TY - JOUR A1 - Avrami, Lydia A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. T1 - Measuring and explaining the EU’s effect on national climate performance JF - Environmental Politics N2 - To what extent has the European Union (EU) had a benign or retarding effect on what its member states would have undertaken in the absence of EU climate policies during 2008–2012? A measurement tool for the EU policy’s effect is developed and shows a benign average EU effect with considerable variation across countries. The EU’s policy effectiveness vis-à-vis its member states is explained by the EU’s non-compliance mechanism, the degree of usage of the Kyoto flexible mechanisms, and national pre-Kyoto emission reduction goals. Time-series cross-sectional analyses show that the EU’s non-compliance mechanism has no effect, while the ex-ante plans for using Kyoto flexible mechanisms and/or the ambitious pre-Kyoto emission reduction targets allow member states to escape constraints imposed by EU climate policy. KW - Climate change KW - policy effectiveness KW - EU KW - kyoto protocol KW - non-compliance KW - Kyoto (flexible) mechanisms Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2018.1494945 SN - 0964-4016 SN - 1743-8934 VL - 28 IS - 5 SP - 822 EP - 846 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ayllon, Daniel A1 - Railsback, Steven Floyd A1 - Vincenzi, Simone A1 - Groeneveld, Juergen A1 - Almodoevar, Ana A1 - Grimm, Volker T1 - InSTREAM-Gen: Modelling eco-evolutionary dynamics of trout populations under anthropogenic environmental change JF - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog N2 - Current rates of environmental change are exceeding the capacity of many populations to adapt to new conditions and thus avoid demographic collapse and ultimate extinction. In particular, cold-water freshwater fish species are predicted to experience strong selective pressure from climate change and a wide range of interacting anthropogenic stressors in the near future. To implement effective management and conservation measures, it is crucial to quantify the maximum rate of change that cold-water freshwater fish populations can withstand. Here, we present a spatially explicit eco-genetic individual-based model, inSTREAM-Gen, to predict the eco-evolutionary dynamics of stream-dwelling trout under anthropogenic environmental change. The model builds on a well-tested demographic model, which includes submodels of river dynamics, bioenergetics, and adaptive habitat selection, with a new genetic module that allows exploration of genetic and life-history adaptations to new environments. The genetic module models the transmission of two key traits, size at emergence and maturity size threshold. We parameterized the model for a brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) population at the warmest edge of its range to validate it and analyze its sensitivity to parameters under contrasting thermal profiles. To illustrate potential applications of the model, we analyzed the population's demographic and evolutionary dynamics under scenarios of (1) climate change-induced warming, and (2) warming plus flow reduction resulting from climate and land use change, compared to (3) a baseline of no environmental change. The model predicted severe declines in density and biomass under climate warming. These declines were lower than expected at range margins because of evolution towards smaller size at both emergence and maturation compared to the natural evolution under the baseline conditions. Despite stronger evolutionary responses, declining rates were substantially larger under the combined warming and flow reduction scenario, leading to a high probability of population extinction over contemporary time frames. Therefore, adaptive responses could not prevent extinction under high rates of environmental change. Our model demonstrates critical elements of next generation ecological modelling aiming at predictions in a changing world as it accounts for spatial and temporal resource heterogeneity, while merging individual behaviour and bioenergetics with microevolutionary adaptations. KW - Individual-based model KW - Eco-genetic modelling KW - Eco-evolution KW - Climate change KW - Brown trout KW - Next-generation modelling Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.07.026 SN - 0304-3800 SN - 1872-7026 VL - 326 SP - 36 EP - 53 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bansard, Jennifer S. A1 - Pattberg, Philipp H. A1 - Widerberg, Oscar T1 - Cities to the rescue? Assessing the performance of transnational municipal networks in global climate governance JF - International environmental agreements: politics, law and economics N2 - Despite the proliferation and promise of subnational climate initiatives, the institutional architecture of transnational municipal networks (TMNs) is not well understood. With a view to close this research gap, the article empirically assesses the assumption that TMNs are a viable substitute for ambitious international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It addresses the aggregate phenomenon in terms of geographical distribution, central players, mitigation ambition and monitoring provisions. Examining thirteen networks, it finds that membership in TMNs is skewed toward Europe and North America while countries from the Global South are underrepresented; that only a minority of networks commit to quantified emission reductions and that these are not more ambitious than Parties to the UNFCCC; and finally that the monitoring provisions are fairly limited. In sum, the article shows that transnational municipal networks are not (yet) the representative, ambitious and transparent player they are thought to be. KW - Climate change KW - Cities and regions KW - Urban politics KW - Transnational networks Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-016-9318-9 SN - 1567-9764 SN - 1573-1553 VL - 17 SP - 229 EP - 246 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Barthold, Frauke Katrin A1 - Wiesmeier, Martin A1 - Breuer, L. A1 - Frede, Hans-Georg A1 - Wu, J. A1 - Blank, F. Benjamin T1 - Land use and climate control the spatial distribution of soil types in the grasslands of Inner Mongolia JF - Journal of arid environments N2 - The spatial distribution of soil types is controlled by a set of environmental factors such as climate, organisms, parent material and topography as well as time and space. A change of these factors will lead to a change in the spatial distribution of soil types. In this study, we use a digital soil mapping approach to improve our knowledge about major soil type distributing factors in the steppe regions of Inner Mongolia (China) which currently undergo tremendous environmental change, e.g. climate and land use change. We use Random Forests in an effort to map Reference Soil Groups according to the World Reference Base for Soil Resources (WRB) in the Xilin River catchment. We benefit from the superior prediction capabilities of RF and additional interpretive results in order to identify the major environmental factors that control spatial patterns of soil types. The nine WRB soil groups that were identified and spatially predicted for the study area are Arenosol, Calcisol, Cambisol, Chernozem, Cryosol, Gleysol, Kastanozem, Phaeozem and Regosol. Model and prediction performances of the RF model are high with an Out-of-Bag error of 51.6% for the model and a misclassification error for the predicted map of 28.9%. The main controlling factors of soil type distribution are land use, a set of topographic variables, geology and climate. However, land use and climate are of major importance and topography and geology are of minor importance. The visualizations of the predictions, the variable importance measures as result of RF and the comparisons of these with the spatial distribution of the environmental factors delivered additional, quantitative information of these controlling factors and revealed that intensively grazed areas are subjected to soil degradation. However, most of the area is still governed by natural soil forming processes which are driven by climate, topography and geology. Most importantly though, our study revealed that a shift towards warmer temperatures and lower precipitation regimes will lead to a change of the spatial distribution of RSGs towards steppe soils that store less carbon, i.e. a decrease of spatial extent of Phaeozems and an increase of spatial extent of Chernozems and Kastanozems. KW - Random Forests KW - Soil-environmental relationships KW - Steppe KW - Inner Mongolia KW - Land use change KW - Climate change Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2012.08.004 SN - 0140-1963 VL - 88 IS - 1 SP - 194 EP - 205 PB - Elsevier CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bell, M. J. A1 - Jones, E. A1 - Smith, J. A1 - Smith, P. A1 - Yeluripati, J. A1 - Augustin, Jürgen A1 - Juszczak, R. A1 - Olejnik, J. A1 - Sommer, Michael T1 - Simulation of soil nitrogen, nitrous oxide emissions and mitigation scenarios at 3 European cropland sites using the ECOSSE model JF - Nutrient cycling in agroecosystems N2 - The global warming potential of nitrous oxide (N2O) and its long atmospheric lifetime mean its presence in the atmosphere is of major concern, and that methods are required to measure and reduce emissions. Large spatial and temporal variations means, however, that simple extrapolation of measured data is inappropriate, and that other methods of quantification are required. Although process-based models have been developed to simulate these emissions, they often require a large amount of input data that is not available at a regional scale, making regional and global emission estimates difficult to achieve. The spatial extent of organic soils means that quantification of emissions from these soil types is also required, but will not be achievable using a process-based model that has not been developed to simulate soil water contents above field capacity or organic soils. The ECOSSE model was developed to overcome these limitations, and with a requirement for only input data that is readily available at a regional scale, it can be used to quantify regional emissions and directly inform land-use change decisions. ECOSSE includes the major processes of nitrogen (N) turnover, with material being exchanged between pools of SOM at rates modified by temperature, soil moisture, soil pH and crop cover. Evaluation of its performance at site-scale is presented to demonstrate its ability to adequately simulate soil N contents and N2O emissions from cropland soils in Europe. Mitigation scenarios and sensitivity analyses are also presented to demonstrate how ECOSSE can be used to estimate the impact of future climate and land-use change on N2O emissions. KW - Soil N2O emissions KW - Process-based models KW - Land-use KW - Climate change Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-011-9479-4 SN - 1385-1314 VL - 92 IS - 2 SP - 161 EP - 181 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bergholz, Kolja A1 - May, Felix A1 - Ristow, Michael A1 - Giladi, Itamar A1 - Ziv, Yaron A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Two Mediterranean annuals feature high within-population trait variability and respond differently to a precipitation gradient JF - Basic and applied ecology : Journal of the Gesellschaft für Ökologie N2 - Intraspecific trait variability plays an important role in species adaptation to climate change. However, it still remains unclear how plants in semi-arid environments respond to increasing aridity. We investigated the intraspecific trait variability of two common Mediterranean annuals (Geropogon hybridus and Crupina crupinastrum) with similar habitat preferences. They were studied along a steep precipitation gradient in Israel similar to the maximum predicted precipitation changes in the eastern Mediterranean basin (i.e. -30% until 2100). We expected a shift from competitive ability to stress tolerance with decreasing precipitation and tested this expectation by measuring key functional traits (canopy and seed release height, specific leaf area, N-and P-leaf content, seed mass). Further, we evaluated generative bet-hedging strategies by different seed traits. Both species showed different responses along the precipitation gradient. C. crupinastrum exhibited only decreased plant height toward saridity, while G. hybridus showed strong trends of generative adaptation to aridity. Different seed trait indices suggest increased bet-hedging of G. hybridus in arid environments. However, no clear trends along the precipitation gradient were observed in leaf traits (specific leaf area and leaf N-/P-content) in both species. Moreover, variance decomposition revealed that most of the observed trait variation (>> 50%) is found within populations. The findings of our study suggest that responses to increased aridity are highly species-specific and local environmental factors may have a stronger effect on intraspecific trait variation than shifts in annual precipitation. We therefore argue that trait-based analyses should focus on precipitation gradients that are comparable to predicted precipitation changes and compare precipitation effects to effects of local environmental factors. (C) 2017 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. KW - Climate change KW - Functional ecology KW - Plant height KW - Drought stress KW - Rainfall gradient KW - Trait-environment relationship KW - Local adaptation KW - Phenotypic plasticity Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.baae.2017.11.001 SN - 1439-1791 SN - 1618-0089 VL - 25 SP - 48 EP - 58 PB - Elsevier CY - Jena ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Crisologo, Irene A1 - Heistermann, Maik A1 - Öztürk, Ugur A1 - Vogel, Kristin A1 - Wendi, Dadiyorto T1 - Flash-floods: more often, more severe, more damaging? BT - An analysis of hydro-geo-environmental conditions and anthropogenic impacts T2 - Climate change, hazards and adaptation options: handling the impacts of a changing climate N2 - In recent years, urban and rural flash floods in Europe and abroad have gained considerable attention because of their sudden occurrence, severe material damages and even danger to life of inhabitants. This contribution addresses questions about possibly changing environmental conditions which might have altered the occurrence frequencies of such events and their consequences. We analyze the following major fields of environmental changes. Altered high intensity rain storm conditions, as a consequence of regionalwarming; Possibly altered runoff generation conditions in response to high intensity rainfall events; Possibly altered runoff concentration conditions in response to the usage and management of the landscape, such as agricultural, forest practices or rural roads; Effects of engineering measures in the catchment, such as retention basins, check dams, culverts, or river and geomorphological engineering measures. We take the flash-flood in Braunsbach, SW-Germany, as an example, where a particularly concise flash flood event occurred at the end of May 2016. This extreme cascading natural event led to immense damage in this particular village. The event is retrospectively analyzed with regard to meteorology, hydrology, geomorphology and damage to obtain a quantitative assessment of the processes and their development. The results show that it was a very rare rainfall event with extreme intensities, which in combination with catchment properties and altered environmental conditions led to extreme runoff, extreme debris flow and immense damages. Due to the complex and interacting processes, no single flood cause can be identified, since only the interplay of those led to such an event. We have shown that environmental changes are important, but-at least for this case study-even natural weather and hydrologic conditions would still have resulted in an extreme flash flood event. KW - Flash flood KW - Climate change KW - Extreme rainfall KW - Anthropogenic impacts Y1 - 2020 SN - 978-3-030-37425-9 SN - 978-3-030-37424-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37425-9_12 SN - 1610-2010 SP - 225 EP - 244 PB - Springer CY - Cham ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - What helps people recover from floods? BT - insights from a survey among flood-affected residents in German JF - Regional environmental change N2 - The number of people exposed to natural hazards has grown steadily over recent decades, mainly due to increasing exposure in hazard-prone areas. In the future, climate change could further enhance this trend. Still, empirical and comprehensive insights into individual recovery from natural hazards are largely lacking, hampering efforts to increase societal resilience. Drawing from a sample of 710 residents affected by flooding across Germany in June 2013, we empirically explore a wide range of variables possibly influencing self-reported recovery, including flood-event characteristics, the circumstances of the recovery process, socio-economic characteristics, and psychological factors, using multivariate statistics. We found that the amount of damage and other flood-event characteristics such as inundation depth are less important than socio-economic characteristics (e.g., sex or health status) and psychological factors (e.g., risk aversion and emotions). Our results indicate that uniform recovery efforts focusing on areas that were the most affected in terms of physical damage are insufficient to account for the heterogeneity in individual recovery results. To increase societal resilience, aid and recovery efforts should better address the long-term psychological effects of floods. KW - Floods KW - Resilience KW - Recovery KW - Natural hazards KW - Climate change KW - Adaptation Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1200-y SN - 1436-3798 SN - 1436-378X VL - 18 IS - 1 SP - 287 EP - 296 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Buter, Anuschka A1 - Heckmann, Tobias A1 - Filisetti, Lorenzo A1 - Savi, Sara A1 - Mao, Luca A1 - Gems, Bernhard A1 - Comiti, Francesco T1 - Effects of catchment characteristics and hydro-meteorological scenarios on sediment connectivity in glacierised catchments JF - Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology N2 - In the past decade, sediment connectivity has become a widely recognized characteristic of a geomorphic system. However, the quantification of functional connectivity (i.e. connectivity which arises due to the actual occurrence of sediment transport processes) and its variation over space and time is still a challenge. In this context, this study assesses the effects of expected future phenomena in the context of climate change (i.e. glacier retreat, permafrost degradation or meteorological extreme events) on sediment transport dynamics in a glacierised Alpine basin. The study area is the Sulden river basin (drainage area 130 km(2)) in the Italian Alps, which is composed of two geomorphologically diverse sub-basins. Based on graph theory, we evaluated the spatio-temporal variations in functional connectivity in these two sub-basins. The graph-object, obtained by manually mapping sediment transport processes between landforms, was adapted to 6 different hydro-meteorological scenarios, which derive from combining base, heatwave and rainstorm conditions with snowmelt and glacier-melt periods. For each scenario and each sub-basin, the sediment transport network and related catchment characteristics were analysed. To compare the effects of the scenarios on functional connectivity, we introduced a connectivity degree, calculated based on the area of the landforms involved in sediment cascades. Results indicate that the area of the basin connected to its outlet in terms of sediment transport might feature a six-fold increase in case of rainstorm conditions compared to "average " meteorological conditions assumed for the base scenario. Furthermore, markedly different effects of climate change on sediment connectivity are expected between the two sub-catchments due to their contrasting morphological and lithological characteristics, in terms of relative importance of rainfall triggered colluvial processes vs temperature-driven proglacial fluvial dynamics. KW - Functional connectivity KW - Graph theory KW - Climate change KW - Geomorphic systems Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2022.108128 SN - 0169-555X SN - 1872-695X VL - 402 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - INPR A1 - Bürger, Gerd T1 - Comment on "Bias correction, quantile mapping, and downscaling: revisiting the inflation issue" T2 - Journal of climate N2 - In a recent paper, Maraun describes the adverse effects of quantile mapping on downscaling. He argues that when large-scale GCM variables are rescaled directly to small-scale fields or even station data, genuine small-scale covariability is lost and replaced by uniform variability inherited from the larger scales. This leads to a misrepresentation mainly of areal means and long-term trends. This comment acknowledges the former point, although the argument is relatively old, but disagrees with the latter, showing that grid-size long-term trends can be different from local trends. Finally, because it is partly incorrectly addressed, some clarification is added regarding the inflation issue, stressing that neither randomization nor inflation is free of unverified assumptions. KW - Climate change KW - Statistics KW - Climate variability Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00184.1 SN - 0894-8755 SN - 1520-0442 VL - 27 IS - 4 SP - 1819 EP - 1820 PB - American Meteorological Soc. CY - Boston ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bürger, Gerd A1 - Pfister, A. A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Temperature-Driven Rise in Extreme Sub-Hourly Rainfall JF - Journal of climate N2 - Estimates of present and future extreme sub-hourly rainfall are derived from a daily spatial followed by a sub-daily temporal downscaling, the latter of which incorporates a novel, and crucial, temperature sensitivity. Specifically, daily global climate fields are spatially downscaled to local temperature T and precipitation P, which are then disaggregated to a temporal resolution of 10 min using a multiplicative random cascade model. The scheme is calibrated and validated with a group of 21 station records of 10-min resolution in Germany. The cascade model is used in the classical (denoted as MC) and in the new T-sensitive (MC+) version, which respects local Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) effects such as CC scaling. Extreme P is positively biased in both MC versions. Observed T sensitivity is absent in MC but well reproduced by MC+. Long-term positive trends in extreme sub-hourly P are generally more pronounced and more significant in MC+ than in MC. In units of 10-min rainfall, observed centennial trends in annual exceedance counts (EC) of P > 5 mm are +29% and in 3-yr return levels (RL) +27%. For the RCP4.5-simulated future, higher extremes are projected in both versions MC and MC+: per century, EC increases by 30% for MC and by 83% for MC+; the RL rises by 14% for MC and by 33% for MC+. Because the projected daily P trends are negligible, the sub-daily signal is mainly driven by local temperature. KW - Extreme events KW - Rainfall KW - Climate change KW - Statistical techniques KW - Time series KW - Stochastic models Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0136.1 SN - 0894-8755 SN - 1520-0442 VL - 32 IS - 22 SP - 7597 EP - 7609 PB - American Meteorological Soc. CY - Boston ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Caron, Maria Mercedes A1 - De Frenne, P. A1 - Brunet, J. A1 - Chabrerie, Olivier A1 - Cousins, S. A. O. A1 - De Backer, L. A1 - Diekmann, M. A1 - Graae, B. J. A1 - Heinken, Thilo A1 - Kolb, A. A1 - Naaf, T. A1 - Plue, J. A1 - Selvi, F. A1 - Strimbeck, G. R. A1 - Wulf, Monika A1 - Verheyen, Kris T1 - Latitudinal variation in seeds characteristics of Acer platanoides and A. pseudoplatanus JF - Plant ecology : an international journal N2 - Climate change will likely affect population dynamics of numerous plant species by modifying several aspects of the life cycle. Because plant regeneration from seeds may be particularly vulnerable, here we assess the possible effects of climate change on seed characteristics and present an integrated analysis of seven seed traits (nutrient concentrations, samara mass, seed mass, wing length, seed viability, germination percentage, and seedling biomass) of Acer platanoides and A. pseudoplatanus seeds collected along a wide latitudinal gradient from Italy to Norway. Seed traits were analyzed in relation to the environmental conditions experienced by the mother trees along the latitudinal gradient. We found that seed traits of A. platanoides were more influenced by the climatic conditions than those of A. pseudoplatanus. Additionally, seed viability, germination percentage, and seedling biomass of A. platanoides were strongly related to the seed mass and nutrient concentration. While A. platanoides seeds were more influenced by the environmental conditions (generally negatively affected by rising temperatures), compared to A. pseudoplatanus, A. platanoides still showed higher germination percentage and seedling biomass than A. pseudoplatanus. Thus, further research on subsequent life-history stages of both species is needed. The variation in seed quality observed along the climatic gradient highlights the importance of studying the possible impact of climate change on seed production and species demography. KW - Acer platanoides KW - Acer pseudoplatanus KW - Climate change KW - Seed traits KW - Latitudinal gradient Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-014-0343-x SN - 1385-0237 SN - 1573-5052 VL - 215 IS - 8 SP - 911 EP - 925 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Caron, Maria Mercedes A1 - De Frenne, P. A1 - Chabrerie, Olivier A1 - Cousins, S. A. O. A1 - De Backer, L. A1 - Decocq, G. A1 - Diekmann, M. A1 - Heinken, Thilo A1 - Kolb, A. A1 - Naaf, T. A1 - Plue, J. A1 - Selvi, F. A1 - Strimbeck, G. R. A1 - Wulf, M. A1 - Verheyen, Kris T1 - Impacts of warming and changes in precipitation frequency on the regeneration of two Acer species JF - Flora : morphology, distribution, functional ecology of plants KW - Seed provenance KW - Germination KW - Climate change KW - Interactive effects Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.flora.2015.05.005 SN - 0367-2530 SN - 1618-0585 VL - 214 SP - 24 EP - 33 PB - Elsevier CY - Jena ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dolgener, Nicola A1 - Freudenberger, L. A1 - Schneeweiss, N. A1 - Ibisch, P. L. A1 - Tiedemann, Ralph T1 - Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany JF - Regional environmental change N2 - Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads. KW - Brandenburg KW - Climate change KW - Distribution modelling KW - Endangered species KW - Fire-bellied toad KW - Maxent Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0468-9 SN - 1436-3798 SN - 1436-378X VL - 14 IS - 3 SP - 1063 EP - 1072 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Fer, Istem A1 - Tietjen, Britta A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - High-resolution modelling closes the gap between data and model simulations for Mid-Holocene and present-day biomes of East Africa JF - Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences N2 - East Africa hosts a striking diversity of terrestrial ecosystems, which vary both in space and time due to complex regional topography and a dynamic climate. The structure and functioning of these ecosystems under this environmental setting can be studied with dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) in a spatially explicit way. Yet, regional applications of DVMs to East Africa are rare and a comprehensive validation of such applications is missing. Here, we simulated the present-day and mid-Holocene vegetation of East Africa with the DVM, LPJ-GUESS and we conducted an exhaustive comparison of model outputs with maps of potential modern vegetation distribution, and with pollen records of local change through time. Overall, the model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of East African vegetation. To see whether running the model at higher spatial resolutions (10′ × 10′) contribute to resolve the vegetation distribution better and have a better comparison scale with the observational data (i.e. pollen data), we run the model with coarser spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) for the present-day as well. Both the area- and point-wise comparison showed that a higher spatial resolution allows to better describe spatial vegetation changes induced by the complex topography of East Africa. Our analysis of the difference between modelled mid-Holocene and modern-day vegetation showed that whether a biome shifts to another is best explained by both the amount of change in precipitation it experiences and the amount of precipitation it received originally. We also confirmed that tropical forest biomes were more sensitive to a decrease in precipitation compared to woodland and savanna biomes and that Holocene vegetation changes in East Africa were driven not only by changes in annual precipitation but also by changes in its seasonality. KW - Dynamic vegetation models KW - Biome KW - Mid-Holocene KW - Leaf area index KW - Climate change KW - East Africa Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2015.12.001 SN - 0031-0182 SN - 1872-616X VL - 444 SP - 144 EP - 151 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Fer, Istem A1 - Tietjen, Britta A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Trauth, Martin H. T1 - Modelling vegetation change during Late Cenozoic uplift of the East African plateaus JF - Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences N2 - The present-day vegetation in the tropics is mainly characterized by forests worldwide except in tropical East Africa, where forests only occur as patches at the coast and in the uplands. These forest patches result from the peculiar aridity that is linked to the uplift of the region during the Late Cenozoic. The Late Cenozoic vegetation history of East Africa is of particular interest as it has set the scene for the contemporary events in mammal and hominin evolution. In this study, we investigate the conditions under which these forest patches could have been connected, and a previous continuous forest belt could have extended and fragmented. We apply a dynamic vegetation model with a set of climatic scenarios in which we systematically alter the present-day environmental conditions such that they would be more favourable for a continuous forest belt in tropical East Africa. We consider varying environmental factors, namely temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Our results show that all of these variables play a significant role in supporting the forest biomes and a continuous forest belt could have occurred under certain combinations of these settings. With our current knowledge of the palaeoenvironmental history of East Africa, it is likely that the region hosted these conditions during the Late Cenozoic. Recent improvements on environmental hypotheses of hominin evolution highlight the role of periods of short and extreme climate variability during the Late Cenozoic specific to East Africa in driving evolution. Our results elucidate how the forest biomes of East Africa can appear and disappear under fluctuating environmental conditions and demonstrate how this climate variability might be recognized on the biosphere level. KW - Dynamic vegetation models KW - Palaeovegetation KW - Evolution KW - Late Cenozoic KW - East Africa KW - Climate change Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2016.04.007 SN - 0031-0182 SN - 1872-616X VL - 467 SP - 120 EP - 130 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Fuhr, Harald T1 - The rise of the Global South and the rise in carbon emissions JF - Third world quarterly N2 - Jointly with the Global North, the rise of the Global South has come at a high cost to the environment. Driven by its high energy intensity and the use of fossil fuels, the South has contributed a significant portion of global emissions during the last 30 years, and is now contributing some 63% of today's total GHG emissions (including land-use change and forestry). Similar to the Global North, the Global South's emissions are heavily concentrated: India and China alone account for some 60% and the top 10 countries for some 78% of the group's emissions, while some 120 countries account for only 22%. Without highlighting such differences, it makes little sense to use the term 'Global South'. Its members are affected differently, and contribute differently to global climate change. They neither share a common view, nor do they pursue joint interests when it comes to international climate negotiations. Instead, they are organised into more than a dozen subgroups of the global climate regime. There is no single climate strategy for the Global South, and climate action will differ enormously from country to country. Furthermore, just and equitable transitions may be particularly challenging for some countries. KW - Climate change KW - international development KW - energy KW - environmental policy KW - Global South KW - transition policy Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2021.1954901 SN - 0143-6597 SN - 1360-2241 VL - 42 IS - 11 SP - 2724 EP - 2746 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - THES A1 - Füssel, Hans-Martin T1 - Impacts analysis for inverse integrated assessments of climate change N2 - Diese Dissertation beschreibt die Entwicklung und Anwendung des Klimawirkungsmoduls des ICLIPS-Modells, eines integrierten Modells des Klimawandels ('Integrated Assessment'-Modell). Vorangestellt ist eine Diskussion des gesellschaftspolitischen Kontexts, in dem modellbasiertes 'Integrated Assessment' stattfindet, aus der wichtige Anforderungen an die Spezifikation des Klimawirkungsmoduls abgeleitet werden. Das 'Integrated Assessment' des Klimawandels umfasst eine weiten Bereich von Aktivitäten zur wissenschaftsbasierten Unterstützung klimapolitischer Entscheidungen. Hierbei wird eine Vielzahl von Ansätzen verfolgt, um politikrelevante Informationen über die erwarteten Auswirkungen des Klimawandels zu berücksichtigen. Wichtige Herausforderungen in diesem Bereich sind die große Bandbreite der relevanten räumlichen und zeitlichen Skalen, die multifaktorielle Verursachung vieler 'Klimafolgen', erhebliche wissenschaftliche Unsicherheiten sowie die Mehrdeutigkeit unvermeidlicher Werturteile. Die Entwicklung eines hierarchischen Konzeptmodells erlaubt die Strukturierung der verschiedenen Ansätze sowie die Darstellung eines mehrstufigen Entwicklungsprozesses, der sich in der Praxis und der zu Grunde liegenden Theorie von Studien zur Vulnerabilität hinsichtlich des Klimawandels wiederspiegelt. 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle des Klimawandels sind wissenschaftliche Werkzeuge, welche eine vereinfachte Beschreibung des gekoppelten Mensch-Klima-Systems enthalten. Die wichtigsten entscheidungstheoretischen Ansätze im Bereich des modellbasierten 'Integrated Assessment' werden im Hinblick auf ihre Fähigkeit zur adäquaten Darstellung klimapolitischer Entscheidungsprobleme bewertet. Dabei stellt der 'Leitplankenansatz' eine 'inverse' Herangehensweise zur Unterstützung klimapolitischer Entscheidungen dar, bei der versucht wird, die Gesamtheit der klimapolitischen Strategien zu bestimmen, die mit einer Reihe von zuvor normativ bestimmten Mindestkriterien (den sogenannten 'Leitplanken') verträglich sind. Dieser Ansatz verbindet bis zu einem gewissen Grad die wissenschaftliche Strenge und Objektivität simulationsbasierter Ansätze mit der Fähigkeit von Optimierungsansätzen, die Gesamtheit aller Entscheidungsoptionen zu berücksichtigen. Das ICLIPS-Modell ist das erste 'Integrated Assessment'-Modell des Klimawandels, welches den Leitplankenansatz implementiert. Die Darstellung von Klimafolgen ist eine wichtige Herausforderung für 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle des Klimawandels. Eine Betrachtung bestehender 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle offenbart große Unterschiede in der Berücksichtigung verschiedener vom Klimawandel betroffenen Sektoren, in der Wahl des bzw. der Indikatoren zur Darstellung von Klimafolgen, in der Berücksichtigung nicht-klimatischer Entwicklungen einschließlich gezielter Anpassungsmaßnahmen an den Klimawandel, in der Behandlung von Unsicherheiten und in der Berücksichtigung von 'singulären' Ereignissen. 'Integrated Assessment'-Modelle, die auf einem Inversansatz beruhen, stellen besondere Anforderungen an die Darstellung von Klimafolgen. Einerseits muss der Detaillierungsgrad hinreichend sein, um Leitplanken für Klimafolgen sinnvoll definieren zu können; andererseits muss die Darstellung effizient genug sein, um die Gesamtheit der möglichen klimapolitischen Strategien erkunden zu können. Großräumige Singularitäten können häufig durch vereinfachte dynamische Modelle abgebildet werden. Diese Methode ist jedoch weniger geeignet für reguläre Klimafolgen, bei denen die Bestimmung relevanter Ergebnisse in der Regel die Berücksichtigung der Heterogenität von klimatischen, naturräumlichen und sozialen Faktoren auf der lokalen oder regionalen Ebene erfordert. Klimawirkungsfunktionen stellen sich als die geeignetste Darstellung regulärer Klimafolgen im ICLIPS-Modell heraus. Eine Klimawirkungsfunktion beschreibt in aggregierter Form die Reaktion eines klimasensitiven Systems, wie sie von einem geographisch expliziten Klimawirkungsmodell für eine repräsentative Teilmenge möglicher zukünftiger Entwicklungen simuliert wurde. Die in dieser Arbeit vorgestellten Klimawirkungsfunktionen nutzen die globale Mitteltemperatur sowie die atmosphärische CO2-Konzentration als Prädiktoren für global und regional aggregierte Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf natürliche Ökosysteme, die landwirtschaftliche Produktion und die Wasserverfügbarkeit. Die Anwendung einer 'Musterskalierungstechnik' ermöglicht hierbei die Berücksichtigung der regionalen und saisonalen Muster des Klimaänderungssignals aus allgemeinen Zirkulationsmodellen, ohne die Effizienz der dynamischen Modellkomponenten zu beeinträchtigen. Bemühungen zur quantitativen Abschätzung zukünftiger Klimafolgen sehen sich bei der Wahl geeigneter Indikatoren in der Regel einem Zielkonflikt zwischen der Relevanz eines Indikators für Entscheidungsträger und der Zuverlässigkeit, mit der dieser bestimmt werden kann, gegenüber. Eine Reihe von nichtmonetären Indikatoren zur aggregierten Darstellung von Klimafolgen in Klimawirkungsfunktionen wird präsentiert, welche eine Balance zwischen diesen beiden Zielen anstreben und gleichzeitig die Beschränkungen berücksichtigen, die sich aus anderen Komponenten des ICLIPS-Modells ergeben. Klimawirkungsfunktionen werden durch verschiedene Typen von Diagrammen visualisiert, welche jeweils unterschiedliche Perspektiven auf die Ergebnismenge der Klimawirkungssimulationen erlauben. Die schiere Anzahl von Klimawirkungsfunktionen verhindert ihre umfassende Darstellung in dieser Arbeit. Ausgewählte Ergebnisse zu Veränderungen in der räumlichen Ausdehnung von Biomen, im landwirtschaftlichen Potential verschiedener Länder und in der Wasserverfügbarkeit in mehreren großen Einzugsgebieten werden diskutiert. Die Gesamtheit der Klimawirkungsfunktionen wird zugänglich gemacht durch das 'ICLIPS Impacts Tool', eine graphische Benutzeroberfläche, die einen bequemen Zugriff auf über 100.000 Klimawirkungsdiagramme ermöglicht. Die technischen Aspekte der Software sowie die zugehörige Datenbasis wird beschrieben. Die wichtigste Anwendung von Klimawirkungsfunktionen ist im 'Inversmodus', wo sie genutzt werden, um Leitplanken zur Begrenzung von Klimafolgen in gleichzeitige Randbedingungen für Variablen aus dem optimierenden ICLIPS-Klima-Weltwirtschafts-Modell zu übersetzen. Diese Übersetzung wird ermöglicht durch Algorithmen zur Bestimmung von Mengen erreichbarer Klimazustände ('reachable climate domains') sowie zur parametrisierten Approximation zulässiger Klimafenster ('admissible climate windows'), die aus Klimawirkungsfunktionen abgeleitet werden. Der umfassende Bestand an Klimawirkungsfunktionen zusammen mit diesen Algorithmen ermöglicht es dem integrierten ICLIPS-Modell, in flexibler Weise diejenigen klimapolitischen Strategien zu bestimmen, welche bestimmte in biophysikalischen Einheiten ausgedrückte Begrenzungen von Klimafolgen explizit berücksichtigen. Diese Möglichkeit bietet kein anderes intertemporal optimierendes 'Integrated Assessment'-Modell. Eine Leitplankenanalyse mit dem integrierten ICLIPS-Modell unter Anwendung ausgewählter Klimawirkungsfunktionen für Veränderungen natürlicher Ökosysteme wird beschrieben. In dieser Analyse werden so genannte 'notwendige Emissionskorridore' berechnet, die vorgegebene Beschränkungen hinsichtlich der maximal zulässigen globalen Vegetationsveränderungen und der regionalen Klimaschutzkosten berücksichtigen. Dies geschieht sowohl für eine 'Standardkombination' der drei gewählten Kriterien als auch für deren systematische Variation. Eine abschließende Diskussion aktueller Entwicklungen in der 'Integrated Assessment'-Modellierung stellt diese Arbeit mit anderen einschlägigen Bemühungen in Beziehung. N2 - This thesis describes the development and application of the impacts module of the ICLIPS model, a global integrated assessment model of climate change. The presentation of the technical aspects of this model component is preceded by a discussion of the sociopolitical context for model-based integrated assessments, which defines important requirements for the specification of the model. Integrated assessment of climate change comprises a broad range of scientific efforts to support the decision-making about objectives and measures for climate policy, whereby many different approaches have been followed to provide policy-relevant information about climate impacts. Major challenges in this context are the large diversity of the relevant spatial and temporal scales, the multifactorial causation of many climate impacts', considerable scientific uncertainties, and the ambiguity associated with unavoidable normative evaluations. A hierarchical framework is presented for structuring climate impact assessments that reflects the evolution of their practice and of the underlying theory. Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are scientific tools that contain simplified representations of the relevant components of the coupled society-climate system. The major decision-analytical frameworks for IAMs are evaluated according to their ability to address important aspects of the pertinent social decision problem. The guardrail approach is presented as an inverse' framework for climate change decision support, which aims to identify the whole set of policy strategies that are compatible with a set of normatively specified constraints (guardrails'). This approach combines, to a certain degree, the scientific rigour and objectivity typical of predictive approaches with the ability to consider virtually all decision options that is at the core of optimization approaches. The ICLIPS model is described as the first IAM that implements the guardrail approach. The representation of climate impacts is a key concern in any IAM. A review of existing IAMs reveals large differences in the coverage of impact sectors, in the choice of the impact numeraire(s), in the consideration of non-climatic developments, including purposeful adaptation, in the handling of uncertainty, and in the inclusion of singular events. IAMs based on an inverse approach impose specific requirements to the representation of climate impacts. This representation needs to combine a level of detail and reliability that is sufficient for the specification of impact guardrails with the conciseness and efficiency that allows for an exploration of the complete domain of plausible climate protection strategies. Large-scale singular events can often be represented by dynamic reduced-form models. This approach, however, is less appropriate for regular impacts where the determination of policy-relevant results generally needs to consider the heterogeneity of climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors at the local or regional scale. Climate impact response functions (CIRFs) are identified as the most suitable reduced-form representation of regular climate impacts in the ICLIPS model. A CIRF depicts the aggregated response of a climate-sensitive system or sector as simulated by a spatially explicit sectoral impact model for a representative subset of plausible futures. In the CIRFs presented here, global mean temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration are used as predictors for global and regional impacts on natural vegetation, agricultural crop production, and water availability. Application of a pattern scaling technique makes it possible to consider the regional and seasonal patterns in the climate anomalies simulated by several general circulation models while ensuring the efficiency of the dynamic model components. Efforts to provide quantitative estimates of future climate impacts generally face a trade-off between the relevance of an indicator for stakeholders and the exactness with which it can be determined. A number of non-monetary aggregated impact indicators for the CIRFs is presented, which aim to strike the balance between these two conflicting goals while taking into account additional constraints of the ICLIPS modelling framework. Various types of impact diagrams are used for the visualization of CIRFs, each of which provides a different perspective on the impact result space. The sheer number of CIRFs computed for the ICLIPS model precludes their comprehensive presentation in this thesis. Selected results referring to changes in the distribution of biomes in different biogeographical regions, in the agricultural potential of various countries, and in the water availability in selected major catchments are discussed. The full set of CIRFs is accessible via the ICLIPS Impacts Tool, a graphical user interface that provides convenient access to more than 100,000 impact diagrams developed for the ICLIPS model. The technical aspects of the software are described as well as the accompanying database of CIRFs. The most important application of CIRFs is in inverse' mode, where they are used to translate impact guardrails into simultaneous constraints for variables from the optimizing ICLIPS climate-economy model. This translation is facilitated by algorithms for the computation of reachable climate domains and for the parameterized approximation of admissible climate windows derived from CIRFs. The comprehensive set of CIRFs, together with these algorithms, enables the ICLIPS model to flexibly explore sets of climate policy strategies that explicitly comply with impact guardrails specified in biophysical units. This feature is not found in any other intertemporally optimizing IAM. A guardrail analysis with the integrated ICLIPS model is described that applies selected CIRFs for ecosystem changes. So-called necessary carbon emission corridors' are determined for a default choice of normative constraints that limit global vegetation impacts as well as regional mitigation costs, and for systematic variations of these constraints. A brief discussion of recent developments in integrated assessment modelling of climate change connects the work presented here with related efforts. KW - Klimawandel KW - Klimafolgen KW - Integrierte Bewertung KW - Leitplankenansatz KW - Fensteransatz KW - Inversanalyse KW - Klimawirkungsfunktionen KW - Musterskalierung KW - ICLIPS KW - Climate change KW - climate impacts KW - integrated assessment KW - guardrail approach KW - tolerable windows approach KW - inverse analysis KW - climate impact response func Y1 - 2003 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-0001089 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Geyer, Juliane A1 - Strixner, Lena A1 - Kreft, Stefan A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Ibisch, Pierre L. T1 - Adapting conservation to climate change: a case study on feasibility and implementation in Brandenburg, Germany JF - Regional environmental change N2 - Conservation actions need to account for global climate change and adapt to it. The body of the literature on adaptation options is growing rapidly, but their feasibility and current state of implementation are rarely assessed. We discussed the practicability of adaptation options with conservation managers analysing three fields of action: reducing the vulnerability of conservation management, reducing the vulnerability of conservation targets (i.e. biodiversity) and climate change mitigation. For all options, feasibility, current state of implementation and existing obstacles to implementation were analysed, using the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany, as a case study. Practitioners considered a large number of options useful, most of which have already been implemented at least in part. Those options considered broadly implemented resemble mainly conventional measures of conservation without direct relation to climate change. Managers are facing several obstacles for adapting to climate change, including political reluctance to change, financial and staff shortages in conservation administrations and conflictive EU funding schemes in agriculture. A certain reluctance to act, due to the high degree of uncertainty with regard to climate change scenarios and impacts, is widespread. A lack of knowledge of appropriate methods such as adaptive management often inhibits the implementation of adaptation options in the field of planning and management. Based on the findings for Brandenburg, we generally conclude that it is necessary to focus in particular on options that help to reduce vulnerability of conservation management itself, i.e. those that enhance management effectiveness. For instance, adaptive and proactive risk management can be applied as a no-regrets option, independently from specific climate change scenarios or impacts, strengthening action under uncertainty. KW - Climate change KW - Adaptation options KW - Nature conservation management KW - Vulnerability Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0609-9 SN - 1436-3798 SN - 1436-378X VL - 15 IS - 1 SP - 139 EP - 153 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Groeneveld, Jürgen A1 - Johst, Karin A1 - Kawaguchi, So A1 - Meyer, Bettina A1 - Teschke, Mathias A1 - Grimm, Volker T1 - How biological clocks and changing environmental conditions determine local population growth and species distribution in Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba): a conceptual model JF - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog N2 - The Southern Ocean ecosystem is characterized by extreme seasonal changes in environmental factors such as day length, sea ice extent and food availability. The key species Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) has evolved metabolic and behavioural seasonal rhythms to cope with these seasonal changes. We investigate the switch between a physiological less active and active period for adult krill, a rhythm which seems to be controlled by internal biological clocks. These biological clocks can be synchronized by environmental triggers such as day length and food availability. They have evolved for particular environmental regimes to synchronize predictable seasonal environmental changes with important life cycle functions of the species. In a changing environment the time when krill is metabolically active and the time of peak food availability may not overlap if krill's seasonal activity is solely determined by photoperiod (day length). This is especially true for the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean where the spatio-temporal ice cover dynamics are changing substantially with rising average temperatures. We developed an individual-based model for krill to explore the impact of photoperiod and food availability on the growth and demographics of krill. We simulated dynamics of local krill populations (with no movement of krill assumed) along a south-north gradient for different triggers of metabolic activity and different levels of food availability below the ice. We also observed the fate of larval krill which cannot switch to low metabolism and therefore are likely to overwinter under ice. Krill could only occupy the southern end of the gradient, where algae bloom only lasts for a short time, when alternative food supply under the ice was high and metabolic activity was triggered by photoperiod. The northern distribution was limited by lack of overwintering habitat for krill larvae due to short duration of sea ice cover even for high food content under the ice. The variability of the krill's length-frequency distributions varied for different triggers of metabolic activity, but did not depend on the sea ice extent. Our findings suggest a southward shift of krill populations due to reduction in the spatial sea ice extent, which is consistent with field observations. Overall, our results highlight the importance of the explicit consideration of spatio-temporal sea ice dynamics especially for larval krill together with temporal synchronization through internal clocks, triggered by environmental factors (photoperiod and food) in adult krill for the population modelling of krill. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Dynamic energy budget theory KW - Individual based model KW - Southern Ocean KW - Sea ice KW - Climate change KW - Marine ecology Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.02.009 SN - 0304-3800 SN - 1872-7026 VL - 303 SP - 78 EP - 86 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER -