TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Moloney, Kirk A. A1 - Schwager, Monika A1 - Körner, Katrin A1 - Blaum, Niels T1 - Consequences of correlations between habitat modifications and negative impact of climate change for regional species survival JF - Agriculture, ecosystems & environment : an international journal for scientific research on the relationship of agriculture and food production to the biosphere N2 - While several empirical and theoretical studies have clearly shown the negative effects of climate or landscape changes on population and species survival only few of them addressed combined and correlated consequences of these key environmental drivers. This also includes positive landscape changes such as active habitat management and restoration to buffer the negative effects of deteriorating climatic conditions. In this study, we apply a conceptual spatial modelling approach based on functional types to explore the effects of both positive and negative correlations between changes in habitat and climate conditions on the survival of spatially structured populations. We test the effect of different climate and landscape change scenarios on four different functional types that represent a broad spectrum of species characterised by their landscape level carrying capacity, the local population turnover rates at the patch level (K-strategies vs. r-strategies) and dispersal characterstics. As expected, simulation results show that correlated landscape and climatic changes can accelerate (in case of habitat loss or degradation) or slow down (in case of habitat gain or improvement) regional species extinction. However, the strength of the combined changes depends on local turnover at the patch level, the overall landscape capacity of the species, and its specific dispersal characteristics. Under all scenarios of correlated changes in habitat and climate conditions we found the highest sensitivity for functional types representing species with a low landscape capacity but a high population growth rate and a strong density regulation causing a high turnover at the local patch level. The relative importance of habitat loss or habitat degradation, in combination with climate deterioration, differed among the functional types. However, an increase in regional capacity revealed a similar response pattern: For all types, habitat improvement led to higher survival times than habitat gain, i.e. the establishment of new habitat patches. This suggests that improving local habitat quality at a regional scale is a more promising conservation strategy under climate change than implementing new habitat patches. This conceptual modelling study provides a general framework to better understand and support the management of populations prone to complex environmental changes. KW - Functional types KW - Spatially explicit modelling KW - Dynamic landscapes KW - Species conservation KW - Habitat fragmentation KW - Habitat management Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2010.12.019 SN - 0167-8809 VL - 145 IS - 1 SP - 49 EP - 58 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Czuba, Wojciech A1 - Grad, Marek A1 - Mjelde, Rolf A1 - Guterch, Aleksander A1 - Libak, Audun A1 - Krüger, Frank A1 - Murai, Yoshio A1 - Schweitzer, Johannes T1 - Continent-ocean-transition across a trans-tensional margin segment: off Bear Island, Barents Sea JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - P>A 410 km long Ocean Bottom Seismometer profile spanning from the Bear Island, Barents Sea to oceanic crust formed along the Mohns Ridge has been modelled by use of ray-tracing with regard to observed P-waves. The northeastern part of the model represents typical continental crust, thinned from ca. 30 km thickness beneath the Bear Island to ca. 13 km within the Continent-Ocean-Transition. Between the Hornsund FZ and the Kn circle divide legga Fault, a 3-4 km thick sedimentary basin, dominantly of Permian/Carboniferous age, is modelled beneath the ca. 1.5 km thick layer of volcanics (Vestbakken Volcanic Province). The P-wave velocity in the 3-4 km thick lowermost continental crust is significantly higher than normal (ca. 7.5 km s-1). We interpret this layer as a mixture of mafic intrusions and continental crystalline blocks, dominantly related to the Paleocene-Early Eocene rifting event. The crystalline portion of the crust within the south-western part of the COT consists of a ca. 30 km wide and ca. 6 km thick high-velocity (7.3 km s-1) body. We interpret the body as a ridge of serpentinized peridotites. The magmatic portion of the ocean crust accreted along the Knipovich Ridge from continental break-up at ca. 35 Ma until ca. 20 Ma is 3-5 km thicker than normal. We interpret the increased magmatism as a passive response to the bending of this southernmost part of the Knipovich Ridge. The thickness of the magmatic portion of the crust formed along the Mohns Ridge at ca. 20 Ma decreases to ca. 3 km, which is normal for ultra slow spreading ridges. KW - Controlled source seismology KW - Dynamics of lithosphere and mantle KW - Crustal structure KW - Atlantic Ocean Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04873.x SN - 0956-540X VL - 184 IS - 2 SP - 541 EP - 554 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hayhoe, Shelby J. A1 - Neill, Christopher A1 - Porder, Stephen A1 - McHorney, Richard A1 - Lefebvre, Paul A1 - Coe, Michael T. A1 - Elsenbeer, Helmut A1 - Krusche, Alex V. T1 - Conversion to soy on the Amazonian agricultural frontier increases streamflow without affecting stormflow dynamics JF - Global change biology N2 - Large-scale soy agriculture in the southern Brazilian Amazon now rivals deforestation for pasture as the region's predominant form of land use change. Such landscape-level change can have substantial consequences for local and regional hydrology, but these effects remain relatively unstudied in this ecologically and economically important region. We examined how the conversion to soy agriculture influences water balances and stormflows using stream discharge (water yields) and the timing of discharge (stream hydrographs) in small (2.5-13.5 km2) forested and soy headwater watersheds in the Upper Xingu Watershed in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. We monitored water yield for 1 year in three forested and four soy watersheds. Mean daily water yields were approximately four times higher in soy than forested watersheds, and soy watersheds showed greater seasonal variability in discharge. The contribution of stormflows to annual streamflow in all streams was low (< 13% of annual streamflow), and the contribution of stormflow to streamflow did not differ between land uses. If the increases in water yield observed in this study are typical, landscape-scale conversion to soy substantially alters water-balance, potentially altering the regional hydrology over large areas of the southern Amazon. KW - Amazon KW - baseflow KW - hydrology KW - land use change KW - soybean cultivation KW - water yield Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02392.x SN - 1354-1013 VL - 17 IS - 5 SP - 1821 EP - 1833 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Becken, Michael A1 - Ritter, Oliver A1 - Bedrosian, Paul A. A1 - Weckmann, Ute T1 - Correlation between deep fluids, tremor and creep along the central San Andreas fault JF - Nature : the international weekly journal of science N2 - The seismicity pattern along the San Andreas fault near Parkfield and Cholame, California, varies distinctly over a length of only fifty kilometres. Within the brittle crust, the presence of frictionally weak minerals, fault-weakening high fluid pressures and chemical weakening are considered possible causes of an anomalously weak fault northwest of Parkfield(1-4). Non-volcanic tremor from lower-crustal and upper-mantle depths(5-7) is most pronounced about thirty kilometres southeast of Parkfield and is thought to be associated with high pore-fluid pressures at depth(8). Here we present geophysical evidence of fluids migrating into the creeping section of the San Andreas fault that seem to originate in the region of the uppermost mantle that also stimulates tremor, and evidence that along-strike variations in tremor activity and amplitude are related to strength variations in the lower crust and upper mantle. Interconnected fluids can explain a deep zone of anomalously low electrical resistivity that has been imaged by magnetotelluric data southwest of the Parkfield-Cholame segment. Near Cholame, where fluids seem to be trapped below a high-resistivity cap, tremor concentrates adjacent to the inferred fluids within a mechanically strong zone of high resistivity. By contrast, sub-vertical zones of low resistivity breach the entire crust near the drill hole of the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth, northwest of Parkfield, and imply pathways for deep fluids into the eastern fault block, coincident with a mechanically weak crust and the lower tremor amplitudes in the lower crust. Fluid influx to the fault system is consistent with hypotheses of fault-weakening high fluid pressures in the brittle crust. Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10609 SN - 0028-0836 VL - 480 IS - 7375 SP - 87 EP - U248 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mohsen, Amjad A1 - Asch, Günter A1 - Mechie, James A1 - Kind, Rainer A1 - Hofstetter, Rami A1 - Weber, Michael H. A1 - Stiller, M. A1 - Abu-Ayyash, Khalil T1 - Crustal structure of the Dead Sea Basin (DSB) from a receiver function analysis JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - The Dead Sea Transform (DST) is a major left-lateral strike-slip fault that accommodates the relative motion between the African and Arabian plates, connecting a region of extension in the Red Sea to the Taurus collision zone in Turkey over a length of about 1100 km. The Dead Sea Basin (DSB) is one of the largest basins along the DST. The DSB is a morphotectonic depression along the DST, divided into a northern and a southern sub-basin, separated by the Lisan salt diapir. We report on a receiver function study of the crust within the multidisciplinary geophysical project, DEad Sea Integrated REsearch (DESIRE), to study the crustal structure of the DSB. A temporary seismic network was operated on both sides of the DSB between 2006 October and 2008 April. The aperture of the network is approximately 60 km in the E-W direction crossing the DSB on the Lisan peninsula and about 100 km in the N-S direction. Analysis of receiver functions from the DESIRE temporary network indicates that Moho depths vary between 30 and 38 km beneath the area. These Moho depth estimates are consistent with results of near-vertical incidence and wide-angle controlled-source techniques. Receiver functions reveal an additional discontinuity in the lower crust, but only in the DSB and west of it. This leads to the conclusion that the internal crustal structure east and west of the DSB is different at the present-day. However, if the 107 km left-lateral movement along the DST is taken into account, then the region beneath the DESIRE array where no lower crustal discontinuity is observed would have lain about 18 Ma ago immediately adjacent to the region under the previous DESERT array west of the DST where no lower crustal discontinuity is recognized. KW - Transform faults KW - Crustal structure Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04853.x SN - 0956-540X VL - 184 IS - 1 SP - 463 EP - 476 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ehlert, C. A1 - Frank, M. A1 - Haley, B. A. A1 - Boeniger, Urs A1 - De Deckker, P. A1 - Gingele, F. X. T1 - Current transport versus continental inputs in the eastern Indian Ocean Radiogenic isotope signatures of clay size sediments JF - Geochemistry, geophysics, geosystems N2 - Analyses of radiogenic neodymium (Nd), strontium (Sr), and lead (Pb) isotope compositions of clay-sized detrital sediments allow detailed tracing of source areas of sediment supply and present and past transport of particles by water masses in the eastern Indian Ocean. Isotope signatures in surface sediments range from -21.5 (epsilon Nd), 0.8299 ((87)Sr/(86S)r), and 19.89 ((206)Pb/(204)Pb) off northwest Australia to + 0.7 (epsilon Nd), 0.7069 ((87)Sr/(86)Sr), and 17.44 ((206)Pb/(204)Pb) southwest of Java. The radiogenic isotope signatures primarily reflect petrographic characteristics of the surrounding continental bedrocks but are also influenced by weathering-induced grain size effects of Pb and Sr isotope systems with superimposed features that are caused by current transport of clay-sized particles, as evidenced off Australia where a peculiar isotopic signature characterizes sediments underlying the southward flowing Leeuwin Current and the northward flowing West Australian Current (WAC). Gravity core FR10/95-GC17 off west Australia recorded a major isotopic change from Last Glacial Maximum values of -10 (epsilon Nd), 0.745 ((87S)r/(86)Sr), and 18.8 ((206)Pb/(204)Pb) to Holocene values of -22 (epsilon Nd), 0.8 ((87)Sr/(86)Sr), and 19.3 ((206)Pb/(204)Pb), which documents major climatically driven changes of the WAC and in local riverine particle supply from Australia during the past 20 kyr. In contrast, gravity core FR10/95-GC5 located below the present-day pathway of the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) shows a much smaller isotopic variability, indicating a relatively stable ITF hydrography over most of the past 92 kyr. Only the surface sediments differ significantly in their isotopic composition, indicating substantial changes in erosional sources attributed to a change of the current regime during the past 5 kyr. KW - Indonesian throughflow KW - Leeuwin Current KW - clay sediments KW - past circulation KW - radiogenic isotopes KW - weathering inputs Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GC003544 SN - 1525-2027 VL - 12 IS - 12 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hothorn, Torsten A1 - Müller, Jörg A1 - Schroeder, Boris A1 - Kneib, Thomas A1 - Brandl, Roland T1 - Decomposing environmental, spatial, and spatiotemporal components of species distributions JF - Ecological monographs : a publication of the Ecological Society of America. N2 - Species distribution models are an important tool to predict the impact of global change on species distributional ranges and community assemblages. Although considerable progress has been made in the statistical modeling during the last decade, many approaches still ignore important features of species distributions, such as nonlinearity and interactions between predictors, spatial autocorrelation, and nonstationarity, or at most incorporate only some of these features. Ecologists, however, require a modeling framework that simultaneously addresses all these features flexibly and consistently. Here we describe such an approach that allows the estimation of the global effects of environmental variables in addition to local components dealing with spatiotemporal autocorrelation as well as nonstationary effects. The local components can be used to infer unknown spatiotemporal processes; the global component describes how the species is influenced by the environment and can be used for predictions, allowing the fitting of many well-known regression relationships, ranging from simple linear models to complex decision trees or from additive models to models inspired by machine learning procedures. The reliability of spatiotemporal predictions can be qualitatively predicted by separately evaluating the importance of local and global effects. We demonstrate the potential of the new approach by modeling the breeding distribution of the Red Kite (Milvus milvus), a bird of prey occurring predominantly in Western Europe, based on presence/absence data from two mapping campaigns using grids of 40 km 2 in Bavaria. The global component of the model selected seven environmental variables extracted from the CORINE and WorldClim databases to predict Red Kite breeding. The effect of altitude was found to be nonstationary in space, and in addition, the data were spatially autocorrelated, which suggests that a species distribution model that does not allow for spatially varying effects and spatial autocorrelation would have ignored important processes determining the distribution of Red Kite breeding across Bavaria. Thus, predictions from standard species distribution models that do not allow for real-world complexities may be considerably erroneous. Our analysis of Red Kite breeding exemplifies the potential of the innovative approach for species distribution models. The method is also applicable to modeling count data. KW - boosting KW - model selection KW - nonstationarity KW - spatial autocorrelation KW - species distribution model KW - structured additive model KW - variable selection Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1890/10-0602.1 SN - 0012-9615 VL - 81 IS - 2 SP - 329 EP - 347 PB - Wiley CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kallmeyer, Jens ED - Laskin, AI ED - Sariaslani, S ED - Gadd, GM T1 - Detection and quantification of microbial cells in subsurface sediments JF - Advances in applied microbiology JF - Advances in Applied Microbiology N2 - Quantification of total cell abundance is one of the most fundamental parameters in the exploration of subsurface life. Despite all recent advances in molecular techniques, this parameter is usually determined by fluorescence microscopy. In order to obtain reliable and reproducible results, it is important not just to focus on the actual cell enumeration but also to consider the entire chain of processing. Starting with the retrieval of the sample, over subsampling and sample processing to the final step of fluorescence microscopy, there are many potential sources of contamination that have to be assessed and, if possible, avoided. Because some degree of sample contamination will always occur, it is necessary to employ some form of contamination control. Different tracers are available, each one with its specific advantages and drawbacks. In many cases, the problems arise not after the sample has arrived in a well-equipped laboratory with highly trained personnel, but much earlier at the drill site or in a field camp. In this review, I discuss the different aspects of cell enumeration in subsurface sediment, evaluating every step in the long process chain. Y1 - 2011 SN - 978-0-12-387048-3 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-387048-3.00003-9 SN - 0065-2164 VL - 76 SP - 79 EP - 103 PB - Elsevier CY - San Diego ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hiemer, Stefan A1 - Scherbaum, Frank A1 - Rößler, Dirk A1 - Kühn, Nicolas T1 - Determination of tau(0) and Rock Site kappa from Records of the 2008/2009 Earthquake Swarm in Western Bohemia JF - Seismological research letters Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.82.3.387 SN - 0895-0695 VL - 82 IS - 3 SP - 387 EP - 393 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - El Cerrito ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kotkova, Jana A1 - O'Brien, Patrick J. A1 - Ziemann, Martin Andreas T1 - Diamond and coesite discovered in Saxony-type granulite solution to the Variscan garnet peridotite enigma JF - Geology N2 - The pressures required for diamond and coesite formation far exceed conditions reached by even the deepest present-day orogenic crustal roots. Therefore the occurrence of metamorphosed continental crust containing these minerals requires processes other than crustal thickening to have operated in the past. Here we report the first in situ finding of diamond and coesite, characterized by micro-Raman spectroscopy, in high-pressure granulites otherwise indistinguishable from granulites found associated with garnet peridotite throughout the European Variscides. Our discovery confirms the provenance of Europe's first reliable diamond, the "Bohemian diamond," found in A.D. 1870, and also represents the first robust evidence for ultrahigh-pressure conditions in a major Variscan crustal rock type. A process of deep continental subduction is required to explain the metamorphic pressures and the granulite-garnet peridotite association, and thus tectonometamorphic models for these rocks involving a deep orogenic crustal root need to be significantly modified. Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1130/G31971.1 SN - 0091-7613 VL - 39 IS - 7 SP - 667 EP - 670 PB - American Institute of Physics CY - Boulder ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike A1 - Ni, Jian A1 - Birks, H. John B. A1 - Böhner, Jürgen T1 - Driving forces of mid-Holocene vegetation shifts on the upper Tibetan Plateau, with emphasis on changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations JF - Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal N2 - Numerous pollen records across the upper Tibetan Plateau indicate that in the early part of the mid-Holocene, Kobresia-rich high-alpine meadows invaded areas formerly dominated by alpine steppe vegetation rich in Artemisia. We examine climate, land-use, and CO2 concentration changes as potential drivers for this marked vegetation change. The climatic implications of these vegetational shifts are explored by applying a newly developed pollen-based moisture-balance transfer-function to fossil pollen spectra from Koucha Lake on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau (34.0 degrees N; 97.2 degrees E; 4540 m a.s.l.) and Xuguo Lake on the central Tibetan Plateau (31.97 degrees N; 90.3 degrees E; 4595 m a.s.l.), both located in the meadow-steppe transition zone. Reconstructed moisture-balances were markedly reduced (by similar to 150-180 mm) during the early mid-Holocene compared to the late-Holocene. These findings contradict most other records from the Indian monsoonal realm and also most non-pollen records from the Tibetan Plateau that indicate a rather wet early- and mid-Holocene. The extent and timing of anthropogenic land-use involving grazing by large herbivores on the upper Tibetan Plateau and its possible impacts on high-alpine vegetation are still mostly unknown due to the lack of relevant archaeological evidence. Arguments against a mainly anthropogenic origin of Kobresia high-alpine meadows are the discovery of the widespread expansion of obviously 'natural' Kobresia meadows on the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau during the Lateglacial period indicating the natural origin of this vegetation type and the lack of any concurrence between modern human-driven vegetation shifts and the mid-Holocene compositional changes. Vegetation types are known to respond to atmospheric CO2 concentration changes, at least on glacial-interglacial scales. This assumption is confirmed by our sensitivity study where we model Tibetan vegetation at different CO2 concentrations of 375 (present-day), 260 (early Holocene), and 650 ppm (future scenario) using the BIOME4 global vegetation model. Previous experimental studies confirm that vegetation growing on dry and high sites is particularly sensitive to CO2 changes. Here we propose that the replacement of drought-resistant alpine steppes (that are well adapted to low CO2 concentrations) by mesic Kobresia meadows can, at least, be partly interpreted as a response to the increase of CO2 concentration since 7000 years ago due to fertilization and water-saving effects. Our