TY - JOUR A1 - Acevedo, Walter A1 - Reich, Sebastian A1 - Cubasch, Ulrich T1 - Towards the assimilation of tree-ring-width records using ensemble Kalman filtering techniques JF - Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system N2 - This paper investigates the applicability of the Vaganov–Shashkin–Lite (VSL) forward model for tree-ring-width chronologies as observation operator within a proxy data assimilation (DA) setting. Based on the principle of limiting factors, VSL combines temperature and moisture time series in a nonlinear fashion to obtain simulated TRW chronologies. When used as observation operator, this modelling approach implies three compounding, challenging features: (1) time averaging, (2) “switching recording” of 2 variables and (3) bounded response windows leading to “thresholded response”. We generate pseudo-TRW observations from a chaotic 2-scale dynamical system, used as a cartoon of the atmosphere-land system, and attempt to assimilate them via ensemble Kalman filtering techniques. Results within our simplified setting reveal that VSL’s nonlinearities may lead to considerable loss of assimilation skill, as compared to the utilization of a time-averaged (TA) linear observation operator. In order to understand this undesired effect, we embed VSL’s formulation into the framework of fuzzy logic (FL) theory, which thereby exposes multiple representations of the principle of limiting factors. DA experiments employing three alternative growth rate functions disclose a strong link between the lack of smoothness of the growth rate function and the loss of optimality in the estimate of the TA state. Accordingly, VSL’s performance as observation operator can be enhanced by resorting to smoother FL representations of the principle of limiting factors. This finding fosters new interpretations of tree-ring-growth limitation processes. KW - Proxy forward modeling KW - Data assimilation KW - Fuzzy logic KW - Ensemble Kalman filter KW - Paleoclimate reconstruction Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2683-1 SN - 0930-7575 SN - 1432-0894 VL - 46 SP - 1909 EP - 1920 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Shtrakov, Slavcho A1 - Koppitz, Jörg T1 - Stable varieties of semigroups and groupoids JF - Algebra universalis N2 - The paper deals with Sigma-composition and Sigma-essential composition of terms which lead to stable and s-stable varieties of algebras. A full description of all stable varieties of semigroups, commutative and idempotent groupoids is obtained. We use an abstract reduction system which simplifies the presentations of terms of type tau - (2) to study the variety of idempotent groupoids and s-stable varieties of groupoids. S-stable varieties are a variation of stable varieties, used to highlight replacement of subterms of a term in a deductive system instead of the usual replacement of variables by terms. KW - composition of terms KW - essential position in terms KW - stable variety Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00012-015-0359-7 SN - 0002-5240 SN - 1420-8911 VL - 75 SP - 85 EP - 106 PB - Springer CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gregory, A. A1 - Cotter, C. J. A1 - Reich, Sebastian T1 - MULTILEVEL ENSEMBLE TRANSFORM PARTICLE FILTERING JF - SIAM journal on scientific computing N2 - This paper extends the multilevel Monte Carlo variance reduction technique to nonlinear filtering. In particular, multilevel Monte Carlo is applied to a certain variant of the particle filter, the ensemble transform particle filter (EPTF). A key aspect is the use of optimal transport methods to re-establish correlation between coarse and fine ensembles after resampling; this controls the variance of the estimator. Numerical examples present a proof of concept of the effectiveness of the proposed method, demonstrating significant computational cost reductions (relative to the single-level ETPF counterpart) in the propagation of ensembles. KW - multilevel Monte Carlo KW - sequential data assimilation KW - optimal transport Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1137/15M1038232 SN - 1064-8275 SN - 1095-7197 VL - 38 SP - A1317 EP - A1338 PB - Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics CY - Philadelphia ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Menne, Ulrich T1 - Weakly Differentiable Functions on Varifolds JF - Indiana University mathematics journal N2 - The present paper is intended to provide the basis for the study of weakly differentiable functions on rectifiable varifolds with locally bounded first variation. The concept proposed here is defined by means of integration-by-parts identities for certain compositions with smooth functions. In this class, the idea of zero boundary values is realised using the relative perimeter of superlevel sets. Results include a variety of Sobolev Poincare-type embeddings, embeddings into spaces of continuous and sometimes Holder-continuous functions, and point wise differentiability results both of approximate and integral type as well as coarea formulae. As a prerequisite for this study, decomposition properties of such varifolds and a relative isoperimetric inequality are established. Both involve a concept of distributional boundary of a set introduced for this purpose. As applications, the finiteness of the geodesic distance associated with varifolds with suitable summability of the mean curvature and a characterisation of curvature varifolds are obtained. KW - Rectifiable varifold KW - (generalised) wealdy differentiable function KW - distributional boundary KW - decomposition KW - relative isoperimetric inequality KW - Sobolev Poincare inequality KW - approximate differentiability KW - coarea formula KW - geodesic distance KW - curvature varifold Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1512/iumj.2016.65.5829 SN - 0022-2518 SN - 1943-5258 VL - 65 SP - 977 EP - 1088 PB - Indiana University, Department of Mathematics CY - Bloomington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tinpun, Kittisak A1 - Koppitz, Jörg T1 - Generating sets of infinite full transformation semigroups with restricted range JF - Acta scientiarum mathematicarum N2 - In the present paper, we consider minimal generating sets of infinite full transformation semigroups with restricted range modulo specific subsets. In particular, we determine relative ranks. KW - generating sets KW - transformation semigroups KW - restricted range KW - relative ranks Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.14232/actasm-015-502-4 SN - 0001-6969 VL - 82 SP - 55 EP - 63 PB - Institutum Bolyaianum Universitatis Szegediensis CY - Szeged ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Holschneider, Matthias T1 - The Maximum Possible and the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude for Production-Induced Earthquakes at the Gas Field in Groningen, The Netherlands JF - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America N2 - The Groningen gas field serves as a natural laboratory for production-induced earthquakes, because no earthquakes were observed before the beginning of gas production. Increasing gas production rates resulted in growing earthquake activity and eventually in the occurrence of the 2012M(w) 3.6 Huizinge earthquake. At least since this event, a detailed seismic hazard and risk assessment including estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude is considered to be necessary to decide on the future gas production. In this short note, we first apply state-of-the-art methods of mathematical statistics to derive confidence intervals for the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max). Second, we calculate the maximum expected magnitude M-T in the time between 2016 and 2024 for three assumed gas-production scenarios. Using broadly accepted physical assumptions and 90% confidence level, we suggest a value of m(max) 4.4, whereas M-T varies between 3.9 and 4.3, depending on the production scenario. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160220 SN - 0037-1106 SN - 1943-3573 VL - 106 SP - 2917 EP - 2921 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Menne, Ulrich T1 - Sobolev functions on varifolds JF - Proceedings of the London Mathematical Society N2 - This paper introduces first-order Sobolev spaces on certain rectifiable varifolds. These complete locally convex spaces are contained in the generally non-linear class of generalised weakly differentiable functions and share key functional analytic properties with their Euclidean counterparts. Assuming the varifold to satisfy a uniform lower density bound and a dimensionally critical summability condition on its mean curvature, the following statements hold. Firstly, continuous and compact embeddings of Sobolev spaces into Lebesgue spaces and spaces of continuous functions are available. Secondly, the geodesic distance associated to the varifold is a continuous, not necessarily Holder continuous Sobolev function with bounded derivative. Thirdly, if the varifold additionally has bounded mean curvature and finite measure, then the present Sobolev spaces are isomorphic to those previously available for finite Radon measures yielding many new results for those classes as well. Suitable versions of the embedding results obtained for Sobolev functions hold in the larger class of generalised weakly differentiable functions. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1112/plms/pdw023 SN - 0024-6115 SN - 1460-244X VL - 113 SP - 725 EP - 774 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Keller, Matthias A1 - Lenz, Daniel A1 - Münch, Florentin A1 - Schmidt, Marcel A1 - Telcs, Andras T1 - Note on short-time behavior of semigroups associated to self-adjoint operators JF - Bulletin of the London Mathematical Society N2 - We present a simple observation showing that the heat kernel on a locally finite graph behaves for short times t roughly like t(d), where d is the combinatorial distance. This is very different from the classical Varadhan-type behavior on manifolds. Moreover, this also gives that short-time behavior and global behavior of the heat kernel are governed by two different metrics whenever the degree of the graph is not uniformly bounded. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1112/blms/bdw054 SN - 0024-6093 SN - 1469-2120 VL - 48 SP - 935 EP - 944 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wichitsa-Nguan, Korakot A1 - Läuter, Henning A1 - Liero, Hannelore T1 - Estimability in Cox models JF - Statistical Papers N2 - Our procedure of estimating is the maximum partial likelihood estimate (MPLE) which is the appropriate estimate in the Cox model with a general censoring distribution, covariates and an unknown baseline hazard rate . We find conditions for estimability and asymptotic estimability. The asymptotic variance matrix of the MPLE is represented and properties are discussed. KW - Cox model KW - Estimability KW - Asymptotic variance of maximum partial likelihood estimate Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00362-016-0755-x SN - 0932-5026 SN - 1613-9798 VL - 57 SP - 1121 EP - 1140 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Müller, Detlef A1 - Böckmann, Christine A1 - Kolgotin, Alexei A1 - Schneidenbach, Lars A1 - Chemyakin, Eduard A1 - Rosemann, Julia A1 - Znak, Pavel A1 - Romanov, Anton T1 - Microphysical particle properties derived from inversion algorithms developed in the framework of EARLINET JF - Atmospheric measurement techniques : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - We present a summary on the current status of two inversion algorithms that are used in EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network) for the inversion of data collected with EARLINET multiwavelength Raman lidars. These instruments measure backscatter coefficients at 355, 532, and 1064 nm, and extinction coefficients at 355 and 532 nm. Development of these two algorithms started in 2000 when EARLINET was founded. The algorithms are based on a manually controlled inversion of optical data which allows for detailed sensitivity studies. The algorithms allow us to derive particle effective radius as well as volume and surface area concentration with comparably high confidence. The retrieval of the real and imaginary parts of the complex refractive index still is a challenge in view of the accuracy required for these parameters in climate change studies in which light absorption needs to be known with high accuracy. It is an extreme challenge to retrieve the real part with an accuracy better than 0.05 and the imaginary part with accuracy better than 0.005-0.1 or +/- 50 %. Single-scattering albedo can be computed from the retrieved microphysical parameters and allows us to categorize aerosols into high-and low-absorbing aerosols. On the basis of a few exemplary simulations with synthetic optical data we discuss the current status of these manually operated algorithms, the potentially achievable accuracy of data products, and the goals for future work. One algorithm was used with the purpose of testing how well microphysical parameters can be derived if the real part of the complex refractive index is known to at least 0.05 or 0.1. The other algorithm was used to find out how well microphysical parameters can be derived if this constraint for the real part is not applied. The optical data used in our study cover a range of Angstrom exponents and extinction-to-backscatter (lidar) ratios that are found from lidar measurements of various aerosol types. We also tested aerosol scenarios that are considered highly unlikely, e.g. the lidar ratios fall outside the commonly accepted range of values measured with Raman lidar, even though the underlying microphysical particle properties are not uncommon. The goal of this part of the study is to test the robustness of the algorithms towards their ability to identify aerosol types that have not been measured so far, but cannot be ruled out based on our current knowledge of aerosol physics. We computed the optical data from monomodal logarithmic particle size distributions, i.e. we explicitly excluded the more complicated case of bimodal particle size distributions which is a topic of ongoing research work. Another constraint is that we only considered particles of spherical shape in our simulations. We considered particle radii as large as 7-10 mu m in our simulations where the Potsdam algorithm is limited to the lower value. We considered optical-data errors of 15% in the simulation studies. We target 50% uncertainty as a reasonable threshold for our data products, though we attempt to obtain data products with less uncertainty in future work. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5007-2016 SN - 1867-1381 SN - 1867-8548 VL - 9 SP - 5007 EP - 5035 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER -