TY  - GEN
A1  - Nathan, Ran
A1  - Horvitz, Nir
A1  - He, Yanping
A1  - Kuparinen, Anna
A1  - Schurr, Frank Martin
A1  - Katul, Gabriel G.
T1  - Spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in future environments
T2  - Ecology letters
N2  - P>Despite ample research, understanding plant spread and predicting their ability to track projected climate changes remain a formidable challenge to be confronted. We modelled the spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in current and future (c. 2060) conditions, accounting for variation in 10 key dispersal, demographic and environmental factors affecting population spread. Predicted spread rates vary substantially among 12 study species, primarily due to inter-specific variation in maturation age, fecundity and seed terminal velocity. Future spread is predicted to be faster if atmospheric CO2 enrichment would increase fecundity and advance maturation, irrespective of the projected changes in mean surface windspeed. Yet, for only a few species, predicted wind-driven spread will match future climate changes, conditioned on seed abscission occurring only in strong winds and environmental conditions favouring high survival of the farthest-dispersed seeds. Because such conditions are unlikely, North American wind-dispersed trees are expected to lag behind the projected climate range shift.
KW  - Climate change
KW  - demography
KW  - dispersal
KW  - fat-tailed dispersal kernels
KW  - forecasting
KW  - forests
KW  - invasion by extremes
KW  - long-distance dispersal
KW  - mechanistic models
KW  - plant migration
KW  - population spread
KW  - range expansion
KW  - survival
KW  - wind dispersal
Y1  - 2011
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01573.x
SN  - 1461-023X
VL  - 14
IS  - 3
SP  - 211
EP  - 219
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Malden
ER  -