TY - GEN A1 - Prahl, Boris F. A1 - Rybski, Diego A1 - Burghoff, Olaf A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Comparison of storm damage functions and their performance T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Winter storms are the most costly natural hazard for European residential property. We compare four distinct storm damage functions with respect to their forecast accuracy and variability, with particular regard to the most severe winter storms. The analysis focuses on daily loss estimates under differing spatial aggregation, ranging from district to country level. We discuss the broad and heavily skewed distribution of insured losses posing difficulties for both the calibration and the evaluation of damage functions. From theoretical considerations, we provide a synthesis between the frequently discussed cubic wind–damage relationship and recent studies that report much steeper damage functions for European winter storms. The performance of the storm loss models is evaluated for two sources of wind gust data, direct observations by the German Weather Service and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. While the choice of gust data has little impact on the evaluation of German storm loss, spatially resolved coefficients of variation reveal dependence between model and data choice. The comparison shows that the probabilistic models by Heneka et al. (2006) and Prahl et al. (2012) both provide accurate loss predictions for moderate to extreme losses, with generally small coefficients of variation. We favour the latter model in terms of model applicability. Application of the versatile deterministic model by Klawa and Ulbrich (2003) should be restricted to extreme loss, for which it shows the least bias and errors comparable to the probabilistic model by Prahl et al. (2012). T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 492 KW - integrated kinetic-energy KW - residential structures KW - risk-assessment KW - wind speeds KW - data series KW - model KW - buildings KW - climate KW - losses KW - homogenization Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408119 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 492 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Fritz, Michael A1 - Deshpande, B. N. A1 - Bouchard, F. A1 - Högström, E. A1 - Malenfant-Lepage, J. A1 - Morgenstern, Anne A1 - Nieuwendam, A. A1 - Oliva, M. A1 - Paquette, M. A1 - Rudy, A. C. A. A1 - Siewert, M. B. A1 - Sjöberg, Y. A1 - Weege, Stefanie T1 - Brief communication BT - Future avenues for permafrost science from the perspective of early career researchers T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Accelerating climate change and increased economic and environmental interests in permafrost-affected regions have resulted in an acute need for more directed permafrost research. In June 2014, 88 early career researchers convened to identify future priorities for permafrost research. This multidisciplinary forum concluded that five research topics deserve greatest attention: permafrost landscape dynamics, permafrost thermal modeling, integration of traditional knowledge, spatial distribution of ground ice, and engineering issues. These topics underline the need for integrated research across a spectrum of permafrost-related domains and constitute a contribution to the Third International Conference on Arctic Research Planning (ICARP III). T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 490 KW - association Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408096 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 490 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Pohl, Madlen A1 - Hoffmann, M. A1 - Hagemann, Ulrike A1 - Giebels, M. A1 - Albiac Borraz, E. A1 - Sommer, Michael A1 - Augustin, Jürgen T1 - Dynamic C and N stocks BT - key factors controlling the C gas exchange of maize in heterogenous peatland T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The drainage and cultivation of fen peatlands create complex small-scale mosaics of soils with extremely variable soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and groundwater levels (GWLs). To date, the significance of such sites as sources or sinks for greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4 is still unclear, especially if the sites are used for cropland. As individual control factors such as GWL fail to account for this complexity, holistic approaches combining gas fluxes with the underlying processes are required to understand the carbon (C) gas exchange of drained fens. It can be assumed that the stocks of SOC and N located above the variable GWL - defined as dynamic C and N stocks - play a key role in the regulation of the plant- and microbially mediated CO2 fluxes in these soils and, inversely, for CH4. To test this assumption, the present study analysed the C gas exchange (gross primary production - GPP; ecosystem respiration - R-eco; net ecosystem exchange - NEE; CH4) of maize using manual chambers for 4 years. The study sites were located near Paulinenaue, Germany, where we selected three soil types representing the full gradient of GWL and SOC stocks (0-1 m) of the landscape: (a) Haplic Arenosol (AR; 8 kg C m(-2)); (b) Mollic Gleysol (GL; 38 kg C m(-2)); and (c) Hemic Histosol (HS; 87 kg C m(-2)). Daily GWL data were used to calculate dynamic SOC (SOCdyn) and N (N-dyn) stocks. Average annual NEE differed considerably among sites, ranging from 47 +/- 30 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in AR to -305 +/- 123 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in GL and -127 +/- 212 g C m(-2) yr(-1) in HS. While static SOC and N stocks showed no significant effect