TY  - JOUR
A1  - Maraun, Douglas
A1  - Kurths, Jürgen
T1  - Epochs of phase coherence between El Nino/Southern Oscillation and Indian monsoon
N2  - We present a modern method used in nonlinear time series analysis to investigate the relation of two oscillating systems with respect to their phases, independently of their amplitudes. We study the difference of the phase dynamics between El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Monsoon on inter-annual time scales. We identify distinct epochs, especially two intervals of phase coherence, 1886 - 1908 and 1964 - 1980, corroborating earlier findings from a new point of view. A significance test shows that the coherence is very unlikely to be the result of stochastic fluctuations. We also detect so far unknown periods of coupling which are invisible to linear methods. These findings suggest that the decreasing correlation during the last decades might be a typical epoch of the ENSO/ Monsoon system having occurred repeatedly. The high time resolution of the method enables us to present an interpretation of how volcanic radiative forcing could cause the coupling
Y1  - 2005
SN  - 0094-8276
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Maraun, Douglas
A1  - Kurths, Jürgen
T1  - Cross wavelet analysis: significance testing and pitfalls
N2  - In this paper, we present a detailed evaluation of cross wavelet analysis of bivariate time series. We develop a statistical test for zero wavelet coherency based on Monte Carlo simulations. If at least one of the two processes considered is Gaussian white noise, an approximative formula for the critical value can be utilized. In a second part, typical pitfalls of wavelet cross spectra and wavelet coherency are discussed. The wavelet cross spectrum appears to be not suitable for significance testing the interrelation between two processes. Instead, one should rather apply wavelet coherency. Furthermore we investigate problems due to multiple testing. Based on these results, we show that coherency between ENSO and NAO is an artefact for most of the time from 1900 to 1995. However, during a distinct period from around 1920 to 1940, significant coherency between the two phenomena occurs
Y1  - 2004
SN  - 1023-5809
ER  -