TY - JOUR A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Botzen, W. J. Wouter A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. T1 - Flood insurance arrangements in the European Union for future flood risk under climate and socioeconomic change JF - Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions N2 - Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships. KW - Climate change adaptation KW - Flood risk KW - Insurance KW - Public-private partnerships KW - Risk reduction Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101966 SN - 0959-3780 SN - 1872-9495 VL - 58 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Botzen, W. J. Wouter A1 - Poussin, Jennifer A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. T1 - Impacts of flooding and flood preparedness on subjective well-being BT - a monetisation of the tangible and intangible impacts JF - Journal of Happiness Studies N2 - Flood disasters severely impact human subjective well-being (SWB). Nevertheless, few studies have examined the influence of flood events on individual well-being and how such impacts may be limited by flood protection measures. This study estimates the long term impacts on individual subjective well-being of flood experiences, individual subjective flood risk perceptions, and household flood preparedness decisions. These effects are monetised and placed in context through a comparison with impacts of other adverse events on well-being. We collected data from households in flood-prone areas in France. The results indicate that experiencing a flood has a large negative impact on subjective well-being that is incompletely attenuated over time. Moreover, individuals do not need to be directly affected by floods to suffer SWB losses since subjective well-being is lower for those who expect their flood risk to increase or who have seen a neighbour being flooded. Floodplain inhabitants who prepared for flooding by elevating their home have a higher subjective well-being. A monetisation of the aforementioned well-being impacts shows that a flood requires Euro150,000 in immediate compensation to attenuate SWB losses. The decomposition of the monetised impacts of flood experience into tangible losses and intangible effects on SWB shows that intangible effects are about twice as large as the tangible direct monetary flood losses. Investments in flood protection infrastructure may be under funded if the intangible SWB benefits of flood protection are not taken into account. KW - Flooding KW - Subjective well-being KW - Intangible losses KW - Tangible losses KW - Climate change KW - Adaptation KW - Climate change adaptation Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10902-017-9916-4 SN - 1389-4978 SN - 1573-7780 VL - 20 IS - 2 SP - 665 EP - 682 PB - Springer Science CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tesselaar, Max A1 - Botzen, W. J. Wouter A1 - Haer, Toon A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Tiggeloven, Timothy A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. T1 - Regional inequalities in flood insurance affordability and uptake under climate change JF - Sustainability N2 - Flood insurance coverage can enhance financial resilience of households to changing flood risk caused by climate change. However, income inequalities imply that not all households can afford flood insurance. The uptake of flood insurance in voluntary markets may decline when flood risk increases as a result of climate change. This increase in flood risk may cause substantially higher risk-based insurance premiums, reduce the willingness to purchase flood insurance, and worsen problems with the unaffordability of coverage for low-income households. A socio-economic tipping-point can occur when the functioning of a formal flood insurance system is hampered by diminishing demand for coverage. In this study, we examine whether such a tipping-point can occur in Europe for current flood insurance systems under different trends in future flood risk caused by climate and socio-economic change. This analysis gives insights into regional inequalities concerning the ability to continue to use flood insurance as an instrument to adapt to changing flood risk. For this study, we adapt the "Dynamic Integrated Flood and Insurance" (DIFI) model by integrating new flood risk simulations in the model that enable examining impacts from various scenarios of climate and socio-economic change on flood insurance premiums and consumer demand. Our results show rising unaffordability and declining demand for flood insurance across scenarios towards 2080. Under a high climate change scenario, simulations show the occurrence of a socio-economic tipping-point in several regions, where insurance uptake almost disappears. A tipping-point and related inequalities in the ability to use flood insurance as an adaptation instrument can be mitigated by introducing reforms of flood insurance arrangements. KW - climate change KW - flood risk management KW - insurance KW - socio-economic KW - tipping-point KW - adaptation KW - partial equilibrium modeling Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/su12208734 SN - 2071-1050 VL - 12 IS - 20 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. A1 - de Moel, Hans A1 - Kreibich, Heidi T1 - Preface BT - Flood-risk analysis and integrated management T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - kein abstract T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 609 KW - public-participation KW - damage KW - losses KW - vulnerability KW - Netherlands KW - adaptation KW - strategies KW - buildings KW - insurance KW - frequency Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412387 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 609 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. A1 - de Moel, Hans A1 - Kreibich, Heidi T1 - Preface: Flood-risk analysis and integrated management T2 - Natural hazards and earth system sciences Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1005-2016 SN - 1561-8633 VL - 16 SP - 1005 EP - 1010 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. A1 - Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten A1 - Baldi, M. A1 - Becker, Andrew C. A1 - Bichet, A. A1 - Bloeschl, G. A1 - Bouwer, Laurens M. A1 - Brauer, Achim A1 - Cioffi, F. A1 - Delgado, Jose Miguel Martins A1 - Gocht, M. A1 - Guzzetti, F. A1 - Harrigan, S. A1 - Hirschboeck, K. A1 - Kilsby, C. A1 - Kron, W. A1 - Kwon, H. -H. A1 - Lall, U. A1 - Merz, R. A1 - Nissen, K. A1 - Salvatti, P. A1 - Swierczynski, Tina A1 - Ulbrich, U. A1 - Viglione, A. A1 - Ward, P. J. A1 - Weiler, M. A1 - Wilhelm, B. A1 - Nied, Manuela T1 - Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management JF - Natural hazards