TY - JOUR A1 - Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich A1 - Lissner, Tabea K. A1 - Fischer, Erich M. A1 - Wohland, Jan A1 - Perrette, Mahe A1 - Golly, Antonius A1 - Rogelj, Joeri A1 - Childers, Katelin A1 - Schewe, Jacob A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Mengel, Matthias A1 - Hare, William A1 - Schaeffer, Michiel T1 - Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C JF - Earth system dynamics N2 - Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 degrees C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 degrees C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90% in 2050 and projected to decline to 70% by 2100 for a 1.5 degrees C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9% to 17% between 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11%. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2 degrees C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5 degrees C scenario. In a 1.5 degrees C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30% compared to a 2 degrees C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a good basis for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016 SN - 2190-4979 SN - 2190-4987 VL - 7 SP - 327 EP - 351 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - GEN A1 - Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich A1 - Lissner, Tabea Katharina A1 - Fischer, Erich M. A1 - Wohland, Jan A1 - Perrette, Mahé A1 - Golly, Antonius A1 - Rogelj, Joeri A1 - Childers, Katelin A1 - Schewe, Jacob A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Mengel, Matthias A1 - Hare, William A1 - Schaeffer, Michiel T1 - Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming BT - the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C T2 - Earth System Dynamics N2 - Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5 degrees C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2 degrees C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90% in 2050 and projected to decline to 70% by 2100 for a 1.5 degrees C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9% to 17% between 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11%. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2 degrees C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5 degrees C scenario. In a 1.5 degrees C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30% compared to a 2 degrees C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a good basis for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 426 KW - sea-level rise KW - Greenland ice-sheet KW - coral-reefs KW - precipitation extremes KW - West Antarctica KW - pine Island KW - model KW - projections KW - temperature KW - scenarios Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410258 ER - TY - THES A1 - Golly, Antonius T1 - Formation and evolution of channel steps and their role for sediment dynamics in a steep mountain stream T1 - Formation und Evolution von Bachstufen und ihr Einfluss auf die Sedimentdynamik eines steilen Gebirgseinzugsgebietes N2 - Steep mountain channels are an important component of the fluvial system. On geological timescales, they shape mountain belts and counteract tectonic uplift by erosion. Their channels are strongly coupled to hillslopes and they are often the main source of sediment transported downstream to low-gradient rivers and to alluvial fans, where commonly settlements in mountainous areas are located. Hence, mountain streams are the cause for one of the main natural hazards in these regions. Due to climate change and a pronounced populating of mountainous regions the attention given to this threat is even growing. Although quantitative studies on sediment transport have significantly advanced our knowledge on measuring and calibration techniques we still lack studies of the processes within mountain catchments. Studies examining the mechanisms of energy and mass exchange on small temporal and spatial scales in steep streams remain sparse in comparison to low-gradient alluvial channels. In the beginning of this doctoral project, a vast amount of experience and knowledge of a steep stream in the Swiss Prealps had to be consolidated in order to shape the principal aim of this research effort. It became obvious, that observations from within the catchment are underrepresented in comparison to experiments performed at the catchment’s outlet measuring fluxes and the effects of the transported material. To counteract this imbalance, an examination of mass fluxes within the catchment on the process scale was intended. Hence, this thesis is heavily based on direct field observations, which are generally rare in these environments in quantity and quality. The first objective was to investigate the coupling of the channel with surrounding hillslopes, the major sources of sediment. This research, which involved the monitoring of the channel and adjacent hillslopes, revealed that alluvial channel steps play a key role in coupling of channel and hillslopes. The observations showed that hillslope stability is strongly associated with the step presence and an understanding of step morphology and stability is therefore crucial in understanding sediment mobilization. This finding refined the way we think about the sediment dynamics in steep channels and motivated continued research of the step dynamics. However, soon it became obvious that the technological basis for developing field tests and analyzing the high resolution geometry measured in the field was not available. Moreover, for many geometrical quantities in mountain channels definitions and a clear scientific standard was not available. For example, these streams are characterized by a high spatial variability of the channel banks, preventing straightforward calculations of the channel width without a defined reference. Thus, the second and inevitable part of this thesis became the development and evaluation of scientific tools in order to investigate the geometrical content of the study reach thoroughly. The developed framework allowed the derivation of various metrics of step and channel geometry which facilitated research on the a large data set of observations of channel steps. In the third part, innovative, physically-based metrics have been developed and compared to current knowledge on step formation, suggested in the literature. With this analyses it could be demonstrated that the formation of channel steps follow a wide range of hydraulic controls. Due to the wide range of tested parameters channel steps observed in a natural stream were attributed to different mechanisms of step formation, including those based on jamming and those based on key-stones. This study extended our knowledge on step formation in a steep stream and harmonized different, often time seen as competing, processes of step formation. This study was based on observations collected at one point in time. In the fourth part of this project, the findings of the snap-shot observations were extended in the temporal dimension and the derived concepts have been utilized to investigate reach-scale step patterns in response to large, exceptional flood events. The preliminary results of this work based on the long-term analyses of 7 years of long profile surveys showed that the previously observed channel-hillslope mechanism is the responsible for the short-term response of step formation. The findings of the long-term analyses of step patterns drew a bow to the initial observations of a channel-hillslope system which allowed to join the dots in the dynamics of steep stream. Thus, in this thesis a broad approach has been chosen to gain insights into the complex system of steep mountain rivers. The effort includes in situ field observations (article I), the development of quantitative scientific tools (article II), the reach-scale analyses of step-pool morphology (article III) and its temporal evolution (article IV). With this work our view on the processes within the catchment has been advanced towards a better mechanistic understanding of these fluvial system relevant to improve applied scientific work. N2 - Gebirgsbäche sind stark gekoppelt mit angrenzenden Hängen, welche eine Hauptquelle von Sediment darstellen. Dieses Sediment wird durch erosive Prozesse weiter im fluvialen System stromabwärts transportiert, häufig auch in Bereiche alpiner Besiedlung. Das transportierte Sediment kann dort verheerende Schäden an Gebäuden und Infrastruktur anrichten. Daher stellen Gebirgsbäche eine Hauptursache für Naturgefahren in steilen Regionen dar, welche durch den Wandel des Klimas und die fortschreitende Besiedlung durch den Menschen noch verstärkt werden. Wenngleich quantitative Studien unser Wissen über Mess- und Kalibrierungstechniken zur Erfassung von Sedimenttransport erweitert haben, so sind doch viele Prozesse innerhalb der Einzugsgebiete in Hinblick auf Erosion und Sedimentverfügbarkeit weitgehend unerforscht. So stellen Beobachtungen von Mechanismen von Energie- und Massenaustausch auf kleinen räumlichen und zeitlichen Skalen innerhalb steiler Gebirgseinzugsgebiete eine Ausname dar. Diese Doktorarbeit basiert auf hoch-qualitativen Feldbeobachtungen in einem schweizer Gebirgsbach um Forschungsfragen in Hinblick auf die Sediementdyanmik zu behandeln. Das erste Ziel war es, die Gerinne-Hang-Kopplung zu erforschen und zu verstehen, um mögliche Sedimentquellen zu identifizieren, sowie die Mechanismen und Prozesse der Sedimentgenerierung in den Kontext der allgemeinen Dynamik von Gebirgsbächen zu bringen. Die erste Studie, welche auf visuellen Beobachtungen basiert, offenbarte eine Schlüsselrolle von Bachstufen in der Gerinne-Hang-Kopplung. Auf dieser Grundlage wurde ein konzeptuelles Modell entwickelt (Artikel I): durch die Erosion von Bachstufen werden angrenzende Hänge destabilisiert und ermöglichen anhaltenden Sedimenteintrag. Diese Forschung regte eine genauere Beobachtung der räumlichen und zeitlichen Evolution von Bachstufen an. Die weitere Forschung erforderte jedoch neue technologische Werkzeuge und Methoden welche zunächst in dieser Doktorarbeit eigens entwickelt wurden (Artikel II). Mit diesen Werkzeugen wurde dann ein Datensatz eingemessener Bachstufen in Hinblick auf den Formationsprozess analysiert (Artikel III). Mit dieser Analyse konnten verschiedene Stufenbildungstheorien überprüft und und zwei dominante Mechanismen verifiziert werden: Bachstufen formen sich in engen und verengenden Bachabchnitten durch Verklemmung, sowie in breiten und breiter werdenden Abschnitten durch die Ablagerung von Schlüsselsteinen. Durch diese Beobachtung wurde unser Wissen über Stufenbildung erweitert indem verschiedene hypothetisierte Mechanismen in einem Gebirgsbach harmonisiert wurden. Zu guter Letzt wurde diese Punktbeobachtung schließlich in den zeitlichen Kontext gesetzt, indem die Muster von Bachstufen über 7 Jahre nach einem hydrologischen Großereignis in 2010 untersucht wurden (Artikel IV). Die vorläufigen Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Großereignisse einen erheblichen Einfluss auf die Gerinnebreite haben: sowohl die räumlich gemittelte Gerinnebreite, als auch die mittlere Gerinnebreite an Bachstufen ist unmittelbar nach dem Großereignis deutlich erhöht. Weiterhin ist die relative Anzahl der Bachstufen welche durch Schlüsselsteine erzeugt werden größer nach dem Großereignis. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass der zuerst beobachtete Mechanismus der Gerinne-Hang-Kopplung (Artikel I) verantwortlich ist für die zeitliche Evolution der Bachstufen nach Großereignissen (Artikel IV). KW - Geomorphologie KW - geomorphology KW - Naturgefahren KW - natural hazards KW - Gebirgsbäche KW - mountain rivers KW - Geschiebetransport KW - bedload transport KW - Bachstufen KW - channel steps KW - Gerinne-Hang-Kopplung KW - channel-hillslope coupling Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-411728 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Golly, Antonius A1 - Turowski, Jens M. A1 - Badoux, Alexandre A1 - Hovius, Niels T1 - Controls and feedbacks in the coupling of mountain channels and hillslopes JF - Geology N2 - Mountain channels can be strongly coupled with adjacent hillslopes, exchanging both mass and energy. However, hypotheses of the underlying cause and effect relations are based on indirect observations that do not resolve the mechanics of channel-hillslope coupling at the process scale. Here we present direct observational data of a coupled channel-hillslope system in the catchment area of the Erlenbach, a mountain stream in Switzerland. A slow-moving landslide flanking this alpine stream failed after a flood had eroded an alluvial step in the channel at its base, representing evidence for an upsystem link in channel-hillslope coupling. Progressive accumulation of landslide debris in the channel resulted in a renewed step, stabilizing the hillslope and restoring the channel step in a downsystem link. Thus, upsystem and downsystem coupling mechanisms are joined in a negative feedback cycle. In this cycle, debuttressing and rebuttressing due to channel bed erosion and alluviation are the dominant controls on hillslope stability. Based on an order of magnitude estimate it is plausible that the observed feedback mechanism is a relevant process in the production of coarse (>2 mm) sediment in the Erlenbach. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1130/G38831.1 SN - 0091-7613 SN - 1943-2682 VL - 45 SP - 307 EP - 310 PB - Geological Society of America CY - Boulder ER -