TY - JOUR A1 - Salamat, Mona A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Zare, Mehdi A1 - Amini, Mortaza T1 - The maximum expected earthquake magnitudes in different future time intervals of six seismotectonic zones of Iran and its surroundings JF - Journal of seismology N2 - One of the crucial components in seismic hazard analysis is the estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude and associated uncertainty. In the present study, the uncertainty related to the maximum expected magnitude mu is determined in terms of confidence intervals for an imposed level of confidence. Previous work by Salamat et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 174:763-777, 2017) shows the divergence of the confidence interval of the maximum possible magnitude m(max) for high levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones of Iran. In this work, the maximum expected earthquake magnitude mu is calculated in a predefined finite time interval and imposed level of confidence. For this, we use a conceptual model based on a doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitudes with constant b-value and calculate the posterior distribution of mu for the time interval T-f in future. We assume a stationary Poisson process in time and a Gutenberg-Richter relation for magnitudes. The upper bound of the magnitude confidence interval is calculated for different time intervals of 30, 50, and 100 years and imposed levels of confidence alpha = 0.5, 0.1, 0.05, and 0.01. The posterior distribution of waiting times T-f to the next earthquake with a given magnitude equal to 6.5, 7.0, and7.5 are calculated in each zone. In order to find the influence of declustering, we use the original and declustered version of the catalog. The earthquake catalog of the territory of Iran and surroundings are subdivided into six seismotectonic zones Alborz, Azerbaijan, Central Iran, Zagros, Kopet Dagh, and Makran. We assume the maximum possible magnitude m(max) = 8.5 and calculate the upper bound of the confidence interval of mu in each zone. The results indicate that for short time intervals equal to 30 and 50 years and imposed levels of confidence 1 - alpha = 0.95 and 0.90, the probability distribution of mu is around mu = 7.16-8.23 in all seismic zones. KW - Maximum expected earthquake magnitude KW - Future time interval KW - Level of confidence KW - Iran Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-018-9780-7 SN - 1383-4649 SN - 1573-157X VL - 22 IS - 6 SP - 1485 EP - 1498 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Salamat, Mona A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Amini, Morteza T1 - Prediction of the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude in Iran: BT - from a Catalog with Varying Magnitude of Completeness and Uncertain Magnitudes JF - Pure and applied geophysics N2 - This paper concerns the problem of predicting the maximum expected earthquake magnitude μ in a future time interval Tf given a catalog covering a time period T in the past. Different studies show the divergence of the confidence interval of the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_{ max } for high levels of confidence (Salamat et al. 2017). Therefore, m_{ max } should be better replaced by μ (Holschneider et al. 2011). In a previous study (Salamat et al. 2018), μ is estimated for an instrumental earthquake catalog of Iran from 1900 onwards with a constant level of completeness ( {m0 = 5.5} ). In the current study, the Bayesian methodology developed by Zöller et al. (2014, 2015) is applied for the purpose of predicting μ based on the catalog consisting of both historical and instrumental parts. The catalog is first subdivided into six subcatalogs corresponding to six seismotectonic zones, and each of those zone catalogs is subsequently subdivided according to changes in completeness level and magnitude uncertainty. For this, broad and small error distributions are considered for historical and instrumental earthquakes, respectively. We assume that earthquakes follow a Poisson process in time and Gutenberg-Richter law in the magnitude domain with a priori unknown a and b values which are first estimated by Bayes' theorem and subsequently used to estimate μ. Imposing different values of m_{ max } for different seismotectonic zones namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Central Iran, Zagros, Kopet Dagh and Makran, the results show considerable probabilities for the occurrence of earthquakes with Mw ≥ 7.5 in short Tf , whereas for long Tf, μ is almost equal to m_{ max } KW - Maximum expected earthquake magnitude KW - completeness levels KW - magnitude errors KW - Bayesian method KW - Iran Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02141-3 SN - 0033-4553 SN - 1420-9136 VL - 176 IS - 8 SP - 3425 EP - 3438 PB - Springer CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Salamat, Mona A1 - Zare, Mehdi A1 - Holschneider, Matthias A1 - Zöller, Gert T1 - Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran JF - Pure and applied geophysics N2 - The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max) has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m(max) is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event, the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4): 1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m(max) is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating mmax from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible. KW - Maximum magnitude of earthquake KW - Level of confidence KW - Confidence interval Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-016-1418-5 SN - 0033-4553 SN - 1420-9136 VL - 174 SP - 763 EP - 777 PB - Springer CY - Basel ER -