TY  - JOUR
A1  - Shcherbakov, Robert
A1  - Zhuang, Jiancang
A1  - Zöller, Gert
A1  - Ogata, Yosihiko
T1  - Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake
JF  - Nature Communications
N2  - The majority of earthquakes occur unexpectedly and can trigger subsequent sequences of events that can culminate in more powerful earthquakes. This self-exciting nature of seismicity generates complex clustering of earthquakes in space and time. Therefore, the problem of constraining the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake during a future time interval is of critical importance in mitigating earthquake hazard. We address this problem by developing a methodology to compute the probabilities for such extreme earthquakes to be above certain magnitudes. We combine the Bayesian methods with the extreme value theory and assume that the occurrence of earthquakes can be described by the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence process. We analyze in detail the application of this methodology to the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake sequence. We are able to estimate retrospectively the probabilities of having large subsequent earthquakes during several stages of the evolution of this sequence.
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11958-4
SN  - 2041-1723
VL  - 10
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Zöller, Gert
A1  - Holschneider, Matthias
A1  - Hainzl, Sebastian
A1  - Zhuang, Jiancang
T1  - The largest expected earthquake magnitudes in Japan: The statistical perspective
JF  - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
N2  - Earthquake catalogs are probably the most informative data source about spatiotemporal seismicity evolution. The catalog quality in one of the most active seismogenic zones in the world, Japan, is excellent, although changes in quality arising, for example, from an evolving network are clearly present. Here, we seek the best estimate for the largest expected earthquake in a given future time interval from a combination of historic and instrumental earthquake catalogs. We extend the technique introduced by Zoller et al. (2013) to estimate the maximum magnitude in a time window of length T-f for earthquake catalogs with varying level of completeness. In particular, we consider the case in which two types of catalogs are available: a historic catalog and an instrumental catalog. This leads to competing interests with respect to the estimation of the two parameters from the Gutenberg-Richter law, the b-value and the event rate lambda above a given lower-magnitude threshold (the a-value). The b-value is estimated most precisely from the frequently occurring small earthquakes; however, the tendency of small events to cluster in aftershocks, swarms, etc. violates the assumption of a Poisson process that is used for the estimation of lambda. We suggest addressing conflict by estimating b solely from instrumental seismicity and using large magnitude events from historic catalogs for the earthquake rate estimation. Applying the method to Japan, there is a probability of about 20% that the maximum expected magnitude during any future time interval of length T-f = 30 years is m >= 9.0. Studies of different subregions in Japan indicates high probabilities for M 8 earthquakes along the Tohoku arc and relatively low probabilities in the Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai region. Finally, for scenarios related to long-time horizons and high-confidence levels, the maximum expected magnitude will be around 10.
Y1  - 2014
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120130103
SN  - 0037-1106
SN  - 1943-3573
VL  - 104
IS  - 2
SP  - 769
EP  - 779
PB  - Seismological Society of America
CY  - Albany
ER  -