TY - JOUR A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Botzen, W. J. Wouter A1 - Poussin, Jennifer A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. T1 - Impacts of flooding and flood preparedness on subjective well-being BT - a monetisation of the tangible and intangible impacts JF - Journal of Happiness Studies N2 - Flood disasters severely impact human subjective well-being (SWB). Nevertheless, few studies have examined the influence of flood events on individual well-being and how such impacts may be limited by flood protection measures. This study estimates the long term impacts on individual subjective well-being of flood experiences, individual subjective flood risk perceptions, and household flood preparedness decisions. These effects are monetised and placed in context through a comparison with impacts of other adverse events on well-being. We collected data from households in flood-prone areas in France. The results indicate that experiencing a flood has a large negative impact on subjective well-being that is incompletely attenuated over time. Moreover, individuals do not need to be directly affected by floods to suffer SWB losses since subjective well-being is lower for those who expect their flood risk to increase or who have seen a neighbour being flooded. Floodplain inhabitants who prepared for flooding by elevating their home have a higher subjective well-being. A monetisation of the aforementioned well-being impacts shows that a flood requires Euro150,000 in immediate compensation to attenuate SWB losses. The decomposition of the monetised impacts of flood experience into tangible losses and intangible effects on SWB shows that intangible effects are about twice as large as the tangible direct monetary flood losses. Investments in flood protection infrastructure may be under funded if the intangible SWB benefits of flood protection are not taken into account. KW - Flooding KW - Subjective well-being KW - Intangible losses KW - Tangible losses KW - Climate change KW - Adaptation KW - Climate change adaptation Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10902-017-9916-4 SN - 1389-4978 SN - 1573-7780 VL - 20 IS - 2 SP - 665 EP - 682 PB - Springer Science CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa A1 - Sunyer, Maria A. A1 - Lawrence, Deborah A1 - Madsen, Henrik A1 - Willems, Patrick A1 - Bürger, Gerd A1 - Kriauciuniene, Jurate A1 - Loukas, Athanasios A1 - Martinkova, Marta A1 - Osuch, Marzena A1 - Vasiliades, Lampros A1 - von Christierson, Birgitte A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef A1 - Yuecel, Ismail T1 - Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme flow indices across Europe JF - Journal of hydrology N2 - The effect of methods of statistical downscaling of daily precipitation on changes in extreme flow indices under a plausible future climate change scenario was investigated in 11 catchments selected from 9 countries in different parts of Europe. The catchments vary from 67 to 6171 km(2) in size and cover different climate zones. 15 regional climate model outputs and 8 different statistical downscaling methods, which are broadly categorized as change factor and bias correction based methods, were used for the comparative analyses. Different hydrological models were implemented in different catchments to simulate daily runoff. A set of flood indices were derived from daily flows and their changes have been evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. Most of the implemented downscaling methods project an increase in the extreme flow indices in most of the catchments. The catchments where the extremes are expected to increase have a rainfall dominated flood regime. In these catchments, the downscaling methods also project an increase in the extreme precipitation in the seasons when the extreme flows occur. In catchments where the flooding is mainly caused by spring/summer snowmelt, the downscaling methods project a decrease in the extreme flows in three of the four catchments considered. A major portion of the variability in the projected changes in the extreme flow indices is attributable to the variability of the climate model ensemble, although the statistical downscaling methods contribute 35-60% of the total variance. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Flooding KW - Statistical downscaling KW - Regional climate models KW - Climate change KW - Europe Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.08.033 SN - 0022-1694 SN - 1879-2707 VL - 541 SP - 1273 EP - 1286 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kotz, Maximilian A1 - Wenz, Leonie A1 - Stechemesser, Annika A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - Day-to-day temperature variability reduces economic growth JF - Nature climate change N2 - Elevated annual average temperature has been found to impact macro-economic growth. However, various fundamental elements of the economy are affected by deviations of daily temperature from seasonal expectations which are not well reflected in annual averages. Here we show that increases in seasonally adjusted day-to-day temperature variability reduce macro-economic growth independent of and in addition to changes in annual average temperature. Combining observed day-to-day temperature variability with subnational economic data for 1,537 regions worldwide over 40 years in fixed-effects panel models, we find that an extra degree of variability results in a five percentage-point reduction in regional growth rates on average. The impact of day-to-day variability is modulated by seasonal temperature difference and income, resulting in highest vulnerability in low-latitude, low-income regions (12 percentage-point reduction). These findings illuminate a new, global-impact channel in the climate–economy relationship that demands a more comprehensive assessment in both climate and integrated assessment models. KW - Climate change KW - Climate-change impacts KW - Economics KW - Environmental economics KW - Environmental impact Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00985-5 SN - 1758-678X SN - 1758-6798 VL - 11 IS - 4 SP - 319 EP - 325 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lawrence, Mark A1 - Schäfer, Stefan A1 - Muri, Helene A1 - Scott, Vivian A1 - Oschlies, Andreas A1 - Vaughan, Naomi E. A1 - Boucher, Olivier A1 - Schmidt, Hauke A1 - Haywood, Jim A1 - Scheffran, Jürgen T1 - Evaluating climate geoengineering proposals in the context of the Paris Agreement temperature goals JF - Nature Communications N2 - Current mitigation efforts and existing future commitments are inadequate to accomplish the Paris Agreement temperature goals. In light of this, research and debate are intensifying on the possibilities of additionally employing proposed climate geoengineering technologies, either through atmospheric carbon dioxide removal or farther-reaching interventions altering the Earth’s radiative energy budget. Although research indicates that several techniques may eventually have the physical potential to contribute to limiting climate change, all are in early stages of development, involve substantial uncertainties and risks, and raise ethical and governance dilemmas. Based on present knowledge, climate geoengineering techniques cannot be relied on to significantly contribute to meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goals. KW - Atmospheric chemistry KW - Atmospheric dynamics KW - Atmospheric science KW - Climate change KW - Environmental impact Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05938-3 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 9 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Leins, Johannes A. A1 - Banitz, Thomas A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Drechsler, Martin T1 - High-resolution PVA along large environmental gradients to model the combined effects of climate change and land use timing BT - lessons from the large marsh grasshopper JF - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and systems ecology N2 - Both climate change and land use regimes affect the viability of populations, but they are often studied separately. Moreover, population viability analyses (PVAs) often ignore the effects of large environmental gradients and use temporal resolutions that are too coarse to take into account that different stages of a population's life cycle may be affected differently by climate change. Here, we present the High-resolution Large Environmental Gradient (HiLEG) model and apply it in a PVA with daily resolution based on daily climate projections for Northwest Germany. We used the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) as the target species and investigated (1) the effects of climate change on the viability and spatial distribution of the species, (2) the influence of the timing of grassland mowing on the species and (3) the interaction between the effects of climate change and grassland mowing. The stageand cohort-based model was run for the spatially differentiated environmental conditions temperature and soil moisture across the whole study region. We implemented three climate change scenarios and analyzed the population dynamics for four consecutive 20-year periods. Climate change alone would lead to an expansion of the regions suitable for the LMG, as warming accelerates development and due to reduced drought stress. However, in combination with land use, the timing of mowing was crucial, as this disturbance causes a high mortality rate in the aboveground life stages. Assuming the same date of mowing throughout the region, the impact on viability varied greatly between regions due to the different climate conditions. The regional negative effects of the mowing date can be divided into five phases: (1) In early spring, the populations were largely unaffected in all the regions; (2) between late spring and early summer, they were severely affected only in warm regions; (3) in summer, all the populations were severely affected so that they could hardly survive; (4) between late summer and early autumn, they were severely affected in cold regions; and (5) in autumn, the populations were equally affected across all regions. The duration and start of each phase differed slightly depending on the climate change scenario and simulation period, but overall, they showed the same pattern. Our model can be used to identify regions of concern and devise management recommendations. The model can be adapted to the life cycle of different target species, climate projections and disturbance regimes. We show with our adaption of the HiLEG model that high-resolution PVAs and applications on large environmental gradients can be reconciled to develop conservation strategies capable of dealing with multiple stressors. KW - Climate change KW - Land use KW - Population viability analysis KW - Stage-based model KW - High resolution KW - Environmental gradients Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109355 SN - 0304-3800 SN - 1872-7026 VL - 440 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lemke, Isgard H. A1 - Kolb, Annette A1 - Graae, Bente J. A1 - De Frenne, Pieter A1 - Acharya, Kamal P. A1 - Blandino, Cristina A1 - Brunet, Jorg A1 - Chabrerie, Olivier A1 - Cousins, Sara A. O. A1 - Decocq, Guillaume A1 - Heinken, Thilo A1 - Hermy, Martin A1 - Liira, Jaan A1 - Schmucki, Reto A1 - Shevtsova, Anna A1 - Verheyen, Kris A1 - Diekmann, Martin T1 - Patterns of phenotypic trait variation in two temperate forest herbs along a broad climatic gradient JF - Plant ecology : an international journal N2 - Phenotypic trait variation plays a major role in the response of plants to global environmental change, particularly in species with low migration capabilities and recruitment success. However, little is known about the variation of functional traits within populations and about differences in this variation on larger spatial scales. In a first approach, we therefore related trait expression to climate and local environmental conditions, studying two temperate forest herbs, Milium effusum and Stachys sylvatica, along a similar to 1800-2500 km latitudinal gradient. Within each of 9-10 regions in six European countries, we collected data from six populations of each species and recorded several variables in each region (temperature, precipitation) and population (light availability, soil parameters). For each plant, we measured height, leaf area, specific leaf area, seed mass and the number of seeds and examined environmental effects on within-population trait variation as well as on trait means. Most importantly, trait variation differed both between and within populations. Species, however, differed in their response. Intrapopulation variation in Milium was consistently positively affected by higher mean temperatures and precipitation as well as by more fertile local soil conditions, suggesting that more productive conditions may select for larger phenotypic variation. In Stachys, particularly light availability positively influenced trait variation, whereas local soil conditions had no consistent effects. Generally, our study emphasises that intra-population variation may differ considerably across larger scales-due to phenotypic plasticity and/or underlying genetic diversity-possibly affecting species response to global environmental change. KW - Climate change KW - Global environmental change KW - Milium effusum KW - Phenotypic plasticity KW - Intraspecific variation KW - Stachys sylvatica Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-015-0534-0 SN - 1385-0237 SN - 1573-5052 VL - 216 IS - 11 SP - 1523 EP - 1536 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Luis Horreo, Jose A1 - Luisa Pelaez, Maria A1 - Breedveld, Merel Cathelijne A1 - Suarez, Teresa A1 - Urieta, Maria A1 - Fitze, Patrick S. T1 - Population structure of the oviparous South-West European common lizard JF - European journal of wildlife research N2 - Gene flow is an important factor determining the evolution of a species, since it directly affects population structure and species’ adaptation. Here, we investigated population structure, population history, and migration among populations covering the entire distribution of the geographically isolated South-West European common lizard (Zootoca vivipara louislantzi) using 34 newly developed polymorphic microsatellite markers. The analyses unravelled the presence of isolation by distance, inbreeding, recent bottlenecks, genetic differentiation, and low levels of migration among most populations, suggesting that Z. vivipara louislantzi is threatened. The results point to discontinuous populations and are in line with physical barriers hindering longitudinal migration south to the central Pyrenean cordillera and latitudinal migration in the central Pyrenees. In contrast, evidence for longitudinal migration exists from the lowlands north to the central Pyrenean cordillera and the Cantabrian Mountains. The locations of the populations south to the central Pyrenean cordillera were identified as the first to be affected by global warming; thus, management actions aimed at avoiding population declines should start in this area. KW - Climate change KW - Conservation KW - First-generation migrant KW - gene flow KW - IBD KW - Zootoca vivipara Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10344-018-1242-6 SN - 1612-4642 SN - 1439-0574 VL - 65 IS - 1 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Horvitz, Nir A1 - He, Yanping A1 - Kuparinen, Anna A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Katul, Gabriel G. T1 - Spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in future environments T2 - Ecology letters N2 - P>Despite ample research, understanding plant spread and predicting their ability to track projected climate changes remain a formidable challenge to be confronted. We modelled the spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in current and future (c. 2060) conditions, accounting for variation in 10 key dispersal, demographic and environmental factors affecting population spread. Predicted spread rates vary substantially among 12 study species, primarily due to inter-specific variation in maturation age, fecundity and