TY  - JOUR
A1  - Luderer, Gunnar
A1  - Madeddu, Silvia
A1  - Merfort, Leon
A1  - Ueckerdt, Falko
A1  - Pehl, Michaja
A1  - Pietzcker, Robert C.
A1  - Rottoli, Marianna
A1  - Schreyer, Felix
A1  - Bauer, Nico
A1  - Baumstark, Lavinia
A1  - Bertram, Christoph
A1  - Dirnaichner, Alois
A1  - Humpenöder, Florian
A1  - Levesque, Antoine
A1  - Popp, Alexander
A1  - Rodrigues, Renato
A1  - Strefler, Jessica
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
T1  - Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios
JF  - Nature energy
N2  - Cost degression in photovoltaics, wind-power and battery storage has been faster than previously anticipated. In the future, climate policy to limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C will make carbon-based fuels increasingly scarce and expensive. Here we show that further progress in solar- and wind-power technology along with carbon pricing to reach the Paris Climate targets could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. In combination with demand-side innovation, for instance in e-mobility and heat pumps, this is likely to induce a fundamental transformation of energy systems towards a dominance of electricity-based end uses. In a 1.5 °C scenario with limited availability of bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could account for 66% of final energy by mid-century, three times the current levels and substantially higher than in previous climate policy scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The lower production of bioenergy in our high-electrification scenarios markedly reduces energy-related land and water requirements.
KW  - climate-change mitigation
KW  - energy modelling
KW  - renewable energy
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00937-z
SN  - 2058-7546
N1  - Corrigendum: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01000-1
VL  - 7
IS  - 1
SP  - 32
EP  - 42
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Soergel, Bjoern
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
A1  - Weindl, Isabelle
A1  - Rauner, Sebastian
A1  - Dirnaichner, Alois
A1  - Ruhe, Constantin
A1  - Hofmann, Matthias
A1  - Bauer, Nico
A1  - Bertram, Christoph
A1  - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
A1  - Leimbach, Marian
A1  - Leininger, Julia
A1  - Levesque, Antoine
A1  - Luderer, Gunnar
A1  - Pehl, Michaja
A1  - Wingens, Christopher
A1  - Baumstark, Lavinia
A1  - Beier, Felicitas
A1  - Dietrich, Jan Philipp
A1  - Humpenöder, Florian
A1  - von Jeetze, Patrick
A1  - Klein, David
A1  - Koch, Johannes
A1  - Pietzcker, Robert C.
A1  - Strefler, Jessica
A1  - Lotze-Campen, Hermann
A1  - Popp, Alexander
T1  - A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda
JF  - Nature climate change
N2  - Ambitious climate policies, as well as economic development, education, technological progress and less resource-intensive lifestyles, are crucial elements for progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, using an integrated modelling framework covering 56 indicators or proxies across all 17 SDGs, we show that they are insufficient to reach the targets. An additional sustainable development package, including international climate finance, progressive redistribution of carbon pricing revenues, sufficient and healthy nutrition and improved access to modern energy, enables a more comprehensive sustainable development pathway. We quantify climate and SDG outcomes, showing that these interventions substantially boost progress towards many aspects of the UN Agenda 2030 and simultaneously facilitate reaching ambitious climate targets. Nonetheless, several important gaps remain; for example, with respect to the eradication of extreme poverty (180 million people remaining in 2030). These gaps can be closed by 2050 for many SDGs while also respecting the 1.5 °C target and several other planetary boundaries.
KW  - climate-change mitigation
KW  - climate-change policy
KW  - socioeconomic scenarios
KW  - sustainability
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01098-3
SN  - 1758-678X
SN  - 1758-6798
VL  - 11
IS  - 8
SP  - 656
EP  - 664
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Strefler, Jessica
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
A1  - Bauer, Nico
A1  - Luderer, Gunnar
A1  - Pietzcker, Robert C.
A1  - Giannousakis, Anastasis
A1  - Edenhofer, Ottmar
T1  - Alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal
JF  - Nature communications
N2  - The large majority of climate change mitigation scenarios that hold warming below 2 °C show high deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), resulting in a peak-and-decline behavior in global temperature. This is driven by the assumption of an exponentially increasing carbon price trajectory which is perceived to be economically optimal for meeting a carbon budget. However, this optimality relies on the assumption that a finite carbon budget associated with a temperature target is filled up steadily over time. The availability of net carbon removals invalidates this assumption and therefore a different carbon price trajectory should be chosen. We show how the optimal carbon price path for remaining well below 2 °C limits CDR demand and analyze requirements for constructing alternatives, which may be easier to implement in reality. We show that warming can be held at well below 2 °C at much lower long-term economic effort and lower CDR deployment and therefore lower risks if carbon prices are high enough in the beginning to ensure target compliance, but increase at a lower rate after carbon neutrality has been reached.
KW  - climate-change mitigation
KW  - climate sciences
KW  - environmental sciences
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22211-2
SN  - 2041-1723
VL  - 12
IS  - 1
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
CY  - London
ER  -