TY  - JOUR
A1  - Clark, Peter U.
A1  - Shakun, Jeremy D.
A1  - Marcott, Shaun A.
A1  - Mix, Alan C.
A1  - Eby, Michael
A1  - Kulp, Scott
A1  - Levermann, Anders
A1  - Milne, Glenn A.
A1  - Pfister, Patrik L.
A1  - Santer, Benjamin D.
A1  - Schrag, Daniel P.
A1  - Solomon, Susan
A1  - Stocker, Thomas F.
A1  - Strauss, Benjamin H.
A1  - Weaver, Andrew J.
A1  - Winkelmann, Ricarda
A1  - Archer, David
A1  - Bard, Edouard
A1  - Goldner, Aaron
A1  - Lambeck, Kurt
A1  - Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.
A1  - Plattner, Gian-Kasper
T1  - Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate
and sea-level change
JF  - Nature climate change
N2  - Most of the policy debate surrounding the actions needed to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change has been framed by observations of the past 150 years as well as climate and sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. The focus on this 250-year window, however, obscures some of the most profound problems associated with climate change. Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human-caused carbon emissions are likely to occur, need to be placed into a long-term context that includes the past 20 millennia, when the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia, over which time the projected impacts of anthropogenic climate change will grow and persist. This long-term perspective illustrates that policy decisions made in the next few years to decades will have profound impacts on global climate, ecosystems and human societies - not just for this century, but for the next ten millennia and beyond.
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2923
SN  - 1758-678X
SN  - 1758-6798
VL  - 6
SP  - 360
EP  - 369
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bürger, Gerd
A1  - Pfister, A.
A1  - Bronstert, Axel
T1  - Temperature-Driven Rise in Extreme Sub-Hourly Rainfall
JF  - Journal of climate
N2  - Estimates of present and future extreme sub-hourly rainfall are derived from a daily spatial followed by a sub-daily temporal downscaling, the latter of which incorporates a novel, and crucial, temperature sensitivity. Specifically, daily global climate fields are spatially downscaled to local temperature T and precipitation P, which are then disaggregated to a temporal resolution of 10 min using a multiplicative random cascade model. The scheme is calibrated and validated with a group of 21 station records of 10-min resolution in Germany. The cascade model is used in the classical (denoted as MC) and in the new T-sensitive (MC+) version, which respects local Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) effects such as CC scaling. Extreme P is positively biased in both MC versions. Observed T sensitivity is absent in MC but well reproduced by MC+. Long-term positive trends in extreme sub-hourly P are generally more pronounced and more significant in MC+ than in MC. In units of 10-min rainfall, observed centennial trends in annual exceedance counts (EC) of P > 5 mm are +29% and in 3-yr return levels (RL) +27%. For the RCP4.5-simulated future, higher extremes are projected in both versions MC and MC+: per century, EC increases by 30% for MC and by 83% for MC+; the RL rises by 14% for MC and by 33% for MC+. Because the projected daily P trends are negligible, the sub-daily signal is mainly driven by local temperature.
KW  - Extreme events
KW  - Rainfall
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Statistical techniques
KW  - Time series
KW  - Stochastic models
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0136.1
SN  - 0894-8755
SN  - 1520-0442
VL  - 32
IS  - 22
SP  - 7597
EP  - 7609
PB  - American Meteorological Soc.
CY  - Boston
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Pfister, L.
A1  - Kwadijk, J.
A1  - Musy, A.
A1  - Bronstert, Axel
A1  - Hoffmann, L.
T1  - Climate change, land use change and run-off prediction in the Rhine-Meuse basins
N2  - As a consequence of increasing winter rainfall totals and intensities over the second half of the 20th century, signs of increased flooding probability in many areas of the Rhine and Meuse basins have been documented. These changes affecting rainfall characteristics are most evidently due to an increase in westerly atmospheric circulation types. Land use changes, particularly urbanization, can have significant local effects in small basins (headwaters) with respect to flooding, especially during heavy local rainstorms, but no evidence exists that land use change has had significant effects on peak flows in the rivers Rhine and Meuse. For the 21st century, most global circulation models suggest higher winter rainfall totals. Most hydrological simulations of the Rhine-Meuse river basins suggest an increased flooding probability, with a progressive shift of the Rhine from a 'rain-fed/meltwater' river into a mainly 'rain-fed' river. A very limited effect of changes in land use on the discharge regime seems to exist for the main branches of the Meuse and Rhine rivers. For mesoscale basins, future changes in peak flows depend on the changes in the variability of extreme precipitations in combination with land use changes. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd
Y1  - 2003
SN  - 1535-1459
ER  -