seed terminal velocity. Future spread is predicted to be faster if atmospheric CO2 enrichment would increase fecundity and advance maturation, irrespective of the projected changes in mean surface windspeed. Yet, for only a few species, predicted wind-driven spread will match future climate changes, conditioned on seed abscission occurring only in strong winds and environmental conditions favouring high survival of the farthest-dispersed seeds. Because such conditions are unlikely, North American wind-dispersed trees are expected to lag behind the projected climate range shift. KW - Climate change KW - demography KW - dispersal KW - fat-tailed dispersal kernels KW - forecasting KW - forests KW - invasion by extremes KW - long-distance dispersal KW - mechanistic models KW - plant migration KW - population spread KW - range expansion KW - survival KW - wind dispersal Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01573.x SN - 1461-023X VL - 14 IS - 3 SP - 211 EP - 219 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Norris, Jesse A1 - Carvalho, Leila M. V. A1 - Jones, Charles A1 - Cannon, Forest A1 - Bookhagen, Bodo A1 - Palazzi, Elisa A1 - Tahir, Adnan Ahmad T1 - The spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Himalaya: evaluation of one-year WRF model simulation JF - Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system N2 - The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation over central Asia over the year April 2005 through March 2006. Experiments are performed at 6.7 km horizontal grid spacing, with an emphasis on winter and summer precipitation over the Himalaya. The model and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission show a similar inter-seasonal cycle of precipitation, from extratropical cyclones to monsoon precipitation, with agreement also in the diurnal cycle of monsoon precipitation. In winter months, WRF compares better in timeseries of daily precipitation to stations below than above 3-km elevation, likely due to inferior measurement of snow than rain by the stations, highlighting the need for reliable snowfall measurements at high elevations in winter. In summer months, the nocturnal precipitation cycle in the foothills and valleys of the Himalaya is captured by this 6.7-km WRF simulation, while coarser simulations with convective parameterization show near zero nocturnal precipitation. In winter months, higher resolution is less important, serving only to slightly increase precipitation magnitudes due to steeper slopes. However, even in the 6.7-km simulation, afternoon precipitation is overestimated at high elevations, which can be reduced by even higher-resolution (2.2-km) simulations. These results indicate that WRF provides skillful simulations of precipitation relevant for studies of water resources over the complex terrain in the Himalaya. KW - WRF KW - Himalayas KW - Mesoscale KW - Precipitation KW - Climate change KW - Orographicprecipitation KW - Water resources Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3414-y SN - 0930-7575 SN - 1432-0894 VL - 49 SP - 2179 EP - 2204 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Oguntunde, Philip G. A1 - Abiodun, Babatunde Joseph A1 - Lischeid, Gunnar T1 - Impacts of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought over the Volta Basin, West Africa JF - Global and planetary change N2 - This study examines the characteristics of drought in the Volta River Basin (VRB), investigates the influence of drought on the streamflow, and projects the impacts of future climate change on the drought. A combination of observation data and regional climate simulations of past and future climates (1970-2013, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100) were analyzed for the study. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (SPEI) were used to characterize drought while the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) were used to quantify runoff. Results of the study show that the historical pattern of drought is generally consistent with previous studies over the Basin and most part of West Africa. RCA ensemble medians (RMED) give realistic simulations of drought characteristics and area extent over the Basin and the sub-catchments in the past climate. Generally, an increase in drought intensity and spatial extent are projected over VRB for SPEI and SPI, but the magnitude of increase is higher with SPEI than with SPI. Drought frequency (events per decade) may be magnified by a factor of 1.2, (2046-2065) to 1.6 (2081-2100) compared to the present day episodes in the basin. The coupling between streamflow and drought episodes was very strong (P < 0.05) for the 1-16-year band before the 1970 but showed strong correlation all through the time series period for the 4-8 -years band. Runoff was highly sensitive to precipitation in the VRB and a 2-3 month time lag was found between drought indices and streamflow in the Volta River Basin. Results of this study may guide policymakers in planning how to minimize the negative impacts of future climate change that could have consequences on agriculture, water resources and energy supply. KW - Drought indices KW - Water management KW - Climate change KW - Streamfiow KW - Volta Basin Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.07.003 SN - 0921-8181 SN - 1872-6364 VL - 155 SP - 121 EP - 132 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER -