TY  - JOUR
A1  - Frieler, Katja
A1  - Levermann, Anders
A1  - Elliott, J.
A1  - Heinke, Jens
A1  - Arneth, A.
A1  - Bierkens, M. F. P.
A1  - Ciais, Philippe
A1  - Clark, D. B.
A1  - Deryng, D.
A1  - Doell, P.
A1  - Falloon, P.
A1  - Fekete, B.
A1  - Folberth, Christian
A1  - Friend, A. D.
A1  - Gellhorn, C.
A1  - Gosling, S. N.
A1  - Haddeland, I.
A1  - Khabarov, N.
A1  - Lomas, M.
A1  - Masaki, Y.
A1  - Nishina, K.
A1  - Neumann, K.
A1  - Oki, T.
A1  - Pavlick, R.
A1  - Ruane, A. C.
A1  - Schmid, E.
A1  - Schmitz, C.
A1  - Stacke, T.
A1  - Stehfest, E.
A1  - Tang, Q.
A1  - Wisser, D.
A1  - Huber, Veronika
A1  - Piontek, Franziska
A1  - Warszawski, Lila
A1  - Schewe, Jacob
A1  - Lotze-Campen, Hermann
A1  - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
T1  - A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections
BT  - land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties
JF  - Earth system dynamics
N2  - Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making.
 Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.
Y1  - 2015
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015
SN  - 2190-4979
SN  - 2190-4987
VL  - 6
IS  - 2
SP  - 447
EP  - 460
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Lehmann, Jascha
A1  - Coumou, Dim
T1  - The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry and wet extremes
JF  - Scientific reports
N2  - Changes in mid-latitude circulation can strongly affect the number and intensity of extreme weather events. In particular, high-amplitude quasi-stationary planetary waves have been linked to prolonged weather extremes at the surface. In contrast, analyses of fast-traveling synoptic-scale waves and their direct influence on heat and cold extremes are scarce though changes in such waves have been detected and are projected for the 21st century. Here we apply regression analyses of synoptic activity with surface temperature and precipitation in monthly gridded observational data. We show that over large parts of mid-latitude continental regions, summer heat extremes are associated with low storm track activity. In winter, the occurrence of cold spells is related to low storm track activity over parts of eastern North America, Europe, and central-to eastern Asia. Storm tracks thus have a moderating effect on continental temperatures. Pronounced storm track activity favors monthly rainfall extremes throughout the year, whereas dry spells are associated with a lack thereof. Trend analyses reveal significant regional changes in recent decades favoring the occurrence of cold spells in the eastern US, droughts in California and heat extremes over Eurasia.
Y1  - 2015
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/srep17491
SN  - 2045-2322
VL  - 5
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - London
ER  -