TY - GEN A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Seebauer, Sebastian A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Begg, Chloe A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Dittmer, Cordula A1 - Grothmann, Torsten A1 - Heidenreich, Anna A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Lorenz, Daniel F. A1 - Masson, Torsten A1 - Reiter, Jessica A1 - Thaler, Thomas A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Bamberg, Sebastian T1 - The behavioral turn in flood risk management, its assumptions and potential implications T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Recent policy changes highlight the need for citizens to take adaptive actions to reduce flood-related impacts. Here, we argue that these changes represent a wider behavioral turn in flood risk management (FRM). The behavioral turn is based on three fundamental assumptions: first, that the motivations of citizens to take adaptive actions can be well understood so that these motivations can be targeted in the practice of FRM; second, that private adaptive measures and actions are effective in reducing flood risk; and third, that individuals have the capacities to implement such measures. We assess the extent to which the assumptions can be supported by empirical evidence. We do this by engaging with three intellectual catchments. We turn to research by psychologists and other behavioral scientists which focus on the sociopsychological factors which influence individual motivations (Assumption 1). We engage with economists, engineers, and quantitative risk analysts who explore the extent to which individuals can reduce flood related impacts by quantifying the effectiveness and efficiency of household-level adaptive measures (Assumption 2). We converse with human geographers and sociologists who explore the types of capacities households require to adapt to and cope with threatening events (Assumption 3). We believe that an investigation of the behavioral turn is important because if the outlined assumptions do not hold, there is a risk of creating and strengthening inequalities in FRM. Therefore, we outline the current intellectual and empirical knowledge as well as future research needs. Generally, we argue that more collaboration across intellectual catchments is needed, that future research should be more theoretically grounded and become methodologically more rigorous and at the same time focus more explicitly on the normative underpinnings of the behavioral turn. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1440 KW - capacities KW - effectiveness KW - motivation KW - resources KW - risk governance KW - vulnerability Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517696 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 3 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Pham, My A1 - Hagedoorn, Liselotte A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Lasage, Ralph A1 - Bubeck, Philip T1 - Self-stated recovery from flooding BT - empirical results from a survey in Central Vietnam T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Social inequalities lead to flood resilience inequalities across social groups, a topic that requires improved documentation and understanding. The objective of this paper is to attend to these differences by investigating self-stated flood recovery across genders in Vietnam as a conceptual replication of earlier results from Germany. This study employs a regression-based analysis of 1,010 respondents divided between a rural coastal and an urban community in Thua Thien-Hue province. The results highlight an important set of recovery process-related variables. The set of relevant variables is similar across genders in terms of inclusion and influence, and includes age, social capital, internal and external support after a flood, perceived severity of previous flood impacts, and the perception of stress-resilience. However, women were affected more heavily by flooding in terms of longer recovery times, which should be accounted for in risk management. Overall, the studied variables perform similarly in Vietnam and Germany. This study, therefore, conceptually replicates previous results suggesting that women display slightly slower recovery levels as well as that psychological variables influence recovery rates more than adverse flood impacts. This provides an indication of the results' potentially robust nature due to the different socio-environmental contexts in Germany and Vietnam. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1140 KW - flood recovery KW - resilience KW - societal equity KW - vulnerability Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-503488 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1140 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Bubeck, Philip T1 - The challenges of longitudinal surveys in the flood risk domain T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - There has been much research regarding the perceptions, preferences, behaviour, and responses of people exposed to flooding and other nat- ural hazards. Cross-sectional surveys have been the predominant method applied in such research. While cross-sectional data can provide a snapshot of a respondent’s behaviour and perceptions, it cannot be assumed that the respondent’s perceptions are constant over time. As a result, many important research questions relating to dynamic processes, such as changes in risk perceptions, adaptation behaviour, and resilience cannot be fully addressed by cross-sectional surveys. To overcome these shortcomings, there has been a call for developing longitudinal (or panel) datasets in research on natural hazards, vulnerabilities, and risks. However, experiences with implementing longitudinal surveys in the flood risk domain (FRD), which pose distinct methodological challenges, are largely lacking. The key problems are sample recruitment, attrition rate, and attrition bias. We present a review of the few existing longitudinal surveys in the FRD. In addition, we investigate the potential attrition bias and attrition rates in a panel dataset of flood-affected households in Germany. We find little potential for attrition bias to occur. High attrition rates across longitudinal survey waves are the larger concern. A high attrition rate rapidly depletes the longitudinal sample. To overcome high attrition, longitudinal data should be collected as part of a multisector partnership to allow for sufficient resources to implement sample retention strategies. If flood-specific panels are developed, different sample retention strategies should be applied and evaluated in future research to understand how much-needed longitudinal surveying techniques can be successfully applied to the study of individuals threatened by flooding. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 759 KW - attrition bias KW - longitudinal KW - flood risk KW - panel KW - attrition rate Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-434092 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 759 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Pham, My A1 - Bubeck, Philip T1 - An evaluation and monetary assessment of the impact of flooding on subjective well-being across genders in Vietnam T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The intangible impacts of floods on welfare are not well investigated, even though they are important aspects of welfare. Moreover, flooding has gender based impacts on welfare. These differing impacts create a gender based flood risk resilience gap. We study the intangible impacts of flood risk on the subjective well-being of residents in central Vietnam. The measurement of intangible impacts through subjective well-being is a growing field within flood risk research. We find an initial drop in welfare through subjective well-being across genders when a flood is experienced. Male respondents tended to recover their welfare losses by around 80% within 5 years while female respondents were associated with a welfare recovery of around 70%. A monetization of the impacts floods have on an individual’s subjective well-being shows that for the average female respondent, between 41% to 86% of annual income would be required to compensate subjective well-being losses after 5 years of experiencing a flood. The corresponding value for males is 30% to 57% of annual income. This shows that the intangible impacts of flood risk are important (across genders) and need to be integrated into flood (or climate) risk assessments to develop more socially appropriate risk management strategies. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 736 KW - subjective well-being KW - flood risk KW - welfare KW - gender KW - resilience KW - intangible impacts Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-433414 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 736 SP - 623 EP - 637 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. A1 - de Moel, Hans A1 - Kreibich, Heidi T1 - Preface BT - Flood-risk analysis and integrated management T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - kein abstract T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 609 KW - public-participation KW - damage KW - losses KW - vulnerability KW - Netherlands KW - adaptation KW - strategies KW - buildings KW - insurance KW - frequency Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412387 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 609 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kellermann, Patric A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Kundela, Günther A1 - Dosio, Alessandro A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Frequency analysis of critical meteorological conditions in a changing climate BT - assessing future implications for railway transportation in Austria N2 - Meteorological extreme events have great potential for damaging railway infrastructure and posing risks to the safety of train passengers. In the future, climate change will presumably have serious implications on meteorological hazards in the Alpine region. Hence, attaining insights on future frequencies of meteorological extremes with relevance for the railway operation in Austria is required in the context of a comprehensive and sustainable natural hazard management plan of the railway operator. In this study, possible impacts of climate change on the frequencies of so-called critical meteorological conditions (CMCs) between the periods 1961-1990 and 2011-2040 are analyzed. Thresholds for such CMCs have been defined by the railway operator and used in its weather monitoring and early warning system. First, the seasonal climate change signals for air temperature and precipitation in Austria are described on the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for Europe. Subsequently, the RCM-ensemble was used to investigate changes in the frequency of CMCs. Finally, the sensitivity of results is analyzed with varying threshold values for the CMCs. Results give robust indications for an all-season air temperature rise, but show no clear tendency in average precipitation. The frequency analyses reveal an increase in intense rainfall events and heat waves, whereas heavy snowfall and cold days are likely to decrease. Furthermore, results indicate that frequencies of CMCs are rather sensitive to changes of thresholds. It thus emphasizes the importance to carefully define, validate, andif neededto adapt the thresholds that are used in the weather monitoring and warning system of the railway operator. For this, continuous and standardized documentation of damaging events and near-misses is a pre-requisite. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 358 KW - climate change KW - critical meteorological condition KW - frequency analysis KW - natural hazard management KW - railway transportation Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400505 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Rözer, Viktor A1 - Müller, Meike A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Kienzler, Sarah A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Pech, Ina A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Buchholz, Oliver A1 - Kreibich, Heidi T1 - Coping with pluvial floods by private households N2 - Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban areas in recent years. With a projected increase in extreme precipitation as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, further insights, especially on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods and their mitigation, are needed. To gain more knowledge, empirical damage data from three different pluvial flood events in Germany were collected through computer-aided telephone interviews. Pluvial flood awareness as well as flood experience were found to be low before the respective flood events. The level of private precaution increased considerably after all events, but is mainly focused on measures that are easy to implement. Lower inundation depths, smaller potential losses as compared with fluvial floods, as well as the fact that pluvial flooding may occur everywhere, are expected to cause a shift in damage mitigation from precaution to emergency response. However, an effective implementation of emergency measures was constrained by a low dissemination of early warnings in the study areas. Further improvements of early warning systems including dissemination as well as a rise in pluvial flood preparedness are important to reduce future pluvial flood damage. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 355 KW - pluvial floods KW - surface water flooding KW - emergency response KW - early warning KW - preparedness KW - damage KW - mitigation Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400465 ER -