TY - JOUR A1 - Melnick, Daniel A1 - Li, Shaoyang A1 - Moreno, Marcos A1 - Cisternas, Marco A1 - Jara-Munoz, Julius A1 - Wesson, Robert A1 - Nelson, Alan A1 - Baez, Juan Carlos A1 - Deng, Zhiguo T1 - Back to full interseismic plate locking decades after the giant 1960 Chile earthquake JF - Nature Communications N2 - Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (M-w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to similar to 70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05989-6 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 9 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - GEN A1 - Melnick, Daniel A1 - Li, Shaoyang A1 - Moreno, Marcos A1 - Cisternas, Marco A1 - Jara-Muñoz, Julius A1 - Wesson, Robert A1 - Nelson, Alan A1 - Báez, Juan Carlos A1 - Deng, Zhiguo T1 - Back to full interseismic plate locking decades after the giant 1960 Chile earthquake T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (M-w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to similar to 70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 678 KW - south-central Chile KW - continuous GPS measurements KW - andean subduction zone KW - finite-element model KW - 2010 M8.8 maule KW - postseismic deformation KW - megathrust earthquake KW - afterslip KW - slip KW - resolution Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-425723 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 678 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Li, Shaoyang A1 - Moreno Switt, Marcos A1 - Bedford, Jonathan A1 - Rosenau, Matthias A1 - Heidbach, Oliver A1 - Melnick, Daniel A1 - Oncken, Onno T1 - Postseismic uplift of the Andes following the 2010 Maule earthquake BT - Implications for mantle rheology JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Postseismic surface deformation associated with great subduction earthquakes is controlled by asthenosphere rheology, frictional properties of the fault, and structural complexity. Here by modeling GPS displacements in the 6 years following the 2010 M-w 8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile, we investigate the impact of heterogeneous viscosity distribution in the South American subcontinental asthenosphere on the 3-D postseismic deformation pattern. The observed postseismic deformation is characterized by flexure of the South America plate with peak uplift in the Andean mountain range and subsidence in the hinterland. We find that, at the time scale of observation, over 2 orders of magnitude gradual increase in asthenosphere viscosity from the arc area toward the cratonic hinterland is needed to jointly explain horizontal and vertical displacements. Our findings present an efficient method to estimate spatial variations of viscosity, which clearly improves the fitting to the vertical signal of deformation. Lateral changes in asthenosphere viscosity can be correlated with the thermomechanical transition from weak subvolcanic arc mantle to strong subcratonic mantle, thus suggesting a stationary heterogeneous viscosity structure. However, we cannot rule out a transient viscosity structure (e.g., power law rheology) with the short time span of observation. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071995 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 44 IS - 4 SP - 1768 EP - 1776 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Li, Shaoyang A1 - Moreno, Marcos A1 - Rosenau, Matthias A1 - Melnick, Daniel A1 - Oncken, Onno T1 - Splay fault triggering by great subduction earthquakes inferred from finite element models JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - We have investigated the influence that megathrust earthquake slip has on the activation of splay faults using a 2-D finite element method (FEM), taking into account the effects of gravity and variations in the frictional strength properties of splay faults. We simulated both landward-dipping and seaward-dipping splay fault geometries, and imposed depth-variable slip distributions of subduction events. Our results indicate that the two types of splay fault exhibit a similar behavior, with variations in frictional properties along the faults affecting only the seismic magnitude. The triggering process is controlled by a critical depth. Megathrust slip concentrated at depths shallower than the critical depth will favor normal displacement, while megathrust slip concentrated at depths deeper than the critical depth is likely to result in reverse motion. Our results thus provide a useful tool for predicting the activation of secondary faults and may have direct implications for tsunami hazard research. KW - earthquake deformation KW - subduction zone earthquakes KW - splay faults KW - faulting behavior KW - FEM models KW - tsunami hazards Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058598 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 41 IS - 2 SP - 385 EP - 391 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jara-Muñoz, Julius A1 - Melnick, Daniel A1 - Li, Shaoyang A1 - Socquet, Anne A1 - Cortés-Aranda, Joaquín A1 - Brill, Dominik A1 - Strecker, Manfred T1 - The cryptic seismic potential of the Pichilemu blind fault in Chile revealed by off-fault geomorphology JF - Nature Communications N2 - The first step towards assessing hazards in seismically active regions involves mapping capable faults and estimating their recurrence times. While the mapping of active faults is commonly based on distinct geologic and geomorphic features evident at the surface, mapping blind seismogenic faults is complicated by the absence of on-fault diagnostic features. Here we investigated the Pichilemu Fault in coastal Chile, unknown until it generated a Mw 7.0 earthquake in 2010. The lack of evident surface faulting suggests activity along a partly-hidden blind fault. We used off-fault deformed marine terraces to estimate a fault-slip rate of 0.52 ± 0.04 m/ka, which, when integrated with satellite geodesy suggests a 2.12 ± 0.2 ka recurrence time for Mw~7.0 normal-faulting earthquakes. We propose that extension in the Pichilemu region is associated with stress changes during megathrust earthquakes and accommodated by sporadic slip during upper-plate earthquakes, which has implications for assessing the seismic potential of cryptic faults along convergent margins and elsewhere. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30754-1 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 13 PB - Springer Nature CY - London ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jara-Muñoz, Julius A1 - Melnick, Daniel A1 - Li, Shaoyang A1 - Socquet, Anne A1 - Cortés-Aranda, Joaquín A1 - Brill, Dominik A1 - Strecker, Manfred T1 - The cryptic seismic potential of the Pichilemu blind fault in Chile revealed by off-fault geomorphology T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The first step towards assessing hazards in seismically active regions involves mapping capable faults and estimating their recurrence times. While the mapping of active faults is commonly based on distinct geologic and geomorphic features evident at the surface, mapping blind seismogenic faults is complicated by the absence of on-fault diagnostic features. Here we investigated the Pichilemu Fault in coastal Chile, unknown until it generated a Mw 7.0 earthquake in 2010. The lack of evident surface faulting suggests activity along a partly-hidden blind fault. We used off-fault deformed marine terraces to estimate a fault-slip rate of 0.52 ± 0.04 m/ka, which, when integrated with satellite geodesy suggests a 2.12 ± 0.2 ka recurrence time for Mw~7.0 normal-faulting earthquakes. We propose that extension in the Pichilemu region is associated with stress changes during megathrust earthquakes and accommodated by sporadic slip during upper-plate earthquakes, which has implications for assessing the seismic potential of cryptic faults along convergent margins and elsewhere. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1294 Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-574616 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1294 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Melnick, Daniel A1 - Moreno, Marcos A1 - Quinteros, Javier A1 - Carlos Baez, Juan A1 - Deng, Zhiguo A1 - Li, Shaoyang A1 - Oncken, Onno T1 - The super-interseismic phase of the megathrust earthquake cycle in Chile JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Along a subduction zone, great megathrust earthquakes recur either after long seismic gaps lasting several decades to centuries or over much shorter periods lasting hours to a few years when cascading successions of earthquakes rupture nearby segments of the fault. We analyze a decade of continuous Global Positioning System observations along the South American continent to estimate changes in deformation rates between the 2010 Maule (M8.8) and 2015 Illapel (M8.3) Chilean earthquakes. We find that surface velocities increased after the 2010 earthquake, in response to continental-scale viscoelastic mantle relaxation and to regional-scale increased degree of interplate locking. We propose that increased locking occurs transiently during a super-interseismic phase in segments adjacent to a megathrust rupture, responding to bending of both plates caused by coseismic slip and subsequent afterslip. Enhanced strain rates during a super-interseismic phase may therefore bring a megathrust segment closer to failure and possibly triggered the 2015 event. KW - megathrust KW - earthquake KW - cycle KW - Chile Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071845 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 44 IS - 2 SP - 784 EP - 791 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER -