoring system was equipped with seven water quality-monitoring stations. They have a robust design and autonomous power supply suitable for operation on inundated floodplains, enabling the collection of reliable data over a long period of time with a high temporal resolution. The data analysis shows that the general seasonal dynamics of suspended sediment transport in the Delta is controlled by two main mechanisms: the flood wave of the Mekong River and the tidal backwater influences from the coast. In the channel network, SSC decreases exponentially with distance from the Mekong River. The anthropogenic influence on SSC could also be identified for two periods: at the start of the floodplain inundation and at the end of the flood period, when subsequent paddy rice crops are prepared. Based on the results, we recommend an operation scheme for the sluice gates, which intends to distribute the sediment and thus the nutrients equally over the floodplain. KW - Mekong Delta KW - floodplain KW - suspended sediment KW - sediment dynamics KW - floodplain sedimentation Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9856 SN - 0885-6087 SN - 1099-1085 VL - 28 IS - 7 SP - 3132 EP - 3144 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Delgado, Jose Miguel Martins A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Apel, Heiko T1 - Projecting flood hazard under climate change: an alternative approach to model chains JF - Natural hazards and earth system sciences N2 - Flood hazard projections under climate change are typically derived by applying model chains consisting of the following elements: "emission scenario - global climate model - downscaling, possibly including bias correction hydrological model - flood frequency analysis". To date, this approach yields very uncertain results, due to the difficulties of global and regional climate models to represent precipitation. The implementation of such model chains requires major efforts, and their complexity is high. We propose for the Mekong River an alternative approach which is based on a shortened model chain: "emission scenario - global climate model - non-stationary flood frequency model". The underlying idea is to use a link between the Western Pacific monsoon and local flood characteristics: the variance of the monsoon drives a non-stationary flood frequency model, yielding a direct estimate of flood probabilities. This approach bypasses the uncertain precipitation, since the monsoon variance is derived from large-scale wind fields which are better represented by climate models. The simplicity of the monsoon-flood link allows deriving large ensembles of flood projections under climate change. We conclude that this is a worthwhile, complementary approach to the typical model chains in catchments where a substantial link between climate and floods is found. Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1579-2014 SN - 1561-8633 VL - 14 IS - 6 SP - 1579 EP - 1589 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pilz, Tobias A1 - Delgado, José Miguel Martins A1 - Voss, Sebastian A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Cunha Costa, Alexandre A1 - Martins, Eduardo A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil BT - what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model? JF - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences N2 - The semiarid northeast of Brazil is one of the most densely populated dryland regions in the world and recurrently affected by severe droughts. Thus, reliable seasonal forecasts of streamflow and reservoir storage are of high value for water managers. Such forecasts can be generated by applying either hydrological models representing underlying processes or statistical relationships exploiting correlations among meteorological and hydrological variables. This work evaluates and compares the performances of seasonal reservoir storage forecasts derived by a process-based hydrological model and a statistical approach. Driven by observations, both models achieve similar simulation accuracies. In a hindcast experiment, however, the accuracy of estimating regional reservoir storages was considerably lower using the process-based hydrological model, whereas the resolution and reliability of drought event predictions were similar by both approaches. Further investigations regarding the deficiencies of the process-based model revealed a significant influence of antecedent wetness conditions and a higher sensitivity of model prediction performance to rainfall forecast quality. Within the scope of this study, the statistical model proved to be the more straightforward approach for predictions of reservoir level and drought events at regionally and monthly aggregated scales. However, for forecasts at finer scales of space and time or for the investigation of underlying processes, the costly initialisation and application of a process-based model can be worthwhile. Furthermore, the application of innovative data products, such as remote sensing data, and operational model correction methods, like data assimilation, may allow for an enhanced exploitation of the advanced capabilities of process-based hydrological models. KW - Water Availability KW - Uncertainty Processor KW - Forecasting Framework KW - Sediment Transport KW - Reservoir Networks KW - Jaguaribe Basin KW - Climate KW - Precipitation KW - Nordeste KW - Connectivity Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1951-2019 SN - 1027-5606 SN - 1607-7938 VL - 23 SP - 1951 EP - 1971 PB - Copernicus Publications CY - Göttingen ER - TY - GEN A1 - Pilz, Tobias A1 - Delgado, José Miguel Martins A1 - Voss, Sebastian A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Cunha Costa, Alexandre A1 - Martins, Eduardo A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil BT - what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model? T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The semiarid northeast of Brazil is one of the most densely populated dryland regions in the world and recurrently affected by severe droughts. Thus, reliable seasonal forecasts of streamflow and reservoir storage are of high value for water managers. Such forecasts can be generated by applying either hydrological models representing underlying processes or statistical relationships exploiting correlations among meteorological and hydrological variables. This work evaluates and compares the performances of seasonal reservoir storage forecasts derived by a process-based hydrological model and a statistical approach. Driven by observations, both models achieve similar simulation accuracies. In a hindcast experiment, however, the accuracy of estimating regional reservoir storages was considerably lower using the process-based hydrological model, whereas the resolution and reliability of drought event predictions were similar by both approaches. Further investigations regarding the deficiencies of the process-based model revealed a significant influence of antecedent wetness conditions and a higher sensitivity of model prediction performance to rainfall forecast quality. Within the scope of this study, the statistical model proved to be the more straightforward approach for predictions of reservoir level and drought events at regionally and monthly aggregated scales. However, for forecasts at finer scales of space and time or for the investigation of underlying processes, the costly initialisation and application of a process-based model can be worthwhile. Furthermore, the application of innovative data products, such as remote sensing data, and operational model correction methods, like data assimilation, may allow for an enhanced exploitation of the advanced capabilities of process-based hydrological models. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 702 KW - Water Availability KW - Uncertainty Processor KW - Forecasting Framework KW - Sediment Transport KW - Reservoir Networks KW - Jaguaribe Basin KW - Climate KW - Precipitation KW - Nordeste KW - Connectivity Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-427950 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 702 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ahnen, M. L. A1 - Ansoldi, S. A1 - Antonelli, L. A. A1 - Arcaro, C. A1 - Babic, A. A1 - Banerjee, B. A1 - Bangale, P. A1 - Barres de Almeida, U. A1 - Barrio, J. A. A1 - Gonzalez, J. Becerra A1 - Bednarek, W. A1 - Bernardini, E. A1 - Berti, A. A1 - Bhattacharyya, W. A1 - Blanch, O. A1 - Bonnoli, G. A1 - Carosi, R. A1 - Carosi, A. A1 - Chatterjee, A. A1 - Colak, S. M. A1 - Colin, P. A1 - Colombo, E. A1 - Contreras, J. L. A1 - Cortina, J. A1 - Covino, S. A1 - Cumani, P. A1 - Da Vela, P. A1 - Dazzi, F. A1 - De Angelis, A. A1 - De Lotto, B. A1 - Delfino, M. A1 - Delgado, Jose Miguel Martins A1 - Di Pierro, F. A1 - Doert, M. A1 - Dominguez, A. A1 - Prester, D. Dominis A1 - Doro, M. A1 - Glawion, D. Eisenacher A1 - Engelkemeier, M. A1 - Ramazani, V. Fallah A1 - Fernandez-Barral, A. A1 - Fidalgo, D. A1 - Fonseca, M. V. A1 - Font, L. A1 - Fruck, C. A1 - Galindo, D. A1 - Lopez, R. J. Garcia A1 - Garczarczyk, M. A1 - Gaug, M. A1 - Giammaria, P. A1 - Godinovic, N. A1 - Gora, D. A1 - Guberman, D. A1 - Hadasch, D. A1 - Hahn, A. A1 - Hassan, T. A1 - Hayashida, M. A1 - Herrera, J. A1 - Hose, J. A1 - Hrupec, D. A1 - Ishio, K. A1 - Konno, Y. A1 - Kubo, H. A1 - Kushida, J. A1 - Kuvezdic, D. A1 - Lelas, D. A1 - Lindfors, E. A1 - Lombardi, S. A1 - Longo, F. A1 - Lopez, M. A1 - Maggio, C. A1 - Majumdar, P. A1 - Makariev, M. A1 - Maneva, G. A1 - Manganaro, M. A1 - Maraschi, L. A1 - Mariotti, M. A1 - Martinez, M. A1 - Mazin, D. A1 - Menzel, U. A1 - Minev, M. A1 - Miranda, J. M. A1 - Mirzoyan, R. A1 - Moralejo, A. A1 - Moreno, V. A1 - Moretti, E. A1 - Nagayoshi, T. A1 - Neustroev, V. A1 - Niedzwiecki, A. A1 - Nievas Rosillo, M. A1 - Nigro, C. A1 - Nilsson, K. A1 - Ninci, D. A1 - Nishijima, K. A1 - Noda, K. A1 - Nogues, L. A1 - Paiano, S. A1 - Palacio, J. A1 - Paneque, D. A1 - Paoletti, R. A1 - Paredes, J. M. A1 - Pedaletti, G. A1 - Peresano, M. A1 - Perri, L. A1 - Persic, M. A1 - Moroni, P. G. Prada A1 - Prandini, E. A1 - Puljak, I. A1 - Garcia, J. R. A1 - Reichardt, I. A1 - Ribo, M. A1 - Rico, J. A1 - Righi, C. A1 - Rugliancich, A. A1 - Saito, T. A1 - Satalecka, K. A1 - Schroeder, S. A1 - Schweizer, T. A1 - Shore, S. N. A1 - Sitarek, J. A1 - Snidaric, I. A1 - Sobczynska, D. A1 - Stamerra, A. A1 - Strzys, M. A1 - Suric, T. A1 - Takalo, L. A1 - Tavecchio, F. A1 - Temnikov, P. A1 - Terzic, T. A1 - Teshima, M. A1 - Torres-Alba, N. A1 - Treves, A. A1 - Tsujimoto, S. A1 - Vanzo, G. A1 - Vazquez Acosta, M. A1 - Vovk, I. A1 - Ward, J. E. A1 - Will, M. A1 - Zaric, D. A1 - Arbet-Engels, A. A1 - Baack, D. A1 - Balbo, M. 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A. A1 - Strigachev, A. A1 - Sadun, A. C. T1 - Extreme HBL behavior of Markarian 501 during 2012 JF - Astronomy and astrophysics : an international weekly journal / European Southern Observatory (ESO) N2 - Aims. We aim to characterize the multiwavelength emission from Markarian 501 (Mrk 501), quantify the energy-dependent variability, study the potential multiband correlations, and describe the temporal evolution of the broadband emission within leptonic theoretical scenarios. Methods. We organized a multiwavelength campaign to take place between March and July of 2012. Excellent temporal coverage was obtained with more than 25 instruments, including the MAGIC, FACT and VERITAS Cherenkov telescopes, the instruments on board the Swift and Fermi spacecraft, and the telescopes operated by the GASP-WEBT collaboration. Results. Mrk 501 showed a very high energy (VHE) gamma-ray flux above 0.2 TeV of similar to 0.5 times the Crab Nebula flux (CU) for most of the campaign. The highest activity occurred on 2012 June 9, when the VHE flux was similar to 3 CU, and the peak of the high-energy spectral component was found to be at similar to 2 TeV. Both the X-ray and VHE gamma-ray spectral slopes were measured to be extremely hard, with spectral indices <2 during most of the observing campaign, regardless of the X-ray and VHE flux. This study reports the hardest Mrk 501 VHE spectra measured to date. The fractional variability was found to increase with energy, with the highest variability occurring at VHE. Using the complete data set, we found correlation between the X-ray and VHE bands; however, if the June 9 flare is excluded, the correlation disappears (significance <3 sigma) despite the existence of substantial variability in the X-ray and VHE bands throughout the campaign. Conclusions. The unprecedentedly hard X-ray and VHE spectra measured imply that their low- and high-energy components peaked above 5 keV and 0.5 TeV, respectively, during a large fraction of the observing campaign, and hence that Mrk 501 behaved like an extreme high-frequency-peaked blazar (EHBL) throughout the 2012 observing season. This suggests that being an EHBL may not be a permanent characteristic of a blazar, but rather a state which may change over time. The data set acquired shows that the broadband spectral energy distribution (SED) of Mrk 501, and its transient evolution, is very complex, requiring, within the framework of synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) models, various emission regions for a satisfactory description. Nevertheless the one-zone SSC scenario can successfully describe the segments of the SED where most energy is emitted, with a significant correlation between the electron energy density and the VHE gamma-ray activity, suggesting that most of the variability may be explained by the injection of high-energy electrons. The one-zone SSC scenario used reproduces the behavior seen between the measured X-ray and VHE gamma-ray fluxes, and predicts that the correlation becomes stronger with increasing energy of the X-rays. KW - astroparticle physics KW - acceleration of particles KW - radiation mechanisms: non-thermal KW - BL Lacertae objects: general KW - BL Lacertae objects: individual: Mrk501 Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201833704 SN - 1432-0746 VL - 620 PB - EDP Sciences CY - Les Ulis ER -