hypothesis is corroborated by former CO2 fertilization experiments performed on various dry grasslands and by the strong recent expansion of high-alpine meadows documented by remote sensing studies in response to recent CO2 increases. KW - Tibetan Plateau KW - Pollen KW - Holocene KW - Transfer function KW - Kobresia meadow KW - Atmospheric CO2 concentration Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.03.007 SN - 0277-3791 VL - 30 IS - 15-16 SP - 1907 EP - 1917 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - THES A1 - Sietz, Diana T1 - Dryland vulnerability : typical patterns and dynamics in support of vulnerability reduction efforts T1 - Vulnerabilität in Trockengebieten: typische Muster und Dynamiken als Beitrag für Ansätze zur Verminderung von Vulnerabilität N2 - The pronounced constraints on ecosystem functioning and human livelihoods in drylands are frequently exacerbated by natural and socio-economic stresses, including weather extremes and inequitable trade conditions. Therefore, a better understanding of the relation between these stresses and the socio-ecological systems is important for advancing dryland development. The concept of vulnerability as applied in this dissertation describes this relation as encompassing the exposure to climate, market and other stresses as well as the sensitivity of the systems to these stresses and their capacity to adapt. With regard to the interest in improving environmental and living conditions in drylands, this dissertation aims at a meaningful generalisation of heterogeneous vulnerability situations. A pattern recognition approach based on clustering revealed typical vulnerability-creating mechanisms at global and local scales. One study presents the first analysis of dryland vulnerability with global coverage at a sub-national resolution. The cluster analysis resulted in seven typical patterns of vulnerability according to quantitative indication of poverty, water stress, soil degradation, natural agro-constraints and isolation. Independent case studies served to validate the identified patterns and to prove the transferability of vulnerability-reducing approaches. Due to their worldwide coverage, the global results allow the evaluation of a specific system’s vulnerability in its wider context, even in poorly-documented areas. Moreover, climate vulnerability of smallholders was investigated with regard to their food security in the Peruvian Altiplano. Four typical groups of households were identified in this local dryland context using indicators for harvest failure risk, agricultural resources, education and non-agricultural income. An elaborate validation relying on independently acquired information demonstrated the clear correlation between weather-related damages and the identified clusters. It also showed that household-specific causes of vulnerability were consistent with the mechanisms implied by the corresponding patterns. The synthesis of the local study provides valuable insights into the tailoring of interventions that reflect the heterogeneity within the social group of smallholders. The conditions necessary to identify typical vulnerability patterns were summarised in five methodological steps. They aim to motivate and to facilitate the application of the selected pattern recognition approach in future vulnerability analyses. The five steps outline the elicitation of relevant cause-effect hypotheses and the quantitative indication of mechanisms as well as an evaluation of robustness, a validation and a ranking of the identified patterns. The precise definition of the hypotheses is essential to appropriately quantify the basic processes as well as to consistently interpret, validate and rank the clusters. In particular, the five steps reflect scale-dependent opportunities, such as the outcome-oriented aspect of validation in the local study. Furthermore, the clusters identified in Northeast Brazil were assessed in the light of important endogenous processes in the smallholder systems which dominate this region. In order to capture these processes, a qualitative dynamic model was developed using generalised rules of labour allocation, yield extraction, budget constitution and the dynamics of natural and technological resources. The model resulted in a cyclic trajectory encompassing four states with differing degree of criticality. The joint assessment revealed aggravating conditions in major parts of the study region due to the overuse of natural resources and the potential for impoverishment. The changes in vulnerability-creating mechanisms identified in Northeast Brazil are well-suited to informing local adjustments to large-scale intervention programmes, such as “Avança Brasil”. Overall, the categorisation of a limited number of typical patterns and dynamics presents an efficient approach to improving our understanding of dryland vulnerability. Appropriate decision-making for sustainable dryland development through vulnerability reduction can be significantly enhanced by pattern-specific entry points combined with insights into changing hotspots of vulnerability and the transferability of successful adaptation strategies. N2 - Die Grenzen ökologischer Funktionen und menschlicher Lebensweisen in Trockengebieten werden häufig durch natürlichen und sozio-ökonomischen Stress, wie extreme Wetterereignisse und ungerechte Handelsbedingungen, weiter verengt. Zur Förderung der Entwicklung in Trockengebieten ist es daher wichtig, die Beziehung zwischen den Stressfaktoren und den sozio-ökologischen Systemen besser zu verstehen. Das Konzept der Vulnerabilität, welches in der vorliegenden Dissertation angewandt wird, beschreibt dieses Verhältnis durch die Exposition, Sensitivität und Anpassungsfähigkeit von Systemen im Hinblick auf Klima-, Markt- und anderen Stress. Bezüglich des Interesses, die Umwelt- und Lebensbedingungen in Trockengebieten zu verbessern, zielt diese Dissertation darauf ab, die vielschichtigen Ursachen und Veränderungen von Vulnerabilität sinnvoll zu verallgemeinern. Eine clusterbasierte Mustererkennung zeigte typische Mechanismen auf, welche Vulnerabilität auf globaler und lokaler Ebene verursachen. Dabei stellt die globale Studie die erste flächendeckende Untersuchung von Vulnerabilität in Trockengebieten mit sub-nationaler Auflösung dar. Die Clusteranalyse identifizierte sieben typische Muster basierend auf der quantitativen Beschreibung von Armut, Wasserknappheit, Bodendegradation, natürlichen Produktionshemmnissen und Isolation. Die Gültigkeit der ermittelten Cluster und die Übertragbarkeit von Anpassungsmaßnahmen innerhalb ähnlicher Gebiete wurden anhand unabhängiger Fallstudien belegt. Die flächendeckende Erfassung erlaubt es, die Vulnerabilität eines Systems in seinem größeren Kontext zu bewerten, auch in weniger gut durch Fallstudien dokumentierten Gebieten. Weiterhin wurde die Klimavulnerabilität von Kleinbauern bezüglich ihrer Nahrungsmittelsicherung im peruanischen Altiplano untersucht. In diesem lokalen Kontext wurden vier Cluster von Haushalten gemäß ihrer Produktionsrisiken, landwirtschaftlichen Ressourcen, der Bildung und ihres nicht-landwirtschaftlichen Einkommens unterschieden. Eine erweiterte Gültigkeitsprüfung unter Nutzung unabhängig erhobener Informationen stellte heraus, dass wetterbedingte Schäden mit den ermittelten Clustern korrelieren und dass haushaltsspezifische Schadensursachen mit den durch die Muster angezeigten Mechanismen übereinstimmen. Die lokale Studie liefert wertvolle Hinweise auf bedarfsgerechte Eingriffe unter Beachtung der Heterogenität innerhalb der sozialen Gruppe der Kleinbauern. Die notwendigen Bedingungen zur Erkennung typischer Muster ergaben fünf methodische Schritte. Ihre Darlegung soll die Anwendung der gewählten Methode in zukünftigen Vulnerabilitätsstudien anregen und erleichtern. Die fünf Schritte umfassen die Ableitung relevanter Ursache-Wirkungs-Hypothesen, die Quantifizierung der Mechanismen, die Bewertung von Robustheit und Gültigkeit sowie die Ordnung der ermittelten Muster nach dem Grad der Vulnerabilität. Dabei ist die genaue Beschreibung der Hypothesen eine wesentliche Voraussetzung für die Quantifizierung der grundlegenden Prozesse sowie eine einheitliche Interpretation, Gültigkeitsprüfung und Ordnung der ermittelten Muster. Besondere Beachtung finden skalenbedingte Aspekte, wie beispielsweise die ergebnisorientierte Gültigkeitsprüfung in der lokalen Studie. Weiterhin wurden die in Nordostbrasilien ermittelten Cluster im Hinblick auf wichtige endogene Prozesse in den dort vorherrschenden kleinbäuerlichen Nutzungssystemen untersucht. Diese Prozesse umfassen die Aufteilung der Arbeitskraft, die landwirtschaftliche Produktion sowie Einkommens- und Ressourcendynamiken. Sie wurden in einem qualitativen dynamischen Modell erfasst, welches eine zyklische Trajektorie mit vier unterschiedlich problematischen Entwicklungszuständen ergab. Als besonders problematischer Aspekt verschärfte sich die Vulnerabilität in weiten Teilen des Untersuchungsgebietes durch die Übernutzung natürlicher Ressourcen und die Möglichkeit weiterer Verarmung. Die in Nordostbrasilien gezeigten Veränderungen sind dazu geeignet, groß angelegte Entwicklungsprogramme, wie zum Beispiel “Avança Brasil”, angemessen an lokale Gegebenheiten anzupassen. Insgesamt ermöglicht es die Kategorisierung einer begrenzten Anzahl typischer Muster und Veränderungen, die Vulnerabilität in Trockengebieten besser zu verstehen. Eine nachhaltige Entwicklung von Trockengebieten basierend auf der Minderung von Vulnerabilität kann durch musterspezifische Ansätze zusammen mit Hinweisen zu Veränderungen im Schweregrad und zur Übertragbarkeit erfolgreicher Anpassungsstrategien wirkungsvoll unterstützt werden. KW - Kausalstruktur KW - Archetyp KW - mehrfache Stressfaktoren KW - ländliche Entwicklung KW - räumlich explizit KW - Causal structure KW - archetype KW - multiple stress factors KW - rural development KW - spatially explicit Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-58097 ER - TY - THES A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian T1 - Earthquake triggering and interaction T1 - Erdbebenentstehung und Wechselwirkungen N2 - Earthquake faults interact with each other in many different ways and hence earthquakes cannot be treated as individual independent events. Although earthquake interactions generally lead to a complex evolution of the crustal stress field, it does not necessarily mean that the earthquake occurrence becomes random and completely unpredictable. In particular, the interplay between earthquakes can rather explain the occurrence of pronounced characteristics such as periods of accelerated and depressed seismicity (seismic quiescence) as well as spatiotemporal earthquake clustering (swarms and aftershock sequences). Ignoring the time-dependence of the process by looking at time-averaged values – as largely done in standard procedures of seismic hazard assessment – can thus lead to erroneous estimations not only of the activity level of future earthquakes but also of their spatial distribution. Therefore, it exists an urgent need for applicable time-dependent models. In my work, I aimed at better understanding and characterization of the earthquake interactions in order to improve seismic hazard estimations. For this purpose, I studied seismicity patterns on spatial scales ranging from hydraulic fracture experiments (meter to kilometer) to fault system size (hundreds of kilometers), while the temporal scale of interest varied from the immediate aftershock activity (minutes to months) to seismic cycles (tens to thousands of years). My studies revealed a number of new characteristics of fluid-induced and stress-triggered earthquake clustering as well as precursory phenomena in earthquake cycles. Data analysis of earthquake and deformation data were accompanied by statistical and physics-based model simulations which allow a better understanding of the role of structural heterogeneities, stress changes, afterslip and fluid flow. Finally, new strategies and methods have been developed and tested which help to improve seismic hazard estimations by taking the time-dependence of the earthquake process appropriately into account. N2 - Erdbeben interagieren in vielfältiger Weise miteinander, weshalb sie nicht als einzelne, unabhängige Ereignisse behandelt werden können. Obwohl diese Erdbebenwechselwirkungen in der Regel zu einer komplexen Entwicklung des Spannungsfelds führen, bedeutet dies nicht zwangsläufig, dass Erdbeben rein zufällig und völlig unberechenbar auftreten. Insbesondere kann das Zusammenspiel zwischen Erdbeben zu ausgeprägten Charakteristiken wie Phasen beschleunigter Aktivität, seismischer Ruhe sowie raumzeitlichen Erdbebenanhäufungen (Schwärme und Nachbebensequenzen) führen. Die Vernachlässigung der Zeitabhängigkeit des Erdbebenprozesses kann somit zu fehlerhaften Einschätzungen nicht nur des zukünftigen Aktivitätsniveaus, sondern auch der räumlichen Verteilung führen. Daher besteht ein dringender Bedarf an geeigneten zeitabhängigen Seismizitätsmodellen. Meine Arbeit zielt auf ein verbessertes Verständnis und Charakterisierung der Interaktionen von Erdbeben ab, um Abschätzungen der Erdbebengefährdung zu verbessern. Zu diesem Zweck untersuche ich Seismizitätsmuster auf den räumlichen Skalen von hydraulisch induzierten Öffnungsbrüchen (Meter bis Kilometer) bis zu Verwerfungssystemen (Hunderte von Kilometern), während die zeitlichen Skalen von Nachbebenaktivität (Minuten bis Monate) bis zu seismischen Zyklen (bis zu mehrere tausendend Jahre) reichen. Meine Studien ergeben eine Reihe neuer Merkmale von Fluid- und Spannungs-induzierten Erdbeben. Ergänzend zur reinen Datenanalyse der Erdbeben- und Deformationsdaten liefern statistische und Physik-basierte Modellsimulationen ein besseres Verständnis der Rolle von strukturellen Heterogenitäten, Spannungsänderungen und postseismischen Prozessen. Schließlich konnten neue Strategien und Methoden entwickelt und getestet werden, mit denen die Erdbebengefährdung besser eingeschätzt werden kann, indem die Zeitabhängigkeit des Erdbebens Prozess angemessen berücksichtigt wird. KW - Erdbebeninteraktion KW - Erdbebengefährdung KW - earthquake interaction KW - seismic hazard Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-50095 ER - TY - THES A1 - Junginger, Annett T1 - East African climate variability on different time scales : the Suguta Valley in the African-Asian Monsoon Domain T1 - Ostafrikanische Klimavariabilität auf unterschiedlichen Zeitskalen : das Suguta Valley in der Afrikanisch-Asiatischen Monsun Region N2 - Motivation | Societal and economic needs of East Africa rely entirely on the availability of water, which is governed by the regular onset and retreat of the rainy seasons. Fluctuations in the amounts of rainfall has tremendous impact causing widespread famine, disease outbreaks and human migrations. Efforts towards high resolution forecasting of seasonal precipitation and hydrological systems are therefore needed, which requires high frequency short to long-term analyses of available climate data that I am going to present in this doctoral thesis by three different studies. 15,000 years - Suguta Valley | The main study of this thesis concentrated on the understanding of humidity changes within the last African Humid Period (AHP, 14.8-5.5 ka BP). The nature and causes of intensity variations of the West-African (WAM) and Indian Summer monsoons (ISM) during the AHP, especially their exact influence on regional climate relative to each other, is currently intensely debated. Here, I present a high-resolution multiproxy lake-level record spanning the AHP from the remote Suguta Valley in the northern Kenya Rift, located between the WAM and ISM domains. The presently desiccated valley was during the AHP filled by a 300 m deep and 2200 km2 large palaeo-lake due to an increase in precipitation of only 26%. The record explains the synchronous onset of large lakes in the East African Rift System (EARS) with the longitudinal shift of the Congo Air Boundary (CAB) over the East African and Ethiopian Plateaus, as the direct consequence of an enhanced atmospheric pressure gradient between East-Africa and India due to a precessional-forced northern hemisphere insolation maximum. Pronounced, and abrupt lake level fluctuations during the generally wet AHP are explained by small-scale solar irradiation changes weakening this pressure gradient atmospheric moisture availability preventing the CAB from reaching the study area. Instead, the termination of the AHP occurred, in a non-linear manner due to a change towards an equatorial insolation maximum ca. 6.5 ka ago extending the AHP over Ethiopia and West-Africa. 200 years - Lake Naivasha | The second part of the thesis focused on the analysis of a 200 year-old sediment core from Lake Naivasha in the Central Kenya Rift, one of the very few present freshwater lakes in East Africa. The results revealed and confirmed, that the appliance of proxy records for palaeo-climate reconstruction for the last 100 years within a time of increasing industrialisation and therefore human impact to the proxy-record containing sites are broadly limited. Since the middle of the 20th century, intense anthropogenic activity around Lake Naivasha has led to cultural eutrophication, which has overprinted the influence of natural climate variation to the lake usually inferred from proxy records such as diatoms, transfer-functions, geochemical and sedimentological analysis as used in this study. The results clarify the need for proxy records from remote unsettled areas to contribute with pristine data sets to current debates about anthropologic induced global warming since the past 100 years. 14 years - East African Rift | In order to avoid human influenced data sets and validate spatial and temporal heterogeneities of proxy-records from East Africa, the third part of the thesis therefore concentrated on the most recent past 14 years (1996-2010) detecting climate variability by using remotely sensed rainfall data. The advancement in the spatial coverage and temporal resolutions of rainfall data allow a better understanding of influencing climate mechanisms and help to better interpret proxy-records from the EARS in order to reconstruct past climate conditions. The study focuses on the dynamics of intraseasonal rainfall distribution within catchments of eleven lake basins in the EARS that are often used for palaeo-climate studies. We discovered that rainfall in adjacent basins exhibits high complexities in the magnitudes of intraseasonal variability, biennial to triennial precipitation patterns and even are not necessarily correlated often showing opposite trends. The variability among the watersheds is driven by the complex interaction of topography, in particular the shape, length and elevation of the catchment and its relative location to the East African Rift System and predominant influence of the ITCZ or CAB, whose locations and intensities are dependent on the strength of low pressure cells over India, SST variations in the Atlantic, Pacific or Indian Ocean, QBO phases and the 11-year solar cycle. Among all seasons we observed, January-September is the season of highest and most complex rainfall variability, especially for the East African Plateau basins, most likely due to the irregular penetration and sensitivity of the CAB. N2 - Motivation | Die sozialen und ökonomischen Bedürfnisse Ostafrikas sind in erster Linie von der Wasserverfügbarkeit abhängig, welche durch das regelmäßige Einsetzen der Regenzeiten bestimmt wird. Jegliche Veränderungen der Wasserverfügbarkeit innerhalb der Regenzeiten verursachen Hungersnöte, Ausbruch von Krankheiten oder auch Bevölkerungswanderungen. Klärung der Ursachen von Niederschlagsvariabilitäten erfordert die Auswertung von hochauflösenden Kurz- als auch Langzeitanalysen, welche ich in dieser Arbeit durch drei Studien präsentieren werde. 15,000 Jahre - Suguta Valley | Die Hauptstudie dieser Doktorarbeit befasste sich mit dem Verständnis von Feuchtigkeitsschwankungen innerhalb der Afrikanischen Feuchtperiode (AHP, 5.5 - 14.8 ka BP). In dieser Studie präsentiere ich einen hoch-auflösenden Seespiegel Datensatz aus dem abgeschiedenen, unbewohnten Suguta Tal im nördlichen Grabenbruch in Kenia. Das momentan extrem trockene Tal war während der AHP mit einem 300 m tiefen und 2200 km2 großen Paläo-See bedeckt, was aus nur 26% zusätzlichem Niederschlag resultierte. Diese Erhöhung wurde vermutlich aus der Kombination aus erhöhter atmosphärer Feuchteverfügbarkeit infolge erhöhter früh-Holozäner präzessionsgesteuerten Einstrahlung auf der nördlichen Hemisphere sowie der Verschiebung der feuchten Kongo Luftmassengrenze (CAB) ostwärts über das Ostafrikanische und Äthiopische Plateau erreicht als direkte Folge eines erhöhten atmosphärischen Druckgradienten. Abrupte, starkte Seespiegelschwankungen innerhalb der generellen Feuchtphase sind auf geringe Veränderungen in der solaren Ausstrahlung zurückzufühen, welche zu einer Schwächung des Druckgradienten führten und damit den Einfluss der CAB im Untersuchungsgebiet verhinderten zusammen mit einer allgemeinene Reduktion der atmosphärischen Feuchteverfügbarkeit. Das Ende der AHP erfolgte im Gegensatz dazu eher nicht-linear aufgrund des Wechsels zu einem äquatorialen Einstrahlungsmaximum vor 6.5 ka, welches die AHP in Äthiopien und West-Afrika verlängerte. 200 Jahre - Lake Naivasha | Der zweite Teil dieser Arbeit konzentrierte sich auf die Analyse eines Sedimentkern des Naivasha See aus dem zentralen Kenia Rift über die letzten 200 Jahre, einem der wenigen Frischwasserseen in Ostafrika. Die natürliche Klimavariabilität sollte mittels Proxy-Datensätzen von Diatomeen, Transferfunktionen, geochemischen und sedimentologischen Analysen in dieser Studie aufgedeckt werden. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dass seit Mitte des 20. Jahrhundert der zunehmende Einfluss des Menschen um den Naivasha See zu kultureller Eutrophierung geführt, welche den Einfluss der natürlichen Klimavariabilität auf den See überprägte. Die Gründe liegen in der Zeit, welche von steigender Industrialisierung und deshalb erhöhtem menschlichen Einfluss auf die Proxy-Daten enthaltenden Seen geprägt ist. Die Ergebnisse verdeutlichen die Notwendigkeit von Proxy-Daten aus unbesiedelten Gebieten, wenn man ,reine‘ Daten zur momentanen Debatte über den anthropogen gesteuerten Klimawandel der letzten 100 Jahre beitragen will. 14 Jahre - Ostafrikanisches Rift | Um räumliche Unregelmäßigkeiten in Proxy-Daten von Ostafrika richtig zu verstehen, konzentrierte sich der dritte Teil dieser Arbeit auf die Auswertung von ausschließlich fernerkundlich erworbenen heutigen, täglichen Niederschlagsreihen (1996-2010). Dies erlaubt ein besseres Verständnis über die möglichen klimatischen Einflussmechanismen und die Abschätzung ihres Einflusses auf die Paläo-Variabilität. Die Studie beschäftigt sich mit der Dynamik saisonaler Niederschlagsverteilung innerhalb der Einzugsgebiete von elf Seebecken im Ostafrikanischen Riftsystem, welche oft für Paläo-Klimastudien benutzt werden. Die Studie ergab, dass Niederschläge in angrenzenden Becken tatsächlich höchst unterschiedlich in ihrer Intensität sein können und dabei zwei- bis dreijährigen Niederschlagsmuster folgen oder sogar gegensätzliche Trends zeigen. Die Variabilität der einzelnen Seebecken wird durch die komplexe Wechselwirkung der Topographie, Form, Länge und Höhe des Einzugsgebietes, der relativen Lage im EARS, sowie dem Einfluss und Intensität der ITCZ und CAB bestimmt, welche z.B. abhängig von der Entwicklung besonders starker Tiefdruckgebiet über Indien, Veränderungen der Meeres-oberflächentemperaturen, QBO und dem 11-Jahres Sonnenzyklus sind. Im direkten Vergleich aller untersuchten Monate stellte sich heraus, dass Juli-September die Jahreszeit mit komplexester Niederschlagsvariabilität ist, besonders für die Becken des Ostafrikanischen Plateau, was durch den unregelmäßigen Einfluss der CAB verursacht wird. KW - Ostafrikanisches Grabensystem KW - Suguta Tal KW - Kongo Luftmassengrenze KW - Solare Austrahlung KW - Naivasha See KW - East African Rift System KW - Suguta Valley KW - Congo Air Boundary KW - Solar irradiation KW - Lake Naivasha Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-56834 ER - TY - THES A1 - Wolff, Christian Michael T1 - East African monsoon variability since the last glacial T1 - Ostafrikanische Monsunvariabilität seit dem letztem Glazial N2 - The impact of global warming on human water resources is attracting increasing attention. No other region in this world is so strongly affected by changes in water supply than the tropics. Especially in Africa, the availability and access to water is more crucial to existence (basic livelihoods and economic growth) than anywhere else on Earth. In East Africa, rainfall is mainly influenced by the migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with more rain and floods during El Niño and severe droughts during La Niña. The forecasting of East African rainfall in a warming world requires a better understanding of the response of ENSO-driven variability to mean climate. Unfortunately, existing meteorological data sets are too short or incomplete to establish a precise evaluation of future climate. From Lake Challa near Mount Kilimanjaro, we report records from a laminated lake sediment core spanning the last 25,000 years. Analyzing a monthly cleared sediment trap confirms the annual origin of the laminations and demonstrates that the varve-thicknesses are strongly linked to the duration and strength of the windy season. Given the modern control of seasonal ITCZ location on wind and rain in this region and the inverse relation between the two, thicker varves represent windier and thus drier years. El Niño (La Niña) events are associated with wetter (drier) conditions in east Africa and decreased (increased) surface wind speeds. Based on this fact, the thickness of the varves can be used as a tool to reconstruct a) annual rainfall b) wind season strength, and c) ENSO variability. Within this thesis, I found evidence for centennialscale changes in ENSO-related rainfall variability during the last three millennia, abrupt changes in variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, and an overall reduction in East African rainfall and its variability during the Last Glacial period. Climate model simulations support forward extrapolation from these lake-sediment data, indicating that a future Indian Ocean warming will enhance East Africa’s hydrological cycle and its interannual variability in rainfall. Furthermore, I compared geochemical analyses from the sediment trap samples with a broad range of limnological, meteorological, and geological parameters to characterize the impact of sedimentation processes from the in-situ rocks to the deposited sediments. As a result an excellent calibration for existing μXRF data from Lake Challa over the entire 25,000 year long profile was provided. The climate development during the last 25,000 years as reconstructed from the Lake Challa sediments is in good agreement with other studies and highlights the complex interactions between long-term orbital forcing, atmosphere, ocean and land surface conditions. My findings help to understand how abrupt climate changes occur and how these changes correlate with climate changes elsewhere on Earth. N2 - Änderungen des Klimas in einer sich erwärmenden Erde haben große Auswirkungen auf den globalen und lokalen Wasserhaushalt und rücken anhand starker Extremereignisse immer häufiger in den Fokus der Öffentlichkeit. Besonders die Regionen der Tropen sind von derartigen Einschnitten stark gefährdet. Der jährliche Niederschlag in Ostafrika ist stark mit der saisonalen Wanderung der ITCZ (Innertropischen Konvergenzzone) sowie mit dem El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phänomen verbunden. Extreme Regenfälle und Überschwemmungen während El Niño Jahren stehen Trockenheit und Dürren in La Niña Jahren gegenüber. Prognosen über zukünftige Veränderungen der ostafrikanischen Niederschläge erfordern ein verbessertes Verständnis der ENSO antreibenden Faktoren. Unglücklicherweise sind die vorhandenen meteorologischen Datenreihen nicht lang genug oder besitzen nicht die benötigte Homogenität. Einen hilfreichen Beitrag können jährlich geschichtete Seesedimente des am Fuße des Kilimandscharo gelegenen Lake Challa leisten. Anhand einer monatlich aufgelösten Sedimentfalle konnte ich nachweisen, dass die rund 25.000 Jahre zurückreichenden Sedimente eine jährliche Struktur besitzen sowie die Dicke dieser jährlichen Schichtung (Warve) stark mit der Dauer und Intensität der saisonal windreichen/trockenen Jahreszeit verbunden ist. Dickere Warven repräsentieren windige/trockene Jahre, wohingegen dünnere Warven für windschwache und feuchte Jahre stehen. Stärkere Winde und kaum Niederschläge treten oft im Zusammenhang mit einem La Niña Ereignis in Ostafrika auf, wohingegen während eines El Niño Ereignisses häufig extreme Niederschläge mit wenig Wind zu beobachten sind. Anhand der Vermessung der Warven kann man verschiedene Klimaparameter rekonstruieren: a) den jährlichen Niederschlag b) jährliche Windgeschwindigkeiten und ihre Intensitäten sowie c) ENSO Variabilitäten. Die in meiner Arbeit gewonnenen klimatischen Informationen zeigen starke Änderungen der ENSO Variabilität innerhalb der letzten 3.000 Jahre mit starken Unterschieden während der Kleinen Eiszeit und während der Mittelalterlichen Warmzeit sowie deutlich trockene und windige Bedingungen mit sehr geringen ENSO Aktivitäten im glazialem Zeitraum (18.500 und 21.000 Jahren). Modellberechnungen unterstützen diese Ergebnisse einer Zunahme von Extremereignissen und feuchteren Bedingungen im Zuge einer Erwärmung des Indischen Ozeans. Mittels geochemischer Analysen der Sedimentfallenproben sowie die daraus resultierende Verknüpfung mit limnologischen und meteorologischen Parametern, konnte ich einen entscheidenden Beitrag zur erfolgreichen Interpretation der existierenden 25.000 Jahre langen μXRF Datensätze leisten. Der Anteil an allochthonem und autochthonem Eintrag kann so genau klassifiziert werden. Das dadurch gewonnene Bild der Klimaentwicklung der letzten 25.000 Jahre deckt sich hervorragend mit anderen Studien und ermöglicht Einblicke in das komplexe Zusammenspiel zwischen Ozean-Atmosphäre und Umwelt auf dem afrikanischen Kontinent. Besonders die für die Ostafrikaforschung extrem hohe Auflösung der Daten wird helfen, die abrupten Klimawechsel und Interaktionen besser verstehen zu können. KW - Lake Challa KW - Sedimentfalle KW - Warve KW - ENSO KW - Monsun KW - Lake Challa KW - sediment trap KW - varve KW - ENSO KW - monsoon Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-58079 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wintle, Brendan A. A1 - Bekessy, Sarah A. A1 - Keith, David A. A1 - van Wilgen, Brian W. A1 - Cabeza, Mar A1 - Schröder-Esselbach, Boris A1 - Carvalho, Silvia B. A1 - Falcucci, Alessandra A1 - Maiorano, Luigi A1 - Regan, Tracey J. A1 - Rondinini, Carlo A1 - Boitani, Luigi A1 - Possingham, Hugh P. T1 - Ecological-economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change JF - Nature climate change N2 - Substantial investment in climate change research has led to dire predictions of the impacts and risks to biodiversity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report(1) cites 28,586 studies demonstrating significant biological changes in terrestrial systems(2). Already high extinction rates, driven primarily by habitat loss, are predicted to increase under climate change(3-6). Yet there is little specific advice or precedent in the literature to guide climate adaptation investment for conserving biodiversity within realistic economic constraints(7). Here we present a systematic ecological and economic analysis of a climate adaptation problem in one of the world's most species-rich and threatened ecosystems: the South African fynbos. We discover a counterintuitive optimal investment strategy that switches twice between options as the available adaptation budget increases. We demonstrate that optimal investment is nonlinearly dependent on available resources, making the choice of how much to invest as important as determining where to invest and what actions to take. Our study emphasizes the importance of a sound analytical framework for prioritizing adaptation investments(4). Integrating ecological predictions in an economic decision framework will help support complex choices between adaptation options under severe uncertainty. Our prioritization method can be applied at any scale to minimize species loss and to evaluate the robustness of decisions to uncertainty about key assumptions. Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1227 SN - 1758-678X VL - 1 IS - 7 SP - 355 EP - 359 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Streich, Rita A1 - Becken, Michael T1 - Electromagnetic fields generated by finite-length wire sources: comparison with point dipole solutions JF - Geophysical prospecting N2 - In present-day land and marine controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) surveys, electromagnetic fields are commonly generated using wires that are hundreds of metres long. Nevertheless, simulations of CSEM data often approximate these sources as point dipoles. Although this is justified for sufficiently large source-receiver distances, many real surveys include frequencies and distances at which the dipole approximation is inaccurate. For 1D layered media, electromagnetic (EM) fields for point dipole sources can be computed using well-known quasi-analytical solutions and fields for sources of finite length can be synthesized by superposing point dipole fields. However, the calculation of numerous point dipole fields is computationally expensive, requiring a large number of numerical integral evaluations. We combine a more efficient representation of finite-length sources in terms of components related to the wire and its end points with very general expressions for EM fields in 1D layered media. We thus obtain a formulation that requires fewer numerical integrations than the superposition of dipole fields, permits source and receiver placement at any depth within the layer stack and can also easily be integrated into 3D modelling algorithms. Complex source geometries, such as wires bent due to surface obstructions, can be simulated by segmenting the wire and computing the responses for each segment separately. We first describe our finite-length wire expressions and then present 1D and 3D examples of EM fields due to finite-length sources for typical land and marine survey geometries and discuss differences to point dipole fields. KW - Electromagnetics KW - Mathematical formulation KW - Modelling KW - Numerical study Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2478.2010.00926.x SN - 0016-8025 VL - 59 IS - 2 SP - 361 EP - 374 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Meinshausen, Malte A1 - Yin, J. A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast JF - Earth system dynamics N2 - In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommel-type box model to emulate the output of fully coupled three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Based on this calibration to idealised global warming scenarios with and without interactive atmosphere-ocean fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project the future evolution of the AMOC mean strength within the covered calibration range for the lower two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) until 2100 obtained from the reduced complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC 6. For RCP3-PD with a global mean temperature median below 1.0 degrees C warming relative to the year 2000, we project an ensemble median weakening of up to 11% compared to 22% under RCP4.5 with a warming median up to 1.9 degrees C over the 21st century. Additional Greenland meltwater of 10 and 20 cm of global sea-level rise equivalent further weakens the AMOC by about 4.5 and 10 %, respectively. By combining our outcome with a multi-model sea-level rise study we project a dynamic sea-level rise along the New York City coastline of 4 cm for the RCP3-PD and of 8 cm for the RCP4.5 scenario over the 21st century. We estimate the total steric and dynamic sea-level rise for New York City to be about 24 cm until 2100 for the RCP3-PD scenario, which can hold as a lower bound for sea-level rise projections in this region, as it does not include ice sheet and mountain glacier contributions. Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-191-2011 SN - 2190-4979 SN - 2190-4987 VL - 2 IS - 2 SP - 191 EP - 200 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - THES A1 - Meyer, Sven Walter Heinrich T1 - Entwicklung und Erprobung von methodischen Grundlagen zur Konzipierung eines Entscheidungshilfesystems für die Begründung von Extremstandorten Y1 - 2011 CY - Potsdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Krause, Rolf Harald A1 - Buse, Joern A1 - Matern, Andrea A1 - Schroeder, Boris A1 - Haerdtle, Werner A1 - Assmann, Thorsten T1 - Eresus kollari (Araneae: Eresidae) calls for heathland management JF - The Journal of arachnology N2 - Northwest Europe's largest heather-dominated sandy habitats are located in the nature reserve Luneburger Heide, Germany. Yet, even these appear to be losing their ability to support some of their stenotopic species such as the ladybird spider, Eresus kollari Rossi 1846, and are thus becoming increasingly important for the preservation of these species. The habitat requirements of this endangered spider species were investigated in order to obtain data that will help stabilize the last remnants of the species' population in northwest Germany. Several heathland habitats were surveyed by pitfall trapping during the mate-search period of the males. Two statistical methods were applied: logistic regression and boosted regression trees (BRT). Both methods showed that three habitat variables are of prime relevance in predicting the occurrence of E. kollari: a) thickness of the organic layer (a negative effect), b) soil temperature at a depth of 10 cm, and c) Calluna cover in the herb layer (both have positive effect). Our results show that choppering (removing above-ground biomass and most of O-layer) and burning are likely appropriate heathland management measures for the conservation of E. kollari. Such measures improve the species' habitat quality by creating a heterogenic (small-scaled) heathland structure with suitable microhabitats. As Calluna heathlands show a clear senescence of the dominant heather, it is essential that those habitat patches be conserved. Further measures, such as transfer experiments, are recommended. KW - Conservation management KW - habitat modeling KW - action plan KW - choppering KW - burning Y1 - 2011 SN - 0161-8202 SN - 1937-2396 VL - 39 IS - 3 SP - 384 EP - 392 PB - American Arachnological Society CY - College Park ER -