TY - JOUR A1 - Agarwal, Ankit A1 - Maheswaran, Rathinasamy A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Caesar, Levke A1 - Kurths, Jürgen T1 - Wavelet-based multiscale similarity measure for complex networks JF - The European physical journal : B, Condensed matter and complex systems N2 - In recent years, complex network analysis facilitated the identification of universal and unexpected patterns in complex climate systems. However, the analysis and representation of a multiscale complex relationship that exists in the global climate system are limited. A logical first step in addressing this issue is to construct multiple networks over different timescales. Therefore, we propose to apply the wavelet multiscale correlation (WMC) similarity measure, which is a combination of two state-of-the-art methods, viz. wavelet and Pearson’s correlation, for investigating multiscale processes through complex networks. Firstly we decompose the data over different timescales using the wavelet approach and subsequently construct a corresponding network by Pearson’s correlation. The proposed approach is illustrated and tested on two synthetics and one real-world example. The first synthetic case study shows the efficacy of the proposed approach to unravel scale-specific connections, which are often undiscovered at a single scale. The second synthetic case study illustrates that by dividing and constructing a separate network for each time window we can detect significant changes in the signal structure. The real-world example investigates the behavior of the global sea surface temperature (SST) network at different timescales. Intriguingly, we notice that spatial dependent structure in SST evolves temporally. Overall, the proposed measure has an immense potential to provide essential insights on understanding and extending complex multivariate process studies at multiple scales. KW - Statistical and Nonlinear Physics Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2018-90460-6 SN - 1434-6028 SN - 1434-6036 VL - 91 IS - 11 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Totz, Sonja Juliana A1 - Eliseev, Alexey V. A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Flechsig, Michael A1 - Caesar, Levke A1 - Petoukhov, Vladimir A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - The dynamical core of the Aeolus 1.0 statistical-dynamical atmosphere model BT - validation and parameter optimization JF - Geoscientific model development : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Here, we present novel equations for the large-scale zonal-mean wind as well as those for planetary waves. Together with synoptic parameterization (as presented by Coumou et al., 2011), these form the mathematical description of the dynamical core of Aeolus 1.0. The regions of high azonal wind velocities (planetary waves) are accurately captured for all validation experiments. The zonal-mean zonal wind and the integrated lower troposphere mass flux show good results in particular in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, the model tends to produce too-weak zonal-mean zonal winds and a too-narrow Hadley circulation. We discuss possible reasons for these model biases as well as planned future model improvements and applications. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-665-2018 SN - 1991-959X SN - 1991-9603 VL - 11 IS - 2 SP - 665 EP - 679 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Caesar, Levke A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Robinson, Alexander A1 - Feulner, Georg A1 - Saba, V. T1 - Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation JF - Nature : the international weekly journal of science N2 - The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic—has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3 ± 1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature ‘fingerprint’—consisting of a pattern of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream region—and is calibrated through an ensemble of model simulations from the CMIP5 project. We find this fingerprint both in a high-resolution climate model in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the temperature trends observed since the late nineteenth century. The pattern can be explained by a slowdown in the AMOC and reduced northward heat transport, as well as an associated northward shift of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons with recent direct measurements from the RAPID project and several other studies provide a consistent depiction of record-low AMOC values in recent years. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5 SN - 0028-0836 SN - 1476-4687 VL - 556 IS - 7700 SP - 191 EP - 196 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Olson, R. A1 - An, Soon-Il A1 - Fan, Y. A1 - Evans, J. P. A1 - Caesar, Levke T1 - North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections JF - Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system N2 - Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) projections are uncertain due to both model errors, as well as internal climate variability. An AMOC slowdown projected by many climate models is likely to have considerable effects on many aspects of global and North Atlantic climate. Previous studies to make probabilistic AMOC projections have broken new ground. However, they do not drift-correct or cross-validate the projections, and do not fully account for internal variability. Furthermore, they consider a limited subset of models, and ignore the skill of models at representing the temporal North Atlantic dynamics. We improve on previous work by applying Bayesian Model Averaging to weight 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models by their skill at modeling the AMOC strength, and its temporal dynamics, as approximated by the northern North-Atlantic temperature-based AMOC Index. We make drift-corrected projections accounting for structural model errors, and for the internal variability. Cross-validation experiments give approximately correct empirical coverage probabilities, which validates our method. Our results present more evidence that AMOC likely already started slowing down. While weighting considerably moderates and sharpens our projections, our results are at low end of previously published estimates. We project mean AMOC changes between periods 1960-1999 and 2060-2099 of -4.0 Sv and -6.8 Sv for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios respectively. The corresponding average 90% credible intervals for our weighted experiments are [-7.2, -1.2] and [-10.5, -3.7] Sv respectively for the two scenarios. KW - Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation KW - Climate modeling KW - Bayesian Model Averaging KW - Model structural error KW - Probabilistic projections Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3867-7 SN - 0930-7575 SN - 1432-0894 VL - 50 IS - 11-12 SP - 4171 EP - 4188 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - THES A1 - Caesar, Levke T1 - The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and its implications for surface warming N2 - The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is likely the most well-known system of ocean currents on Earth, redistributing heat, nutrients and carbon over a large part of the Earth’s surface and affecting global climate as a result. Due to enhanced freshwater fluxes into the subpolar North Atlantic as a response to global warming, the AMOC is expected, and may have already started, to weaken and these changes will likely have global impacts. It is therefore of considerable relevance to improve our understanding of past and future AMOC changes. My thesis tries to answer some of the open questions in this field by giving strong evidence that the AMOC has already weakened over the last century, by narrowing future projections of this slowdown and by studying the impacts on global surface warming. While there have been various studies trying to reconstruct the strength of the overturning circulation in the past, often based on model simulations in combination with observations (Jackson et al., 2016, Kanzow et al., 2010) or proxies (Frajka-Williams, 2015, Latif et al., 2006), the results so far, due to lack of direct measurements, have been inconclusive. In the first paper I build on previous work that links the anomalously low sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic with the reduced meridional heat transport due to a weaker AMOC. Using the output of a high-resolution global climate model, I derive a characteristic spatial and seasonal SST fingerprint of an AMOC slowdown and an improved SST-based AMOC index. The same fingerprint is seen in the observational SSTs since the late 19th Century, giving strong evidence that since then the AMOC has slowed down. In addition, the reconstruction of the historical overturning strength with the new AMOC index agrees well with and extends the results of earlier studies as well as the direct measurements from the RAPID project and shows a strong decline of the AMOC by about 15% (3±1 Sv) since the mid-20th Century (Caesar et al., 2018). The reconstruction of the historical overturning strength with the AMOC index enables us to weight future AMOC projections based on their skill in modeling the historical AMOC as described in the second paper of this thesis (Olson et al., 2018). Using Bayesian model averaging we considerably narrow the projections of the CMIP5 ensemble to a decrease of -4.0 Sv and -6.8 Sv between the years 1960-1999 and 2060-2099 for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. These values fit to, yet are at the lower end of, previously published estimates. In the third paper I examine how the AMOC slowdown affects the global mean surface temperature (GMST) with a focus on how it will change the ocean heat uptake (OHC). Accounting for the effect of changes in the radiative forcing on the GMST, I test how AMOC variations correlate with the residual part of surface temperature changes in the past. I find that the correlation is positive which fits the understanding that the deep-water formation that is important in driving the AMOC cools the deep ocean and therefore warms the surface (Caesar et al., 2019). The future weakening of the overturning circulation could therefore delay global surface warming. Due to nonlinear behavior and scale specific changes it can be difficult to study the dominant processes and modes that drive climate variability. In the fourth paper we develop and test a new technique based on the wavelet multiscale correlation (WMC) similarity measure to study climate variability on different temporal and spatial scales (Agarwal et al., 2018). In a fifth contribution to my thesis this method is applied to the observed sea surface temperatures. The results reconfirm well-known relations between SST anomalies such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on inter-annual and decadal timescales, respectively. They furthermore give new insights into the characteristics and origins of long-range teleconnections, for example, that the teleconnection between ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole exist mainly between the northern part of the ENSO tongue and the equatorial Indian Ocean, and provides therefore valuable knowledge about the regions that are necessary to include when modeling regional climate variability at a certain scale (Agarwal et al., 2019). In summary, my PhD thesis investigates past and future AMOC variability and its effects on global mean surface temperature by utilizing a combination of observational sea surface data and the output of historical and future climate model simulations from both the high-resolution CM2.6 model as well as the CMIP5 ensemble. It further includes the development and validation of a new method to study climate variability, that, applied to the observed sea surface temperatures, gives new insight about teleconnections in the Earth System. My findings provide evidence that the AMOC has already slowed down, will continue to do so in the future, and will impact the global mean temperature. Further impacts of an AMOC slowdown may include increased sea-level rise at the U.S. east coast (Ezer, 2015), heat extremes in Europe (Duchez et al., 2016) and increased storm activity in the North Atlantic region (Jackson et al., 2015), all of which have significant socio-economic implications. KW - Climate Change KW - Ocean Circulation KW - AMOC Y1 - 2019 CY - Potsdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kurths, Jürgen A1 - Agarwal, Ankit A1 - Shukla, Roopam A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Maheswaran, Rathinasamy A1 - Caesar, Levke A1 - Krishnan, Raghavan