and earth system sciences N2 - Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction of local, catchment-specific characteristics, such as meteorology, topography and geology. These traditional views have been beneficial, but they have a narrow framing. In this paper we contrast traditional views with broader perspectives that are emerging from an improved understanding of the climatic context of floods. We come to the following conclusions: (1) extending the traditional system boundaries (local catchment, recent decades, hydrological/hydraulic processes) opens up exciting possibilities for better understanding and improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. (2) Statistical approaches in flood estimation need to be complemented by the search for the causal mechanisms and dominant processes in the atmosphere, catchment and river system that leave their fingerprints on flood characteristics. (3) Natural climate variability leads to time-varying flood characteristics, and this variation may be partially quantifiable and predictable, with the perspective of dynamic, climate-informed flood risk management. (4) Efforts are needed to fully account for factors that contribute to changes in all three risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and to better understand the interactions between society and floods. (5) Given the global scale and societal importance, we call for the organization of an international multidisciplinary collaboration and data-sharing initiative to further understand the links between climate and flooding and to advance flood research. Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014 SN - 1561-8633 VL - 14 IS - 7 SP - 1921 EP - 1942 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Botzen, W. J. Wouter A1 - Laudan, Jonas A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Insights into flood-coping appraisals of protection motivation theory BT - Empirical evidence from Germany and France JF - Risk analysis N2 - Protection motivation theory (PMT) has become a popular theory to explain the risk-reducing behavior of residents against natural hazards. PMT captures the two main cognitive processes that individuals undergo when faced with a threat, namely, threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The latter describes the evaluation of possible response measures that may reduce or avert the perceived threat. Although the coping appraisal component of PMT was found to be a better predictor of protective intentions and behavior, little is known about the factors that influence individuals’ coping appraisals of natural hazards. More insight into flood-coping appraisals of PMT, therefore, are needed to better understand the decision-making process of individuals and to develop effective risk communication strategies. This study presents the results of two surveys among more than 1,600 flood-prone households in Germany and France. Five hypotheses were tested using multivariate statistics regarding factors related to flood-coping appraisals, which were derived from the PMT framework, related literature, and the literature on social vulnerability. We found that socioeconomic characteristics alone are not sufficient to explain flood-coping appraisals. Particularly, observational learning from the social environment, such as friends and neighbors, is positively related to flood-coping appraisals. This suggests that social norms and networks play an important role in flood-preparedness decisions. Providing risk and coping information can also have a positive effect. Given the strong positive influence of the social environment on flood-coping appraisals, future research should investigate how risk communication can be enhanced by making use of the observed social norms and network effects. KW - Coping appraisal KW - floods KW - protection motivation theory (PMT) KW - risk communication KW - social vulnerability Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12938 SN - 0272-4332 SN - 1539-6924 VL - 38 IS - 6 SP - 1239 EP - 1257 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - GEN A1 - Mysiak, Jaroslav A1 - Surminski, Swenja A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Mechler, Reinhard A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. T1 - Brief communication BT - Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction - success or warning sign for Paris? T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) was adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, 14-18 March 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SF-DRR) and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 524 Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410149 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 524 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Di Baldassarre, Giuliano A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. A1 - Apel, Heiko A1 - Aronica, Giuseppe T. A1 - Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten A1 - Bouwer, Laurens M. A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Caloiero, Tommaso A1 - Chinh, Do T. A1 - Cortes, Maria A1 - Gain, Animesh K. A1 - Giampa, Vincenzo A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W. A1 - Llasat, Maria Carmen A1 - Mard, Johanna A1 - Matczak, Piotr A1 - Mazzoleni, Maurizio A1 - Molinari, Daniela A1 - Dung, Nguyen V. A1 - Petrucci, Olga A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Slager, Kymo A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Ward, Philip J. A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - Adaptation to flood risk BT - Results of international paired flood event studies JF - Earth's Future N2 - As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socioeconomic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur. KW - flooding KW - vulnerability KW - global environmental change KW - adaptation Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000606 SN - 2328-4277 VL - 5 SP - 953 EP - 965 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mysiak, Jaroslav A1 - Surminski, Swenja A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Mechler, Reinhard A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. T1 - Brief communication: Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction - success or warning sign for Paris? JF - Natural hazards and earth system sciences N2 - In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) was adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, 14-18 March 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SF-DRR) and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016 SN - 1561-8633 VL - 16 SP - 2189 EP - 2193 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER -