TY - GEN A1 - Laudan, Jonas A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette T1 - Flash floods versus river floods BT - a comparison of psychological impacts and implications for precautionary behaviour T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - River floods are among the most damaging natural hazards that frequently occur in Germany. Flooding causes high economic losses and impacts many residents. In 2016, several southern German municipalities were hit by flash floods after unexpectedly severe heavy rainfall, while in 2013 widespread river flooding had occurred. This study investigates and compares the psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods and potential consequences for precautionary behaviour. Data were collected using computer-aided telephone interviews that were conducted among flood-affected households around 9 months after each damaging event. This study applies Bayesian statistics and negative binomial regressions to test the suitability of psychological indicators to predict the precaution motivation of individuals. The results show that it is not the particular flood type but rather the severity and local impacts of the event that are crucial for the different, and potentially negative, impacts on mental health. According to the used data, however, predictions of the individual precaution motivation should not be based on the derived psychological indicators – i.e. coping appraisal, threat appraisal, burden and evasion – since their explanatory power was generally low and results are, for the most part, non-significant. Only burden reveals a significant positive relation to planned precaution regarding weak flash floods. In contrast to weak flash floods and river floods, the perceived threat of strong flash floods is significantly lower although feelings of burden and lower coping appraisals are more pronounced. Further research is needed to better include psychological assessment procedures and to focus on alternative data sources regarding floods and the connected precaution motivation of affected residents. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 968 KW - private households KW - risk perceptions KW - extreme rainfall KW - health KW - mitigation KW - Germany KW - people KW - damage KW - preparedness KW - residents Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-473974 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 968 SP - 999 EP - 1023 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Laudan, Jonas A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette T1 - Flash floods versus river floods BT - a comparison of psychological impacts and implications for precautionary behaviour JF - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences N2 - River floods are among the most damaging natural hazards that frequently occur in Germany. Flooding causes high economic losses and impacts many residents. In 2016, several southern German municipalities were hit by flash floods after unexpectedly severe heavy rainfall, while in 2013 widespread river flooding had occurred. This study investigates and compares the psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods and potential consequences for precautionary behaviour. Data were collected using computer-aided telephone interviews that were conducted among flood-affected households around 9 months after each damaging event. This study applies Bayesian statistics and negative binomial regressions to test the suitability of psychological indicators to predict the precaution motivation of individuals. The results show that it is not the particular flood type but rather the severity and local impacts of the event that are crucial for the different, and potentially negative, impacts on mental health. According to the used data, however, predictions of the individual precaution motivation should not be based on the derived psychological indicators – i.e. coping appraisal, threat appraisal, burden and evasion – since their explanatory power was generally low and results are, for the most part, non-significant. Only burden reveals a significant positive relation to planned precaution regarding weak flash floods. In contrast to weak flash floods and river floods, the perceived threat of strong flash floods is significantly lower although feelings of burden and lower coping appraisals are more pronounced. Further research is needed to better include psychological assessment procedures and to focus on alternative data sources regarding floods and the connected precaution motivation of affected residents. KW - private households KW - risk perceptions KW - extreme rainfall KW - health KW - mitigation KW - Germany KW - people KW - damage KW - preparedness KW - residents Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020 SN - 1684-9981 VL - 20 SP - 999 EP - 1023 PB - European Geophysical Society CY - Katlenburg-Lindau ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Laudan, Jonas A1 - Roezer, Viktor A1 - Sieg, Tobias A1 - Vogel, Kristin A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette T1 - Damage assessment in Braunsbach 2016: data collection and analysis for an improved understanding of damaging processes during flash floods JF - Natural hazards and earth system sciences Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2163-2017 SN - 1561-8633 VL - 17 SP - 2163 EP - 2179 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Agarwal, Ankit A1 - Boessenkool, Berry A1 - Fischer, Madlen A1 - Hahn, Irene A1 - Köhn, Lisei A1 - Laudan, Jonas A1 - Moran, Thomas A1 - Öztürk, Ugur A1 - Riemer, Adrian A1 - Rözer, Viktor A1 - Sieg, Tobias A1 - Vogel, Kristin A1 - Wendi, Dadiyorto A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette T1 - Die Sturzflut in Braunsbach, Mai 2016 T1 - The flash flood of Braunsbach, May 2006 BT - eine Bestandsaufnahme und Ereignisbeschreibung BT - a hydrological survey and event analysis N2 - Im Graduiertenkolleg NatRiskChange der Universität Potsdam und anderen Forschungseinrichtungen werden beobachtete sowie zukünftig mögliche Veränderungen von Naturgefahren untersucht. Teil des strukturierten Doktorandenprogramms sind sogenannte Task-Force-Einsätze, bei denen die Promovierende zeitlich begrenzt ein aktuelles Ereignis auswerten. Im Zuge dieser Aktivität wurde die Sturzflut vom 29.05.2016 in Braunsbach (Baden-Württemberg) untersucht. In diesem Bericht werden erste Auswertungen zur Einordnung der Niederschläge, zu den hydrologischen und geomorphologischen Prozessen im Einzugsgebiet des Orlacher Bachs sowie zu den verursachten Schäden beleuchtet. Die Region war Zentrum extremer Regenfälle in der Größenordnung von 100 mm innerhalb von 2 Stunden. Das 6 km² kleine Einzugsgebiet hat eine sehr schnelle Reaktionszeit, zumal bei vorgesättigtem Boden. Im steilen Bachtal haben mehrere kleinere und größere Hangrutschungen über 8000 m³ Geröll, Schutt und Schwemmholz in das Gewässer eingetragen und möglicherweise kurzzeitige Aufstauungen und Durchbrüche verursacht. Neben den großen Wassermengen mit einer Abflussspitze in einer Größenordnung von 100 m³/s hat gerade die Geschiebefracht zu großen Schäden an den Gebäuden entlang des Bachlaufs in Braunsbach geführt. N2 - The DFG graduate school “Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World” (NatRiskChange), which is located at the University of Potsdam and its partner institutions, studies previous as well as ongoing and potential future changes in the risk posed by natural hazards. The education program includes so-called task force activities, where the PhD students conduct a rapid event assessment directly after the occurrence of a hazardous natural event. Within this context the flash flood that hit the village Braunsbach (Baden-Württemberg, Germany) at May 29th, 2016 was investigated. This report summarizes first results describing the rainfall amount and intensities as well as hydrological and geomorphological processes in the corresponding catchment area of the Orlacher Bach. Further, the damages caused in Braunsbach are investigated. Rainfall intensity measures documented extreme precipitation in the area of Braunsbach with a cumulative amount of about 100 mm within 2 hours. The small catchment area, with a size of 6 km², has a small response time, especially under pre-saturated soil conditions. Several landslides, that occurred at the steep slopes of the river valley, transported more than 8000 m³ of gravel, debris and organic material into the water runoff. They may have caused temporal blockades, that collapsed after a certain amount of water accumulated. In addition to the high discharge, with peak values in the order of 100 m³/s, the high sediment content of the flash flood is mainly responsible for the large damages caused to the buildings in Braunsbach. KW - Sturzflut KW - Naturgefahren KW - Extremniederschlag KW - Schadensabschätzung KW - Hangrutschungen KW - flash flood KW - natural hazards KW - extreme precipitation KW - damage assessment KW - landslides Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-394881 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Laudan, Jonas A1 - Rözer, Viktor A1 - Sieg, Tobias A1 - Vogel, Kristin A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette T1 - Damage assessment in Braunsbach 2016 BT - data collection and analysis for an improved understanding of damaging processes during flash floods T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Flash floods are caused by intense rainfall events and represent an insufficiently understood phenomenon in Germany. As a result of higher precipitation intensities, flash floods might occur more frequently in future. In combination with changing land use patterns and urbanisation, damage mitigation, insurance and risk management in flash-flood-prone regions are becoming increasingly important. However, a better understanding of damage caused by flash floods requires ex post collection of relevant but yet sparsely available information for research. At the end of May 2016, very high and concentrated rainfall intensities led to severe flash floods in several southern German municipalities. The small town of Braunsbach stood as a prime example of the devastating potential of such events. Eight to ten days after the flash flood event, damage assessment and data collection were conducted in Braunsbach by investigating all affected buildings and their surroundings. To record and store the data on site, the open-source software bundle KoBoCollect was used as an efficient and easy way to gather information. Since the damage driving factors of flash floods are expected to differ from those of riverine flooding, a post-hoc data analysis was performed, aiming to identify the influence of flood processes and building attributes on damage grades, which reflect the extent of structural damage. Data analyses include the application of random forest, a random general linear model and multinomial logistic regression as well as the construction of a local impact map to reveal influences on the damage grades. Further, a Spearman's Rho correlation matrix was calculated. The results reveal that the damage driving factors of flash floods differ from those of riverine floods to a certain extent. The exposition of a building in flow direction shows an especially strong correlation with the damage grade and has a high predictive power within the constructed damage models. Additionally, the results suggest that building materials as well as various building aspects, such as the existence of a shop window and the surroundings, might have an effect on the resulting damage. To verify and confirm the outcomes as well as to support future mitigation strategies, risk management and planning, more comprehensive and systematic data collection is necessary. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 653 KW - building damage KW - mai 29th KW - flow KW - vulnerability KW - 2016-origin KW - pathways KW - Germany KW - impacts KW - model Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418392 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 653 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Vogel, Kristin A1 - Ozturk, Ugur A1 - Riemer, Adrian A1 - Laudan, Jonas A1 - Sieg, Tobias A1 - Wendi, Dadiyorto A1 - Agarwal, Ankit A1 - Roezer, Viktor A1 - Korup, Oliver A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette T1 - Die Sturzflut von Braunsbach am 29. Mai 2016 – Entstehung, Ablauf und Schäden eines „Jahrhundertereignisses“ T1 - The Braunsbach Flashflood of Mai 29th, 2016-Origin, Pathways and Impacts of an Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Event BT - Teil 2: Geomorphologische Prozesse und Schadensanalyse BT - Part 2: Geomorphological Processes and Damage Analysis JF - Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung N2 - Am Abend des 29. Mai 2016 wurde der Ort Braunsbach im Landkreis Schwäbisch-Hall (Baden-Württemberg) von einer Sturzflut getroffen, bei der mehrere Häuser stark beschädigt oder zerstört wurden. Die Sturzflut war eine der Unwetterfolgen, die im Frühsommer 2016 vom Tiefdruckgebiet Elvira ausgelöst wurden. Der vorliegende Bericht ist der zweite Teil einer Doppelveröffentlichung, welche die Ergebnisse zur Untersuchung des Sturzflutereignisses im Rahmen des DFG-Graduiertenkollegs “Naturgefahren und Risiken in einer sich verändernden Welt” (NatRiskChange, GRK 2043/1) der Universität Potsdam präsentiert. Während Teil 1 die meteorologischen und hydrologischen Ereignisse analysiert, fokussiert Teil 2 auf die geomorphologischen Prozesse und die verursachten Gebäudeschäden. Dazu wurden Ursprung und Ausmaß des während des Sturzflutereignisses mobilisierten und in den Ort getragenen Materials untersucht. Des Weiteren wurden zu 96 betroffenen Gebäuden Daten zum Schadensgrad sowie Prozess- und Gebäudecharakteristika aufgenommen und ausgewertet. Die Untersuchungen zeigen, dass bei der Betrachtung von Hochwassergefährdung die Berücksichtigung von Sturzfluten und ihrer speziellen Charakteristika, wie hoher Feststofftransport und sprunghaftes Verhalten insbesondere in bebautem Gelände, wesentlich ist, um effektive Schutzmaßnahmen ergreifen zu können. N2 - A severe flash flood event hit the town of Braunsbach (Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) on the evening of May 29, 2016, heavily damaging and destroying several dozens of buildings. It was only one of several disastrous events in Central Europe caused by the low-pressure system "Elvira". The DFG Graduate School "Natural hazards and risks in a changing world" (NatRiskChange, GRK 2043/1) at the University of Potsdam investigated the Braunsbach flash flood as a recent showcase for catastrophic events triggered by severe weather. This contribution is part two of a back-to-back publication on the results of this storm event. While part 1 analyses the meteorological and hydrological situation, part 2 concentrates on the geomorphological aspects and damage to buildings. The study outlines the origin and amount of material that was mobilized and transported into the town by the flood, and analyses damage data collected for 96 affected buildings, describing the degree of impact, underlying processes, and building characteristics. Due to the potentially high sediment load of flash floods and their non-steady and non-uniform flow especially in built-up areas, the damaging processes differ from those of clear water floods. The results underline the need to consider flash floods and their specific behaviour in flood hazard assessments. KW - flash flood KW - flood risk KW - damaging processes KW - debris flow KW - erosion KW - landslides KW - Braunsbach KW - Sturzflut KW - Hochwassergefährdung KW - Schadensprozesse KW - Erosion KW - Hangrutschungen Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5675/HyWa_2017,3_2 SN - 1439-1783 VL - 61 IS - 3 SP - 163 EP - 175 PB - Bundesanst. für Gewässerkunde CY - Koblenz ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Botzen, W. J. Wouter A1 - Laudan, Jonas A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette T1 - Insights into flood-coping appraisals of protection motivation theory BT - Empirical evidence from Germany and France JF - Risk analysis N2 - Protection motivation theory (PMT) has become a popular theory to explain the risk-reducing behavior of residents against natural hazards. PMT captures the two main cognitive processes that individuals undergo when faced with a threat, namely, threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The latter describes the evaluation of possible response measures that may reduce or avert the perceived threat. Although the coping appraisal component of PMT was found to be a better predictor of protective intentions and behavior, little is known about the factors that influence individuals’ coping appraisals of natural hazards. More insight into flood-coping appraisals of PMT, therefore, are needed to better understand the decision-making process of individuals and to develop effective risk communication strategies. This study presents the results of two surveys among more than 1,600 flood-prone households in Germany and France. Five hypotheses were tested using multivariate statistics regarding factors related to flood-coping appraisals, which were derived from the PMT framework, related literature, and the literature on social vulnerability. We found that socioeconomic characteristics alone are not sufficient to explain flood-coping appraisals. Particularly, observational learning from the social environment, such as friends and neighbors, is positively related to flood-coping appraisals. This suggests that social norms and networks play an important role in flood-preparedness decisions. Providing risk and coping information can also have a positive effect. Given the strong positive influence of the social environment on flood-coping appraisals, future research should investigate how risk communication can be enhanced by making use of the observed social norms and network effects. KW - Coping appraisal KW - floods KW - protection motivation theory (PMT) KW - risk communication KW - social vulnerability Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12938 SN - 0272-4332 SN - 1539-6924 VL - 38 IS - 6 SP - 1239 EP - 1257 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - THES A1 - Laudan, Jonas T1 - Changing susceptibility of flood-prone residents in Germany T1 - Die Änderung der Anfälligkeit von Hochwassergefährdeten Anwohnern in Deutschland BT - mental coping and mitigation behaviour in the context of different flood types BT - Mentale Bewältigung und Schadensminderungsverhalten im Zusammenhang mit Verschiedenen Hochwassertypen N2 - Floods are among the most costly natural hazards that affect Europe and Germany, demanding a continuous adaptation of flood risk management. While social and economic development in recent years altered the flood risk patterns mainly with regard to an increase in flood exposure, different flood events are further expected to increase in frequency and severity in certain European regions due to climate change. As a result of recent major flood events in Germany, the German flood risk management shifted to more integrated approaches that include private precaution and preparation to reduce the damage on exposed assets. Yet, detailed insights into the preparedness decisions of flood-prone households remain scarce, especially in connection to mental impacts and individual coping strategies after being affected by different flood types. This thesis aims to gain insights into flash floods as a costly hazard in certain German regions and compares the damage driving factors to the damage driving factors of river floods. Furthermore, psychological impacts as well as the effects on coping and mitigation behaviour of flood-affected households are assessed. In this context, psychological models such as the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and methods such as regressions and Bayesian statistics are used to evaluate influencing factors on the mental coping after an event and to identify psychological variables that are connected to intended private flood mitigation. The database consists of surveys that were conducted among affected households after major river floods in 2013 and flash floods in 2016. The main conclusions that can be drawn from this thesis reveal that the damage patterns and damage driving factors of strong flash floods differ significantly from those of river floods due to a rapid flow origination process, higher flow velocities and flow forces. However, the effects on mental coping of people that have been affected by flood events appear to be weakly influenced by different flood types, but yet show a coherence to the event severity, where often thinking of the respective event is pronounced and also connected to a higher mitigation motivation. The mental coping and preparation after floods is further influenced by a good information provision and a social environment, which encourages a positive attitude towards private mitigation. As an overall recommendation, approaches for an integrated flood risk management in Germany should be followed that also take flash floods into account and consider psychological characteristics of affected households to support and promote private flood mitigation. Targeted information campaigns that concern coping options and discuss current flood risks are important to better prepare for future flood hazards in Germany. N2 - Hochwasser zählen zu den schadensträchtigsten Naturgefahren, die in Europa und Deutschland vorkommen. In Deutschland traten in den letzten Jahren einige sehr starke Hochwasser und Überflutungen auf, die die Einstufung von Hochwassern als gefährliche Naturgewalt bestätigten. Private Haushalte leiden unter finanziellen und persönlichen Verlusten und sind sogar teilweise mehrfach betroffen. Folgenreiche Hochwasser, die im Gedächtnis blieben, waren insbesondere das Elbe-Hochwasser im Sommer 2002 sowie Überschwemmungen mit Schwerpukten an Elbe und Donau im Juni 2013. Im Mai und Juni 2016 kam es zu heftigen Unwettern über Zentraleuropa, während insbesondere Süddeutschland von Starkregen und Sturzfluten betroffen war. Hierbei wurden vereinzelte Ortschaften in Baden-Württtemberg (vor allem Braunsbach) und Bayern (vor allem Simbach am Inn) von extremen Sturzfluten beeinträchtigt und Bauwerke stark beschädigt. Als Reaktion auf die Flusshochwasser 2002 und 2013 wurde unter anderem das aktuelle Hochwasserrisikomanagement in Deutschland so angepasst, dass neben übergeordneten und technischen Hochwasserschutzmaßnahmen auch auf lokaler Ebene Maßnahmen ergriffen werden müssen. Diese umfassen Hochwasservorsorgemaßnahmen, die betroffene Haushalte selbst implementieren sollen. Neben strukturellen Maßnahmen wie z.B. der Verlegung von Heizung, Elektronik und Öltank in nicht-gefährdete Stockwerke sowie dem Schutz des Gebäudes vor Eindringen von Wasser, können auch nichtstrukturelle Maßnahmen, wie z.B. eine angepasste Wohnraumnutzung und das Verwenden von geeigneter Inneneinrichtung, ergriffen werden, um Hochwasserschäden signifikant zu verringern. Bis heute ist es jedoch unklar, aus welchen Gründen sich die betroffenen Menschen für Hochwasservorsorgemaßnahmen entscheiden und wie die individuelle Motivation, Maßnahmen zu implementieren, verstärkt werden kann. Neben dem Wissen um die eigene Hochwassergefährdung ist anzunehmen, dass die Selbsteinschätzung in Bezug auf einen wirksamen Umgang mit Hochwassern ausschlaggebend für die Motivation zur Vorsorge ist. Außerdem kann davon ausgegangen werden, dass verschiedene Hochwassertypen wie Flusshochwasser und Sturzfluten mit ihren unterschiedlichen Dynamiken unterschiedliche Auswirkungen auf die mentale Bewältigung und somit auch auf das Vorsorgeverhalten hervorrufen. Die vorliegende Arbeit hat demnach zum Ziel, Flusshochwasser und Sturzfluten in Deutschland miteinander zu vergleichen, wobei der Fokus auf schadenstreibenden Faktoren und psychologischen Auswirkungen auf betroffene Haushalte liegt. Weiterhin sollen damit verbundenes Vorsorgeverhalten untersucht und gegebenenfalls Handlungsempfehlungen für das Hochwasserrisikomanagement abgeleitet werden, das einerseits psychologische Charakteristika und andererseits Sturzfluten als signifikante Naturgefahr in Deutschland miteinbezieht. Hierbei werden sozio-ökonomische, zwischenmenschliche und psychologische Variablen von Haushalten ausgewertet, die 2013 und 2016 von Flusshochwassern und Sturzfluten betroffen waren. Dabei kommen verschiedene Methoden (Regressionen, Bayessche Statistik) und Modelle (Protection Motivation Theory) zum Einsatz, um Verbindungen zwischen den Variablen aufzeigen. Die Ergebnisse veranschaulichen erstens, dass Flusshochwasser und Sturzfluten zwar unterschiedliche Schäden an Gebäuden aufgrund verschiedener Flutdynamiken hervorrufen können, was sich bei Betroffenen jedoch nicht in unterschiedlichen psychologischen Auswirkungen widerspiegelt. Vielmehr ist die jeweilige Stärke und Schwere des Hochwassers entscheidend für charakteristische Ausprägungen von psychologischen Variablen. In diesem Falle sorgt eine stärkere Flut dafür, dass häufiger an das jeweilige Ereignis gedacht wird, während die Motivation zur Eigenvorsorge in solchen Fällen erhöht scheint. Zweitens sind ein soziales Umfeld, in dem bereits Vorsorgemaßnahmen implementiert wurden, sowie hilfreiche Informationen für geeignete Maßnahmen, deren Kosten und Aufklärung über das aktuelle Hochwasserrisiko förderlich für die Motivation, private Vorsorge zu betreiben. Ein aktuelles Hochwasserrisikomanagement sollte demnach auch Sturzfluten als mögliches Risiko in Deutschland miteinbeziehen und mehr in die Aufklärung und private Unterstützung bei Hochwassern investieren. Ein besseres Verstehen von psychologischen und mentalen Auswirkungen von verschiedenen Hochwassertypen hat den Vorteil, dass Hilfe und Informationskampagnen individuell und effizient gestaltet, Schäden minimiert und Schadensprognosen aufgrund der genaueren Kenntnisse über Vorsorgeverhalten verbessert werden können. KW - floods KW - psychology KW - flash floods KW - Hochwasser KW - Psychologie KW - Sturzfluten Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-434421 ER -