TY - GEN A1 - Schmoll, Tim A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Winkel, W. A1 - Lubjuhn, Thomas T1 - Female extra-pair mating, fitness and genetic diversity: Expression in socially monogamous Coal Tits T2 - Journal of ornithology Y1 - 2006 SN - 0021-8375 VL - 147 SP - 248 EP - 248 PB - Elsevier CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pagel, Jörn A1 - Anderson, Barbara J. A1 - Cramer, Wolfgang A1 - Fox, Richard A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Roy, David B. A1 - Thomas, Chris D. A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin T1 - Quantifying range-wide variation in population trends from local abundance surveys and widespread opportunistic occurrence records JF - Methods in ecology and evolution : an official journal of the British Ecological Society N2 - 2. We present a hierarchical model that integrates observations from multiple sources to estimate spatio-temporal abundance trends. The model links annual population densities on a spatial grid to both long-term count data and to opportunistic occurrence records from a citizen science programme. Specific observation models for both data types explicitly account for differences in data structure and quality. 3. We test this novel method in a virtual study with simulated data and apply it to the estimation of abundance dynamics across the range of a butterfly species (Pyronia tithonus) in Great Britain between 1985 and 2004. The application to simulated and real data demonstrates how the hierarchical model structure accommodates various sources of uncertainty which occur at different stages of the link between observational data and the modelled abundance, thereby it accounts for these uncertainties in the inference of abundance variations. 4. We show that by using hierarchical observation models that integrate different types of commonly available data sources, we can improve the estimates of variation in species abundances across space and time. This will improve our ability to detect regional trends and can also enhance the empirical basis for understanding range dynamics. KW - atlas data KW - Bayesian statistics KW - biogeography KW - butterflies KW - citizen science programme KW - conservation biology KW - count data KW - macroecology KW - state-space model Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12221 SN - 2041-210X SN - 2041-2096 VL - 5 IS - 8 SP - 751 EP - 760 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Svenning, Jens-Christian A1 - Gravel, Dominique A1 - Holt, Robert D. A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Thuiller, Wilfried A1 - Muenkemueller, Tamara A1 - Schiffers, Katja H. A1 - Dullinger, Stefan A1 - Edwards, Thomas C. A1 - Hickler, Thomas A1 - Higgins, Steven I. A1 - Nabel, Julia E. M. S. A1 - Pagel, Jörn A1 - Normand, Signe T1 - The influence of interspecific interactions on species range expansion rates JF - Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00574.x SN - 0906-7590 SN - 1600-0587 VL - 37 IS - 12 SP - 1198 EP - 1209 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thuiller, Wilfried A1 - Muenkemueller, Tamara A1 - Schiffers, Katja H. A1 - Georges, Damien A1 - Dullinger, Stefan A1 - Eckhart, Vincent M. A1 - Edwards, Thomas C. A1 - Gravel, Dominique A1 - Kunstler, Georges A1 - Merow, Cory A1 - Moore, Kara A1 - Piedallu, Christian A1 - Vissault, Steve A1 - Zimmermann, Niklaus E. A1 - Zurell, Damaris A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin T1 - Does probability of occurrence relate to population dynamics? JF - Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum N2 - Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with P-occ, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with P-occ. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence probability are those with high densities but slow intrinsic population growth rates. The uncertain relationships between demography and occurrence probability suggests caution when linking species distribution and demographic models. Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.00836 SN - 0906-7590 SN - 1600-0587 VL - 37 IS - 12 SP - 1155 EP - 1166 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Albert, Cécile H. A1 - Grassein, Fabrice A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Vieilledent, Ghislain A1 - Violle, Cyrille T1 - When and how should intraspecific variability be considered in trait-based plant ecology? JF - Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics N2 - Trait-based studies have become extremely common in plant ecology. Trait-based approaches often rely on the tacit assumption that intraspecific trait variability (ITV) is negligible compared to interspecific variability, so that species can be characterized by mean trait values. Yet, numerous recent studies have challenged this assumption by showing that ITV significantly affects various ecological processes. Accounting for ITV may thus strengthen trait-based approaches, but measuring trait values on a large number of individuals per species and site is not feasible. Therefore, it is important and timely to synthesize existing knowledge on ITV in order to (1) decide critically when ITV should be considered, and (2) establish methods for incorporating this variability. Here we propose a practical set of rules to identify circumstances under which ITV should be accounted for. We formulate a spatial trait variance partitioning hypothesis to highlight the spatial scales at which ITV cannot be ignored in ecological studies. We then refine a set of four consecutive questions on the research question, the spatial scale, the sampling design, and the type of studied traits, to determine case-by-case if a given study should quantify ITV and test its effects. We review methods for quantifying ITV and develop a step-by-step guideline to design and interpret simulation studies that test for the importance of ITV. Even in the absence of quantitative knowledge on ITV, its effects can be assessed by varying trait values within species within realistic bounds around the known mean values. We finish with a discussion of future requirements to further incorporate ITV within trait-based approaches. This paper thus delineates a general framework to account for ITV and suggests a direction towards a more quantitative trait-based ecology. KW - Comparative ecology KW - Functional ecology KW - Genetic variability KW - Intraspecific functional variability KW - Phenotypic plasticity KW - Plant functional hairs KW - Within-species variability Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ppees.2011.04.003 SN - 1433-8319 VL - 13 IS - 3 SP - 217 EP - 225 PB - Elsevier CY - Jena ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Buchmann, Carsten M. A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - An allometric model of home range formation explains the structuring of animal communities exploiting heterogeneous resources JF - Oikos N2 - Understanding and predicting the composition and spatial structure of communities is a central challenge in ecology. An important structural property of animal communities is the distribution of individual home ranges. Home range formation is controlled by resource heterogeneity, the physiology and behaviour of individual animals, and their intra- and interspecific interactions. However, a quantitative mechanistic understanding of how home range formation influences community composition is still lacking. To explore the link between home range formation and community composition in heterogeneous landscapes we combine allometric relationships for physiological properties with an algorithm that selects optimal home ranges given locomotion costs, resource depletion and competition in a spatially-explicit individual-based modelling framework. From a spatial distribution of resources and an input distribution of animal body mass, our model predicts the size and location of individual home ranges as well as the individual size distribution (ISD) in an animal community. For a broad range of body mass input distributions, including empirical body mass distributions of North American and Australian mammals, our model predictions agree with independent data on the body mass scaling of home range size and individual abundance in terrestrial mammals. Model predictions are also robust against variation in habitat productivity and landscape heterogeneity. The combination of allometric relationships for locomotion costs and resource needs with resource competition in an optimal foraging framework enables us to scale from individual properties to the structure of animal communities in heterogeneous landscapes. The proposed spatially-explicit modelling concept not only allows for detailed investigation of landscape effects on animal communities, but also provides novel insights into the mechanisms by which resource competition in space shapes animal communities. Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18556.x SN - 0030-1299 VL - 120 IS - 1 SP - 106 EP - 118 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lachmuth, Susanne A1 - Durka, Walter A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin T1 - Differentiation of reproductive and competitive ability in the invaded range of Senecio inaequidens the role of genetic Allee effects, adaptive and nonadaptive evolution JF - New phytologist : international journal of plant science N2 - Genetic differentiation in the competitive and reproductive ability of invading populations can result from genetic Allee effects or r/K selection at the local or range-wide scale. However, the neutral relatedness of populations may either mask or falsely suggest adaptation and genetic Allee effects. In a common-garden experiment, we investigated the competitive and reproductive ability of invasive Senecio inaequidens populations that vary in neutral genetic diversity, population age and field vegetation cover. To account for population relatedness, we analysed the experimental results with 'animal models' adopted from quantitative genetics. Consistent with adaptive r/K differentiation at local scales, we found that genotypes from low-competition environments invest more in reproduction and are more sensitive to competition. By contrast, apparent effects of large-scale r/K differentiation and apparent genetic Allee effects can largely be explained by neutral population relatedness. Invading populations should not be treated as homogeneous groups, as they may adapt quickly to small-scale environmental variation in the invaded range. Furthermore, neutral population differentiation may strongly influence invasion dynamics and should be accounted for in analyses of common-garden experiments. KW - animal models KW - biological invasions KW - genetic Allee effects KW - interspecific competition KW - life history evolution KW - nonadaptive evolution KW - r and K selection KW - reproduction Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2011.03808.x SN - 0028-646X VL - 192 IS - 2 SP - 529 EP - 541 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sarmento, Juliano Sarmento A1 - Bond, William J. A1 - Midgley, Guy F. A1 - Rebelo, Anthony G. A1 - Thuiller, Wilfried A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin T1 - Effects of harvesting flowers from shrubs on the persistence and abundance of wild shrub populations at multiple spatial extents JF - Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology N2 - Wildflower harvesting is an economically important activity of which the ecological effects are poorly understood. We assessed how harvesting of flowers affects shrub persistence and abundance at multiple spatial extents. To this end, we built a process-based model to examine the mean persistence and abundance of wild shrubs whose flowers are subject to harvest (serotinous Proteaceae in the South African Cape Floristic Region). First, we conducted a general sensitivity analysis of how harvesting affects persistence and abundance at nested spatial extents. For most spatial extents and combinations of demographic parameters, persistence and abundance of flowering shrubs decreased abruptly once harvesting rate exceeded a certain threshold. At larger extents, metapopulations supported higher harvesting rates before their persistence and abundance decreased, but persistence and abundance also decreased more abruptly due to harvesting than at smaller extents. This threshold rate of harvest varied with species' dispersal ability, maximum reproductive rate, adult mortality, probability of extirpation or local extinction, strength of Allee effects, and carrying capacity. Moreover, spatial extent interacted with Allee effects and probability of extirpation because both these demographic properties affected the response of local populations to harvesting more strongly than they affected the response of metapopulations. Subsequently, we simulated the effects of harvesting on three Cape Floristic Region Proteaceae species and found that these species reacted differently to harvesting, but their persistence and abundance decreased at low rates of harvest. Our estimates of harvesting rates at maximum sustainable yield differed from those of previous investigations, perhaps because researchers used different estimates of demographic parameters, models of population dynamics, and spatial extent than we did. Good demographic knowledge and careful identification of the spatial extent of interest increases confidence in assessments and monitoring of the effects of harvesting. Our general sensitivity analysis improved understanding of harvesting effects on metapopulation dynamics and allowed qualitative assessment of the probability of extirpation of poorly studied species. KW - Allee effects KW - metapopulation dynamics KW - process-based models KW - serotinous Proteaceae KW - South African Cape Floristic Region KW - spatial scales KW - threshold behavior Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01628.x SN - 0888-8892 VL - 25 IS - 1 SP - 73 EP - 84 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Horvitz, Nir A1 - He, Yanping A1 - Kuparinen, Anna A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Katul, Gabriel G. T1 - Spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in future environments T2 - Ecology letters N2 - P>Despite ample research, understanding plant spread and predicting their ability to track projected climate changes remain a formidable challenge to be confronted. We modelled the spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in current and future (c. 2060) conditions, accounting for variation in 10 key dispersal, demographic and environmental factors affecting population spread. Predicted spread rates vary substantially among 12 study species, primarily due to inter-specific variation in maturation age, fecundity and seed terminal velocity. Future spread is predicted to be faster if atmospheric CO2 enrichment would increase fecundity and advance maturation, irrespective of the projected changes in mean surface windspeed. Yet, for only a few species, predicted wind-driven spread will match future climate changes, conditioned on seed abscission occurring only in strong winds and environmental conditions favouring high survival of the farthest-dispersed seeds. Because such conditions are unlikely, North American wind-dispersed trees are expected to lag behind the projected climate range shift. KW - Climate change KW - demography KW - dispersal KW - fat-tailed dispersal kernels KW - forecasting KW - forests KW - invasion by extremes KW - long-distance dispersal KW - mechanistic models KW - plant migration KW - population spread KW - range expansion KW - survival KW - wind dispersal Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01573.x SN - 1461-023X VL - 14 IS - 3 SP - 211 EP - 219 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schleicher, Jana A1 - Meyer, Katrin M. A1 - Wiegand, Kerstin A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Ward, David T1 - Disentangling facilitation and seed dispersal from environmental heterogeneity as mechanisms generating associations between savanna plants JF - Journal of vegetation science N2 - Question: How can we disentangle facilitation and seed dispersal from environmental heterogeneity as mechanisms causing spatial associations of plant species? Location: Semi-arid savanna in the Kimberley Thorn Bushveld, South Africa. Methods: We developed a two-step protocol for the statistical differentiation of association-promoting mechanisms in plants based on the Acacia erioloba-Grewia flava association. Individuals of the savanna shrub G. flava and the tree A. erioloba were mapped on four study plots. Disentangling the mechanism causing the association of G. flava and A. erioloba involved tests of three spatial and one non-spatial null model. The spatial null models include homogeneous and heterogeneous Poisson processes for spatial randomness based on the bivariate spatial point patterns of the four plots. With the non-spatial analysis, we determined the relationship between the canopy diameter of A. erioloba trees and presence or absence of G. flava shrubs in the tree understorey to find whether shrub presence requires a minimum tree canopy diameter. Results: We first showed a significant positive spatial association of the two species. Thereafter, the non-spatial analysis supported an exclusion of environmental heterogeneity as the sole cause of this positive association. We found a minimum tree size under which no G. flava shrubs occurred. Conclusions: Our two-step analysis showed that it is unlikely that heterogeneous environmental conditions caused the spatial association of A. erioloba and G. flava. Instead, this association may have been caused by seed dispersal and/or facilitation (e.g. caused by hydraulic lift and/or nitrogen fixation by the host tree). KW - Acacia erioloba KW - Grewia flava KW - Plant interactions KW - Spatial association KW - Wiegand-Moloney O-ring statistics Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1654-1103.2011.01310.x SN - 1100-9233 VL - 22 IS - 6 SP - 1038 EP - 1048 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pagel, Jörn A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin T1 - Forecasting species ranges by statistical estimation of ecological niches and spatial population dynamics JF - Global ecology and biogeography : a journal of macroecology N2 - Aim The study and prediction of speciesenvironment relationships is currently mainly based on species distribution models. These purely correlative models neglect spatial population dynamics and assume that species distributions are in equilibrium with their environment. This causes biased estimates of species niches and handicaps forecasts of range dynamics under environmental change. Here we aim to develop an approach that statistically estimates process-based models of range dynamics from data on species distributions and permits a more comprehensive quantification of forecast uncertainties. Innovation We present an approach for the statistical estimation of process-based dynamic range models (DRMs) that integrate Hutchinson's niche concept with spatial population dynamics. In a hierarchical Bayesian framework the environmental response of demographic rates, local population dynamics and dispersal are estimated conditional upon each other while accounting for various sources of uncertainty. The method thus: (1) jointly infers species niches and spatiotemporal population dynamics from occurrence and abundance data, and (2) provides fully probabilistic forecasts of future range dynamics under environmental change. In a simulation study, we investigate the performance of DRMs for a variety of scenarios that differ in both ecological dynamics and the data used for model estimation. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of considering dynamic aspects in the collection and analysis of biodiversity data. In combination with informative data, the presented framework has the potential to markedly improve the quantification of ecological niches, the process-based understanding of range dynamics and the forecasting of species responses to environmental change. It thereby strengthens links between biogeography, population biology and theoretical and applied ecology. KW - Biogeography KW - ecological forecasts KW - global change KW - hierarchical Bayesian statistics KW - long-distance dispersal KW - niche theory KW - process-based model KW - range shifts KW - spatial demography KW - species distribution modelling Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00663.x SN - 1466-822X VL - 21 IS - 2 SP - 293 EP - 304 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Buchmann, Carsten M. A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Movement upscaled - the importance of individual foraging movement for community response to habitat loss JF - Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum N2 - Habitat loss poses a severe threat to biodiversity. While many studies yield valuable information on how specific species cope with such environmental modification, the mechanistic understanding of how interacting species or whole communities are affected by habitat loss is still poor. Individual movement plays a crucial role for the space use characteristics of species, since it determines how individuals perceive and use their heterogeneous environment. At the community level, it is therefore essential to include individual movement and how it is influenced by resource sharing into the investigation of consequences of habitat loss. To elucidate the effects of foraging movement on communities in face of habitat loss, we here apply a recently published spatially-explicit and individual-based model of home range formation. This approach allows predicting the individual size distribution (ISD) of mammal communities in simulation landscapes that vary in the amount of suitable habitat. We apply three fundamentally different foraging movement approaches (central place forager (CPF), patrolling forager (PF) and body mass dependent nomadic forager (BNF)). Results show that the efficiency of the different foraging strategies depends on body mass, which again affects community structure in face of habitat loss. CPF is only efficient for small animals, and therefore yields steep ISD exponents on which habitat loss has little effect (due to a movement limitation of body mass). PF and particularly BNF are more efficient for larger animals, resulting in less steep ISDs with higher mass maxima, both showing a threshold behaviour with regard to loss of suitable habitat. These findings represent a new way of explaining observed extinction thresholds, and therefore indicate the importance of individual space use characterized by physiology and behaviour, i.e. foraging movement, for communities and their response to habitat loss. Findings also indicate the necessity to incorporate the crucial role of movement into future conservation efforts of terrestrial communities. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.06924.x SN - 0906-7590 VL - 35 IS - 5 SP - 436 EP - 445 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - GEN A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Esler, Karen J. A1 - Slingsby, Jasper A. A1 - Allsopp, Nicky T1 - Fynbos proteaceae as model organisms for biodiversity research and conservation T2 - South African journal of science Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4102/sajs.v108i11/12.1446 SN - 0038-2353 VL - 108 IS - 11-12 SP - 10 EP - 13 PB - Academy of Science of South Africa CY - Lynwood Ridge ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kissling, W. D. A1 - Dormann, Carsten F. A1 - Groeneveld, Juergen A1 - Hickler, Thomas A1 - Kühn, Ingolf A1 - McInerny, Greg J. A1 - Montoya, Jose M. A1 - Römermann, Christine A1 - Schiffers, Katja A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Singer, Alexander A1 - Svenning, Jens-Christian A1 - Zimmermann, Niklaus E. A1 - O'Hara, Robert B. T1 - Towards novel approaches to modelling biotic interactions in multispecies assemblages at large spatial extents JF - Journal of biogeography N2 - Aim Biotic interactions within guilds or across trophic levels have widely been ignored in species distribution models (SDMs). This synthesis outlines the development of species interaction distribution models (SIDMs), which aim to incorporate multispecies interactions at large spatial extents using interaction matrices. Location Local to global. Methods We review recent approaches for extending classical SDMs to incorporate biotic interactions, and identify some methodological and conceptual limitations. To illustrate possible directions for conceptual advancement we explore three principal ways of modelling multispecies interactions using interaction matrices: simple qualitative linkages between species, quantitative interaction coefficients reflecting interaction strengths, and interactions mediated by interaction currencies. We explain methodological advancements for static interaction data and multispecies time series, and outline methods to reduce complexity when modelling multispecies interactions. Results Classical SDMs ignore biotic interactions and recent SDM extensions only include the unidirectional influence of one or a few species. However, novel methods using error matrices in multivariate regression models allow interactions between multiple species to be modelled explicitly with spatial co-occurrence data. If time series are available, multivariate versions of population dynamic models can be applied that account for the effects and relative importance of species interactions and environmental drivers. These methods need to be extended by incorporating the non-stationarity in interaction coefficients across space and time, and are challenged by the limited empirical knowledge on spatio-temporal variation in the existence and strength of species interactions. Model complexity may be reduced by: (1) using prior ecological knowledge to set a subset of interaction coefficients to zero, (2) modelling guilds and functional groups rather than individual species, and (3) modelling interaction currencies and species effect and response traits. Main conclusions There is great potential for developing novel approaches that incorporate multispecies interactions into the projection of species distributions and community structure at large spatial extents. Progress can be made by: (1) developing statistical models with interaction matrices for multispecies co-occurrence datasets across large-scale environmental gradients, (2) testing the potential and limitations of methods for complexity reduction, and (3) sampling and monitoring comprehensive spatio-temporal data on biotic interactions in multispecies communities. KW - Community ecology KW - ecological networks KW - global change KW - guild assembly KW - multidimensional complexity KW - niche theory KW - prediction KW - species distribution model KW - species interactions KW - trait-based community modules Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02663.x SN - 0305-0270 VL - 39 IS - 12 SP - 2163 EP - 2178 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Pagel, Jörn A1 - Sarmento, Juliano Sarmento A1 - Groeneveld, Juergen A1 - Bykova, Olga A1 - O'Hara, Robert B. A1 - Hartig, Florian A1 - Kissling, W. Daniel A1 - Linder, H. Peter A1 - Midgley, Guy F. A1 - Schröder-Esselbach, Boris A1 - Singer, Alexander A1 - Zimmermann, Niklaus E. T1 - How to understand species' niches and range dynamics: a demographic research agenda for biogeography JF - Journal of biogeography N2 - Range dynamics causes mismatches between a species geographical distribution and the set of suitable environments in which population growth is positive (the Hutchinsonian niche). This is because sourcesink population dynamics cause species to occupy unsuitable environments, and because environmental change creates non-equilibrium situations in which species may be absent from suitable environments (due to migration limitation) or present in unsuitable environments that were previously suitable (due to time-delayed extinction). Because correlative species distribution models do not account for these processes, they are likely to produce biased niche estimates and biased forecasts of future range dynamics. Recently developed dynamic range models (DRMs) overcome this problem: they statistically estimate both range dynamics and the underlying environmental response of demographic rates from species distribution data. This process-based statistical approach qualitatively advances biogeographical analyses. Yet, the application of DRMs to a broad range of species and study systems requires substantial research efforts in statistical modelling, empirical data collection and ecological theory. Here we review current and potential contributions of these fields to a demographic understanding of niches and range dynamics. Our review serves to formulate a demographic research agenda that entails: (1) advances in incorporating process-based models of demographic responses and range dynamics into a statistical framework, (2) systematic collection of data on temporal changes in distribution and abundance and on the response of demographic rates to environmental variation, and (3) improved theoretical understanding of the scaling of demographic rates and the dynamics of spatially coupled populations. This demographic research agenda is challenging but necessary for improved comprehension and quantification of niches and range dynamics. It also forms the basis for understanding how niches and range dynamics are shaped by evolutionary dynamics and biotic interactions. Ultimately, the demographic research agenda should lead to deeper integration of biogeography with empirical and theoretical ecology. KW - Biodiversity monitoring KW - climate change KW - ecological forecasts KW - ecological niche modelling KW - ecological theory KW - geographical range shifts KW - global environmental change KW - mechanistic models KW - migration KW - process-based statistics Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2012.02737.x SN - 0305-0270 VL - 39 IS - 12 SP - 2146 EP - 2162 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Nottebrock, Henning A1 - Esler, Karen J. A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin T1 - Effects of intraspecific and community density on the lifetime fecundity of long-lived shrubs JF - Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics N2 - Intra- and interspecific density dependence has profound consequences for plant population and community dynamics. In long-lived plants, however, lifetime patterns and mechanisms of density dependence are difficult to study. Here, we examine effects of intraspecific and community density on the lifetime fecundity of two long-lived shrub species from South African Fynbos: Protea repens (animal-pollinated, hermaphroditic) and Leucadendron rubrum (wind-pollinated, dioecious). Both species are serotinous, retaining seeds in cones until fire kills the mother plant. We measured lifetime fecundity as the product of cone number, proportion of cones that are not damaged by predation and seed set (fertile seeds per intact cone). Intraspecific and community densities were quantified by counting individuals of target species and all Proteaceae in small- and large-scale neighbourhoods (10 m and 50 m radius) around each focal individual. Additionally, we determined the age and size of focal individuals. We found that lifetime fecundity of the wind-pollinated L rubrum is density independent. In contrast, the lifetime fecundity of the animal-pollinated P. repens increases with large-scale intraspecific density and shows a hump-shaped relationship to large-scale community density. Community density has a hump-shaped effect on seed set (probably through partial absence of generalized pollinators at low and competition for pollinators at high densities) and negatively affects cone number per individual. For both species, plant age decreases seed set while increasing lifetime fecundity. The qualitative differences in the density dependence of lifetime fecundity may arise from differences between animal and wind pollination. In particular, interactions with generalized animal pollinators may cause community-level Allee effects with profound consequences for the future dynamics of long-lived plant populations and communities. KW - Competition KW - Community-level Allee effects KW - Facilitation KW - Fitness components KW - Interspecific interactions KW - Plant-animal interactions Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ppees.2013.03.003 SN - 1433-8319 VL - 15 IS - 3 SP - 150 EP - 161 PB - Elsevier CY - Jena ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Buchmann, Carsten M. A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Habitat loss and fragmentation affecting mammal and bird communities-The role of interspecific competition and individual space use JF - Ecological informatics : an international journal on ecoinformatics and computational ecolog N2 - Fragmentation and loss of habitat are major threats to animal communities and are therefore important to conservation. Due to the complexity of the interplay of spatial effects and community processes, our mechanistic understanding of how communities respond to such landscape changes is still poor. Modelling studies have mostly focused on elucidating the principles of community response to fragmentation and habitat loss at relatively large spatial and temporal scales relevant to metacommunity dynamics. Yet, it has been shown that also small scale processes, like foraging behaviour, space use by individuals and local resource competition are also important factors. However, most studies that consider these smaller scales are designed for single species and are characterized by high model complexity. Hence, they are not easily applicable to ecological communities of interacting individuals. To fill this gap, we apply an allometric model of individual home range formation to investigate the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on mammal and bird communities, and, in this context, to investigate the role of interspecific competition and individual space use. Results show a similar response of both taxa to habitat loss. Community composition is shifted towards higher frequency of relatively small animals. The exponent and the 95%-quantile of the individual size distribution (ISD, described as a power law distribution) of the emerging communities show threshold behaviour with decreasing habitat area. Fragmentation per se has a similar and strong effect on mammals, but not on birds. The ISDs of bird communities were insensitive to fragmentation at the small scales considered here. These patterns can be explained by competitive release taking place in interacting animal communities, with the exception of bird's buffering response to fragmentation, presumably by adjusting the size of their home ranges. These results reflect consequences of higher mobility of birds compared to mammals of the same size and the importance of considering competitive interaction, particularly for mammal communities, in response to landscape fragmentation. Our allometric approach enables scaling up from individual physiology and foraging behaviour to terrestrial communities, and disentangling the role of individual space use and interspecific competition in controlling the response of mammal and bird communities to landscape changes. KW - Allometry KW - Body size KW - Fractal landscapes KW - Foraging movement KW - Individual-based model KW - Locomotion