TY - JOUR A1 - Köchy, Martin A1 - Mathaj, Martin A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Malkinson, Dan T1 - Resilience of stocking capacity to changing climate in arid to Mediterranean landscapes N2 - Small livestock is an important resource for rural human populations in dry climates. How strongly will climate change affect the capacity of the rangeland? We used hierarchical modelling to scale quantitatively the growth of shrubs and annual plants, the main food of sheep and goats, to the landscape extent in the eastern Mediterranean region. Without grazing, productivity increased in a sigmoid way with mean annual precipitation. Grazing reduced productivity more strongly the drier the landscape. At a point just under the stocking capacity of the vegetation, productivity declined precipitously with more intense grazing due to a lack of seed production of annuals. We repeated simulations with precipitation patterns projected by two contrasting IPCC scenarios. Compared to results based on historic patterns, productivity and stocking capacity did not differ in most cases. Thus, grazing intensity remains the stronger impact on landscape productivity in this dry region even in the future. Y1 - 2008 UR - http://www.springerlink.com/content/gj0567116q770036/ U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-008-0048-6 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thiele, T. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Blaum, Niels T1 - Importance of woody vegetation for foraging site selection in the Southern Pied Babbler (Turdoides bicolor) under two different land use regimes Y1 - 2008 SN - 0140-1963 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schiffers, Katja A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Tielbörger, Katja A1 - Urbach, Carsten A1 - Moloney, Kirk A. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Dealing with virtual aggregation : a new index for analysing heterogeneous point patterns Y1 - 2008 UR - http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/117966123/home U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.05374.x SN - 0906-7590 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schwager, Monika A1 - Johst, Karin A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Does red noise increase or decrease extinction risk? Single extreme events versus series of unfavorable conditions N2 - Recent theoretical studies have shown contrasting effects of temporal correlation of environmental fluctuations ( red noise) on the risk of population extinction. It is still debated whether and under which conditions red noise increases or decreases extinction risk compared with uncorrelated ( white) noise. Here, we explain the opposing effects by introducing two features of red noise time series. On the one hand, positive autocorrelation increases the probability of series of poor environmental conditions, implying increasing extinction risk. On the other hand, for a given time period, the probability of at least one extremely bad year ("catastrophe") is reduced compared with white noise, implying decreasing extinction risk. Which of these two features determines extinction risk depends on the strength of environmental fluctuations and the sensitivity of population dynamics to these fluctuations. If extreme ( catastrophic) events can occur ( strong noise) or sensitivity is high ( overcompensatory density dependence), then temporal correlation decreases extinction risk; otherwise, it increases it. Thus, our results provide a simple explanation for the contrasting previous findings and are a crucial step toward a general understanding of the effect of noise color on extinction risk Y1 - 2006 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hennenberg, K. J. A1 - Fischer, Franka A1 - Kouadio, K A1 - Goetze, D A1 - Orthmann, B A1 - Linsenmair, KE A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Porembski, Stefan T1 - Phytornass and fire occurrence along forest-savanna transects in the Comoe National Park, Ivory Coast N2 - In tropical West Africa, distribution patterns of forest islands in savannas are influenced by fires which occur regularly in the grass stratum. Along continuous forest-savanna transects in the Comoe National Park, the change in the amount and composition of non-woody phytomass was investigated from savanna to forest interior. This was correlated with the cover of vegetation strata above, soil depth, and the occurrence of seasonal surface fires. Phytomass mainly consisted of leaf litter in the forests (about 400 g m(-2) at the end of the rainy season, and about 600 g m(-2) at the end of the dry season) and of grasses in the savanna (about 900 g m(-2)). Low grass biomass appeared to be primarily the result of suppression by competing woody species and not of shallow soil. The occurrence of early dry-season fires seemed to be determined mainly by the amount of grass biomass as fuel because fires occurred in almost all savanna plots while forest sites remained unaffected. However, late dry-season fires will encounter higher amounts of leaf litter raising fire probability in forests. Due to the importance of the amount of combustible phytomass, fire probability and intensity might increase with annual precipitation in both savanna and forest Y1 - 2006 UR - http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_TRO U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S026646705003007 SN - 0266-4674 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tews, Jörg A1 - Esther, Alexandra A1 - Milton, Sue J. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Linking a population model with an ecosystem model : assessing the impact of land use and climate change on savanna shrub cover dynamics N2 - In semiarid savannas of Southern Africa current land use practices and climate change may lead to substantial changes of vegetation structure in the near future, however uncertainty remains about the potential consequences and the magnitude of change. In this paper we study the impact of climate change, cattle grazing, and wood cutting on shrub cover dynamics in savannas of the southern Kalahari. We use an established savanna ecosystem model to simulate landscape dynamics in terms of rainfall, fire and distribution of the dominant tree Acacia erioloba. We then incorporate these data into a spatial population model of the common, fleshy-fruited shrub Grewia flava and investigate shrub cover dynamics for a period of 100 years. Depending on the intensity of commercial wood cutting practices tree removal of A. erioloba led to a strong decline of the G. flava population, as shrub recruitment is concentrated in tree sub-canopies due to bird-mediated seed dispersal. Under climate change shrub cover slightly decreased with decreasing precipitation and was unchanged with increase in precipitation variability. Contrarily, grazing by cattle strongly increased shrub cover and facilitated shrub encroachment because of cattle-induced distribution of G. flava seeds into the matrix vegetation. Knowledge of the latter process is particularly important because shrub invasion is a major concern for conservation and savanna rangeland management as a result of its adverse effects on livestock carrying capacity and biodiversity Y1 - 2006 UR - http://www.mendeley.com/research/linking-a-population-model-with-an-ecosystem-model-assessing-the-impact- of-land-use-and-climate-change-on-savanna-shrub-cover-dynamics/#page-1 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.11.025 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wichmann, Matthias A1 - Johst, Karin A1 - Schwager, Monika A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Blasius, Bernd T1 - Extinction risk, coloured noise and the scaling of variance N2 - The impact of temporally correlated fluctuating environments (coloured noise) on the extinction risk of populations has become a main focus in theoretical population ecology. In this study we particularly focus on the extinction risk in strongly autocorrelated environments. Here, in contrast to moderate autocorrelation, we found the extinction risk to be highly dependent on the process of noise generation, in particular on the method of variance scaling. Such variance scaling is commonly applied to avoid variance-driven biases when comparing the extinction risk for white and coloured noise. In this study we found an often-used scaling technique to lead to high variability in the resulting variances of different time series for strong auto-correlation eventually leading to deviations in the projected extinction risk. Therefore, we present an alternative method that always delivers the target variance, even in the case of strong temporal correlation. Furthermore, in contrast to the earlier method, our very intuitive method is not bound to auto-regressive processes but can be applied to all types of coloured noises. We recommend the method introduced here to be used when the target of interest is the effect of noise colour on extinction risk not obscured by any variance effects. Y1 - 2005 UR - http://www.agnld.uni-potsdam.de/~bernd/papers/tpb1.pdf ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Dean, W. R. J. A1 - Milton, Sue J. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - A conceptual model linking demography of the shrub species Grewia flava to the dynamics of Kalahari savannas N2 - Environmental heterogeneity is a major determinant of plant population dynamics. In semi-arid Kalahari savannas, heterogeneity is created by savanna structure, i.e. by the spatial arrangement and temporal dynamics of woody plant and open grassland microsites. We formulate a conceptual model describing the effects of savanna dynamics on the population dynamics of the animal-dispersed shrub Grewia flava. From empirical results we derive model rules describing effects of savanna structure on several processes in Grewia's life cycle. By formulating the model, we summarise existing information on Grewia demography and identify gaps in this knowledge. Despite a number of such gaps, the model can be used to make certain quantitative predictions. As an example, we apply the model to investigate the role of seed dispersal in Grewia encroachment on rangelands. Model results show that cattle promote encroachment by depositing substantial numbers of seeds in open areas, where Grewia is otherwise dispersal-limited. Finally, we draw some general conclusions about Grewia's life history and population dynamics. Under natural conditions, concentrated seed deposition under woody plants appears to be a key process causing the observed association between Grewia and other woody plants. Furthermore, low rates of recruitment and high adult survival result in slow-motion dynamics of Grewia populations. As a consequence, Grewia populations interact with savanna dynamics on long temporal and short to intermediate spatial scales. Y1 - 2004 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wichmann, Matthias A1 - Dean, W. R. J. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Predicting the breeding success of large raptors in arid southern Africa : a first assessment N2 - Raptors are often priorities for conservation efforts and breeding success is a target measure for assessing their conservation status. The breeding success of large raptors in and southern Africa is thought to be higher in years of high rainfall. While this correlation has been found in several studies, it has not yet been shown for data from a wider geographical area. In conservation research, it is important to explore the differences between spatially- separated populations to estimate and to compare their conservation status, and to deduce specific management strategies. Using a theoretical approach, we develop a simplistic model to explain the breeding success-rainfall relationship in large African raptors at larger spatial scales. Secondly, we validate this model and we show that the inclusion of field data leads to consistent predictions. In particular, we recommend that the average size of the 'effective territory' should be included in the relationship between annual rainfall and breeding success of raptors in and southern Africa. Accordingly, we suggest that breeding success is a function of precipitation and inter- nest distance. We present a new measure of territory quality depending on rainfall and territory size. We suggest that our model provides a useful first approach to assess breeding success in large raptors of and southern Africa. However, we strongly emphasise the need to gather more data to further verify our model. A general problem in conservation research is to compare the status of populations assessed in different study areas under changing environmental conditions. Our simplistic approach indicates that this problem can be overcome by using a weighted evaluation of a target measure (i.e. breeding success), taking regional differences into account Y1 - 2006 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Groeneveld, Jürgen A1 - Wissel, Christian A1 - Wucherer, W. A1 - Dimeyeva, L. T1 - Seed dispersal by cattle may cause shrub encroachment of Grewia flava on southern Kalahari rangelands Y1 - 2005 SN - 3-86537-386-0 ER -