TY  - JOUR
A1  - Oguntunde, Philip G.
A1  - Abiodun, Babatunde Joseph
A1  - Lischeid, Gunnar
A1  - Abatan, Abayomi A.
T1  - Droughts projection over the Niger and Volta River basins of West Africa at specific global warming levels
JF  - International Journal of Climatology
N2  - This study investigates possible impacts of four global warming levels (GWLs: GWL1.5, GWL2.0, GWL2.5, and GWL3.0) on drought characteristics over Niger River basin (NRB) and Volta River basin (VRB). Two drought indices-Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)-were employed in characterizing droughts in 20 multi-model simulation outputs from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The performance of the simulation in reproducing basic hydro-climatological features and severe drought characteristics (i.e., magnitude and frequency) in the basins were evaluated. The projected changes in the future drought frequency were quantified and compared under the four GWLs for two climate forcing scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). The regional climate model (RCM) ensemble gives a realistic simulation of historical hydro-climatological variables needed to calculate the drought indices. With SPEI, the simulation ensemble projects an increase in the magnitude and frequency of severe droughts over both basins (NRB and VRB) at all GWLs, but the increase, which grows with the GWLs, is higher over NRB than over VRB. More than 75% of the simulations agree on the projected increase at GWL1.5 and all simulations agree on the increase at higher GWLs. With SPI, the projected changes in severe drought is weaker and the magnitude remains the same at all GWLs, suggesting that SPI projection may underestimate impacts of the GWLs on the intensity and severity of future drought. The results of this study have application in mitigating impact of global warming on future drought risk over the regional water systems.
KW  - climate change
KW  - drought index
KW  - global warming levels
KW  - river basins
KW  - West Africa
KW  - CORDEX data
Y1  - 2019
VL  - 40
IS  - 13
PB  - John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
CY  - New Jersey
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Vindas-Picado, José
A1  - Yaney-Keller, Adam
A1  - St. Andrews, Laura
A1  - Panagopoulou, Aliki
A1  - Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar
T1  - Effectiveness of shading to mitigate the impact of high temperature on sea turtle clutches considering the effect on primary sex ratios
JF  - Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change : an international journal devoted to scientific, engineering, socio-economic and policy responses to environmental change
N2  - Developmental success of sea turtle clutches depends on incubation temperature, which also determines sex ratio of hatchlings. As global temperatures are rising, several studies have proposed mitigation strategies such as irrigation and shading to increase hatching success. Our study expands upon this research and measures the effects of using boxes with different degrees of shade coverage (50%, 80%, and 90%) on sand temperature and water content. Boxes were fully covered with fabric in 2017/2018 (top and sides) but were side open in 2018/2019. We took measurements at olive ridley (Lepidochelys olivacea) and leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) turtle nest depths (45 and 75 cm) at Playa Grande, Costa Rica. Shading reduced temperature by up to 0.8 degrees C and up to 0.4 degrees C at 45 cm and 75 cm, respectively. There were statistically significant differences between shading and control treatments at both depths, but differences between shade treatments were only significant when using side open boxes, possibly due to air flow. Shading had no effect on water content. While the impact of using shaded boxes on temperature was low, the potential impact on primary sex ratios was large. If shading were applied to leatherback clutches, the percentage of female hatchlings could vary by up to 50%, with a maximum difference around the pivotal temperature (temperature with 1:1 sex ratio). Shading can be useful to increase hatching success, but we recommend avoiding it at temperatures within the transitional range (temperatures that produce both sexes), or using it only during the last third of incubation, when sex is already determined. As global warming will likely continue, understanding potential impact and effectiveness of mitigation strategies may be critical for the survival of threatened sea turtle populations.
KW  - climate mitigation
KW  - climate change
KW  - hatchery
KW  - hatching success
KW  - TSD
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-020-09932-3
SN  - 1381-2386
SN  - 1573-1596
VL  - 25
IS  - 8
SP  - 1509
EP  - 1521
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Šedová, Barbora
A1  - Kalkuhl, Matthias
T1  - Who are the climate migrants and where do they go?
BT  - Evidence from rural India
JF  - World development
N2  - In this paper, we move from the large strand of research that looks at evidence of climate migration to the questions: who are the climate migrants? and where do they go? These questions are crucial to design policies that mitigate welfare losses of migration choices due to climate change. We study the direct and heterogeneous associations between weather extremes and migration in rural India. We combine ERAS reanalysis data with the India Human Development Survey household panel and conduct regression analyses by applying linear probability and multinomial logit models. This enables us to establish a causal relationship between temperature and precipitation anomalies and overall migration as well as migration by destination. We show that adverse weather shocks decrease rural-rural and international migration and push people into cities in different, presumably more prosperous states. A series of positive weather shocks, however, facilitates international migration and migration to cities within the same state. Further, our results indicate that in contrast to other migrants, climate migrants are likely to be from the lower end of the skill distribution and from households strongly dependent on agricultural production. We estimate that approximately 8% of all rural-urban moves between 2005 and 2012 can be attributed to weather. This figure might increase as a consequence of climate change. Thus, a key policy recommendation is to take steps to facilitate integration of less educated migrants into the urban labor market.
KW  - climate change
KW  - migration
KW  - household analysis
KW  - India
KW  - econometrics
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104848
SN  - 0305-750X
SN  - 1873-5991
VL  - 129
PB  - Elsevier Science
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Tesselaar, Max
A1  - Botzen, W. J. Wouter
A1  - Haer, Toon
A1  - Hudson, Paul
A1  - Tiggeloven, Timothy
A1  - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
T1  - Regional inequalities in flood insurance affordability and uptake under climate change
JF  - Sustainability
N2  - Flood insurance coverage can enhance financial resilience of households to changing flood risk caused by climate change. However, income inequalities imply that not all households can afford flood insurance. The uptake of flood insurance in voluntary markets may decline when flood risk increases as a result of climate change. This increase in flood risk may cause substantially higher risk-based insurance premiums, reduce the willingness to purchase flood insurance, and worsen problems with the unaffordability of coverage for low-income households. A socio-economic tipping-point can occur when the functioning of a formal flood insurance system is hampered by diminishing demand for coverage. In this study, we examine whether such a tipping-point can occur in Europe for current flood insurance systems under different trends in future flood risk caused by climate and socio-economic change. This analysis gives insights into regional inequalities concerning the ability to continue to use flood insurance as an instrument to adapt to changing flood risk. For this study, we adapt the "Dynamic Integrated Flood and Insurance" (DIFI) model by integrating new flood risk simulations in the model that enable examining impacts from various scenarios of climate and socio-economic change on flood insurance premiums and consumer demand. Our results show rising unaffordability and declining demand for flood insurance across scenarios towards 2080. Under a high climate change scenario, simulations show the occurrence of a socio-economic tipping-point in several regions, where insurance uptake almost disappears. A tipping-point and related inequalities in the ability to use flood insurance as an adaptation instrument can be mitigated by introducing reforms of flood insurance arrangements.
KW  - climate change
KW  - flood risk management
KW  - insurance
KW  - socio-economic
KW  - tipping-point
KW  - adaptation
KW  - partial equilibrium modeling
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/su12208734
SN  - 2071-1050
VL  - 12
IS  - 20
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Pan, Xiaohui
A1  - Wang, Weishi
A1  - Liu, Tie
A1  - Huang, Yue
A1  - De Maeyer, Philippe
A1  - Guo, Chenyu
A1  - Ling, Yunan
A1  - Akmalov, Shamshodbek
T1  - Quantitative detection and attribution of groundwater level variations in the Amu Darya Delta
JF  - Water
N2  - In the past few decades, the shrinkage of the Aral Sea is one of the biggest ecological catastrophes caused by human activity. To quantify the joint impact of both human activities and climate change on groundwater, the spatiotemporal groundwater dynamic characteristics in the Amu Darya Delta of the Aral Sea from 1999 to 2017 were analyzed, using the groundwater level, climate conditions, remote sensing data, and irrigation information. Statistics analysis was adopted to analyze the trend of groundwater variation, including intensity, periodicity, spatial structure, while the Pearson correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were used to quantify the impact of climate change and human activities on the variabilities of the groundwater level. Results reveal that the local groundwater dynamic has varied considerably. From 1999 to 2002, the groundwater level dropped from -189 cm to -350 cm. Until 2017, the groundwater level rose back to -211 cm with fluctuation. Seasonally, the fluctuation period of groundwater level and irrigation water was similar, both were about 18 months. Spatially, the groundwater level kept stable within the irrigation area and bare land but fluctuated drastically around the irrigation area. The Pearson correlation analysis reveals that the dynamic of the groundwater level is closely related to irrigation activity within the irrigation area (Nukus: -0.583), while for the place adjacent to the Aral Sea, the groundwater level is closely related to the Large Aral Sea water level (Muynak: 0.355). The results of PCA showed that the cumulative contribution rate of the first three components exceeds 85%. The study reveals that human activities have a great impact on groundwater, effective management, and the development of water resources in arid areas is an essential prerequisite for ecological protection.
KW  - groundwater level variation
KW  - climate change
KW  - human activities
KW  - statistical analysis
KW  - Amu Darya Delta
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/w12102869
SN  - 2073-4441
VL  - 12
IS  - 10
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Wolf, Sabina
A1  - Pham, My
A1  - Matthews, Nathanial
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
T1  - Understanding the implementation gap
BT  - policy-makers’ perceptions of ecosystem-based adaptation in Central Vietnam
JF  - Climate & development
N2  - In recent years, nature-based solutions are receiving increasing attention in the field of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation as inclusive, no regret approaches. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) can mitigate the impacts of climate change, build resilience and tackle environmental degradation thereby supporting the targets set by the 2030 Agenda, the Paris Agreement and the Sendai Framework. Despite these benefits, EbA is still rarely implemented in practice. To better understand the barriers to implementation, this research examines policy-makers' perceptions of EbA, using an extended version of Protection Motivation Theory as an analytical framework. Through semi-structured interviews with policy-makers at regional and provincial level in Central Vietnam, it was found that EbA is generally considered a promising response option, mainly due to its multiple ecosystem-service benefits. The demand for EbA measures was largely driven by the perceived consequences of natural hazards and climate change. Insufficient perceived response efficacy and time-lags in effectiveness for disaster risk reduction were identified as key impediments for implementation. Pilot projects and capacity building on EbA are important means to overcome these perceptual barriers. This paper contributes to bridging the knowledge-gap on political decision-making regarding EbA and can, thereby, promote its mainstreaming into policy plans.
KW  - climate change
KW  - ecosystem-based adaptation
KW  - risk perception
KW  - protection
KW  - motivation theory
KW  - decision making
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1724068
SN  - 1756-5529
SN  - 1756-5537
VL  - 13
IS  - 1
SP  - 81
EP  - 94
PB  - Taylor & Francis LTD
CY  - Abingdon
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Marzetz, Vanessa
A1  - Spijkerman, Elly
A1  - Striebel, Maren
A1  - Wacker, Alexander
T1  - Phytoplankton community responses to interactions between light intensity, light variations, and phosphorus supply
JF  - Frontiers in Environmental Science
N2  - In a changing world, phytoplankton communities face a large variety of challenges including altered light regimes. These alterations are caused by more pronounced stratification due to rising temperatures, enhanced eutrophication, and browning of lakes. Community responses toward these effects can emerge as alterations in physiology, biomass, biochemical composition, or diversity. In this study, we addressed the combined effects of changes in light and nutrient conditions on community responses. In particular, we investigated how light intensity and variability under two nutrient conditions influence (1) fast responses such as adjustments in photosynthesis, (2) intermediate responses such as pigment adaptation and (3) slow responses such as changes in community biomass and species composition. Therefore, we exposed communities consisting of five phytoplankton species belonging to different taxonomic groups to two constant and two variable light intensity treatments combined with two levels of phosphorus supply. The tested phytoplankton communities exhibited increased fast reactions of photosynthetic processes to light variability and light intensity. The adjustment of their light harvesting mechanisms via community pigment composition was not affected by light intensity, variability, or nutrient supply. However, pigment specific effects of light intensity, light variability, and nutrient supply on the proportion of the respective pigments were detected. Biomass was positively affected by higher light intensity and nutrient concentrations while the direction of the effect of variability was modulated by light intensity. Light variability had a negative impact on biomass at low, but a positive impact at high light intensity. The effects on community composition were species specific. Generally, the proportion of green algae was higher under high light intensity, whereas the cyanobacterium performed better under low light conditions. In addition to that, the diatom and the cryptophyte performed better with high nutrient supply while the green algae as well as the cyanobacterium performed better at low nutrient conditions. This shows that light intensity, light variability, and nutrient supply interactively affect communities. Furthermore, the responses are highly species and pigment specific, thus to clarify the effects of climate change a deeper understanding of the effects of light variability and species interactions within communities is important.
