TY - JOUR A1 - Berry, Paul E. A1 - Dammhahn, Melanie A1 - Blaum, Niels T1 - Keeping cool on hot days BT - activity responses of African antelope to heat extremes JF - Frontiers in ecology and evolution N2 - Long-lived organisms are likely to respond to a rapidly changing climate with behavioral flexibility. Animals inhabiting the arid parts of southern Africa face a particularly rapid rise in temperature which in combination with food and water scarcity places substantial constraints on the ability of animals to tolerate heat. We investigated how three species of African antelope-springbok Antidorcas marsupialis, kudu Tragelaphus strepsiceros and eland T. oryx-differing in body size, habitat preference and movement ecology, change their activity in response to extreme heat in an arid savanna. Serving as a proxy for activity, dynamic body acceleration data recorded every five minutes were analyzed for seven to eight individuals per species for the three hottest months of the year. Activity responses to heat during the hottest time of day (the afternoons) were investigated and diel activity patterns were compared between hot and cool days. Springbok, which prefer open habitat, are highly mobile and the smallest of the species studied, showed the greatest decrease in activity with rising temperature. Furthermore, springbok showed reduced mean activity over the 24 h cycle on hot days compared to cool days. Large-bodied eland seemed less affected by afternoon heat than springbok. While eland also reduced diurnal activity on hot days compared to cool days, they compensated for this by increasing nocturnal activity, possibly because their predation risk is lower. Kudu, which are comparatively sedentary and typically occupy shady habitat, seemed least affected during the hottest time of day and showed no appreciable difference in diel activity patterns between hot and cool days. The interplay between habitat preference, body size, movement patterns, and other factors seems complex and even sub-lethal levels of heat stress have been shown to impact an animal's long-term survival and reproduction. Thus, differing heat tolerances among species could result in a shift in the composition of African herbivore communities as temperatures continue to rise, with significant implications for economically important wildlife-based land use and conservation. KW - springbok KW - kudu KW - eland KW - dynamic body acceleration KW - tri-axial accelerometers KW - behavioral flexibility KW - climate change KW - savanna ecology Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2023.1172303 SN - 2296-701X VL - 11 PB - Frontiers Media CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Stiegler, Jonas A1 - Pahl, Janice A1 - Guillen, Rafael Arce A1 - Ullmann, Wiebke A1 - Blaum, Niels T1 - The heat is on BT - impacts of rising temperature on the activity of a common European mammal JF - Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution N2 - Climate conditions severely impact the activity and, consequently, the fitness of wildlife species across the globe. Wildlife can respond to new climatic conditions, but the pace of human-induced change limits opportunities for adaptation or migration. Thus, how these changes affect behavior, movement patterns, and activity levels remains unclear. In this study, we investigate how extreme weather conditions affect the activity of European hares (Lepus europaeus) during their peak reproduction period. When hares must additionally invest energy in mating, prevailing against competitors, or lactating, we investigated their sensitivities to rising temperatures, wind speed, and humidity. To quantify their activity, we used the overall dynamic body acceleration (ODBA) calculated from tri-axial acceleration measurements of 33 GPS-collared hares. Our analysis revealed that temperature, humidity, and wind speed are important in explaining changes in activity, with a strong response for high temperatures above 25 & DEG;C and the highest change in activity during temperature extremes of over 35 & DEG;C during their inactive period. Further, we found a non-linear relationship between temperature and activity and an interaction of activity changes between day and night. Activity increased at higher temperatures during the inactive period (day) and decreased during the active period (night). This decrease was strongest during hot tropical nights. At a stage of life when mammals such as hares must substantially invest in reproduction, the sensitivity of females to extreme temperatures was particularly pronounced. Similarly, both sexes increased their activity at high humidity levels during the day and low wind speeds, irrespective of the time of day, while the effect of humidity was stronger for males. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding the complex relationships between extreme weather conditions and mammal behavior, critical for conservation and management. With ongoing climate change, extreme weather events such as heat waves and heavy rainfall are predicted to occur more often and last longer. These events will directly impact the fitness of hares and other wildlife species and hence the population dynamics of already declining populations across Europe. KW - activity KW - ODBA KW - animal tracking KW - European hare KW - extreme weather events KW - climate change Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2023.1193861 SN - 2296-701X VL - 11 PB - Frontiers Media CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reibold, Kerstin T1 - Settler Colonialism, Decolonization, and Climate Change JF - Journal of applied philosophy N2 - The article proposes that climate change makes enduring colonial injustices and structures visible. It focuses on the imposition and dominance of colonial concepts of land and self-determination on Indigenous peoples in settler states. It argues that if the dominance of these colonial frameworks remains unaddressed, the progressing climate change will worsen other colonial injustices, too. Specifically, Indigenous self-determination capabilities will be increasingly undermined, and Indigenous peoples will experience the loss of what they understand as relevant land from within their own ontologies of land. The article holds that even if settler states strive to repair colonial injustices, these efforts will be unsuccessful if climate change occurs and decolonization is pursued within the framework of a settler colonial ontology of land. Therefore, the article suggests, decolonization of the ontologies of land and concepts of self-determination is a precondition for a just response to climate change. KW - territorial rights KW - indigenous rights KW - climate change KW - colonialism Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/japp.12573 SN - 0264-3758 SN - 1468-5930 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rolph, Rebecca A1 - Overduin, Pier Paul A1 - Ravens, Thomas A1 - Lantuit, Hugues A1 - Langer, Moritz T1 - ArcticBeach v1.0 BT - a physics-based parameterization of pan-Arctic coastline erosion JF - Frontiers in Earth Science N2 - In the Arctic, air temperatures are increasing and sea ice is declining, resulting in larger waves and a longer open water season, all of which intensify the thaw and erosion of ice-rich coasts. Climate change has been shown to increase the rate of Arctic coastal erosion, causing problems for Arctic cultural heritage, existing industrial, military, and civil infrastructure, as well as changes in nearshore biogeochemistry. Numerical models that reproduce historical and project future Arctic erosion rates are necessary to understand how further climate change will affect these problems, and no such model yet exists to simulate the physics of erosion on a pan-Arctic scale. We have coupled a bathystrophic storm surge model to a simplified physical erosion model of a permafrost coastline. This Arctic erosion model, called ArcticBeach v1.0, is a first step toward a physical parameterization of Arctic shoreline erosion for larger-scale models. It is forced by wind speed and direction, wave period and height, sea surface temperature, all of which are masked during times of sea ice cover near the coastline. Model tuning requires observed historical retreat rates (at least one value), as well as rough nearshore bathymetry. These parameters are already available on a pan-Arctic scale. The model is validated at three study sites at 1) Drew Point (DP), Alaska, 2) Mamontovy Khayata (MK), Siberia, and 3) Veslebogen Cliffs, Svalbard. Simulated cumulative retreat rates for DP and MK respectively (169 and 170 m) over the time periods studied at each site (2007-2016, and 1995-2018) are found to the same order of magnitude as observed cumulative retreat (172 and 120 m). The rocky Veslebogen cliffs have small observed cumulative retreat rates (0.05 m over 2014-2016), and our model was also able to reproduce this same order of magnitude of retreat (0.08 m). Given the large differences in geomorphology between the study sites, this study provides a proof-of-concept that ArcticBeach v1.0 can be applied on very different permafrost coastlines. ArcticBeach v1.0 provides a promising starting point to project retreat of Arctic shorelines, or to evaluate historical retreat in places that have had few observations. KW - permafrost KW - erosion KW - modelling KW - arctic KW - climate change Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.962208 SN - 2296-6463 VL - 10 PB - Frontiers Media CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Li, Zhen A1 - Spangenberg, Erik A1 - Schicks, Judith Maria A1 - Kempka, Thomas T1 - Numerical Simulation of Coastal Sub-Permafrost Gas Hydrate Formation in the Mackenzie Delta, Canadian Arctic JF - Energies N2 - The Mackenzie Delta (MD) is a permafrost-bearing region along the coasts of the Canadian Arctic which exhibits high sub-permafrost gas hydrate (GH) reserves. The GH occurring at the Mallik site in the MD is dominated by thermogenic methane (CH4), which migrated from deep conventional hydrocarbon reservoirs, very likely through the present fault systems. Therefore, it is assumed that fluid flow transports dissolved CH4 upward and out of the deeper overpressurized reservoirs via the existing polygonal fault system and then forms the GH accumulations in the Kugmallit-Mackenzie Bay Sequences. We investigate the feasibility of this mechanism with a thermo-hydraulic-chemical numerical model, representing a cross section of the Mallik site. We present the first simulations that consider permafrost formation and thawing, as well as the formation of GH accumulations sourced from the upward migrating CH4-rich formation fluid. The simulation results show that temperature distribution, as well as the thickness and base of the ice-bearing permafrost are consistent with corresponding field observations. The primary driver for the spatial GH distribution is the permeability of the host sediments. Thus, the hypothesis on GH formation by dissolved CH4 originating from deeper geological reservoirs is successfully validated. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that the permafrost has been substantially heated to 0.8-1.3 degrees C, triggered by the global temperature increase of about 0.44 degrees C and further enhanced by the Arctic Amplification effect at the Mallik site from the early 1970s to the mid-2000s. KW - gas hydrate KW - permafrost KW - methane KW - faults KW - climate change KW - Mallik KW - numerical simulations Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/en15144986 SN - 1996-1073 VL - 15 IS - 14 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Böhnke, Denise A1 - Krehl, Alice A1 - Moermann, Kai A1 - Volk, Rebekka A1 - Lützkendorf, Thomas A1 - Naber, Elias A1 - Becker, Ronja A1 - Norra, Stefan T1 - Mapping urban green and its ecosystem services at microscale-a methodological approach for climate adaptation and biodiversity JF - Sustainability / Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) N2 - The current awareness of the high importance of urban green leads to a stronger need for tools to comprehensively represent urban green and its benefits. A common scientific approach is the development of urban ecosystem services (UES) based on remote sensing methods at the city or district level. Urban planning, however, requires fine-grained data that match local management practices. Hence, this study linked local biotope and tree mapping methods to the concept of ecosystem services. The methodology was tested in an inner-city district in SW Germany, comparing publicly accessible areas and non-accessible courtyards. The results provide area-specific [m(2)] information on the green inventory at the microscale, whereas derived stock and UES indicators form the basis for comparative analyses regarding climate adaptation and biodiversity. In the case study, there are ten times more micro-scale green spaces in private courtyards than in the public space, as well as twice as many trees. The approach transfers a scientific concept into municipal planning practice, enables the quantitative assessment of urban green at the microscale and illustrates the importance for green stock data in private areas to enhance decision support in urban development. Different aspects concerning data collection and data availability are critically discussed. KW - climate adaptation KW - urban green KW - mapping KW - ecosystem service cascade KW - model KW - surface type-function-concept KW - planning indicators KW - city district KW - level KW - urban planning practice KW - climate change Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/su14159029 SN - 2071-1050 VL - 14 IS - 15 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Guzman Arias, Diego Alejandro A1 - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme A1 - Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario T1 - Multi-driver ensemble to evaluate the water utility business interruption cost induced by hydrological drought risk scenarios in Brazil JF - Urban water journal N2 - Climate change and increasing water demand in urban environments necessitate planning water utility companies' finances. Traditionally, methods to estimate the direct water utility business interruption costs (WUBIC) caused by droughts have not been clearly established. We propose a multi-driver assessment method. We project the water yield using a hydrological model driven by regional climate models under radiative forcing scenarios. We project water demand under stationary and non-stationary conditions to estimate drought severity and duration, which are linked with pricing policies recently adopted by the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company. The results showed water insecurity. The non-stationary trend imposed larger differences in the drought resilience financial gap, suggesting that the uncertainties of WUBIC derived from demand and climate models are greater than those associated with radiative forcing scenarios. As populations increase, proactively controlling demand is recommended to avoid or minimize reactive policy changes during future drought events, repeating recent financial impacts. KW - Business interruption cost KW - water utility company KW - hydrological KW - droughts KW - water security KW - urban water KW - climate change Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2022.2058564 SN - 1573-062X SN - 1744-9006 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Leins, Johannes A. A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Drechsler, Martin T1 - Large-scale PVA modeling of insects in cultivated grasslands BT - the role of dispersal in mitigating the effects of management schedules under climate change JF - Ecology and evolution N2 - In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on the severity of climate change in subregions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60-year periods (2020-2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 x 250 m(2)) scale in 107 subregions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections, and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many subregions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle. KW - bilinear interpolation KW - climate change KW - dispersal success KW - land use KW - large marsh grasshopper KW - spatially explicit model Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9063 SN - 2045-7758 VL - 12 IS - 7 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kong, Xiangzhen A1 - Ghaffar, Salman A1 - Determann, Maria A1 - Friese, Kurt A1 - Jomaa, Seifeddine A1 - Mi, Chenxi A1 - Shatwell, Tom A1 - Rinke, Karsten A1 - Rode, Michael T1 - Reservoir water quality deterioration due to deforestation emphasizes the indirect effects of global change JF - Water research : a journal of the International Association on Water Quality (IAWQ) N2 - Deforestation is currently a widespread phenomenon and a growing environmental concern in the era of rapid climate change. In temperate regions, it is challenging to quantify the impacts of deforestation on the catchment dynamics and downstream aquatic ecosystems such as reservoirs and disentangle these from direct climate change impacts, let alone project future changes to inform management. Here, we tackled this issue by investigating a unique catchment-reservoir system with two reservoirs in distinct trophic states (meso- and eutrophic), both of which drain into the largest drinking water reservoir in Germany. Due to the prolonged droughts in 2015-2018, the catchment of the mesotrophic reservoir lost an unprecedented area of forest (exponential increase since 2015 and ca. 17.1% loss in 2020 alone). We coupled catchment nutrient exports (HYPE) and reservoir ecosystem dynamics (GOTM-WET) models using a process-based modeling approach. The coupled model was validated with datasets spanning periods of rapid deforestation, which makes our future projections highly robust. Results show that in a short-term time scale (by 2035), increasing nutrient flux from the catchment due to vast deforestation (80% loss) can turn the mesotrophic reservoir into a eutrophic state as its counterpart. Our results emphasize the more prominent impacts of deforestation than the direct impact of climate warming in impairment of water quality and ecological services to downstream aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, we propose to evaluate the impact of climate change on temperate reservoirs by incorporating a time scale-dependent context, highlighting the indirect impact of deforestation in the short-term scale. In the long-term scale (e.g. to 2100), a guiding hypothesis for future research may be that indirect effects (e.g., as mediated by catchment dynamics) are as important as the direct effects of climate warming on aquatic ecosystems. KW - deforestation KW - climate change KW - temperate regions KW - reservoir KW - eutrophication KW - process-based modeling Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2022.118721 SN - 0043-1354 SN - 1879-2448 VL - 221 PB - Elsevier Science CY - Amsterdam [u.a.] ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mtilatila, Lucy Mphatso Ng'ombe A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef T1 - Temporal evaluation and projections of meteorological droughts in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin, Southeast Africa JF - Frontiers in water N2 - The study examined the potential future changes of drought characteristics in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin in Southeast Africa. This region strongly depends on water resources to generate electricity and food. Future projections (considering both moderate and high emission scenarios) of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of 16 bias-corrected climate model combinations were blended with a scenario-neutral response surface approach to analyses changes in: (i) the meteorological conditions, (ii) the meteorological water balance, and (iii) selected drought characteristics such as drought intensity, drought months, and drought events, which were derived from the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index. Changes were analyzed for a near-term (2021-2050) and far-term period (2071-2100) with reference to 1976-2005. The effect of bias-correction (i.e., empirical quantile mapping) on the ability of the climate model ensemble to reproduce observed drought characteristics as compared to raw climate projections was also investigated. Results suggest that the bias-correction improves the climate models in terms of reproducing temperature and precipitation statistics but not drought characteristics. Still, despite the differences in the internal structures and uncertainties that exist among the climate models, they all agree on an increase of meteorological droughts in the future in terms of higher drought intensity and longer events. Drought intensity is projected to increase between +25 and +50% during 2021-2050 and between +131 and +388% during 2071-2100. This translates into +3 to +5, and +7 to +8 more drought months per year during both periods, respectively. With longer lasting drought events, the number of drought events decreases. Projected droughts based on the high emission scenario are 1.7 times more severe than droughts based on the moderate scenario. That means that droughts in this region will likely become more severe in the coming decades. Despite the inherent high uncertainties of climate projections, the results provide a basis in planning and (water-)managing activities for climate change adaptation measures in Malawi. This is of particular relevance for water management issues referring hydro power generation and food production, both for rain-fed and irrigated agriculture. KW - meteorological drought KW - drought intensity KW - climate change KW - drought KW - events KW - Lake Malawi KW - Shire River KW - drought projections KW - South-Eastern KW - Africa Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2022.1041452 SN - 2624-9375 VL - 4 PB - Frontiers Media CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mtilatila, Lucy Mphatso Ng'ombe A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef T1 - Temporal evaluation and projections of meteorological droughts in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin, Southeast Africa JF - Frontiers in Water N2 - The study examined the potential future changes of drought characteristics in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin in Southeast Africa. This region strongly depends on water resources to generate electricity and food. Future projections (considering both moderate and high emission scenarios) of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of 16 bias-corrected climate model combinations were blended with a scenario-neutral response surface approach to analyses changes in: (i) the meteorological conditions, (ii) the meteorological water balance, and (iii) selected drought characteristics such as drought intensity, drought months, and drought events, which were derived from the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index. Changes were analyzed for a near-term (2021–2050) and far-term period (2071–2100) with reference to 1976–2005. The effect of bias-correction (i.e., empirical quantile mapping) on the ability of the climate model ensemble to reproduce observed drought characteristics as compared to raw climate projections was also investigated. Results suggest that the bias-correction improves the climate models in terms of reproducing temperature and precipitation statistics but not drought characteristics. Still, despite the differences in the internal structures and uncertainties that exist among the climate models, they all agree on an increase of meteorological droughts in the future in terms of higher drought intensity and longer events. Drought intensity is projected to increase between +25 and +50% during 2021–2050 and between +131 and +388% during 2071–2100. This translates into +3 to +5, and +7 to +8 more drought months per year during both periods, respectively. With longer lasting drought events, the number of drought events decreases. Projected droughts based on the high emission scenario are 1.7 times more severe than droughts based on the moderate scenario. That means that droughts in this region will likely become more severe in the coming decades. Despite the inherent high uncertainties of climate projections, the results provide a basis in planning and (water-)managing activities for climate change adaptation measures in Malawi. This is of particular relevance for water management issues referring hydro power generation and food production, both for rain-fed and irrigated agriculture. KW - meteorological drought KW - drought intensity KW - climate change KW - drought events KW - Lake Malawi KW - Shire River KW - drought projections KW - South-Eastern Africa Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2022.1041452 SN - 2624-9375 SP - 1 EP - 16 PB - Frontiers Media S.A. CY - Lausanne, Schweiz ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ben Nsir, Siwar A1 - Jomaa, Seifeddine A1 - Yildirim, Umit A1 - Zhou, Xiangqian A1 - D'Oria, Marco A1 - Rode, Michael A1 - Khlifi, Slaheddine T1 - Assessment of climate change impact on discharge of the lakhmass catchment (Northwest Tunisia) JF - Water N2 - The Mediterranean region is increasingly recognized as a climate change hotspot but is highly underrepresented in hydrological climate change studies. This study aims to investigate the climate change effects on the hydrology of Lakhmass catchment in Tunisia. Lakhmass catchment is a part of the Medium Valley of Medjerda in northwestern Tunisia that drains an area of 126 km(2). First, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning light (HBV-light) model was calibrated and validated successfully at a daily time step to simulate discharge during the 1981-1986 period. The Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency and Percent bias (NSE, PBIAS) were (0.80, +2.0%) and (0.53, -9.5%) for calibration (September 1982-August 1984) and validation (September 1984-August 1986) periods, respectively. Second, HBV-light model was considered as a predictive tool to simulate discharge in a baseline period (1981-2009) and future projections using data (precipitation and temperature) from thirteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climatic Models (RCMs). We used two trajectories of Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Each RCP is divided into three projection periods: near-term (2010-2039), mid-term (2040-2069) and long-term (2070-2099). For both scenarios, a decrease in precipitation and discharge will be expected with an increase in air temperature and a reduction in precipitation with almost 5% for every +1 degrees C of global warming. By long-term (2070-2099) projection period, results suggested an increase in temperature with about 2.7 degrees C and 4 degrees C, and a decrease in precipitation of approximately 7.5% and 15% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This will likely result in a reduction of discharge of 12.5% and 36.6% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This situation calls for early climate change adaptation measures under a participatory approach, including multiple stakeholders and water users. KW - hydrological modeling KW - HBV-light model KW - Mediterranean KW - discharge KW - climate change KW - RCP4,5 and 8,5 Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/w14142242 SN - 2073-4441 VL - 14 IS - 14 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - McCool, Weston C. A1 - Codding, Brian F. A1 - Vernon, Kenneth B. A1 - Wilson, Kurt M. A1 - Yaworsky, Peter M. A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Kennett, Douglas J. T1 - Climate change-induced population pressure drives high rates of lethal violence in the Prehispanic central Andes JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America : PNAS N2 - Understanding the influence of climate change and population pressure on human conflict remains a critically important topic in the social sciences. Long-term records that evaluate these dynamics across multiple centuries and outside the range of modern climatic variation are especially capable of elucidating the relative effect of-and the interaction between-climate and demography. This is crucial given that climate change may structure population growth and carrying capacity, while both climate and population influence per capita resource availability. This study couples paleoclimatic and demographic data with osteological evaluations of lethal trauma from 149 directly accelerator mass spectrometry C-14-dated individuals from the Nasca highland region of Peru. Multiple local and supraregional precipitation proxies are combined with a summed probability distribution of 149 C-14 dates to estimate population dynamics during a 700-y study window. Counter to previous findings, our analysis reveals a precipitous increase in violent deaths associated with a period of productive and stable climate, but volatile population dynamics. We conclude that favorable local climate conditions fostered population growth that put pressure on the marginal and highly circumscribed resource base, resulting in violent resource competition that manifested in over 450 y of internecine warfare. These findings help support a general theory of intergroup violence, indicating that relative resource scarcity-whether driven by reduced resource abundance or increased competition-can lead to violence in subsistence societies when the outcome is lower per capita resource availability. KW - climate change KW - population pressure KW - warfare KW - lethal violence KW - Andes Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2117556119 SN - 0027-8424 SN - 1091-6490 VL - 119 IS - 17 PB - National Acad. of Sciences CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Katzenberger, Anja A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Schewe, Jacob A1 - Pongratz, Julia T1 - Intensification of very wet monsoon seasons in India under global warming JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Rainfall-intense summer monsoon seasons on the Indian subcontinent that are exceeding long-term averages cause widespread floods and landslides. Here we show that the latest generation of coupled climate models robustly project an intensification of very rainfall-intense seasons (June-September). Under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP5-8.5, very wet monsoon seasons as observed in only 5 years in the period 1965-2015 are projected to occur 8 times more often in 2050-2100 in the multi-model average. Under SSP2-4.5, these seasons become only a factor of 6 times more frequent, showing that even modest efforts to mitigate climate change can have a strong impact on the frequency of very strong rainfall seasons. Besides, we find that the increasing risk of extreme seasonal rainfall is accompanied by a shift from days with light rainfall to days with moderate or heavy rainfall. Additionally, the number of wet days is projected to increase. KW - Indian monsoon KW - climate modeling KW - extreme seasons KW - climate change KW - CMIP6 KW - India Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098856 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 49 IS - 15 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Souto-Veiga, Rodrigo A1 - Groeneveld, Juergen A1 - Enright, Neal J. A1 - Fontaine, Joseph B. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Declining pollination success reinforces negative climate and fire change impacts in a serotinous, fire-killed plant JF - Plant ecology : an international journal N2 - Climate change projections predict that Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs) are becoming hotter and drier and that fires will become more frequent and severe. While most plant species in these important biodiversity hotspots are adapted to hot, dry summers and recurrent fire, the Interval Squeeze framework suggests that reduced seed production (demographic shift), reduced seedling establishment after fire (post fire recruitment shift), and reduction in the time between successive fires (fire interval shift) will threaten fire killed species under climate change. One additional potential driver of accelerated species decline, however, has not been considered so far: the decrease in pollination success observed in many ecosystems worldwide has the potential to further reduce seed accumulation and thus population persistence also in these already threatened systems. Using the well-studied fire-killed and serotinous shrub species Banksia hookeriana as an example, we apply a new spatially implicit population simulation model to explore population dynamics under past (1988-2002) and current (2003-2017) climate conditions, deterministic and stochastic fire regimes, and alternative scenarios of pollination decline. Overall, model results suggest that while B. hookeriana populations were stable under past climate conditions, they will not continue to persist under current (and prospective future) climate. Negative effects of climatic changes and more frequent fires are reinforced by the measured decline in seed set leading to further reduction in the mean persistence time by 12-17%. These findings clearly indicate that declining pollination rates can be a critical factor that increases further the pressure on the persistence of fire-killed plants. Future research needs to investigate whether other fire-killed species are similarly threatened, and if local population extinction may be compensated by recolonization events, facilitating persistence in spatially structured meta-communities. KW - climate change KW - fire frequency KW - interval squeeze KW - pollination KW - process-based simulation model KW - mediterranean-type ecosystem Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-022-01244-7 SN - 1385-0237 SN - 1573-5052 VL - 223 IS - 7 SP - 863 EP - 881 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Skålevåg, Amalie A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef T1 - Daily streamflow trends in Western versus Eastern Norway and their attribution to hydro-meteorological drivers JF - Hydrological processes : an international journal N2 - Regional warming and modifications in precipitation regimes has large impacts on streamflow in Norway, where both rainfall and snowmelt are important runoff generating processes. Hydrological impacts of recent changes in climate are usually investigated by trend analyses applied on annual, seasonal, or monthly time series. None of these detect sub-seasonal changes and their underlying causes. This study investigated sub-seasonal changes in streamflow, rainfall, and snowmelt in 61 and 51 catchments respectively in Western (Vestlandet) and Eastern (ostlandet) Norway by applying the Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen estimator on 10-day moving averaged daily time series over a 30-year period (1983-2012). The relative contribution of rainfall versus snowmelt to daily streamflow and the changes therein have also been estimated to identify the changing relevance of these driving processes over the same period. Detected changes in 10-day moving averaged daily streamflow were finally attributed to changes in the most important hydro-meteorological drivers using multiple-regression models with increasing complexity. Earlier spring flow timing in both regions occur due to earlier snowmelt. ostlandet shows increased summer streamflow in catchments up to 1100 m a.s.l. and slightly increased winter streamflow in about 50% of the catchments. Trend patterns in Vestlandet are less coherent. The importance of rainfall has increased in both regions. Attribution of trends reveals that changes in rainfall and snowmelt can explain some streamflow changes where they are dominant processes (e.g., spring snowmelt in ostlandet and autumn rainfall in Vestlandet). Overall, the detected streamflow changes can be best explained by adding temperature trends as an additional predictor, indicating the relevance of additional driving processes such as increased glacier melt and evapotranspiration. KW - attribution KW - climate change KW - hydrological change KW - hydro-meteorological KW - driver KW - streamflow trend KW - trend analysis Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14329 SN - 0885-6087 SN - 1099-1085 VL - 35 IS - 8 PB - Wiley CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ungelenk, Johannes T1 - Émile Zola and the literary language of climate change JF - Nottingham French studies / University of Nottingham N2 - On 7 February 1861, John Tyndall, professor of natural philosophy, delivered a historical lecture: he could prove that different gases absorb heat to a very different degree, which implies that the temperate conditions provided for by the Earth's atmosphere are dependent on its particular composition of gases. The theoretical foundation of climate science was laid. Ten years later, on the other side of the Channel, a young and ambitious author was working on a comprehensive literary analysis of the French era under the Second Empire. Émile Zola had probably not heard or read of Tyndall's discovery. However, the article makes the case for reading Zola's Rougon-Macquart as an extensive story of climate change. Zola's literary attempts to capture the defining characteristic of the Second Empire led him to the insight that its various milieus were all part of the same ‘climate’: that of an all-encompassing warming. Zola suggests that this climate is man-made: the economic success of the Second Empire is based on heating, in a literal and metaphorical sense, as well as on stoking the steam-engines and creating the hypertrophic atmosphere of the hothouse that enhances life and maximises turnover and profit. In contrast to Tyndall and his audience, Zola sensed the catastrophic consequences of this warming: the Second Empire was inevitably moving towards a final débâcle, i.e. it was doomed to perish in local and ‘global’ climate catastrophes. The article foregrounds the supplementary status of Tyndall's physical and Zola's literary knowledge. As Zola's striking intuition demonstrates, literature appears to have a privileged approach to the phenomenon of man-induced climate change. N2 - Le 7 février 1861, le professeur de philosophie naturelle John Tyndall donna une communication historique: il pouvait prouver que des gaz différents absorbent la chaleur de manière différente, ce qui implique que les conditions tempérées fournies par l’atmosphère terrestre dépendent de sa composition particulière en gaz. Le fondement théorique de la science climatique était posé. Dix ans plus tard, de l'autre côté du Channel, un jeune auteur ambitieux était en train de faire une analyse littéraire globale de la France du Second Empire. Émile Zola n'avait probablement pas entendu parler de la découverte de Tyndall. Cependant, cet article propose de lire les Rougon Macquart de Zola comme une vaste histoire du changement climatique. Les tentatives littéraires entreprises par Zola pour capturer la caractéristique déterminante du Second Empire l'amena à réaliser que ses différents milieux faisaient tous partie du même « climat »: celui d'un réchauffement global. Zola suggère que ce climat est créé par l'humain et que le succès économique du Second Empire est basé sur l'action de chauffer dans un sens littéral et métaphorique, ainsi que sur l'alimentation des machines à vapeur et la création de l'atmosphère hypertrophiée d'une serre qui enrichit la vie et maximise l'écoulement et le profit. Contrairement à Tyndall et à son auditoire, Zola pressentit les conséquences catastrophiques d'un tel réchauffement: le Second Empire s'approchait inévitablement d'une débâcle finale, c'est-à-dire qu'il était voué à périr dans des catastrophes locales et « globales ». KW - Rougon-Macquart KW - climate change KW - John Tyndall KW - global warming KW - climate catastrophe KW - Second Empire KW - changement climatique KW - réchauffement planétaire KW - catastrophe climatique KW - Rougon-Macquart KW - Second Empire KW - John Tyndall Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3366/nfs.2021.0331 SN - 0029-4586 SN - 2047-7236 VL - 60 IS - 3 SP - 362 EP - 373 PB - Edinburgh University Press CY - Edinburgh ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ungelenk, Johannes T1 - Émile Zola and the Literary Language of Climate Change JF - Nottingham French Studies N2 - On 7 February 1861, John Tyndall, professor of natural philosophy, delivered a historical lecture: he could prove that different gases absorb heat to a very different degree, which implies that the temperate conditions provided for by the Earth's atmosphere are dependent on its particular composition of gases. The theoretical foundation of climate science was laid. Ten years later, on the other side of the Channel, a young and ambitious author was working on a comprehensive literary analysis of the French era under the Second Empire. Émile Zola had probably not heard or read of Tyndall's discovery. However, the article makes the case for reading Zola's Rougon-Macquart as an extensive story of climate change. Zola's literary attempts to capture the defining characteristic of the Second Empire led him to the insight that its various milieus were all part of the same ‘climate’: that of an all-encompassing warming. Zola suggests that this climate is man-made: the economic success of the Second Empire is based on heating, in a literal and metaphorical sense, as well as on stoking the steam-engines and creating the hypertrophic atmosphere of the hothouse that enhances life and maximises turnover and profit. In contrast to Tyndall and his audience, Zola sensed the catastrophic consequences of this warming: the Second Empire was inevitably moving towards a final débâcle, i.e. it was doomed to perish in local and ‘global’ climate catastrophes. The article foregrounds the supplementary status of Tyndall's physical and Zola's literary knowledge. As Zola's striking intuition demonstrates, literature appears to have a privileged approach to the phenomenon of man-induced climate change. N2 - Le 7 février 1861, le professeur de philosophie naturelle John Tyndall donna une communication historique: il pouvait prouver que des gaz différents absorbent la chaleur de manière différente, ce qui implique que les conditions tempérées fournies par l’atmosphère terrestre dépendent de sa composition particulière en gaz. Le fondement théorique de la science climatique était posé. Dix ans plus tard, de l'autre côté du Channel, un jeune auteur ambitieux était en train de faire une analyse littéraire globale de la France du Second Empire. Émile Zola n'avait probablement pas entendu parler de la découverte de Tyndall. Cependant, cet article propose de lire les Rougon Macquart de Zola comme une vaste histoire du changement climatique. Les tentatives littéraires entreprises par Zola pour capturer la caractéristique déterminante du Second Empire l'amena à réaliser que ses différents milieux faisaient tous partie du même « climat »: celui d'un réchauffement global. Zola suggère que ce climat est créé par l'humain et que le succès économique du Second Empire est basé sur l'action de chauffer dans un sens littéral et métaphorique, ainsi que sur l'alimentation des machines à vapeur et la création de l'atmosphère hypertrophiée d'une serre qui enrichit la vie et maximise l'écoulement et le profit. Contrairement à Tyndall et à son auditoire, Zola pressentit les conséquences catastrophiques d'un tel réchauffement: le Second Empire s'approchait inévitablement d'une débâcle finale, c'est-à-dire qu'il était voué à périr dans des catastrophes locales et « globales ». KW - Rougon-Macquart KW - climate change KW - John Tyndall KW - global warming KW - climate catastrophe KW - Second Empire KW - changement climatique KW - réchauffement planétaire KW - catastrophe climatique KW - Second Empire Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3366/nfs.2021.0331 VL - 60 IS - 3 SP - 362 EP - 373 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Han, Sungju A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian T1 - Barriers and drivers for mainstreaming nature-based solutions for flood risks BT - the case of South Korea JF - International journal of disaster risk science N2 - Nature-based solutions (NBS) are seen as a promising adaptation measure that sustainably deals with diverse societal challenges, while simultaneously delivering multiple benefits. Nature-based solutions have been highlighted as a resilient and sustainable means of mitigating floods and other hazards globally. This study examined diverging conceptualizations of NBS, as well as the attitudinal (for example, emotions and beliefs) and contextual (for example, legal and political aspects) barriers and drivers of NBS for flood risks in South Korea. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 11 experts and focused on the topic of flood risk measures and NBS case studies. The analysis found 11 barriers and five drivers in the attitudinal domain, and 13 barriers and two drivers in the contextual domain. Most experts see direct monetary benefits as an important attitudinal factor for the public. Meanwhile, the cost-effectiveness of NBS and their capacity to cope with flood risks were deemed influential factors that could lead decision makers to opt for NBS. Among the contextual factors, insufficient systems to integrate NBS in practice and the ideologicalization of NBS policy were found to be peculiar barriers, which hinder consistent realization of initiatives and a long-term national plan for NBS. Understanding the barriers and drivers related to the mainstreaming of NBS is critical if we are to make the most of such solutions for society and nature. It is also essential that we have a shared definition, expectation, and vision of NBS. KW - climate change KW - flood risk management KW - nature-based solutions (NBS) KW - South Korea Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-021-00372-4 SN - 2095-0055 SN - 2192-6395 VL - 12 IS - 5 SP - 661 EP - 672 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Warszawski, Lila A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Lenton, Timothy M. A1 - Gaffney, Owen A1 - Jacob, Daniela A1 - Klingenfeld, Daniel A1 - Koide, Ryu A1 - Costa, María Máñez A1 - Messner, Dirk A1 - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa A1 - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim A1 - Schlosser, Peter A1 - Takeuchi, Kazuhiko A1 - van der Leeuw, Sander A1 - Whiteman, Gail A1 - Rockström, Johan T1 - All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C BT - a scenario appraisal JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range). KW - climate change KW - emissions scenarios KW - 1.5 ◦C KW - negative emissions Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfeec SN - 1748-9326 N1 - Corrigendum: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbf6a VL - 16 IS - 6 PB - IOP Publishing CY - Bristol ER -