TY - JOUR A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Lall, Upmanu A1 - Viglione, Alberto A1 - Blöschl, Günter T1 - Charting unknown waters-On the role of surprise in flood risk assessment and management JF - Water resources research N2 - Unexpected incidents, failures, and disasters are abundant in the history of flooding events. In this paper, we introduce the metaphors of terra incognita and terra maligna to illustrate unknown and wicked flood situations, respectively. We argue that surprise is a neglected element in flood risk assessment and management. Two sources of surprise are identified: (1) the complexity of flood risk systems, represented by nonlinearities, interdependencies, and nonstationarities and (2) cognitive biases in human perception and decision making. Flood risk assessment and management are particularly prone to cognitive biases due to the rarity and uniqueness of extremes, and the nature of human risk perception. We reflect on possible approaches to better understanding and reducing the potential for surprise and its adverse consequences which may be supported by conceptually charting maps that separate terra incognita from terra cognita, and terra maligna from terra benigna. We conclude that flood risk assessment and management should account for the potential for surprise and devastating consequences which will require a shift in thinking. Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017464 SN - 0043-1397 SN - 1944-7973 VL - 51 IS - 8 SP - 6399 EP - 6416 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Salazar, S. A1 - Frances, F. A1 - Komma, J. A1 - Blume, Theresa A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Blöschl, Günter T1 - A comparative analysis of the effectiveness of flood management measures based on the concept of "retaining water in the landscape" in different European hydro-climatic regions JF - Natural hazards and earth system sciences N2 - In this paper, we analyse the effectiveness of flood management measures based on the concept known as "retaining water in the landscape". The investigated measures include afforestation, micro-ponds and small-reservoirs. A comparative and model-based methodological approach has been developed and applied for three meso-scale catchments located in different European hydro-climatological regions: Poyo (184 km(2)) in the Spanish Mediterranean, Upper Iller (954 km(2)) in the German Alps and Kamp (621 km(2)) in Northeast-Austria representing the Continental hydro-climate. This comparative analysis has found general similarities in spite of the particular differences among studied areas. In general terms, the flood reduction through the concept of "retaining water in the landscape" depends on the following factors: the storage capacity increase in the catchment resulting from such measures, the characteristics of the rainfall event, the antecedent soil moisture condition and the spatial distribution of such flood management measures in the catchment. In general, our study has shown that, this concept is effective for small and medium events, but almost negligible for the largest and less frequent floods: this holds true for all different hydro-climatic regions, and with different land-use, soils and morphological settings. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3287-2012 SN - 1561-8633 VL - 12 IS - 11 SP - 3287 EP - 3306 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zehe, Erwin A1 - Elsenbeer, Helmut A1 - Lindenmaier, Falk A1 - Schulz, K. A1 - Blöschl, Günter T1 - Patterns of predictability in hydrological threshold systems N2 - [1] Observations of hydrological response often exhibit considerable scatter that is difficult to interpret. In this paper, we examine runoff production of 53 sprinkling experiments on the water-repellent soils in the southern Alps of Switzerland; simulated plot scale tracer transport in the macroporous soils at the Weiherbach site, Germany; and runoff generation data from the 2.3-km(2) Tannhausen catchment, Germany, that has cracking soils. The response at the three sites is highly dependent on the initial soil moisture state as a result of the threshold dynamics of the systems. A simple statistical model of threshold behavior is proposed to help interpret the scatter in the observations. Specifically, the model portrays how the inherent macrostate uncertainty of initial soil moisture translates into the scatter of the observed system response. The statistical model is then used to explore the asymptotic pattern of predictability when increasing the number of observations, which is normally not possible in a field study. Although the physical and chemical mechanisms of the processes at the three sites are different, the predictability patterns are remarkably similar. Predictability is smallest when the system state is close to the threshold and increases as the system state moves away from it. There is inherent uncertainty in the response data that is not measurement error but is related to the observability of the initial conditions. Y1 - 2007 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2006wr005589 SN - 0043-1397 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zehe, Erwin A1 - Blöschl, Günter T1 - Predictability of hydrologic response at the plot and catchment scales : the role of initial conditions N2 - [1] This paper examines the effect of uncertain initial soil moisture on hydrologic response at the plot scale (1 m(2)) and the catchment scale (3.6 km(2)) in the presence of threshold transitions between matrix and preferential flow. We adopt the concepts of microstates and macrostates from statistical mechanics. The microstates are the detailed patterns of initial soil moisture that are inherently unknown, while the macrostates are specified by the statistical distributions of initial soil moisture that can be derived from the measurements typically available in field experiments. We use a physically based model and ensure that it closely represents the processes in the Weiherbach catchment, Germany. We then use the model to generate hydrologic response to hypothetical irrigation events and rainfall events for multiple realizations of initial soil moisture microstates that are all consistent with the same macrostate. As the measures of uncertainty at the plot scale we use the coefficient of variation and the scaled range of simulated vertical bromide transport distances between realizations. At the catchment scale we use similar statistics derived from simulated flood peak discharges. The simulations indicate that at both scales the predictability depends on the average initial soil moisture state and is at a minimum around the soil moisture value where the transition from matrix to macropore flow occurs. The predictability increases with rainfall intensity. The predictability increases with scale with maximum absolute errors of 90 and 32% at the plot scale and the catchment scale, respectively. It is argued that even if we assume perfect knowledge on the processes, the level of detail with which one can measure the initial conditions along with the nonlinearity of the system will set limits to the repeatability of experiments and limits to the predictability of models at the plot and catchment scales Y1 - 2004 ER -