costs Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2012.11.015 SN - 1574-9541 VL - 14 SP - 90 EP - 98 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Blaum, Niels A1 - Brose, Ulrich A1 - Chipperfield, Joseph D. A1 - Clough, Yann A1 - Farwig, Nina A1 - Geissler, Katja A1 - Graham, Catherine H. A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Hickler, Thomas A1 - Huth, Andreas A1 - May, Felix A1 - Meyer, Katrin M. A1 - Pagel, Jörn A1 - Reineking, Björn A1 - Rillig, Matthias C. A1 - Shea, Katriona A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Schroeder, Boris A1 - Tielbörger, Katja A1 - Weiss, Lina A1 - Wiegand, Kerstin A1 - Wiegand, Thorsten A1 - Wirth, Christian A1 - Zurell, Damaris T1 - How can we bring together empiricists and modellers in functional biodiversity research? JF - Basic and applied ecology : Journal of the Gesellschaft für Ökologie N2 - Improving our understanding of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning and our capacity to inform ecosystem management requires an integrated framework for functional biodiversity research (FBR). However, adequate integration among empirical approaches (monitoring and experimental) and modelling has rarely been achieved in FBR. We offer an appraisal of the issues involved and chart a course towards enhanced integration. A major element of this path is the joint orientation towards the continuous refinement of a theoretical framework for FBR that links theory testing and generalization with applied research oriented towards the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We further emphasize existing decision-making frameworks as suitable instruments to practically merge these different aims of FBR and bring them into application. This integrated framework requires joint research planning, and should improve communication and stimulate collaboration between modellers and empiricists, thereby overcoming existing reservations and prejudices. The implementation of this integrative research agenda for FBR requires an adaptation in most national and international funding schemes in order to accommodate such joint teams and their more complex structures and data needs. KW - Biodiversity theory KW - Biodiversity experiments KW - Conservation management KW - Decision-making KW - Ecosystem functions and services KW - Forecasting KW - Functional traits KW - Global change KW - Monitoring programmes KW - Interdisciplinarity Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.baae.2013.01.001 SN - 1439-1791 VL - 14 IS - 2 SP - 93 EP - 101 PB - Elsevier CY - Jena ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sarmento, Juliano Sarmento A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Thuiller, Wilfried A1 - Higgins, Steven A1 - Midgley, Guy F. A1 - Rebelo, Anthony G. A1 - Rouget, Mathieu A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin T1 - Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of South African Proteaceae JF - Diversity & distributions : a journal of biological invasions and biodiversity N2 - Aim To assess how habitat loss and climate change interact in affecting the range dynamics of species and to quantify how predicted range dynamics depend on demographic properties of species and the severity of environmental change. Location South African Cape Floristic Region. Methods We use data-driven demographic models to assess the impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on range size, range filing and abundances of eight species of woody plants (Proteaceae). The species-specific models employ a hybrid approach that simulates population dynamics and long-distance dispersal on top of expected spatio-temporal dynamics of suitable habitat. Results Climate change was mainly predicted to reduce range size and range filling (because of a combination of strong habitat shifts with low migration ability). In contrast, habitat loss mostly decreased mean local abundance. For most species and response measures, the combination of habitat loss and climate change had the most severe effect. Yet, this combined effect was mostly smaller than expected from adding or multiplying effects of the individual environmental drivers. This seems to be because climate change shifts suitable habitats to regions less affected by habitat loss. Interspecific variation in range size responses depended mostly on the severity of environmental change, whereas responses in range filling and local abundance depended mostly on demographic properties of species. While most surviving populations concentrated in areas that remain climatically suitable, refugia for multiple species were overestimated by simply overlying habitat models and ignoring demography. Main conclusions Demographic models of range dynamics can simultaneously predict the response of range size, abundance and range filling to multiple drivers of environmental change. Demographic knowledge is particularly needed to predict abundance responses and to identify areas that can serve as biodiversity refugia under climate change. These findings highlight the need for data-driven, demographic assessments in conservation biogeography. KW - biodiversity refugia KW - CFR Proteaceae KW - climate change KW - demographic properties KW - habitat loss KW - local abundances KW - process-based range models KW - range filling KW - range size KW - species distribution models Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12011 SN - 1366-9516 VL - 19 IS - 4 SP - 363 EP - 376 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Spiegel, Orr A1 - Steinitz, Ofer A1 - Trakhtenbrot, Ana A1 - Tsoar, Asaf T1 - Mechanisms of long-distance seed dispersal N2 - Growing recognition of the importance of long-distance dispersal (LDD) of plant seeds for various ecological and evolutionary processes has led to an upsurge of research into the mechanisms underlying LDD. We summarize these findings by formulating six generalizations stating that LDD is generally more common in open terrestrial landscapes, and is typically driven by large and migratory animals, extreme meteorological phenomena, ocean currents and human transportation, each transporting a variety of seed morphologies. LDD is often associated with unusual behavior of the standard vector inferred from plant dispersal morphology, or mediated by nonstandard vectors. To advance our understanding of LDD, we advocate a vector-based research approach that identifies the significant LDD vectors and quantifies how environmental conditions modify their actions. Y1 - 2008 UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01695347 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2008.08.003 SN - 0169-5347 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Burkart, Michael A1 - Alsleben, Katja A1 - Lachmuth, Susanne A1 - Schumacher, Juliane A1 - Hofmann, Ralf A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin T1 - Recruitment requirements of the rare and threatened Juncus atratus N2 - The long-term persistence of populations and species depends on the successful recruitment of individuals. The generative recruitment of plants may be limited by a lack of suitable germination and establishment conditions. Establishment limitation may especially be caused by the competitive effect of surrounding dense vegetation, which is believed to restrict the recruitment success of many plant species to small open patches ('safe sites'). We conducted experiments to clarify the roles of germination and seedling establishment as limiting processes in the recruitment of Juncus atratus Krock., a rare and threatened herbaceous perennial river corridor plant in Central Europe. Light intensity had a positive effect on germination. However, some seedlings emerged even in total darkness and the germination rate at 1% light intensity was more than half of that at 60% light intensity. Seedling establishment in the field after 10 weeks was 30% on bare ground, but it was close to zero in grassland. Establishment in the growth chamber after 8 weeks was close to 75% for seedlings that germinated underwater, but only about 35% for seedlings that germinated afloat. Furthermore, establishment decreased with flooding duration on bare ground, but increased with flooding duration in grassland. These data indicate that establishment, rather than germination, is a critical life stage in Central European populations off. atratus. They furthermore indicate that the competition of surrounding vegetation for water limits seedling establishment under field conditions without flooding, largely restricting establishment success to bare ground habitats. In contrast, grassland is more suitable for the recruitment off. atratus than bare ground under prolonged flooding. Grassland may facilitate the establishment off. atratus seedlings during long- lasting floods by supplying oxygen to the soil through aerenchyma. The shift from competition to facilitation in grassland occurred after 30 days of flooding, i.e. within the ontogeny of individual plants. The specific recruitment requirements off. arrows may be a main cause of its rarity in modern Central Europe. In order to prevent regional extinction off. atratus, we suggest maintaining or re-establishing natural hydrodynamics in the species' habitats. Y1 - 2010 UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03672530 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.flora.2009.08.003 SN - 0367-2530 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Yates, Colin J. A1 - Elith, Jane A1 - Latimer, Andrew M. A1 - Le Maitre, David A1 - Midgley, Guy F. A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - West, Adam G. T1 - Projecting climate change impacts on species distributions in megadiverse South African Cape and Southwest Australian Floristic Regions : Opportunities and challenges N2 - Increasing evidence shows that anthropogenic climate change is affecting biodiversity. Reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions may slow global warming, but past emissions will continue to contribute to further unavoidable warming for more than a century. With obvious signs of difficulties in achieving effective mitigation worldwide in the short term at least, sound scientific predictions of future impacts on biodiversity will be required to guide conservation planning and adaptation. This is especially true in Mediterranean type ecosystems that are projected to be among the most significantly affected by anthropogenic climate change, and show the highest levels of confidence in rainfall projections. Multiple methods are available for projecting the consequences of climate change on the main unit of interest - the species - with each method having strengths and weaknesses. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied for forecasting climate change impacts on species geographic ranges. Aggregation of models for different species allows inferences of impacts on biodiversity, though excluding the effects of species interactions. The modelling approach is based on several further assumptions and projections and should be treated cautiously. In the absence of comparable approaches that address large numbers of species, SDMs remain valuable in estimating the vulnerability of species. In this review we discuss the application of SDMs in predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with special reference to the species-rich South West Australian Floristic Region and South African Cape Floristic Region. We discuss the advantages and challenges in applying SDMs in biodiverse regions with high levels of endemicity, and how a similar biogeographical history in both regions may assist us in understanding their vulnerability to climate change. We suggest how the process of predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with SDMs can be improved and emphasize the role of field monitoring and experiments in validating the predictions of SDMs. Y1 - 2010 UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1442-9993a U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1442-9993.2009.02044.x SN - 1442-9985 ER - TY - THES A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin T1 - From genes to species ranges : demographic studies of plant dynamics at multiple scales Y1 - 2009 CY - Potsdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Moloney, Kirk A. A1 - Holzapfel, Claus A1 - Tielbörger, Katja A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin T1 - Rethinking the common garden in invasion research N2 - In common garden experiments, a number of genotypes are raised in a common environment in order to quantify the genetic component of phenotypic variation. Common gardens are thus ideally suited for disentangling how genetic and environmental factors contribute to the success of invasive species in their new non-native range. Although common garden experiments are increasingly employed in the study of invasive species, there has been little discussion about how these experiments should be designed for greatest utility. We argue that this has delayed progress in developing a general theory of invasion biology. We suggest a minimum optimal design (MOD) for common garden studies that target the ecological and evolutionary processes leading to phenotypic differentiation between native and invasive ranges. This involves four elements: (A) multiple, strategically sited garden locations, involving at the very least four gardens (2 in the native range and 2 in the invaded range); (B) careful consideration of the genetic design of the experiment; (C) standardization of experimental protocols across all gardens; and (D) care to ensure the biosafety of the experiment. Our understanding of the evolutionary ecology of biological invasions will be greatly enhanced by common garden studies, if and only if they are designed in a more systematic fashion, incorporating at the very least the MOD suggested here. Y1 - 2009 UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/14338319 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ppees.2009.05.002 SN - 1433-8319 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kuparinen, Anna A1 - Katul, Gabriel A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin T1 - Increases in air temperature can promote wind-driven dispersal and spread of plants Y1 - 2009 UR - http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/276/1670/3081.abstract U6 - https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2009.0693 SN - 1471-2954 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Esther, Alexandra A1 - Groeneveld, Jürgen A1 - Enright, Neal J. A1 - Miller, Ben P. A1 - Lamont, Byron B. A1 - Perry, George L. W. A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Assessing the importance of seed immigration on coexistence of plant functional types in a species-rich ecosystem N2 - Modelling and empirical studies have shown that input from the regional seed pool is essential to maintain local species diversity. However, most of these studies have concentrated on simplified, if not neutral, model systems, and focus on a limited subset of species or on aggregated measures of diversity only (e.g., species richness or Shannon diversity). Thus they ignore more complex species interactions and important differences between species. To gain a better understanding of how seed immigration affects community structure at the local scale in real communities we conducted computer simulation experiments based on plant functional types (PFTs) for a species-rich, fire-prone Mediterranean-type shrubland in Western Australia. We developed a spatially explicit simulation model to explore the community dynamics of 38 PFTs, defined by seven traits - regeneration mode, seed production, seed size, maximum crown diameter, drought tolerance, dispersal mode and seed bank type - representing 78 woody species. Model parameterisation is based on published and unpublished data on the population dynamics of shrub species collected over 18 years. Simulation experiments are based on two contrasting seed immigration scenarios: (1) the 'equal seed input number' scenario, where the number of immigrant seeds is the same for all PFTs, and (2) the 'equal seed input mass' scenario, where the cumulative mass of migrating seeds is the same for all PFTs. Both scenarios were systematically tested and compared for different overall seed input values. Without immigration the local community drifts towards a state with only 13 coexisting PFTs. With increasing immigration rates in terms of overall mass of seeds the simulated number of coexisting PFTs and Shannon diversity quickly approaches values observed in the field. The equal seed mass scenario resulted in a more diverse community than did the seed number scenario. The model successfully approximates the frequency distributions (relative densities) of all individual plant traits except seed size for scenarios associated with equal seed input mass and high immigration rate. However, no scenario satisfactorily approximated the frequency distribution for all traits in combination. Our results show that regional seed input can explain the more aggregated measures of local community structure, and some, but not all, aspects of community composition. This points to the possible importance of other (untested) processes and traits (e.g., dispersal vectors) operating at the local scale. Our modelling framework can readily allow new factors to be systematically investigated, which is a major advantage compared to previous simulation studies, as it allows us to find structurally realistic models, which can address questions pertinent to ecological theory and to conservation management. Y1 - 2008 UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03043800 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.01.014 SN - 0304-3800 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Steinitz, Ofer A1 - Nathan, Ran T1 - Plant fecundity and seed dispersal in spatially heterogeneous environments : models, mechanisms and estimation Y1 - 2008 UR - http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/118509661/home U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2008.01371.x SN - 0022-0477 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Moloney, Kirk A. A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Köchy, Martin A1 - Schwager, Monika T1 - The state of plant population modelling in light of environmental change N2 - Plant population modelling has been around since the 1970s, providing a valuable approach to understanding plant ecology from a mechanistic standpoint. It is surprising then that this area of research has not grown in prominence with respect to other approaches employed in modelling plant systems. In this review, we provide an analysis of the development and role of modelling in the field of plant population biology through an exploration of where it has been, where it is now and, in our opinion, where it should be headed. We focus, in particular, on the role plant population modelling could play in ecological forecasting, an urgent need given current rates of regional and global environmental change. We suggest that a critical element limiting the current application of plant population modelling in environmental research is the trade-off between the necessary resolution and detail required to accurately characterize ecological dynamics pitted against the goal of generality, particularly at broad spatial scales. In addition to suggestions how to overcome the current shortcoming of data on the process-level we discuss two emerging strategies that may offer a way to overcome the described limitation: (1) application of a modern approach to spatial scaling from local processes to broader levels of interaction and (2) plant functional-type modelling. Finally we outline what we believe to be needed in developing these approaches towards a 'science of forecasting'. Y1 - 2008 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ppees.2007.11.004 SN - 1433-8319 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schmoll, Tim A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Winkel, Wolfgang A1 - Epplen, Joerg T. A1 - Lubjuhn, Thomas T1 - Lifespan, lifetime reproductive performance and paternity loss of within-pair and extra-pair offspring in the coal tit "Periparus ater" N2 - The hypothesis that females of socially monogamous species obtain indirect benefits (good or compatible genes) from extra-pair mating behaviour has received enormous attention but much less generally accepted support. Here we ask whether selection for adult survival and fecundity or sexual selection contribute to indirect selection of the extra- pair mating behaviour in socially monogamous coal tits (Periparus ater). We tracked locally recruited individuals with known paternity status through their lives predicting that the extra-pair offspring (EPO) would outperform the within- pair offspring (WPO). No differences between the WPO and EPO recruits were detected in lifespan or age of first reproduction. However, the male WPO had a higher lifetime number of broods and higher lifetime number of social offspring compared with male EPO recruits, while no such differences were evident for female recruits. Male EPO recruits did not compensate for their lower social reproductive success by higher fertilization success within their social pair bonds. Thus, our results do not support the idea that enhanced adult survival, fecundity or within-pair fertilization success are manifestations of the genetic benefits of extra-pair matings. But we emphasize that a crucial fitness component, the extra-pair fertilization success of male recruits, has yet to be taken into account to fully appreciate the fitness consequences of extra-pair matings. Y1 - 2009 UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2008.1116 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2008.1116 SN - 1471-2954 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kuparinen, Anna A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin T1 - Assessing the risk of gene flow from genetically modified trees carrying mitigation transgenes Y1 - 2008 UR - http://www.springerlink.com/content/103794 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-007-9129-6 SN - 1387-3547 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thuiller, Wilfried A1 - Albert, Cécile H. A1 - Araújo, Miguel B. A1 - Berry, Pam M. A1 - Cabeza, Mar A1 - Guisan, Antoine A1 - Hickler, Thomas A1 - Midgley, Guy F. A1 - Paterson, James A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Sykes, Martin T. A1 - Zimmermann, Niklaus E. T1 - Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions : future challenges Y1 - 2008 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ppees.2007.09.004 SN - 1433-8319 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Higgins, Steven I. A1 - Clark, Stephen James A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Hovestadt, Thomas A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Fragoso, Jose M. V. A1 - Aguiar, Martin R. A1 - Ribbens, Eric A1 - Lavorel, Sandra T1 - Forecasting plant migration rates : managing uncertainty for risk assessment N2 - 1. Anthropogenic changes in the global climate are shifting the potential ranges of many plant species. 2. Changing climates will allow some species the opportunity to expand their range, others may experience a contraction in their potential range, while the current and future ranges of some species may not overlap. Our capacity to generalize about the threat these range shifts pose to plant diversity is limited by many sources of uncertainty. 3. In this paper we summarize sources of uncertainty for migration forecasts and suggest a research protocol for making forecasts in the context of uncertainty. Y1 - 2003 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Tews, Jörg A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin T1 - Seed dispersal by cattle may cause shrub encroachment of Grewia flava on southern Kalahari rangelands N2 - Shrub encroachment, i.e. the increase in woody plant cover, is a major concern for livestock farming in southern Kalahari savannas. We developed a grid-based computer model simulating the population dynamics of Grewia flava, a common, fleshy-fruited encroaching shrub. In the absence of large herbivores, seeds of Grewia are largely deposited in the sub-canopy of Acacia erioloba. Cattle negate this dispersal limitation by browsing on the foliage of Grewia and dispersing seeds into the grassland matrix. In this study we first show that model predictions of Grewia cover dynamics are realistic by comparing model output with shrub cover estimates obtained from a time series of aerial photographs. Subsequently, we apply a realistic range of intensity of cattle-induced seed dispersal combined with potential precipitation and fire scenarios. Based on the simulation results we suggest that cattle may facilitate shrub encroachment of Grewia. The results show that the severity of shrub encroachment is governed by the intensity of seed dispersal. For a high seed dispersal intensity without fire (equivalent to a high stocking rate) the model predicts 56% shrub cover and 85% cell cover after 100 yr. With fire both recruitment and shrub cover are reduced, which may, under moderate intensities, prevent shrub encroachment. Climate change scenarios with two-fold higher frequencies of drought and wet years intensified shrub encroachment rates, although long-term mean of precipitation remained constant. As a management recommendation we suggest that shrub encroachment on rangelands may be counteracted by frequent fires and controlling cattle movements to areas with a high proportion of fruiting Grewia shrubs Y1 - 2004 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Dean, W. R. J. A1 - Milton, Sue J. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - A conceptual model linking demography of the shrub species Grewia flava to the dynamics of Kalahari savannas N2 - Environmental heterogeneity is a major determinant of plant population dynamics. In semi-arid Kalahari savannas, heterogeneity is created by savanna structure, i.e. by the spatial arrangement and temporal dynamics of woody plant and open grassland microsites. We formulate a conceptual model describing the effects of savanna dynamics on the population dynamics of the animal-dispersed shrub Grewia flava. From empirical results we derive model rules describing effects of savanna structure on several processes in Grewia's life cycle. By formulating the model, we summarise existing information on Grewia demography and identify gaps in this knowledge. Despite a number of such gaps, the model can be used to make certain quantitative predictions. As an example, we apply the model to investigate the role of seed dispersal in Grewia encroachment on rangelands. Model results show that cattle promote encroachment by depositing substantial numbers of seeds in open areas, where Grewia is otherwise dispersal-limited. Finally, we draw some general conclusions about Grewia's life history and population dynamics. Under natural conditions, concentrated seed deposition under woody plants appears to be a key process causing the observed association between Grewia and other woody plants. Furthermore, low rates of recruitment and high adult survival result in slow-motion dynamics of Grewia populations. As a consequence, Grewia populations interact with savanna dynamics on long temporal and short to intermediate spatial scales. Y1 - 2004 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Bossdorf, Oliver A1 - Milton, Sue J. A1 - Schumacher, J. T1 - Spatial pattern formation in semi-arid shrubland : a priori predicted versus observed pattern characteristics N2 - Ecologists increasingly use spatial statistics to study vegetation patterns. Mostly, however, these techniques are applied in a purely descriptive fashion without a priori statements on the pattern characteristics expected. We formulated such a priori predictions in a study of spatial pattern in a semi-arid Karoo shrubland, South Africa. Both seed dispersal and root competition have been discussed as processes shaping the spatial structure of this community. If either of the two processes dominates pattern formation, patterns within and between shrub functional groups are expected to show distinct deviations from null models. We predicted the type and scale of these deviations and compared predicted to observed pattern characteristics. As predicted by the seed dispersal hypothesis, small-scale co-occurrence within and between groups of colonisers and successors was increased as compared to complete spatially random arrangement of shrubs. The root competition predictions, however, were not met as shrubs of similar rooting depth co- occurred more frequently than expected under random shrub arrangement. Since the distribution of rooting groups to the given shrub locations also failed to match the root competition predictions, there was little evidence for dominance of root competition in pattern formation. Although other processes may contribute to small-scale plant co-occurrence, the sufficient and most parsimonious explanation for the observed pattern is that its formation was dominated by seed dispersal. To characterise point patterns we applied both cumulative (uni- and bivariate K-function) and local (pair- and mark-correlation function) techniques. Based on our results we recommend that future studies of vegetation patterns include local characteristics as they independently describe a pattern at different scales and can be easily related to processes changing with interplant distance in a predictable fashion. Y1 - 2004 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Bond, William J. A1 - Midgley, Guy F. A1 - Higgins, Steven I. T1 - A mechanistic model for secondary seed dispersal by wind and its experimental validation N2 - 1 Secondary seed dispersal by wind, the wind-driven movement of seeds along the ground surface, is an important dispersal mechanism for plant species in a range of environments. 2 We formulate a mechanistic model that describes how secondary dispersal by wind is affected by seed traits, wind conditions and obstacles to seed movement. The model simulates the movement paths of individual seeds and can be fully specified using independently measured parameters. 3 We develop an explicit version of the model that uses a spatially explicit representation of obstacle patterns, and also an aggregated version that uses probability distributions to model seed retention at obstacles and seed movement between obstacles. The aggregated version is computationally efficient and therefore suited to large-scale simulations. It provides a very good approximation of the explicit version (R-2 > 0.99) if initial seed positions vary randomly relative to the obstacle pattern. 4 To validate the model, we conducted a field experiment in which we released seeds of seven South African Proteaceae species that differ in seed size and morphology into an arena in which we systematically varied obstacle patterns. When parameterized with maximum likelihood estimates obtained from independent measurements, the explicit model version explained 70-77% of the observed variation in the proportion of seeds dispersed over 25 m and 67- 69% of the observed variation in the direction of seed dispersal. 5 The model tended to underestimate dispersal rates, possibly due to the omission of turbulence from the model, although this could also be explained by imprecise estimation of one model parameter (the aerodynamic roughness length). 6 Our analysis of the aggregated model predicts a unimodal relationship between the distance of secondary dispersal by wind and seed size. The model can also be used to identify species with the potential for long-distance seed transport by secondary wind dispersal. 7 The validated model expands the domain of mechanistic dispersal models, contributes to a functional understanding of seed dispersal, and provides a tool for predicting the distances that seeds move Y1 - 2005 SN - 0022-0477 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schmoll, Tim A1 - Dietrich, Volkmar A1 - Winkel, Wolfgang A1 - Epplen, J. T. A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Lubjuhn, Thomas T1 - Paternal genetic effects on offspring fitness are context dependent within the extrapair mating system of a socially monogamous passerine N2 - Avian extrapair mating systems provide an interesting model to assess the role of genetic benefits in the evolution of female multiple mating behavior, as potentially confounding nongenetic benefits of extrapair mate choice are seen to be of minor importance. Genetic benefit models of extrapair mating behavior predict that females engage in extrapair copulations with males of higher genetic quality compared to their social mates, thereby improving offspring reproductive value. The most straightforward test of such good genes models of extrapair mating implies pail-wise comparisons of maternal half-siblings raised in the same environment, which permits direct assessment of Paternal genetic effects oil offspring traits. But genetic benefits of mate choice may be difficult to detect. Furthermore, the extent of genetic benefits (in terms of increased offspring viability or fecundity) may depend oil the environmental context Such that the proposed differences between extrapair offspring (EPO) and within-pair offspring (WPO) only appear under comparatively poor environmental conditions. We tested the hypothesis that genetic benefits of female extrapair mate choice are context dependent by analyzing offspring fitness-related traits in the coal tit (Parus ater) in relation to seasonal variation in environmental conditions. Paternal genetic effects on offspring fitness were context dependent. as shown by a significant interaction effect of differential paternal genetic contribution and offspring hatching date. EPO showed a higher local recruitment probability than their maternal half-siblings if born comparatively late in the season (i.e.. when overall performance had significantly declined), while WPO performed better early in the season. The same general pattern of context dependence was evident when using the number of grandchildren born to a cuckolding female via her female WPO or EPO progeny as the respective fitness measure. However, we were unable to demonstrate that cuckolding females obtained a general genetic fitness benefit from extrapair fertilizations in terms of offspring viability or fecundity. Thus, another type of benefit Could be responsible for maintaining female extrapair mating preferences in the study population. Our results suggest that more than a single selective pressure may have shaped the evolution of female extrapair mating behavior in socially monogamous passerines. Y1 - 2005 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Higgins, Steven I. A1 - Flores, Olivier A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin T1 - Costs of persistence and the spread of competing seeders and sprouters Y1 - 2008 UR - http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/118509661/home U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2008.01391.x SN - 0022-0477 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schiffers, Katja A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Tielbörger, Katja A1 - Urbach, Carsten A1 - Moloney, Kirk A. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Dealing with virtual aggregation : a new index for analysing heterogeneous point patterns Y1 - 2008 UR - http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/117966123/home U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.05374.x SN - 0906-7590 ER -