TY - JOUR A1 - Melnick, Daniel A1 - Li, Shaoyang A1 - Moreno, Marcos A1 - Cisternas, Marco A1 - Jara-Munoz, Julius A1 - Wesson, Robert A1 - Nelson, Alan A1 - Baez, Juan Carlos A1 - Deng, Zhiguo T1 - Back to full interseismic plate locking decades after the giant 1960 Chile earthquake JF - Nature Communications N2 - Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (M-w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to similar to 70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05989-6 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 9 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Melnick, Daniel A1 - Moreno, Marcos A1 - Quinteros, Javier A1 - Carlos Baez, Juan A1 - Deng, Zhiguo A1 - Li, Shaoyang A1 - Oncken, Onno T1 - The super-interseismic phase of the megathrust earthquake cycle in Chile JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Along a subduction zone, great megathrust earthquakes recur either after long seismic gaps lasting several decades to centuries or over much shorter periods lasting hours to a few years when cascading successions of earthquakes rupture nearby segments of the fault. We analyze a decade of continuous Global Positioning System observations along the South American continent to estimate changes in deformation rates between the 2010 Maule (M8.8) and 2015 Illapel (M8.3) Chilean earthquakes. We find that surface velocities increased after the 2010 earthquake, in response to continental-scale viscoelastic mantle relaxation and to regional-scale increased degree of interplate locking. We propose that increased locking occurs transiently during a super-interseismic phase in segments adjacent to a megathrust rupture, responding to bending of both plates caused by coseismic slip and subsequent afterslip. Enhanced strain rates during a super-interseismic phase may therefore bring a megathrust segment closer to failure and possibly triggered the 2015 event. KW - megathrust KW - earthquake KW - cycle KW - Chile Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071845 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 44 IS - 2 SP - 784 EP - 791 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - GEN A1 - Melnick, Daniel A1 - Li, Shaoyang A1 - Moreno, Marcos A1 - Cisternas, Marco A1 - Jara-Muñoz, Julius A1 - Wesson, Robert A1 - Nelson, Alan A1 - Báez, Juan Carlos A1 - Deng, Zhiguo T1 - Back to full interseismic plate locking decades after the giant 1960 Chile earthquake T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (M-w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to similar to 70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 678 KW - south-central Chile KW - continuous GPS measurements KW - andean subduction zone KW - finite-element model KW - 2010 M8.8 maule KW - postseismic deformation KW - megathrust earthquake KW - afterslip KW - slip KW - resolution Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-425723 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 678 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ramezani Ziarani, Maryam A1 - Bookhagen, Bodo A1 - Schmidt, Torsten A1 - Wickert, Jens A1 - de la Torre, Alejandro A1 - Deng, Zhiguo A1 - Calori, Andrea T1 - A model for the relationship between rainfall, GNSS-derived integrated water vapour, and CAPE in the eastern central Andes JF - Remote Sensing N2 - Atmospheric water vapour content is a key variable that controls the development of deep convective storms and rainfall extremes over the central Andes. Direct measurements of water vapour are challenging; however, recent developments in microwave processing allow the use of phase delays from L-band radar to measure the water vapour content throughout the atmosphere: Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based integrated water vapour (IWV) monitoring shows promising results to measure vertically integrated water vapour at high temporal resolutions. Previous works also identified convective available potential energy (CAPE) as a key climatic variable for the formation of deep convective storms and rainfall in the central Andes. Our analysis relies on GNSS data from the Argentine Continuous Satellite Monitoring Network, Red Argentina de Monitoreo Satelital Continuo (RAMSAC) network from 1999 to 2013. CAPE is derived from version 2.0 of the ECMWF’s (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis (ERA-interim) and rainfall from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) product. In this study, we first analyse the rainfall characteristics of two GNSS-IWV stations by comparing their complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF). Second, we separately derive the relation between rainfall vs. CAPE and GNSS-IWV. Based on our distribution fitting analysis, we observe an exponential relation of rainfall to GNSS-IWV. In contrast, we report a power-law relationship between the daily mean value of rainfall and CAPE at the GNSS-IWV station locations in the eastern central Andes that is close to the theoretical relationship based on parcel theory. Third, we generate a joint regression model through a multivariable regression analysis using CAPE and GNSS-IWV to explain the contribution of both variables in the presence of each other to extreme rainfall during the austral summer season. We found that rainfall can be characterised with a higher statistical significance for higher rainfall quantiles, e.g., the 0.9 quantile based on goodness-of-fit criterion for quantile regression. We observed different contributions of CAPE and GNSS-IWV to rainfall for each station for the 0.9 quantile. Fourth, we identify the temporal relation between extreme rainfall (the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles) and both GNSS-IWV and CAPE at 6 h time steps. We observed an increase before the rainfall event and at the time of peak rainfall—both for GNSS-integrated water vapour and CAPE. We show higher values of CAPE and GNSS-IWV for higher rainfall percentiles (99th and 95th percentiles) compared to the 90th percentile at a 6-h temporal scale. Based on our correlation analyses and the dynamics of the time series, we show that both GNSS-IWV and CAPE had comparable magnitudes, and we argue to consider both climatic variables when investigating their effect on rainfall extremes. KW - Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) KW - GNSS-integrated water vapour KW - convective available potential energy (CAPE) KW - extreme rainfall KW - TRMM Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13183788 SN - 2072-4292 VL - 13 IS - 18 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - GEN A1 - Ramezani Ziarani, Maryam A1 - Bookhagen, Bodo A1 - Schmidt, Torsten A1 - Wickert, Jens A1 - de la Torre, Alejandro A1 - Deng, Zhiguo A1 - Calori, Andrea T1 - A model for the relationship between rainfall, GNSS-derived integrated water vapour, and CAPE in the eastern central Andes T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Atmospheric water vapour content is a key variable that controls the development of deep convective storms and rainfall extremes over the central Andes. Direct measurements of water vapour are challenging; however, recent developments in microwave processing allow the use of phase delays from L-band radar to measure the water vapour content throughout the atmosphere: Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based integrated water vapour (IWV) monitoring shows promising results to measure vertically integrated water vapour at high temporal resolutions. Previous works also identified convective available potential energy (CAPE) as a key climatic variable for the formation of deep convective storms and rainfall in the central Andes. Our analysis relies on GNSS data from the Argentine Continuous Satellite Monitoring Network, Red Argentina de Monitoreo Satelital Continuo (RAMSAC) network from 1999 to 2013. CAPE is derived from version 2.0 of the ECMWF’s (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis (ERA-interim) and rainfall from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) product. In this study, we first analyse the rainfall characteristics of two GNSS-IWV stations by comparing their complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF). Second, we separately derive the relation between rainfall vs. CAPE and GNSS-IWV. Based on our distribution fitting analysis, we observe an exponential relation of rainfall to GNSS-IWV. In contrast, we report a power-law relationship between the daily mean value of rainfall and CAPE at the GNSS-IWV station locations in the eastern central Andes that is close to the theoretical relationship based on parcel theory. Third, we generate a joint regression model through a multivariable regression analysis using CAPE and GNSS-IWV to explain the contribution of both variables in the presence of each other to extreme rainfall during the austral summer season. We found that rainfall can be characterised with a higher statistical significance for higher rainfall quantiles, e.g., the 0.9 quantile based on goodness-of-fit criterion for quantile regression. We observed different contributions of CAPE and GNSS-IWV to rainfall for each station for the 0.9 quantile. Fourth, we identify the temporal relation between extreme rainfall (the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles) and both GNSS-IWV and CAPE at 6 h time steps. We observed an increase before the rainfall event and at the time of peak rainfall—both for GNSS-integrated water vapour and CAPE. We show higher values of CAPE and GNSS-IWV for higher rainfall percentiles (99th and 95th percentiles) compared to the 90th percentile at a 6-h temporal scale. Based on our correlation analyses and the dynamics of the time series, we show that both GNSS-IWV and CAPE had comparable magnitudes, and we argue to consider both climatic variables when investigating their effect on rainfall extremes. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1172 KW - Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) KW - GNSS-integrated water vapour KW - convective available potential energy (CAPE) KW - extreme rainfall KW - TRMM Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-523256 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1172 ER -