TY - RPRT A1 - Lessmann, Kai A1 - Gruner, Friedemann A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar T1 - Emissions Trading with Clean-up Certificates BT - Deterring Mitigation or Increasing Ambition? T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We analyze how conventional emissions trading schemes (ETS) can be modified by introducing “clean-up certificates” to allow for a phase of net-negative emissions. Clean-up certificates bundle the permission to emit CO2 with the obligation for its removal. We show that demand for such certificates is determined by cost-saving technological progress, the discount rate and the length of the compliance period. Introducing extra clean-up certificates into an existing ETS reduces near-term carbon prices and mitigation efforts. In contrast, substituting ETS allowances with clean-up certificates reduces cumulative emissions without depressing carbon prices or mitigation in the near term. We calibrate our model to the EU ETS and identify reforms where simultaneously (i) ambition levels rise, (ii) climate damages fall, (iii) revenues from carbon prices rise and (iv) carbon prices and aggregate mitigation cost fall. For reducing climate damages, roughly half of the issued clean-up certificates should replace conventional ETS allowances. In the context of the EU ETS, a European Carbon Central Bank could manage the implementation of cleanup certificates and could serve as an enforcement mechanism. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 79 KW - carbon removal KW - carbon pricing KW - net-negative emissions KW - carbon debt Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-641368 SN - 2628-653X IS - 79 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Barschkett, Mara A1 - Huebener, Mathias A1 - Leibing, Andreas A1 - Marcus, Jan A1 - Margaryan, Shushanik T1 - Replication of Atwood’s (2022) the long-term effects of measles vaccination on earnings and employment T2 - I4R discussion paper series N2 - Atwood (2022) analyzes the effects of the 1963 U.S. measles vaccination on longrun labor market outcomes, using a generalized difference-in-differences approach. We reproduce the results of this paper and perform a battery of robustness checks. Overall, we confirm that the measles vaccination had positive labor market effects. While the negative effect on the likelihood of living in poverty and the positive effect on the probability of being employed are very robust across the different specifications, the headline estimate-the effect on earnings-is more sensitive to the exclusion of certain regions and survey years. Y1 - 2023 SN - 2752-1931 IS - 33 PB - Institute for Replication CY - Essen ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Borck, Rainald A1 - Mulder, Peter T1 - Energy policies and pollution in two developing country cities BT - A quantitative model T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We study the effect of energy and transport policies on pollution in two developing country cities. We use a quantitative equilibrium model with choice of housing, energy use, residential location, transport mode, and energy technology. Pollution comes from commuting and residential energy use. The model parameters are calibrated to replicate key variables for two developing country cities, Maputo, Mozambique, and Yogyakarta, Indonesia. In the counterfactual simulations, we study how various transport and energy policies affect equilibrium pollution. Policies may be induce rebound effects from increasing residential energy use or switching to high emission modes or locations. In general, these rebound effects tend to be largest for subsidies to public transport or modern residential energy technology. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 78 KW - pollution KW - energy policy KW - discrete choice KW - developing country cities Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-638472 SN - 2628-653X IS - 78 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Andres, Maximilian A1 - Bruttel, Lisa T1 - Communicating Cartel Intentions T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - While the economic harm of cartels is caused by their price-increasing effect, sanctioning by courts rather targets at the underlying process of firms reaching a price-fixing agreement. This paper provides experimental evidence on the question whether such sanctioning meets the economic target, i.e., whether evidence of a collusive meeting of the firms and of the content of their communication reliably predicts subsequent prices. We find that already the mere mutual agreement to meet predicts a strong increase in prices. Conversely, express distancing from communication completely nullifies its otherwise price-increasing effect. Using machine learning, we show that communication only increases prices if it is very explicit about how the cartel plans to behave. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 77 KW - cartel KW - collusion KW - communication KW - machine learning KW - experiment Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-638469 SN - 2628-653X IS - 77 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Maliranta, Mika A1 - Nippala, Veera A1 - Nurmi, Satu T1 - Does gender of firm ownership matter? BT - Female entrepreneurs and the gender pay gap T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We examine how the gender of business-owners is related to the wages paid to female relative to male employees working in their firms. Using Finnish register data and employing firm fixed effects, we find that the gender pay gap is – starting from a gender pay gap of 11 to 12 percent - two to three percentage-points lower for hourly wages in female-owned firms than in male-owned firms. Results are robust to how the wage is measured, as well as to various further robustness checks. More importantly, we find substantial differences between industries. While, for instance, in the manufacturing sector, the gender of the owner plays no role for the gender pay gap, in several service sector industries, like ICT or business services, no or a negligible gender pay gap can be found, but only when firms are led by female business owners. Businesses in male ownership maintain a gender pay gap of around 10 percent also in the latter industries. With increasing firm size, the influence of the gender of the owner, however, fades. In large firms, it seems that others – firm managers – determine wages and no differences in the pay gap are observed between male- and female-owned firms. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 76 KW - entrepreneurship KW - gender pay gap KW - discrimination KW - linked employer-employee data Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-636194 SN - 2628-653X IS - 76 SP - 1 EP - 39 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. A1 - Silva-Goncalves, Juliana A1 - Uhlendorff, Arne T1 - Locus of control and the preference for agency T2 - IZA discussion paper N2 - We conduct a laboratory experiment to study how locus of control operates through people's preferences and beliefs to influence their decisions. Using the principal-agent setting of the delegation game, we test four key channels that conceptually link locus of control to decision-making: (i) preference for agency; (ii) optimism and (iii) confidence regarding the return to effort; and (iv) illusion of control. Knowing the return and cost of stated effort, principals either retain or delegate the right to make an investment decision that generates payoffs for themselves and their agents. Extending the game to the context in which the return to stated effort is unknown allows us to explicitly study the relationship between locus of control and beliefs about the return to effort. We find that internal locus of control is linked to the preference for agency, an effect that is driven by women. We find no evidence that locus of control influences optimism and confidence about the return to stated effort, or that it operates through an illusion of control. KW - locus of control KW - preference for agency KW - decision-making KW - beliefs KW - optimism KW - confidence KW - illusion of control Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4416820 SN - 2365-9793 VL - No. 16061 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Matzat, Johannes A1 - Schmeißer, Aiko T1 - Do unions shape political ideologies at work? T2 - CESifo Working Paper N2 - Labor unions’ greatest potential for political influence likely arises from their direct connection to millions of individuals at the workplace. There, they may change the ideological positions of both unionizing workers and their non-unionizing management. In this paper, we analyze the workplace-level impact of unionization on workers’ and managers’ political campaign contributions over the 1980-2016 period in the United States. To do so, we link establishment-level union election data with transaction-level campaign contributions to federal and local candidates. In a difference-in-differences design that we validate with regression discontinuity tests and a novel instrumental variables approach, we find that unionization leads to a leftward shift of campaign contributions. Unionization increases the support for Democrats relative to Republicans not only among workers but also among managers, which speaks against an increase in political cleavages between the two groups. We provide evidence that our results are not driven by compositional changes of the workforce and are weaker in states with Right-to-Work laws where unions can invest fewer resources in political activities. KW - labor unions KW - political ideology KW - campaign contributions KW - worker-manager relations Y1 - 2023 SN - 2364-1428 SN - 1617-9595 IS - 10301 PB - CESifo GmbH (Münchener Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wirtschaftswissenschaft) CY - München ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Andres, Maximilian T1 - Equilibrium selection in infinitely repeated games with communication T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - The present paper proposes a novel approach for equilibrium selection in the infinitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma where players can communicate before choosing their strategies. This approach yields a critical discount factor that makes different predictions for cooperation than the usually considered sub-game perfect or risk dominance critical discount factors. In laboratory experiments, we find that our factor is useful for predicting cooperation. For payoff changes where the usually considered factors and our factor make different predictions, the observed cooperation is consistent with the predictions based on our factor. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 75 KW - cooperation KW - communication KW - infinitely repeated game KW - machine learning Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-631800 SN - 2628-653X IS - 75 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bruttel, Lisa Verena A1 - Petrishcheva, Vasilisa T1 - Does communication increase the precision of beliefs? T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - In this paper, we study one channel through which communication may facilitate cooperative behavior – belief precision. In a prisoner’s dilemma experiment, we show that communication not only makes individuals more optimistic that their partner will cooperate but also increases the precision of this belief, thereby reducing strategic uncertainty. To disentangle the shift in mean beliefs from the increase in precision, we elicit beliefs and precision in a two-stage procedure and in three situations: without communication, before communication, and after communication. We find that the precision of beliefs increases during communication. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 74 KW - prisoner’s dilemma KW - communication KW - beliefs KW - strategic uncertainty KW - experiment Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-629367 SN - 2628-653X IS - 74 SP - 1 EP - 33 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bruttel, Lisa Verena A1 - Eisenkopf, Gerald A1 - Nithammer, Juri T1 - Pre-election communication in public good games with endogenous leaders T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Leadership plays an important role for the efficient and fair solution of social dilemmas but the effectiveness of a leader can vary substantially. Two main factors of leadership impact are the ability to induce high contributions by all group members and the (expected) fair use of power. Participants in our experiment decide about contributions to a public good. After all contributions are made, the leader can choose how much of the joint earnings to assign to herself; the remainder is distributed equally among the followers. Using machine learning techniques, we study whether the content of initial open statements by the group members predicts their behavior as a leader and whether groups are able to identify such clues and endogenously appoint a “good” leader to solve the dilemma. We find that leaders who promise fairness are more likely to behave fairly, and that followers appoint as leaders those who write more explicitly about fairness and efficiency. However, in their contribution decision, followers focus on the leader’s first-move contribution and place less importance on the content of the leader’s statements. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 73 KW - leadership KW - public good KW - voting KW - experiment KW - promises Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-623952 SN - 2628-653X IS - 73 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Estrin, Saul A1 - Khavul, Susanna A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Löher, Jonas T1 - Access to digital finance BT - equity crowdfunding across countries and platforms T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Financing entrepreneurship spurs innovation and economic growth. Digital financial platforms that crowdfund equity for entrepreneurs have emerged globally, yet they remain poorly understood. We model equity crowdfunding in terms of the relationship between the number of investors and the amount of money raised per pitch. We examine heterogeneity in the average amount raised per pitch that is associated with differences across three countries and seven platforms. Using a novel dataset of successful fundraising on the most prominent platforms in the UK, Germany, and the USA, we find the underlying relationship between the number of investors and the amount of money raised for entrepreneurs is loglinear, with a coefficient less than one and concave to the origin. We identify significant variation in the average amount invested in each pitch across countries and platforms. Our findings have implications for market actors as well as regulators who set competitive frameworks. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 72 KW - equity crowdfunding KW - soft information KW - entrepreneurship KW - finance KW - financial access and inclusion Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-623261 SN - 2628-653X IS - 72 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Margaryan, Shushanik A1 - Saniter, Nils A1 - Schumann, Mathias A1 - Siedler, Thomas T1 - Do internships pay off? BT - the effects of student internships on earnings T2 - Journal of human resources N2 - We study the causal effect of student internship experience in firms on earnings later in life. We use mandatory firm internships at German universities as an instrument for doing a firm internship while attending university. Employing longitudinal data from graduate surveys, we find positive and significant earnings returns of about 6 percent in both ordinary least squares (OLS) and instrumental variables (IV) regressions. The positive returns are particularly pronounced for individuals and areas of study that are characterized by a weak labor market orientation. The empirical findings show that graduates who completed a firm internship face a lower risk of unemployment during the first year of their careers, suggesting a smoother transition to the labor market. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.57.4.0418-9460R2 SN - 0022-166X SN - 1548-8004 VL - 57 IS - 4 SP - 1242 EP - 1275 PB - University of Wisconsin Press CY - Madison ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Steckel, Jan Christoph A1 - Missbach, Leonard A1 - Ohlendorf, Nils A1 - Feindt, Simon A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias T1 - Effects of the energy price crisis on European households BT - socio-political challenges and policy options Y1 - 2022 UR - https://www.mcc-berlin.net/fileadmin/data/C18_MCC_Publications/2022_MCC_Effects_of_the_energy_price_crisis_on_European_households.pdf PB - Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) gGmbH CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Flachsland, Christian A1 - Knopf, Brigitte A1 - Amberg, Maximilian A1 - Bergmann, Tobias A1 - Kellner, Maximilian A1 - Stüber, Sophia A1 - Haywood, Luke A1 - Roolfs, Christina A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar T1 - Effects of the energy price crisis on households in Germany BT - socio-political challenges and policy options Y1 - 2022 UR - https://www.mcc-berlin.net/fileadmin/data/C18_MCC_Publications/2022_MCC_Effects_of_the_energy_price_crisis_on_households.pdf PB - Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) gGmbH CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Blanz, Alkis A1 - Eydam, Ulrich A1 - Heinemann, Maik A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Moretti, Nikolaj T1 - Fiscal Policy and Energy Price Shocks T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - The effects of energy price increases are heterogeneous between households and firms. Financially constrained poorer households, who spend a larger relative share of their income on energy, are particularly affected. In this analysis, we examine the macroeconomic and welfare effects of energy price shocks in the presence of credit-constrained households that have subsistence-level energy demand. Within a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model calibrated for the German economy, we compare the performance of different policy measures (transfers and energy subsidies) and different financing schemes (income tax vs. debt). Our results show that credit-constrained households prefer debt over tax financing regardless of the compensation measure due to their difficulty to smooth consumption. On the contrary, rich households tend to prefer tax-financed measures as they increase the labor supply of poor households. From an aggregate perspective, tax-financed measures targeting firms effectively cushion aggregate output losses. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 70 KW - energy prices KW - E-DSGE KW - fiscal policy KW - welfare Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-612763 SN - 2628-653X IS - 70 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Amoroso, Sara A1 - Herrmann, Benedikt A1 - Kritikos, Alexander T1 - The Role of Regulation and Regional Government Quality for High Growth Firms BT - The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - High growth firms (HGFs) are important for job creation and considered to be precursors of economic growth. We investigate how formal institutions, like product- and labor-market regulations, as well as the quality of regional governments that implement these regulations, affect HGF development across European regions. Using data from Eurostat, OECD, WEF, and Gothenburg University, we show that both regulatory stringency and the quality of the regional government influence the regional shares of HGFs. More importantly, we find that the effect of labor- and product-market regulations ultimately depends on the quality of regional governments: in regions with high quality of government, the share of HGFs is neither affected by the level of product market regulation, nor by more or less flexibility in hiring and firing practices. Our findings contribute to the debate on the effects of regulations by showing that regulations are not, per se, “good, bad, and ugly”, rather their impact depends on the efficiency of regional governments. Our paper offers important building blocks to develop tailored policy measures that may influence the development of HGFs in a region. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 71 KW - High growth firms KW - Regulation KW - Quality of regional governments KW - Regions Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-612771 SN - 2628-653X IS - 71 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Späth, Maximilian A1 - Goller, Daniel T1 - Gender differences in investment reactions to irrelevant information T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Economic agents often irrationally base their decision-making on irrelevant information. This research analyzes whether men and women react to futile information about past outcomes. For this purpose, we run a laboratory experiment (Study 1) and use field data (Study 2). In both studies, the behavior of men is consistent with falsely assumed negative autocorrelation, often referred to as gambler’s fallacy Women’s behavior aligns with falsely assumed positive autocorrelation, a notion of the hot hand fallacy. On the aggregate, the two fallacies cancel out. Even when individuals are, on average, rational, the biases in the decision-making of subgroups might cause inefficient outcomes. In a mediation analysis, we find that a) the agents stated perceived probabilities of future outcomes are not blurred by irrelevant information and b) about 40 % of the observed biases are driven by differences in the perceived attractiveness of available choices caused by the irrelevant information. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 67 KW - hot hand fallacy KW - gambler’s fallac KW - gender KW - irrelevant information Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-606351 SN - 2628-653X IS - 67 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Rodríguez Guio, Daniel Felipe T1 - Divergent thinking and post-launch entrepreneurial outcomes BT - non-linearities and the moderating role of experience T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Divergent thinking is the ability to produce numerous and diverse responses to questions or tasks, and it is used as a predictor of creative achievement. It plays a significant role in the business organization’s innovation process and the recognition of new business opportunities. Drawing upon the cumulative process model of creativity in entrepreneurship, we hypothesize that divergent thinking has a lasting effect on post-launch entrepreneurial outcomes related to innovation and growth, but that this relation might not always be linear. Additionally, we hypothesize that domain-specific experience has a moderating role in this relation. We test our hypotheses based on a representative longitudinal sample of 457 German business founders, which we observe up until 40 months after start-up. We find strong relative effects for innovation and growth outcomes. For survival we find conclusive evidence for non-linearities in the effects of divergent thinking. Additionally, we show that such effects are moderated by the type of domain-specific experience that entrepreneurs gathered pre-launch, as it shapes the individual’s ideational abilities to fit into more sophisticated strategies regarding entrepreneurial creative achievement. Our findings have relevant policy implications in characterizing and identifying business start-ups with growth and innovation potential, allowing a more efficient allocation of public and private funds. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 68 KW - divergent thinking KW - entrepreneurial performance KW - survival KW - business expansion KW - innovation Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-607408 SN - 2628-653X IS - 68 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Sondergeld, Virginia A1 - Wrohlich, Katharina T1 - Women in management and the gender pay gap T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We analyze the impact of women’s managerial representation on the gender pay gap among employees on the establishment level using German Linked-Employer-Employee-Data from the years 2004 to 2018. For identification of a causal effect we employ a panel model with establishment fixed effects and industry-specific time dummies. Our results show that a higher share of women in management significantly reduces the gender pay gap within the firm. An increase in the share of women in first-level management e.g. from zero to above 33 percent decreases the adjusted gender pay gap from a baseline of 15 percent by 1.2 percentage points, i.e. to roughly 14 percent. The effect is stronger for women in second-level than first-level management, indicating that women managers with closer interactions with their subordinates have a higher impact on the gender pay gap than women on higher management levels. The results are similar for East and West Germany, despite the lower gender pay gap and more gender egalitarian social norms in East Germany. From a policy perspective, we conclude that increasing the number of women in management positions has the potential to reduce the gender pay gap to a limited extent. However, further policy measures will be needed in order to fully close the gender gap in pay. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 66 KW - gender pay gap KW - women in management KW - board diversity KW - two-way fixed effects KW - linked employer-employee data Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-605813 SN - 2628-653X IS - 66 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Eydam, Ulrich A1 - Leupold, Florian T1 - What is it good for? BT - On the Inflationary Effects of Military Conflicts T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Military conflicts and wars affect a country’s development in various dimensions. Rising inflation rates are a potentially important economic effect associated with conflict. High inflation can undermine investment, weigh on private consumption, and threaten macroeconomic stability. Furthermore, these effects are not necessarily restricted to the locality of the conflict, but can also spill over to other countries. Therefore, to understand how conflict affects the economy and to make a more comprehensive assessment of the costs of armed conflict, it is important to take inflationary effects into account. To disentangle the conflict-inflation-nexus and to quantify this relationship, we conduct a panel analysis for 175 countries over the period 1950–2019. To capture indirect inflationary effects, we construct a distance based spillover index. In general, the results of our analysis confirm a statistically significant positive direct association between conflicts and inflation rates. This finding is robust across various model specifications. Moreover, our results indicate that conflict induced inflation is not solely driven by increasing money supply. Furthermore, we document a statistically significant positive indirect association between conflicts and inflation rates in uninvolved countries. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 65 KW - inflation KW - wars KW - military conflicts KW - spillover effects KW - dynamic panel estimation Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-597966 SN - 2628-653X IS - 65 ER -