TY  - JOUR
A1  - Roe, Stephanie
A1  - Streck, Charlotte
A1  - Beach, Robert
A1  - Busch, Jonah
A1  - Chapman, Melissa
A1  - Daioglou, Vassilis
A1  - Deppermann, Andre
A1  - Doelman, Jonathan
A1  - Emmet-Booth, Jeremy
A1  - Engelmann, Jens
A1  - Fricko, Oliver
A1  - Frischmann, Chad
A1  - Funk, Jason
A1  - Grassi, Giacomo
A1  - Griscom, Bronson
A1  - Havlik, Petr
A1  - Hanssen, Steef
A1  - Humpenöder, Florian
A1  - Landholm, David
A1  - Lomax, Guy
A1  - Lehmann, Johannes
A1  - Mesnildrey, Leah
A1  - Nabuurs, Gert-Jan
A1  - Popp, Alexander
A1  - Rivard, Charlotte
A1  - Sanderman, Jonathan
A1  - Sohngen, Brent
A1  - Smith, Pete
A1  - Stehfest, Elke
A1  - Woolf, Dominic
A1  - Lawrence, Deborah
T1  - Land-based measures to mitigate climate change
BT  - potential and feasibility by country
JF  - Global change biology
N2  - Land-based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land-based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing “bottom-up” sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country level. Cost-effective (available up to $100/tCO2eq) land-based mitigation is 8–13.8 GtCO2eq yr−1 between 2020 and 2050, with the bottom end of this range representing the IAM median and the upper end representing the sectoral estimate. The cost-effective sectoral estimate is about 40% of available technical potential and is in line with achieving a 1.5°C pathway in 2050. Compared to technical potentials, cost-effective estimates represent a more realistic and actionable target for policy. The cost-effective potential is approximately 50% from forests and other ecosystems, 35% from agriculture, and 15% from demand-side measures. The potential varies sixfold across the five regions assessed (0.75–4.8 GtCO2eq yr−1) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. Protection of forests and other ecosystems and demand-side measures present particularly high mitigation efficiency, high provision of co-benefits, and relatively lower costs. The feasibility assessment suggests that governance, economic investment, and socio-cultural conditions influence the likelihood that land-based mitigation potentials are realized. A substantial portion of potential (80%) is in developing countries and LDCs, where feasibility barriers are of greatest concern. Assisting countries to overcome barriers may result in significant quantities of near-term, low-cost mitigation while locally achieving important climate adaptation and development benefits. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land-based measures available, their potential co-benefits and risks, and their feasibility. Enhanced investments and country-specific plans that accommodate this complexity are urgently needed to realize the large global potential from improved land stewardship.
KW  - AFOLU
KW  - co-benefits
KW  - demand management
KW  - feasibility
KW  - land management
KW  - land sector
KW  - mitigation
KW  - natural climate solutions
KW  - nature-based solutions
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15873
SN  - 1365-2486
VL  - 27
IS  - 23
SP  - 6025
EP  - 6058
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Luderer, Gunnar
A1  - Madeddu, Silvia
A1  - Merfort, Leon
A1  - Ueckerdt, Falko
A1  - Pehl, Michaja
A1  - Pietzcker, Robert C.
A1  - Rottoli, Marianna
A1  - Schreyer, Felix
A1  - Bauer, Nico
A1  - Baumstark, Lavinia
A1  - Bertram, Christoph
A1  - Dirnaichner, Alois
A1  - Humpenöder, Florian
A1  - Levesque, Antoine
A1  - Popp, Alexander
A1  - Rodrigues, Renato
A1  - Strefler, Jessica
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
T1  - Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios
JF  - Nature energy
N2  - Cost degression in photovoltaics, wind-power and battery storage has been faster than previously anticipated. In the future, climate policy to limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C will make carbon-based fuels increasingly scarce and expensive. Here we show that further progress in solar- and wind-power technology along with carbon pricing to reach the Paris Climate targets could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. In combination with demand-side innovation, for instance in e-mobility and heat pumps, this is likely to induce a fundamental transformation of energy systems towards a dominance of electricity-based end uses. In a 1.5 °C scenario with limited availability of bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could account for 66% of final energy by mid-century, three times the current levels and substantially higher than in previous climate policy scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The lower production of bioenergy in our high-electrification scenarios markedly reduces energy-related land and water requirements.