on C fluxes, SOCdyn and N-dyn and their interaction with GWL strongly influenced the C gas exchange, particularly NEE and the GPP : R-eco ratio. Moreover, based on nonlinear regression analysis, 86% of NEE variability was explained by GWL and SOCdyn. The observed high relevance of dynamic SOC and N stocks in the aerobic zone for plant and soil gas exchange likely originates from the effects of GWL-dependent N availability on C formation and transformation processes in the plant-soil system, which promote CO2 input via GPP more than CO2 emission via R-eco. The process-oriented approach of dynamic C and N stocks is a promising, potentially generalisable method for system-oriented investigations of the C gas exchange of groundwater-influenced soils and could be expanded to other nutrients and soil characteristics. However, in order to assess the climate impact of arable sites on drained peatlands, it is always necessary to consider the entire range of groundwater-influenced mineral and organic soils and their respective areal extent within the soil landscape. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 496 KW - soil organic-matter KW - Zea-mays L. KW - term management impacts KW - carbon-dioxide exchange KW - net ecosystem exchange KW - nitrogen-fertilization KW - water-table KW - northeast germany KW - CO2 fluxes KW - mineral fertilization Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408184 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 496 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Rodil, Iván F. A1 - Jaramillo, Eduardo A1 - Hubbard, David M. A1 - Dugan, Jenifer E. A1 - Melnick, Daniel A1 - Velasquez, Carlos T1 - Responses of dune plant communities to continental uplift from a major earthquake BT - sudden releases from coastal squeeze T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Vegetated dunes are recognized as important natural barriers that shelter inland ecosystems and coastlines suffering daily erosive impacts of the sea and extreme events, such as tsunamis. However, societal responses to erosion and shoreline retreat often result in man-made coastal defence structures that cover part of the intertidal and upper shore zones causing coastal squeeze and habitat loss, especially for upper shore biota, such as dune plants. Coseismic uplift of up to 2.0 m on the Peninsula de Arauco (South central Chile, ca. 37.5 degrees S) caused by the 2010 Maule earthquake drastically modified the coastal landscape, including major increases in the width of uplifted beaches and the immediate conversion of mid to low sandy intertidal habitat to supralittoral sandy habitat above the reach of average tides and waves. To investigate the early stage responses in species richness, cover and across-shore distribution of the hitherto absent dune plants, we surveyed two formerly intertidal armoured sites and a nearby intertidal unarmoured site on a sandy beach located on the uplifted coast of Llico (Peninsula de Arauco) over two years. Almost 2 years after the 2010 earthquake, dune plants began to recruit, then rapidly grew and produced dune hummocks in the new upper beach habitats created by uplift at the three sites. Initial vegetation responses were very similar among sites. However, over the course of the study, the emerging vegetated dunes of the armoured sites suffered a slowdown in the development of the spatial distribution process, and remained impoverished in species richness and cover compared to the unarmoured site. Our results suggest that when released from the effects of coastal squeeze, vegetated dunes can recover without restoration actions. However, subsequent human activities and management of newly created beach and dune habitats can significantly alter the trajectory of vegetated dune development. Management that integrates the effects of natural and human induced disturbances, and promotes the development of dune vegetation as natural barriers can provide societal and conservation benefits in coastal ecosystems. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 516 KW - Chile earthquake KW - sandy-beach KW - New-Zealand KW - salt spray KW - vegetation KW - conservation KW - disturbance KW - protection KW - habitats KW - zonation Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409629 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 516 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Pradhan, Prajal A1 - Fischer, Günther A1 - Velthuizen, Harrij van A1 - Reusser, Dominik Edwin A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Closing yield gaps BT - how sustainable can we be? T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Global food production needs to be increased by 60-110% between 2005 and 2050 to meet growing food and feed demand. Intensification and/or expansion of agriculture are the two main options available to meet the growing crop demands. Land conversion to expand cultivated land increases GHG emissions and impacts biodiversity and ecosystem services. Closing yield gaps to attain potential yields may be a viable option to increase the global crop production. Traditional methods of agricultural intensification often have negative externalities. Therefore, there is a need to explore location-specific methods of sustainable agricultural intensification. We identified regions where the achievement of potential crop calorie production on currently cultivated land will meet the present and future food demand based on scenario analyses considering population growth and changes in dietary habits. By closing yield gaps in the current irrigated and rain-fed cultivated land, about 24% and 80% more crop calories can respectively be produced compared to 2000. Most countries will reach food self-sufficiency or improve their current food self-sufficiency levels if potential crop production levels are achieved. As a novel approach, we defined specific input and agricultural management strategies required to achieve the potential production by overcoming biophysical and socioeconomic constraints causing yield gaps. The management strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, advanced soil management, land improvement, management strategies coping with weather induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. Finally, we estimated the required fertilizers (N, P2O5, and K2O) to attain the potential yields. Globally, N-fertilizer application needs to increase by 45-73%, P2O5-fertilizer by 22-46%, and K2O-fertilizer by 2-3 times compared to the year 2010 to attain potential crop production. The sustainability of such agricultural intensification largely depends on the way management strategies for closing yield gaps are chosen and implemented. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 491 KW - climate-change KW - management KW - intensification KW - productivity KW - agriculture Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408105 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 491 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hoffmann, Linda Sarah A1 - Kretschmer, Axel A1 - Lawrenz, Bettina A1 - Hocher, Berthold A1 - Stasch, Johannes-Peter T1 - Chronic activation of heme free Guanylate Cyclase leads to renal protection in Dahl salt-sensitive rats T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The nitric oxide (NO)/soluble guanylate cyclase (sGC)/cyclic guanosine monophasphate (cGMP)-signalling pathway is impaired under oxidative stress conditions due to oxidation and subsequent loss of the prosthetic sGC heme group as observed in particular in chronic renal failure. Thus, the pool of heme free sGC is increased under pathological conditions. sGC activators such as cinaciguat selectively activate the heme free form of sGC and target the disease associated enzyme. In this study, a therapeutic effect of long-term activation of heme free sGC by the sGC activator cinaciguat was investigated in an experimental model of salt-sensitive hypertension, a condition that is associated with increased oxidative stress, heme loss from sGC and development of chronic renal failure. For that purpose Dahl/ss rats, which develop severe hypertension upon high salt intake, were fed a high salt diet (8% NaCl) containing either placebo or cinaciguat for 21 weeks. Cinaciguat markedly improved survival and ameliorated the salt-induced increase in blood pressure upon treatment with cinaciguat compared to placebo. Renal function was significantly improved in the cinaciguat group compared to the placebo group as indicated by a significantly improved glomerular filtration rate and reduced urinary protein excretion. This was due to anti-fibrotic and antiinflammatory effects of the cinaciguat treatment. Taken together, this is the first study showing that long-term activation of heme free sGC leads to renal protection in an experimental model of hypertension and chronic kidney disease. These results underline the promising potential of cinaciguat to treat renal diseases by targeting the disease associated heme free form of sGC. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 489 KW - signal-transduction system KW - nitric-oxide KW - oxidative stress KW - independent activation KW - endothelial dysfunction KW - pulmonary-hypertension KW - cardiovascular-disease KW - therapeutic target KW - heart-failure KW - cyclic-GMP Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408088 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 489 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Marc, Odin A1 - Hovius, Niels T1 - Amalgamation in landslide maps BT - effects and automatic detection T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Inventories of individually delineated landslides are a key to understanding landslide physics and mitigating their impact. They permit assessment of area–frequency distributions and landslide volumes, and testing of statistical correlations between landslides and physical parameters such as topographic gradient or seismic strong motion. Amalgamation, i.e. the mapping of several adjacent landslides as a single polygon, can lead to potentially severe distortion of the statistics of these inventories. This problem can be especially severe in data sets produced by automated mapping. We present five inventories of earthquake-induced landslides mapped with different materials and techniques and affected by varying degrees of amalgamation. Errors on the total landslide volume and power-law exponent of the area–frequency distribution, resulting from amalgamation, may be up to 200 and 50%, respectively. We present an algorithm based on image and digital elevation model (DEM) analysis, for automatic identification of amalgamated polygons. On a set of about 2000 polygons larger than 1000 m2, tracing landslides triggered by the 1994 Northridge earthquake, the algorithm performs well, with only 2.7–3.6% incorrectly amalgamated landslides missed and 3.9–4.8% correct polygons incorrectly identified as amalgams. This algorithm can be used broadly to check landslide inventories and allow faster correction by automating the identification of amalgamation. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 485 KW - 2008 Wenchuan earthquake KW - size distributions KW - mountain belt KW - sediment KW - erosion KW - Taiwan KW - model Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408075 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 485 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Reil, Daniela A1 - Imholt, Christian A1 - Eccard, Jana A1 - Jacob, Jens T1 - Beech fructification and bank vole population dynamics BT - combined analyses of promoters of Human Puumala virus infections in Germany T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The transmission of wildlife zoonoses to humans depends, amongst others, on complex interactions of host population ecology and pathogen dynamics within host populations. In Europe, the Puumala virus (PUUV) causes nephropathia epidemica in humans. In this study we investigated complex interrelations within the epidemic system of PUUV and its rodent host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). We suggest that beech fructification and bank vole abundance are both decisive factors affecting human PUUV infections. While rodent host dynamics are expected to be directly linked to human PUUV infections, beech fructification is a rather indirect predictor by serving as food source for PUUV rodent hosts. Furthermore, we examined the dependence of bank vole abundance on beech fructification. We analysed a 12-year (2001-2012) time series of the parameters: beech fructification (as food resource for the PUUV host), bank vole abundance and human incidences from 7 Federal States of Germany. For the first time, we could show the direct interrelation between these three parameters involved in human PUUV epidemics and we were able to demonstrate on a large scale that human PUUV infections are highly correlated with bank vole abundance in the present year, as well as beech fructification in the previous year. By using beech fructification and bank vole abundance as predictors in one model we significantly improved the degree of explanation of human PUUV incidence. Federal State was included as random factor because human PUUV incidence varies considerably among states. Surprisingly, the effect of rodent abundance on human PUUV infections is less strong compared to the indirect effect of beech fructification. Our findings are useful to facilitate the development of predictive models for host population dynamics and the related PUUV infection risk for humans and can be used for plant protection and human health protection purposes. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 484 KW - Fagus-Sylvatica L KW - Hantavirus infection KW - Nephrorathia-Epidemica KW - Rodent populations KW - Lyme-disease KW - risk-factors KW - Clethrionomys-Glareolus KW - temporal dynamics KW - renal-failure Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408064 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 484 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Elliott, J. A1 - Heinke, J. A1 - Arneth, A. A1 - Bierkens, M. F. P. A1 - Ciais, Philippe A1 - Clark, D. B. A1 - Deryng, D. A1 - Doell, P. A1 - Falloon, P. A1 - Fekete, B. A1 - Folberth, Christian A1 - Friend, A. D. A1 - Gellhorn, C. A1 - Gosling, S. N. A1 - Haddeland, I. A1 - Khabarov, N. A1 - Lomas, M. A1 - Masaki, Y. A1 - Nishina, K. A1 - Neumann, K. A1 - Oki, T. A1 - Pavlick, R. A1 - Ruane, A. C. A1 - Schmid, E. A1 - Schmitz, C. A1 - Stacke, T. A1 - Stehfest, E. A1 - Tang, Q. A1 - Wisser, D. A1 - Huber, V. A1 - Piontek, Franziska A1 - Warszawski, L. A1 - Schewe, Jacob A1 - Lotze-Campen, Hermann A1 - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim T1 - A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections BT - land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties T2 - Earth system dynamics N2 - Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 457 KW - global food demand KW - water availability KW - elevated CO2 KW - future KW - carbon KW - system KW - productivity KW - agriculture KW - emissions KW - scarcity Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407968 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Üstün, Suayib A1 - Bartetzko, Verena A1 - Börnke, Frederik T1 - The Xanthomonas effector XopJ triggers a conditional hypersensitive response upon treatment of N. benthamiana leaves with salicylic acid T2 - Frontiers in plant science N2 - XopJ is a Xanthomonas type III effector protein that promotes bacterial virulence on susceptible pepper plants through the inhibition of the host cell proteasome and a resultant suppression of salicylic acid (SA) - dependent defense responses. We show here that Nicotiana benthamiana leaves transiently expressing XopJ display hypersensitive response (HR) -like symptoms when exogenously treated with SA. This apparent avirulence function of XopJ was further dependent on effector myristoylation as well as on an intact catalytic triad, suggesting a requirement of its enzymatic activity for HR-like symptom elicitation. The ability of XopJ to cause a HR-like symptom development upon SA treatment was lost upon silencing of SGT1 and NDR1, respectively, but was independent of EDS1 silencing, suggesting that XopJ is recognized by an R protein of the CC-NBS-LRR class. Furthermore, silencing of NPR1 abolished the elicitation of HR-like symptoms in XopJ expressing leaves after SA application. Measurement of the proteasome activity indicated that proteasome inhibition by XopJ was alleviated in the presence of SA, an effect that was not observed in NPR1 silenced plants. Our results suggest that XopJ - triggered HR-like symptoms are closely related to the virulence function of the effector and that XopJ follows a two-signal model in order to elicit a response in the non-host plant N. benthamiana. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 432 KW - Xanthomonas KW - type-III effector KW - XopJ KW - avirulence KW - salicylic acid Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-406537 ER -