A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - Unravelling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via a non-linear multi-scale approach JF - Nonlinear processes in geophysics N2 - A better understanding of precipitation dynamics in the Indian subcontinent is required since India's society depends heavily on reliable monsoon forecasts. We introduce a non-linear, multiscale approach, based on wavelets and event synchronization, for unravelling teleconnection influences on precipitation. We consider those climate patterns with the highest relevance for Indian precipitation. Our results suggest significant influences which are not well captured by only the wavelet coherence analysis, the state-of-the-art method in understanding linkages at multiple timescales. We find substantial variation across India and across timescales. In particular, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mainly influence precipitation in the south-east at interannual and decadal scales, respectively, whereas the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a strong connection to precipitation, particularly in the northern regions. The effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) stretches across the whole country, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) influences precipitation particularly in the central arid and semi-arid regions. The proposed method provides a powerful approach for capturing the dynamics of precipitation and, hence, helps improve precipitation forecasting. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-251-2019 SN - 1023-5809 SN - 1607-7946 VL - 26 IS - 3 SP - 251 EP - 266 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Caesar, Levke A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Feulner, Georg T1 - Reply to comment on 'On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming' JF - Environmental research letters N2 - In their comment on our paper (Caesar et al 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 024003), Chen and Tung (hereafter C&T) argue that our analysis, showing that over the last decades Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength and global mean surface temperature (GMST) were positively correlated, is incorrect. Their claim is mainly based on two arguments, neither of which is justified: first, C&T claim that our analysis is based on 'established evidence' that was only true for preindustrial conditions-this is not the case. Using data from the modern period (1947-2012), we show that the established understanding (i.e. deep-water formation in the North Atlantic cools the deep ocean and warms the surface) is correct, but our analysis is not based on this fact. Secondly, C&T claim that our results are based on a statistical analysis of only one cycle of data which was furthermore incorrectly detrended. This, too, is not true. Our conclusion that a weaker AMOC delays the current surface warming rather than enhances it, is based on several independent lines of evidence. The data we show to support this covers more than one cycle and the detrending (which was performed to avoid spurious correlations due to a common trend) does not affect our conclusion: the correlation between AMOC strength and GMST is positive. We do not claim that this is strong evidence that the two time series are in phase, but rather that this means that the two time series are not anti-correlated. KW - Atlantic meridional overturning circulation KW - global surface warming KW - ocean heat uptake Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc776 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 16 IS - 3 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - GEN A1 - Agarwal, Ankit A1 - Caesar, Levke A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Maheswaran, Rathinasamy A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - Network-based identification and characterization of teleconnections on different scales T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Sea surface temperature (SST) patterns can – as surface climate forcing – affect weather and climate at large distances. One example is El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that causes climate anomalies around the globe via teleconnections. Although several studies identified and characterized these teleconnections, our understanding of climate processes remains incomplete, since interactions and feedbacks are typically exhibited at unique or multiple temporal and spatial scales. This study characterizes the interactions between the cells of a global SST data set at different temporal and spatial scales using climate networks. These networks are constructed using wavelet multi-scale correlation that investigate the correlation between the SST time series at a range of scales allowing instantaneously deeper insights into the correlation patterns compared to traditional methods like empirical orthogonal functions or classical correlation analysis. This allows us to identify and visualise regions of – at a certain timescale – similarly evolving SSTs and distinguish them from those with long-range teleconnections to other ocean regions. Our findings re-confirm accepted knowledge about known highly linked SST patterns like ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, but also suggest new insights into the characteristics and origins of long-range teleconnections like the connection between ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 731 Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-430520 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 731 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Agarwal, Ankit A1 - Caesar, Levke A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Maheswaran, Rathinasamy A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - Network-based identification and characterization of teleconnections on different scales JF - Scientific Reports N2 - Sea surface temperature (SST) patterns can – as surface climate forcing – affect weather and climate at large distances. One example is El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that causes climate anomalies around the globe via teleconnections. Although several studies identified and characterized these teleconnections, our understanding of climate processes remains incomplete, since interactions and feedbacks are typically exhibited at unique or multiple temporal and spatial scales. This study characterizes the interactions between the cells of a global SST data set at different temporal and spatial scales using climate networks. These networks are constructed using wavelet multi-scale correlation that investigate the correlation between the SST time series at a range of scales allowing instantaneously deeper insights into the correlation patterns compared to traditional methods like empirical orthogonal functions or classical correlation analysis. This allows us to identify and visualise regions of – at a certain timescale – similarly evolving SSTs and distinguish them from those with long-range teleconnections to other ocean regions. Our findings re-confirm accepted knowledge about known highly linked SST patterns like ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, but also suggest new insights into the characteristics and origins of long-range teleconnections like the connection between ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-45423-5 SN - 2045-2322 VL - 9 PB - Macmillan Publishers Limited CY - London ER - TY - GEN A1 - Caesar, Levke A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Feulner, Georg T1 - On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - According to established understanding, deep-water formation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean keeps the deep ocean cold, counter-acting the downward mixing of heat from the warmer surface waters in the bulk of the world ocean. Therefore, periods of strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are expected to coincide with cooling of the deep ocean and warming of the surface waters. It has recently been proposed that this relation may have reversed due to global warming, and that during the past decades a strong AMOC coincides with warming of the deep ocean and relative cooling of the surface, by transporting increasingly warmer waters downward. Here we present multiple lines of evidence, including a statistical evaluation of the observed global mean temperature, ocean heat content, and different AMOC proxies, that lead to the opposite conclusion: even during the current ongoing global temperature rise a strong AMOC warms the surface. The observed weakening of the AMOC has therefore delayed global surface warming rather than enhancing it. Social Media Abstract: The overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean has weakened in response to global warming, as predicted by climate models. Since it plays an important role in transporting heat, nutrients and carbon, a slowdown will affect global climate processes and the global mean temperature. Scientists have questioned whether this slowdown has worked to cool or warm global surface temperatures. This study analyses the overturning strength and global mean temperature evolution of the past decades and shows that a slowdown acts to reduce the global mean temperature. This is because a slower overturning means less water sinks into the deep ocean in the subpolar North Atlantic. As the surface waters are cold there, the sinking normally cools the deep ocean and thereby indirectly warms the surface, thus less sinking implies less surface warming and has a cooling effect. For the foreseeable future, this means that the slowing of the overturning will likely continue to slightly reduce the effect of the general warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1426 KW - Atlantic meridional overturning circulation KW - global surface warming KW - ocean heat uptake Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-512382 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 2 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Caesar, Levke A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Feulner, Georg T1 - On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming JF - Environmental research letters N2 - According to established understanding, deep-water formation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean keeps the deep ocean cold, counter-acting the downward mixing of heat from the warmer surface waters in the bulk of the world ocean. Therefore, periods of strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are expected to coincide with cooling of the deep ocean and warming of the surface waters. It has recently been proposed that this relation may have reversed due to global warming, and that during the past decades a strong AMOC coincides with warming of the deep ocean and relative cooling of the surface, by transporting increasingly warmer waters downward. Here we present multiple lines of evidence, including a statistical evaluation of the observed global mean temperature, ocean heat content, and different AMOC proxies, that lead to the opposite conclusion: even during the current ongoing global temperature rise a strong AMOC warms the surface. The observed weakening of the AMOC has therefore delayed global surface warming rather than enhancing it. Social Media Abstract: The overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean has weakened in response to global warming, as predicted by climate models. Since it plays an important role in transporting heat, nutrients and carbon, a slowdown will affect global climate processes and the global mean temperature. Scientists have questioned whether this slowdown has worked to cool or warm global surface temperatures. This study analyses the overturning strength and global mean temperature evolution of the past decades and shows that a slowdown acts to reduce the global mean temperature. This is because a slower overturning means less water sinks into the deep ocean in the subpolar North Atlantic. As the surface waters are cold there, the sinking normally cools the deep ocean and thereby indirectly warms the surface, thus less sinking implies less surface warming and has a cooling effect. For the foreseeable future, this means that the slowing of the overturning will likely continue to slightly reduce the effect of the general warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. KW - Atlantic meridional overturning circulation KW - global surface warming KW - ocean heat uptake Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab63e3 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 15 IS - 2 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER -