TY  - JOUR
A1  - Cabral, Juliano Sarmento
A1  - Valente, Luis
A1  - Hartig, Florian
T1  - Mechanistic simulation models in macroecology and biogeography
BT  - state-of-art and prospects
JF  - Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology
N2  - Macroecology and biogeography are concerned with understanding biodiversity patterns across space and time. In the past, the two disciplines have addressed this question mainly with correlative approaches, despite frequent calls for more mechanistic explanations. Recent advances in computational power, theoretical understanding, and statistical tools are, however, currently facilitating the development of more system-oriented, mechanistic models. We review these models, identify different model types and theoretical frameworks, compare their processes and properties, and summarize emergent findings. We show that ecological (physiology, demographics, dispersal, biotic interactions) and evolutionary processes, as well as environmental and human-induced drivers, are increasingly modelled mechanistically; and that new insights into biodiversity dynamics emerge from these models. Yet, substantial challenges still lie ahead for this young research field. Among these, we identify scaling, calibration, validation, and balancing complexity as pressing issues. Moreover, particular process combinations are still understudied, and so far models tend to be developed for specific applications. Future work should aim at developing more flexible and modular models that not only allow different ecological theories to be expressed and contrasted, but which are also built for tight integration with all macroecological data sources. Moving the field towards such a ‘systems macroecology’ will test and improve our understanding of the causal pathways through which eco-evolutionary processes create diversity patterns across spatial and temporal scales.
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02480
SN  - 0906-7590
SN  - 1600-0587
VL  - 40
IS  - 2
SP  - 267
EP  - 280
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Valente, Luis
A1  - Etienne, Rampal S.
A1  - Davalos, Liliana M.
T1  - Recent extinctions disturb path to equilibrium diversity in Caribbean bats
JF  - Nature Ecology & Evolution
N2  - Islands are ideal systems to model temporal changes in biodiversity and reveal the influence of humans on natural communities. Although theory predicts biodiversity on islands tends towards an equilibrium value, the recent extinction of large proportions of island biotas complicates testing this model. The well-preserved subfossil record of Caribbean bats-involving multiple insular radiations-provides a rare opportunity to model diversity dynamics in an insular community. Here, we reconstruct the diversity trajectory in noctilionoid bats of the Greater Antilles by applying a dynamic model of colonization, extinction and speciation to phylogenetic and palaeontological data including all known extinct and extant species. We show species richness asymptotes to an equilibrium value, a demonstration of natural equilibrium dynamics across an entire community. However, recent extinctions-many caused by humans-have wiped out nearly a third of island lineages, dragging diversity away from equilibrium. Using a metric to measure island biodiversity loss, we estimate it will take at least eight million years to regain pre-human diversity levels. Our integrative approach reveals how anthropogenic extinctions can drastically alter the natural trajectory of biological communities, resulting in evolutionary disequilibrium.
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-016-0026
SN  - 2397-334X
VL  - 1
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Borregaard, Michael K.
A1  - Amorim, Isabel R.
A1  - Borges, Paulo A. V.
A1  - Cabral, Juliano Sarmento
A1  - Fernandez-Palacios, Jose M.
A1  - Field, Richard
A1  - Heaney, Lawrence R.
A1  - Kreft, Holger
A1  - Matthews, Thomas J.
A1  - Olesen, Jens M.
A1  - Price, Jonathan
A1  - Rigal, Francois
A1  - Steinbauer, Manuel J.
A1  - Triantis, Konstantinos A.
A1  - Valente, Luis
A1  - Weigelt, Patrick
A1  - Whittaker, Robert J.
T1  - Oceanic island biogeography through the lens of the general dynamic model: assessment and prospect
JF  - Biological reviews
KW  - archipelago
KW  - diversity theory
KW  - general dynamic model
KW  - island biogeography
KW  - island evolution
KW  - trait evolution
KW  - volcanic islands
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12256
SN  - 1464-7931
SN  - 1469-185X
VL  - 92
SP  - 830
EP  - 853
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Valente, Luis
A1  - Illera, Juan Carlos
A1  - Havenstein, Katja
A1  - Pallien, Tamara
A1  - Etienne, Rampal S.
A1  - Tiedemann, Ralph
T1  - Equilibrium Bird Species Diversity in Atlantic Islands
JF  - Current biology
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2017.04.053
SN  - 0960-9822
SN  - 1879-0445
VL  - 27
SP  - 1660
EP  - +
PB  - Cell Press
CY  - Cambridge
ER  -