TY  - JOUR
A1  - Nendel, Claas
A1  - Reckling, Moritz
A1  - Debaeke, Philippe
A1  - Schulz, Susanne
A1  - Berg-Mohnicke, Michael
A1  - Constantin, Julie
A1  - Fronzek, Stefan
A1  - Hoffmann, Munir
A1  - Jakšić, Snežana
A1  - Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian
A1  - Klimek-Kopyra, Agnieszka
A1  - Raynal, Hélène
A1  - Schoving, Céline
A1  - Stella, Tommaso
A1  - Battisti, Rafael
T1  - Future area expansion outweighs increasing drought risk for soybean in Europe
JF  - Global change biology
N2  - The European Union is highly dependent on soybean imports from overseas to meet its protein demands. Individual Member States have been quick to declare self-sufficiency targets for plant-based proteins, but detailed strategies are still lacking. Rising global temperatures have painted an image of a bright future for soybean production in Europe, but emerging climatic risks such as drought have so far not been included in any of those outlooks. 
Here, we present simulations of future soybean production and the most prominent risk factors across Europe using an ensemble of climate and soybean growth models. Projections suggest a substantial increase in potential soybean production area and productivity in Central Europe, while southern European production would become increasingly dependent on supplementary irrigation. Average productivity would rise by 8.3% (RCP 4.5) to 8.7% (RCP 8.5) as a result of improved growing conditions (plant physiology benefiting from rising temperature and CO2 levels) and farmers adapting to them by using cultivars with longer phenological cycles. Suitable production area would rise by 31.4% (RCP 4.5) to 37.7% (RCP 8.5) by the mid-century, contributing considerably more than productivity increase to the production potential for closing the protein gap in Europe. 
While wet conditions at harvest and incidental cold spells are the current key challenges for extending soybean production, the models and climate data analysis anticipate that drought and heat will become the dominant limitations in the future. Breeding for heat-tolerant and water-efficient genotypes is needed to further improve soybean adaptation to changing climatic conditions.
KW  - genotypes
KW  - legumes
KW  - maturity groups
KW  - protein crops
KW  - protein transition
KW  - resilience
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16562
SN  - 1354-1013
SN  - 1365-2486
VL  - 29
IS  - 5
SP  - 1340
EP  - 1358
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Ocford [u.a]
ER  -