TY  - GEN
A1  - Ayzel, Georgy
A1  - Varentsova, Natalia
A1  - Erina, Oxana
A1  - Sokolov, Dmitriy
A1  - Kurochkina, Liubov
A1  - Moreydo, Vsevolod
T1  - OpenForecast
BT  - The First Open-Source Operational Runoff Forecasting System in Russia
T2  - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
N2  - The development and deployment of new operational runoff forecasting systems are a strong focus of the scientific community due to the crucial importance of reliable and timely runoff predictions for early warnings of floods and flashfloods for local businesses and communities. OpenForecast, the first operational runoff forecasting system in Russia, open for public use, is presented in this study. We developed OpenForecast based only on open-source software and data-GR4J hydrological model, ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis, and ICON deterministic short-range meteorological forecasts. Daily forecasts were generated for two basins in the European part of Russia. Simulation results showed a limited efficiency in reproducing the spring flood of 2019. Although the simulations managed to capture the timing of flood peaks, they failed in estimating flood volume. However, further implementation of the parsimonious data assimilation technique significantly alleviates simulation errors. The revealed limitations of the proposed operational runoff forecasting system provided a foundation to outline its further development and improvement.
T3  - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1338 
KW  - OpenForecast
KW  - open
KW  - operational service
KW  - runoff
KW  - forecasting
KW  - Russia
Y1  - 2019
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-473295
SN  - 1866-8372
IS  - 1338
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ayzel, Georgy
A1  - Varentsova, Natalia
A1  - Erina, Oxana
A1  - Sokolov, Dmitriy
A1  - Kurochkina, Liubov
A1  - Moreydo, Vsevolod
T1  - OpenForecast
BT  - The First Open-Source Operational Runoff Forecasting System in Russia
JF  - Water : Molecular Diversity Preservation International
N2  - The development and deployment of new operational runoff forecasting systems are a strong focus of the scientific community due to the crucial importance of reliable and timely runoff predictions for early warnings of floods and flashfloods for local businesses and communities. OpenForecast, the first operational runoff forecasting system in Russia, open for public use, is presented in this study. We developed OpenForecast based only on open-source software and data-GR4J hydrological model, ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis, and ICON deterministic short-range meteorological forecasts. Daily forecasts were generated for two basins in the European part of Russia. Simulation results showed a limited efficiency in reproducing the spring flood of 2019. Although the simulations managed to capture the timing of flood peaks, they failed in estimating flood volume. However, further implementation of the parsimonious data assimilation technique significantly alleviates simulation errors. The revealed limitations of the proposed operational runoff forecasting system provided a foundation to outline its further development and improvement.
KW  - OpenForecast
KW  - open
KW  - operational service
KW  - runoff
KW  - forecasting
KW  - Russia
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/w11081546
SN  - 2073-4441
VL  - 11
IS  - 8
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ayzel, Georgy V.
T1  - Runoff predictions in ungauged arctic basins using conceptual models forced by reanalysis data
JF  - Water Resources
N2  - Due to global warming, the problem of assessing water resources and their vulnerability to climate drivers in the Arctic region has become a focus in the recent years. This study is aimed at investigating three lumped hydrological models to predict daily runoff of large-scale Arctic basins in the case of substantial data scarcity. All models were driven only by meteorological forcing reanalysis dataset without any additional information about landscape, soil, or vegetation cover properties of the studied basins. Model parameter regionalization based on transferring the whole parameter set showed good efficiency for predictions in ungauged basins. We run a blind test of the proposed methodology for ensemble runoff predictions on five sub-basins, for which only monthly observations were available, and obtained promising results for current water resources assessment for a broad domain of ungauged basins in the Russian Arctic.
KW  - hydrologic modeling
KW  - runoff
KW  - ungauged basins
KW  - reanalysis
KW  - Arctic
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807818060180
SN  - 0097-8078
SN  - 1608-344X
VL  - 45
SP  - S1
EP  - S7
PB  - Pleiades Publ.
CY  - New York
ER  -