KW  - phytoplankton communities
KW  - light variability
KW  - photosynthetic rate
KW  - climate change
KW  - resource competition
KW  - light intensity (irradiance)
KW  - pigment composition
KW  - nutrient supply
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2020.539733
SN  - 2296-665X
VL  - 8
PB  - Frontiers Media
CY  - Lausanne
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Marzetz, Vanessa
A1  - Spijkerman, Elly
A1  - Striebel, Maren
A1  - Wacker, Alexander
T1  - Phytoplankton Community Responses to Interactions Between Light Intensity, Light Variations, and Phosphorus Supply
JF  - Frontiers in Environmental Science
N2  - In a changing world, phytoplankton communities face a large variety of challenges including altered light regimes. These alterations are caused by more pronounced stratification due to rising temperatures, enhanced eutrophication, and browning of lakes. Community responses toward these effects can emerge as alterations in physiology, biomass, biochemical composition, or diversity. In this study, we addressed the combined effects of changes in light and nutrient conditions on community responses. In particular, we investigated how light intensity and variability under two nutrient conditions influence (1) fast responses such as adjustments in photosynthesis, (2) intermediate responses such as pigment adaptation and (3) slow responses such as changes in community biomass and species composition. Therefore, we exposed communities consisting of five phytoplankton species belonging to different taxonomic groups to two constant and two variable light intensity treatments combined with two levels of phosphorus supply. The tested phytoplankton communities exhibited increased fast reactions of photosynthetic processes to light variability and light intensity. The adjustment of their light harvesting mechanisms via community pigment composition was not affected by light intensity, variability, or nutrient supply. However, pigment specific effects of light intensity, light variability, and nutrient supply on the proportion of the respective pigments were detected. Biomass was positively affected by higher light intensity and nutrient concentrations while the direction of the effect of variability was modulated by light intensity. Light variability had a negative impact on biomass at low, but a positive impact at high light intensity. The effects on community composition were species specific. Generally, the proportion of green algae was higher under high light intensity, whereas the cyanobacterium performed better under low light conditions. In addition to that, the diatom and the cryptophyte performed better with high nutrient supply while the green algae as well as the cyanobacterium performed better at low nutrient conditions. This shows that light intensity, light variability, and nutrient supply interactively affect communities. Furthermore, the responses are highly species and pigment specific, thus to clarify the effects of climate change a deeper understanding of the effects of light variability and species interactions within communities is important.
KW  - phytoplankton communities
KW  - light variability
KW  - photosynthetic rate
KW  - climate change
KW  - resource competition
KW  - light intensity (irradiance)
KW  - pigment composition
KW  - nutrient supply
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2020.539733
SN  - 2296-665X
VL  - 8
PB  - Frontiers Media
CY  - Lausanne
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Sælen, Håkon
A1  - Hovi, Jon
A1  - Sprinz, Detlef F.
A1  - Underdal, Arild
T1  - How US withdrawal might influence cooperation under the Paris climate agreement
JF  - Environmental science & policy
N2  - Using a novel agent-based model, we study how US withdrawal might influence the political process established by the Paris Agreement, and hence the prospects for reaching the collective goal to limit warming below 2 degrees C. Our model enables us to analyze to what extent reaching this goal despite US withdrawal would place more stringent requirements on other core elements of the Paris cooperation process. We find, first, that the effect of a US withdrawal depends critically on the extent to which member countries reciprocate others' promises and contributions. Second, while the 2 degrees C goal will likely be reached only under a very small set of conditions in any event, even temporary US withdrawal will further narrow this set significantly. Reaching this goal will then require other countries to step up their ambition at the first opportunity and to comply nearly 100% with their pledges, while maintaining high confidence in the Paris Agreements institutions. Third, although a US withdrawal will first primarily affect the United States' own emissions, it will eventually prove even more detrimental to other countries' emissions.
KW  - climate change
KW  - Paris agreement
KW  - President Trump
KW  - 2 degrees C target
KW  - agent-based modeling
KW  - reciprocity
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.03.011
SN  - 1462-9011
SN  - 1873-6416
VL  - 108
SP  - 121
EP  - 132
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Guzman, Diego A.
A1  - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme
A1  - Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario
T1  - Multi-year index-based insurance for adapting Water Utility Companies to hydrological drought
BT  - case study of a water supply system of the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, Brazil
JF  - Water
N2  - The sustainability of water utility companies is threatened by non-stationary drivers, such as climate and anthropogenic changes. To cope with potential economic losses, instruments such as insurance are useful for planning scenarios and mitigating impacts, but data limitations and risk uncertainties affect premium estimation and, consequently, business sustainability. This research estimated the possible economic impacts of business interruption to the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company derived from hydrological drought and how this could be mitigated with an insurance scheme. Multi-year insurance (MYI) was proposed through a set of "change" drivers: the climate driver, through forcing the water evaluation and planning system (WEAP) hydrological tool; the anthropogenic driver, through water demand projections; and the economic driver, associated with recent water price policies adopted by the utility company during water scarcity periods. In our study case, the evaluated indices showed that MYI contracts that cover only longer droughts, regardless of the magnitude, offer better financial performance than contracts that cover all events (in terms of drought duration). Moreover, through MYI contracts, we demonstrate solvency for the insurance fund in the long term and an annual average actuarially fair premium close to the total expected revenue reduction.
KW  - multi-year insurance
KW  - climate change
KW  - hydrological drought
KW  - water
KW  - security and economy
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/w12112954
SN  - 2073-4441
VL  - 12
IS  - 11
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  -