TY  - JOUR
A1  - Shebalin, Peter N.
A1  - Narteau, Clement
A1  - Zechar, Jeremy Douglas
A1  - Holschneider, Matthias
T1  - Combining earthquake forecasts using differential probability gains
JF  - Earth, planets and space
N2  - We describe an iterative method to combine seismicity forecasts. With this method, we produce the next generation of a starting forecast by incorporating predictive skill from one or more input forecasts. For a single iteration, we use the differential probability gain of an input forecast relative to the starting forecast. At each point in space and time, the rate in the next-generation forecast is the product of the starting rate and the local differential probability gain. The main advantage of this method is that it can produce high forecast rates using all types of numerical forecast models, even those that are not rate-based. Naturally, a limitation of this method is that the input forecast must have some information not already contained in the starting forecast. We illustrate this method using the Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) and Early Aftershocks Statistics (EAST) models, which are currently being evaluated at the US testing center of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. During a testing period from July 2009 to December 2011 (with 19 target earthquakes), the combined model we produce has better predictive performance - in terms of Molchan diagrams and likelihood - than the starting model (EEPAS) and the input model (EAST). Many of the target earthquakes occur in regions where the combined model has high forecast rates. Most importantly, the rates in these regions are substantially higher than if we had simply averaged the models.
KW  - Probabilistic forecasting
KW  - Earthquake interaction
KW  - Forecasting and prediction
KW  - Statistical seismology
Y1  - 2014
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1186/1880-5981-66-37
SN  - 1880-5981
VL  - 66
PB  - Springer
CY  - Heidelberg
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Zöller, Gert
A1  - Ben-Zion, Yehuda
T1  - Large earthquake hazard of the San Jacinto fault zone, CA, from long record of simulated seismicity assimilating the available instrumental and paleoseismic data
JF  - Pure and applied geophysics
N2  - We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m a parts per thousand yen 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquake.
KW  - Earthquake dynamics
KW  - Earthquake interaction
KW  - forecasting
KW  - prediction
KW  - Statistical seismology
KW  - Seismicity and tectonics
Y1  - 2014
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0783-1
SN  - 0033-4553
SN  - 1420-9136
VL  - 171
IS  - 11
SP  - 2955
EP  - 2965
PB  - Springer
CY  - Basel
ER  -