KW  - climate-change mitigation
KW  - energy modelling
KW  - renewable energy
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00937-z
SN  - 2058-7546
N1  - Corrigendum: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01000-1
VL  - 7
IS  - 1
SP  - 32
EP  - 42
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Riahi, Keywan
A1  - Bertram, Christoph
A1  - Huppmann, Daniel
A1  - Rogelj, Joeri
A1  - Bosetti, Valentina
A1  - Cabardos, Anique-Marie
A1  - Deppermann, Andre
A1  - Drouet, Laurent
A1  - Frank, Stefan
A1  - Fricko, Oliver
A1  - Fujimori, Shinichiro
A1  - Harmsen, Mathijs
A1  - Hasegawa, Tomoko
A1  - Krey, Volker
A1  - Luderer, Gunnar
A1  - Paroussos, Leonidas
A1  - Schaeffer, Roberto
A1  - Weitzel, Matthias
A1  - van der Zwaan, Bob
A1  - Vrontisi, Zoi
A1  - Longa, Francesco Dalla
A1  - Després, Jacques
A1  - Fosse, Florian
A1  - Fragkiadakis, Kostas
A1  - Gusti, Mykola
A1  - Humpenöder, Florian
A1  - Keramidas, Kimon
A1  - Kishimoto, Paul
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
A1  - Meinshausen, Malte
A1  - Nogueira, Larissa Pupo
A1  - Oshiro, Ken
A1  - Popp, Alexander
A1  - Rochedo, Pedro R. R.
A1  - Ünlü, Gamze
A1  - van Ruijven, Bas
A1  - Takakura, Junya
A1  - Tavoni, Massimo
A1  - van Vuuren, Detlef P.
A1  - Zakeri, Behnam
T1  - Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot
JF  - Nature climate change
N2  - Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate.
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01215-2
SN  - 1758-678X
SN  - 1758-6798
VL  - 11
IS  - 12
SP  - 1063
EP  - 1069
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Soergel, Bjoern
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
A1  - Weindl, Isabelle
A1  - Rauner, Sebastian
A1  - Dirnaichner, Alois
A1  - Ruhe, Constantin
A1  - Hofmann, Matthias
A1  - Bauer, Nico
A1  - Bertram, Christoph
A1  - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
A1  - Leimbach, Marian
A1  - Leininger, Julia
A1  - Levesque, Antoine
A1  - Luderer, Gunnar
A1  - Pehl, Michaja
A1  - Wingens, Christopher
A1  - Baumstark, Lavinia
A1  - Beier, Felicitas
A1  - Dietrich, Jan Philipp
A1  - Humpenöder, Florian
A1  - von Jeetze, Patrick
A1  - Klein, David
A1  - Koch, Johannes
A1  - Pietzcker, Robert C.
A1  - Strefler, Jessica
A1  - Lotze-Campen, Hermann
A1  - Popp, Alexander
T1  - A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda
JF  - Nature climate change
N2  - Ambitious climate policies, as well as economic development, education, technological progress and less resource-intensive lifestyles, are crucial elements for progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, using an integrated modelling framework covering 56 indicators or proxies across all 17 SDGs, we show that they are insufficient to reach the targets. An additional sustainable development package, including international climate finance, progressive redistribution of carbon pricing revenues, sufficient and healthy nutrition and improved access to modern energy, enables a more comprehensive sustainable development pathway. We quantify climate and SDG outcomes, showing that these interventions substantially boost progress towards many aspects of the UN Agenda 2030 and simultaneously facilitate reaching ambitious climate targets. Nonetheless, several important gaps remain; for example, with respect to the eradication of extreme poverty (180 million people remaining in 2030). These gaps can be closed by 2050 for many SDGs while also respecting the 1.5 °C target and several other planetary boundaries.
KW  - climate-change mitigation
KW  - climate-change policy
KW  - socioeconomic scenarios
KW  - sustainability
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01098-3
SN  - 1758-678X
SN  - 1758-6798
VL  - 11
IS  - 8
SP  - 656
EP  - 664
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Merfort, Leon
A1  - Bauer, Nico
A1  - Humpenöder, Florian
A1  - Klein, David
A1  - Strefler, Jessica
A1  - Popp, Alexander
A1  - Luderer, Gunnar
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
T1  - Bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions with sectorally fragmented policies
JF  - Nature climate change
N2  - Controlling bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions is key to exploiting bioenergy for climate change mitigation. However, the effect of different land-use and energy sector policies on specific bioenergy emissions has not been studied so far. Using the global integrated assessment model REMIND-MAgPIE, we derive a biofuel emission factor (EF) for different policy frameworks. We find that a uniform price on emissions from both sectors keeps biofuel emissions at 12 kg CO2 GJ−1. However, without land-use regulation, the EF increases substantially (64 kg CO2 GJ−1 over 80 years, 92 kg CO2 GJ−1 over 30 years). We also find that comprehensive coverage (>90%) of carbon-rich land areas worldwide is key to containing land-use emissions. Pricing emissions indirectly on the level of bioenergy consumption reduces total emissions by cutting bioenergy demand but fails to reduce the average EF. In the absence of comprehensive and timely land-use regulation, bioenergy thus may contribute less to climate change mitigation than assumed previously.
KW  - agriculture
KW  - climate-change mitigation
KW  - energy policy
KW  - energy supply and demand
KW  - environmental economics
Y1  - 2023
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01697-2
SN  - 1758-678X
SN  - 1758-6798
VL  - 13
IS  - 7
SP  - 685
EP  - 692
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Merfort, Leon
A1  - Bauer, Nico
A1  - Humpenöder, Florian
A1  - Klein, David
A1  - Strefler, Jessica
A1  - Popp, Alexander
A1  - Luderer, Gunnar
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
T1  - State of global land regulation inadequate to control biofuel land-use-change emissions
JF  - Nature climate change
N2  - Under current land-use regulation, carbon dioxide emissions from biofuel production exceed those from fossil diesel combustion. Therefore, international agreements need to ensure the effective and globally comprehensive protection of natural land before modern bioenergy can effectively contribute to achieving carbon neutrality.
KW  - agriculture
KW  - climate-change mitigation
KW  - energy policy
KW  - energy supply and demand
KW  - environmental economics
Y1  - 2023
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01711-7
SN  - 1758-678X
SN  - 1758-6798
VL  - 13
IS  - 7
SP  - 610
EP  - 612
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Soergel, Bjoern
A1  - Kriegler, Elmar
A1  - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
A1  - Bauer, Nico
A1  - Leimbach, Marian
A1  - Popp, Alexander
T1  - Combining ambitious climate policies with efforts to eradicate poverty
JF  - Nature Communications
N2  - Climate change threatens to undermine efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. However, climate policies could impose a financial burden on the global poor through increased energy and food prices. Here, we project poverty rates until 2050 and assess how they are influenced by mitigation policies consistent with the 1.5 degrees C target. A continuation of historical trends will leave 350 million people globally in extreme poverty by 2030. Without progressive redistribution, climate policies would push an additional 50 million people into poverty. However, redistributing the national carbon pricing revenues domestically as an equal-per-capita climate dividend compensates this policy side effect, even leading to a small net reduction of the global poverty headcount (-6 million). An additional international climate finance scheme enables a substantial poverty reduction globally and also in Sub-Saharan Africa. Combining national redistribution with international climate finance thus provides an important entry point to climate policy in developing countries. Ambitious climate policies can negatively impact the global poor by affecting income, food and energy prices. Here, the authors quantify this effect, and show that it can be compensated by national redistribution of the carbon pricing revenues in combination with international climate finance.
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22315-9
SN  - 2041-1723
VL  - 12
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Herrero, Mario
A1  - Thornton, Philip K.
A1  - Mason-D'Croz, Daniel
A1  - Palmer, Jeda
A1  - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
A1  - Pradhan, Prajal
A1  - Barrett, Christopher B.
A1  - Benton, Tim G.
A1  - Hall, Andrew
A1  - Pikaar, Ilje
A1  - Bogard, Jessica R.
A1  - Bonnett, Graham D.
A1  - Bryan, Brett A.
A1  - Campbell, Bruce M.
A1  - Christensen, Svend
A1  - Clark, Michael
A1  - Fanzo, Jessica
A1  - Godde, Cecile M.
A1  - Jarvis, Andy
A1  - Loboguerrero, Ana Maria
A1  - Mathys, Alexander
A1  - McIntyre, C. Lynne
A1  - Naylor, Rosamond L.
A1  - Nelson, Rebecca
A1  - Obersteiner, Michael
A1  - Parodi, Alejandro
A1  - Popp, Alexander
A1  - Ricketts, Katie
A1  - Smith, Pete
A1  - Valin, Hugo
A1  - Vermeulen, Sonja J.
A1  - Vervoort, Joost
A1  - van Wijk, Mark
A1  - van Zanten, Hannah H. E.
A1  - West, Paul C.
A1  - Wood, Stephen A.
A1  - Rockström, Johan
T1  - Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals
JF  - The lancet Planetary health
N2  - Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30277-1
SN  - 2542-5196
VL  - 5
IS  - 1
SP  - E50
EP  - E62
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Lotze-Campen, Hermann
A1  - Verburg, Peter H.
A1  - Popp, Alexander
A1  - Lindner, Marcus
A1  - Verkerk, Pieter J.
A1  - Moiseyev, Alexander
A1  - Schrammeijer, Elizabeth
A1  - Helming, John
A1  - Tabeau, Andrzej
A1  - Schulp, Catharina J. E.
A1  - van der Zanden, Emma H.
A1  - Lavalle, Carlo
A1  - Batista e Silva, Filipe
A1  - Walz, Ariane
A1  - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
T1  - A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways
JF  - Regional environmental change
N2  - Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall sustainable development. The assessment of multiple emerging land use trade-offs is complicated by the fact that land use changes occur and have consequences at local, regional, and even global scale. Outcomes also depend on the underlying socio-economic trends. We apply a coupled, multi-scale modelling system to assess an increase in nature protection areas as a key policy option in the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to understand the interactions between policy-induced land use changes across different scales and sectors under two contrasting future socio-economic pathways. We demonstrate how complementary insights into land system change can be gained by coupling land use models for agriculture, forestry, and urban areas for Europe, in connection with other world regions. The simulated policy case of nature protection shows how the allocation of a certain share of total available land to newly protected areas, with specific management restrictions imposed, may have a range of impacts on different land-based sectors until the year 2040. Agricultural land in Europe is slightly reduced, which is partly compensated for by higher management intensity. As a consequence of higher costs, total calorie supply per capita is reduced within the EU. While wood harvest is projected to decrease, carbon sequestration rates increase in European forests. At the same time, imports of industrial roundwood from other world regions are expected to increase. Some of the aggregate effects of nature protection have very different implications at the local to regional scale in different parts of Europe. Due to nature protection measures, agricultural production is shifted from more productive land in Europe to on average less productive land in other parts of the world. This increases, at the global level, the allocation of land resources for agriculture, leading to a decrease in tropical forest areas, reduced carbon stocks, and higher greenhouse gas emissions outside of Europe. The integrated modelling framework provides a method to assess the land use effects of a single policy option while accounting for the trade-offs between locations, and between regional, European, and global scales.
KW  - Land use change
KW  - Integrated modelling
KW  - Cross-scale interaction
KW  - Nature protection
KW  - Impact assessment
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1167-8
SN  - 1436-3798
SN  - 1436-378X
VL  - 18
IS  - 3
SP  - 751
EP  - 762
PB  - Springer
CY  - Heidelberg
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Popp, Alexander
A1  - Domptail, Stephanie
A1  - Blaum, Niels
A1  - Jeltsch, Florian
T1  - Landuse experience does not qualify for adaptation to climate change
N2  - The need to implement sustainable resource management regimes for semi-arid and arid rangelands is acute as non- adapted grazing strategies lead to irreversible environmental problems such as desertification and associated loss of economic support to society. In these sensitive ecosystems, traditional sectoral, disciplinary approaches will not work to attain sustainability: achieving a collective vision of how to attain sustainability requires interactive efforts among disciplines in a more integrated approach. Therefore, we developed an integrated ecological-economic approach that consists of an ecological and an economic module and combines relevant processes on either level. Parameters for both modules are adjusted for an arid dwarf shrub savannah in southern Namibia. The economic module is used to analyse decisions of different virtual farmer types on annual stocking rates depending on their knowledge how the ecosystem works and climatic conditions. We used a dynamic linear optimisation model to simulate farm economics and livestock dynamics. The ecological module is used to simulate the impact of the farmers' land-use decision, derived by the economic module, on ecosystem dynamics and resulting carrying capacity of the system for livestock. Vegetation dynamics, based on the concept of State-and-transition models, and forage productivity for both modules is derived by a small- scale and spatially explicit vegetation model. This mechanistic approach guarantees that data collected and processes estimated at smaller scales are included in our application. Simulation results of the ecological module were successfully compared to simulation results of the optimisation model for a time series of 30 years. We revealed that sustainable management of semi-arid and arid rangelands relies strongly on rangeland managers' understanding of ecological processes. Furthermore, our simulation results demonstrate that the projected lower annual rainfall due to climate change adds an additional layer of risk to these ecosystems that are already prone to land degradation.
Y1  - 2009
UR  - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03043800
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.11.015
SN  - 0304-3800
ER  -