TY  - JOUR
A1  - Diluiso, Francesca
A1  - Walk, Paula
A1  - Manych, Niccolo
A1  - Cerutti, Nicola
A1  - Chipiga, Vladislav
A1  - Workman, Annabelle
A1  - Ayas, Ceren
A1  - Cui, Ryna Yiyun
A1  - Cui, Diyang
A1  - Song, Kaihui
A1  - Banisch, Lucy A.
A1  - Moretti, Nikolaj
A1  - Callaghan, Max W.
A1  - Clarke, Leon
A1  - Creutzig, Felix
A1  - Hilaire, Jerome
A1  - Jotzo, Frank
A1  - Kalkuhl, Matthias
A1  - Lamb, William F.
A1  - Löschel, Andreas
A1  - Müller-Hansen, Finn
A1  - Nemet, Gregory F.
A1  - Oei, Pao-Yu
A1  - Sovacool, Benjamin K.
A1  - Steckel, Jan Christoph
A1  - Thomas, Sebastian
A1  - Wiseman, John
A1  - Minx, Jan C.
T1  - Coal transitions - part 1
BT  - a systematic map and review of case study learnings from regional, national, and local coal phase-out experiences
JF  - Environmental research letters
N2  - A rapid coal phase-out is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, but is hindered by serious challenges ranging from vested interests to the risks of social disruption. To understand how to organize a global coal phase-out, it is crucial to go beyond cost-effective climate mitigation scenarios and learn from the experience of previous coal transitions. Despite the relevance of the topic, evidence remains fragmented throughout different research fields, and not easily accessible. To address this gap, this paper provides a systematic map and comprehensive review of the literature on historical coal transitions. We use computer-assisted systematic mapping and review methods to chart and evaluate the available evidence on historical declines in coal production and consumption. We extracted a dataset of 278 case studies from 194 publications, covering coal transitions in 44 countries and ranging from the end of the 19th century until 2021. We find a relatively recent and rapidly expanding body of literature reflecting the growing importance of an early coal phase-out in scientific and political debates. Previous evidence has primarily focused on the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany, while other countries that experienced large coal declines, like those in Eastern Europe, are strongly underrepresented. An increasing number of studies, mostly published in the last 5 years, has been focusing on China. Most of the countries successfully reducing coal dependency have undergone both demand-side and supply-side transitions. This supports the use of policy approaches targeting both demand and supply to achieve a complete coal phase-out. From a political economy perspective, our dataset highlights that most transitions are driven by rising production costs for coal, falling prices for alternative energies, or local environmental concerns, especially regarding air pollution. The main challenges for coal-dependent regions are structural change transformations, in particular for industry and labor. Rising unemployment is the most largely documented outcome in the sample. Policymakers at multiple levels are instrumental in facilitating coal transitions. They rely mainly on regulatory instruments to foster the transitions and compensation schemes or investment plans to deal with their transformative processes. Even though many models suggest that coal phase-outs are among the low-hanging fruits on the way to climate neutrality and meeting the international climate goals, our case studies analysis highlights the intricate political economy at work that needs to be addressed through well-designed and just policies.
KW  - climate change mitigation
KW  - coal transitions
KW  - evidence synthesis
KW  - political economy
KW  - systematic map
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1b58
SN  - 1748-9326
VL  - 16
IS  - 11
PB  - Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP)
CY  - Bristol
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ciemer, Catrin
A1  - Boers, Niklas
A1  - Hirota, Marina
A1  - Kurths, Jürgen
A1  - Müller-Hansen, Finn
A1  - Oliveira, Rafael S.
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
T1  - Higher resilience to climatic disturbances in tropical vegetation exposed to more variable rainfall
JF  - Nature geoscience
N2  - With ongoing global warming, the amount and frequency of precipitation in the tropics is projected to change substantially. While it has been shown that tropical forests and savannahs are sustained within the same intermediate mean annual precipitation range, the mechanisms that lead to the resilience of these ecosystems are still not fully understood. In particular, the long-term impact of rainfall variability on resilience is as yet unclear. Here we present observational evidence that both tropical forest and savannah exposed to a higher rainfall variability-in particular on interannual scales-during their long-term past are overall more resilient against climatic disturbances. Based on precipitation and tree cover data in the Brazilian Amazon basin, we constructed potential landscapes that enable us to systematically measure the resilience of the different ecosystems. Additionally, we infer that shifts from forest to savannah due to decreasing precipitation in the future are more likely to occur in regions with a precursory lower rainfall variability. Long-term rainfall variability thus needs to be taken into account in resilience analyses and projections of vegetation response to climate change.
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0312-z
SN  - 1752-0894
SN  - 1752-0908
VL  - 12
IS  - 3
SP  - 174
EP  - 179
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - New York
ER  -