TY - JOUR A1 - de Araujo, Jose Carlos A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - A method to assess hydrological drought in semi-arid environments and its application to the Jaguaribe River basin, Brazil JF - Water International N2 - This manuscript proposes a method to assess hydrological drought in semi-arid environments under high impoundment rate and applies it to the semi-arid Jaguaribe River basin in Brazil. It analyzes droughts (1) in the largest reservoir systems; (2) in the Upper Basin, considering 4744 reservoirs, 800 wells and almost 18,000 cisterns; and (3) in reservoirs of different sizes during multiyear droughts. Results show that the water demand is constrained in the basin; hydrological and meteorological droughts are often out of phase; there is a negative correlation between storage level and drought severity; and the small systems cannot cope with long-term droughts. KW - Reservoirs KW - Brazil KW - multiyear drought KW - water management KW - impoundment rate KW - water demand Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2015.1113077 SN - 0250-8060 SN - 1941-1707 VL - 41 SP - 213 EP - 230 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Abingdon ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Miegel, Konrad A1 - Graeff, Thomas A1 - Selle, Benny A1 - Salzmann, Thomas A1 - Franck, Christian A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Investigation of a renatured fen on the Baltic Sea coast of Mecklenburg - Part I: System description and basic hydrological characterisation JF - Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung KW - Baltic Sea Coast KW - coastal wetland KW - drainage of the catchment area KW - fens KW - groundwater flow KW - management effects KW - system analysis KW - water balance Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5675/HyWa_2016.4_1 SN - 1439-1783 VL - 60 SP - 242 EP - 258 PB - Bundesanst. für Gewässerkunde CY - Koblenz ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kneis, David A1 - Abon, Catherine Cristobal A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Heistermann, Maik T1 - Verification of short-term runoff forecasts for a small Philippine basin (Marikina) T2 - Hydrological sciences journal = Journal des sciences hydrologiques N2 - Storm runoff from the Marikina River Basin frequently causes flood events in the Philippine capital region Metro Manila. This paper presents and evaluates a system to predict short-term runoff from the upper part of that basin (380km(2)). It was designed as a possible component of an operational warning system yet to be installed. For the purpose of forecast verification, hindcasts of streamflow were generated for a period of 15 months with a time-continuous, conceptual hydrological model. The latter was fed with real-time observations of rainfall. Both ground observations and weather radar data were tested as rainfall forcings. The radar-based precipitation estimates clearly outperformed the raingauge-based estimates in the hydrological verification. Nevertheless, the quality of the deterministic short-term runoff forecasts was found to be limited. For the radar-based predictions, the reduction of variance for lead times of 1, 2 and 3hours was 0.61, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively, with reference to a no-forecast scenario, i.e. persistence. The probability of detection for major increases in streamflow was typically less than 0.5. Given the significance of flood events in the Marikina Basin, more effort needs to be put into the reduction of forecast errors and the quantification of remaining uncertainties. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1183773 SN - 0262-6667 SN - 2150-3435 VL - 62 SP - 205 EP - 216 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Abon, Catherine Cristobal A1 - Kneis, David A1 - Crisologo, Irene A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - David, Carlos Primo Constantino A1 - Heistermann, Maik T1 - Evaluating the potential of radar-based rainfall estimates for streamflow and flood simulations in the Philippines JF - GEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK N2 - This case study evaluates the suitability of radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) for the simulation of streamflow in the Marikina River Basin (MRB), the Philippines. Hourly radar-based QPEs were produced from reflectivity that had been observed by an S-band radar located about 90 km from the MRB. Radar data processing and precipitation estimation were carried out using the open source library wradlib. To assess the added value of the radar-based QPE, we used spatially interpolated rain gauge observations (gauge-only (GO) product) as a benchmark. Rain gauge observations were also used to quantify rainfall estimation errors at the point scale. At the point scale, the radar-based QPE outperformed the GO product in 2012, while for 2013, the performance was similar. For both periods, estimation errors substantially increased from daily to the hourly accumulation intervals. Despite this fact, both rainfall estimation methods allowed for a good representation of observed streamflow when used to force a hydrological simulation model of the MRB. Furthermore, the results of the hydrological simulation were consistent with rainfall verification at the point scale: the radar-based QPE performed better than the GO product in 2012, and equivalently in 2013. Altogether, we could demonstrate that, in terms of streamflow simulation, the radar-based QPE can perform as good as or even better than the GO product - even for a basin such as the MRB which has a comparatively dense rain gauge network. This suggests good prospects for using radar-based QPE to simulate and forecast streamflow in other parts of the Philippines where rain gauge networks are not as dense. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2015.1058862 SN - 1947-5705 SN - 1947-5713 VL - 7 SP - 1390 EP - 1405 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Agarwal, Ankit A1 - Boessenkool, Berry A1 - Fischer, Madlen A1 - Hahn, Irene A1 - Köhn, Lisei A1 - Laudan, Jonas A1 - Moran, Thomas A1 - Öztürk, Ugur A1 - Riemer, Adrian A1 - Rözer, Viktor A1 - Sieg, Tobias A1 - Vogel, Kristin A1 - Wendi, Dadiyorto A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Die Sturzflut in Braunsbach, Mai 2016 T1 - The flash flood of Braunsbach, May 2006 BT - eine Bestandsaufnahme und Ereignisbeschreibung BT - a hydrological survey and event analysis N2 - Im Graduiertenkolleg NatRiskChange der Universität Potsdam und anderen Forschungseinrichtungen werden beobachtete sowie zukünftig mögliche Veränderungen von Naturgefahren untersucht. Teil des strukturierten Doktorandenprogramms sind sogenannte Task-Force-Einsätze, bei denen die Promovierende zeitlich begrenzt ein aktuelles Ereignis auswerten. Im Zuge dieser Aktivität wurde die Sturzflut vom 29.05.2016 in Braunsbach (Baden-Württemberg) untersucht. In diesem Bericht werden erste Auswertungen zur Einordnung der Niederschläge, zu den hydrologischen und geomorphologischen Prozessen im Einzugsgebiet des Orlacher Bachs sowie zu den verursachten Schäden beleuchtet. Die Region war Zentrum extremer Regenfälle in der Größenordnung von 100 mm innerhalb von 2 Stunden. Das 6 km² kleine Einzugsgebiet hat eine sehr schnelle Reaktionszeit, zumal bei vorgesättigtem Boden. Im steilen Bachtal haben mehrere kleinere und größere Hangrutschungen über 8000 m³ Geröll, Schutt und Schwemmholz in das Gewässer eingetragen und möglicherweise kurzzeitige Aufstauungen und Durchbrüche verursacht. Neben den großen Wassermengen mit einer Abflussspitze in einer Größenordnung von 100 m³/s hat gerade die Geschiebefracht zu großen Schäden an den Gebäuden entlang des Bachlaufs in Braunsbach geführt. N2 - The DFG graduate school “Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World” (NatRiskChange), which is located at the University of Potsdam and its partner institutions, studies previous as well as ongoing and potential future changes in the risk posed by natural hazards. The education program includes so-called task force activities, where the PhD students conduct a rapid event assessment directly after the occurrence of a hazardous natural event. Within this context the flash flood that hit the village Braunsbach (Baden-Württemberg, Germany) at May 29th, 2016 was investigated. This report summarizes first results describing the rainfall amount and intensities as well as hydrological and geomorphological processes in the corresponding catchment area of the Orlacher Bach. Further, the damages caused in Braunsbach are investigated. Rainfall intensity measures documented extreme precipitation in the area of Braunsbach with a cumulative amount of about 100 mm within 2 hours. The small catchment area, with a size of 6 km², has a small response time, especially under pre-saturated soil conditions. Several landslides, that occurred at the steep slopes of the river valley, transported more than 8000 m³ of gravel, debris and organic material into the water runoff. They may have caused temporal blockades, that collapsed after a certain amount of water accumulated. In addition to the high discharge, with peak values in the order of 100 m³/s, the high sediment content of the flash flood is mainly responsible for the large damages caused to the buildings in Braunsbach. KW - Sturzflut KW - Naturgefahren KW - Extremniederschlag KW - Schadensabschätzung KW - Hangrutschungen KW - flash flood KW - natural hazards KW - extreme precipitation KW - damage assessment KW - landslides Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-394881 ER -