TY  - JOUR
A1  - Hainzl, Sebastian
A1  - Zöller, Gert
A1  - Brietzke, Gilbert B.
A1  - Hinzen, Klaus-G.
T1  - Comparison of deterministic and stochastic earthquake simulators for fault interactions in the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany
JF  - Geophysical journal international
N2  - Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment requires a stochastic description of earthquake occurrences. While short-term seismicity models are well-constrained by observations, the recurrences of characteristic on-fault earthquakes are only derived from theoretical considerations, uncertain palaeo-events or proxy data. Despite the involved uncertainties and complexity, simple statistical models for a quasi-period recurrence of on-fault events are implemented in seismic hazard assessments. To test the applicability of statistical models, such as the Brownian relaxation oscillator or the stress release model, we perform a systematic comparison with deterministic simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction, high-resolution representations of fault systems and quasi-dynamic rupture propagation. For the specific fault network of the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany, we run both stochastic and deterministic model simulations based on the same fault geometries and stress interactions. Our results indicate that the stochastic simulators are able to reproduce the first-order characteristics of the major earthquakes on isolated faults as well as for coupled faults with moderate stress interactions. However, we find that all tested statistical models fail to reproduce the characteristics of strongly coupled faults, because multisegment rupturing resulting from a spatiotemporally correlated stress field is underestimated in the stochastic simulators. Our results suggest that stochastic models have to be extended by multirupture probability distributions to provide more reliable results.
KW  - Earthquake interaction
KW  - forecasting
KW  - and prediction
KW  - Seismicity and tectonics
KW  - Statistical seismology
Y1  - 2013
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggt271
SN  - 0956-540X
SN  - 1365-246X
VL  - 195
IS  - 1
SP  - 684
EP  - 694
PB  - Oxford Univ. Press
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Hainzl, Sebastian
A1  - Brietzke, Gilbert B.
A1  - Zöller, Gert
T1  - Quantitative earthquake forecasts resulting from static stress triggering
N2  - In recent years, the triggering of earthquakes has been discussed controversially with respect to the underlying mechanisms and the capability to evaluate the resulting seismic hazard. Apart from static stress interactions, other mechanisms including dynamic stress transfer have been proposed to be part of a complex triggering process. Exploiting the theoretical relation between long-term earthquake rates and stressing rate, we demonstrate that static stress changes resulting from an earthquake rupture allow us to predict quantitatively the aftershock activity without tuning specific model parameters. These forecasts are found to be in excellent agreement with all first-order characteristics of aftershocks, in particular, (1) the total number, (2) the power law distance decay, (3) the scaling of the productivity with the main shock magnitude, (4) the foreshock probability, and (5) the empirical Bath law providing the maximum aftershock magnitude, which supports the conclusion that static stress transfer is the major mechanism of earthquake triggering.
Y1  - 2010
UR  - http://www.agu.org/journals/jb/
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1029/2010jb007473
SN  - 0148-0227
ER  -