TY - JOUR A1 - Groschwitz, Jonas A1 - Szabo, Tibor T1 - Sharp Thresholds for Half-Random Games II JF - GRAPHS AND COMBINATORICS N2 - We study biased Maker-Breaker positional games between two players, one of whom is playing randomly against an opponent with an optimal strategy. In this work we focus on the case of Breaker playing randomly and Maker being "clever". The reverse scenario is treated in a separate paper. We determine the sharp threshold bias of classical games played on the edge set of the complete graph , such as connectivity, perfect matching, Hamiltonicity, and minimum degree-1 and -2. In all of these games, the threshold is equal to the trivial upper bound implied by the number of edges needed for Maker to occupy a winning set. Moreover, we show that CleverMaker can not only win against asymptotically optimal bias, but can do so very fast, wasting only logarithmically many moves (while the winning set sizes are linear in n). KW - Positional games KW - Randomized strategy KW - Sharp threshold KW - Fast win KW - Hamiltonicity KW - Connectivity Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00373-016-1753-4 SN - 0911-0119 SN - 1435-5914 VL - 33 SP - 387 EP - 401 PB - Springer CY - Tokyo ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pilz, Tobias A1 - Delgado, José Miguel Martins A1 - Voss, Sebastian A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Cunha Costa, Alexandre A1 - Martins, Eduardo A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil BT - what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model? JF - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences N2 - The semiarid northeast of Brazil is one of the most densely populated dryland regions in the world and recurrently affected by severe droughts. Thus, reliable seasonal forecasts of streamflow and reservoir storage are of high value for water managers. Such forecasts can be generated by applying either hydrological models representing underlying processes or statistical relationships exploiting correlations among meteorological and hydrological variables. This work evaluates and compares the performances of seasonal reservoir storage forecasts derived by a process-based hydrological model and a statistical approach. Driven by observations, both models achieve similar simulation accuracies. In a hindcast experiment, however, the accuracy of estimating regional reservoir storages was considerably lower using the process-based hydrological model, whereas the resolution and reliability of drought event predictions were similar by both approaches. Further investigations regarding the deficiencies of the process-based model revealed a significant influence of antecedent wetness conditions and a higher sensitivity of model prediction performance to rainfall forecast quality. Within the scope of this study, the statistical model proved to be the more straightforward approach for predictions of reservoir level and drought events at regionally and monthly aggregated scales. However, for forecasts at finer scales of space and time or for the investigation of underlying processes, the costly initialisation and application of a process-based model can be worthwhile. Furthermore, the application of innovative data products, such as remote sensing data, and operational model correction methods, like data assimilation, may allow for an enhanced exploitation of the advanced capabilities of process-based hydrological models. KW - Water Availability KW - Uncertainty Processor KW - Forecasting Framework KW - Sediment Transport KW - Reservoir Networks KW - Jaguaribe Basin KW - Climate KW - Precipitation KW - Nordeste KW - Connectivity Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1951-2019 SN - 1027-5606 SN - 1607-7938 VL - 23 SP - 1951 EP - 1971 PB - Copernicus Publications CY - Göttingen ER - TY - GEN A1 - Pilz, Tobias A1 - Delgado, José Miguel Martins A1 - Voss, Sebastian A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Cunha Costa, Alexandre A1 - Martins, Eduardo A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil BT - what is the added value of a process-based hydrological model? T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The semiarid northeast of Brazil is one of the most densely populated dryland regions in the world and recurrently affected by severe droughts. Thus, reliable seasonal forecasts of streamflow and reservoir storage are of high value for water managers. Such forecasts can be generated by applying either hydrological models representing underlying processes or statistical relationships exploiting correlations among meteorological and hydrological variables. This work evaluates and compares the performances of seasonal reservoir storage forecasts derived by a process-based hydrological model and a statistical approach. Driven by observations, both models achieve similar simulation accuracies. In a hindcast experiment, however, the accuracy of estimating regional reservoir storages was considerably lower using the process-based hydrological model, whereas the resolution and reliability of drought event predictions were similar by both approaches. Further investigations regarding the deficiencies of the process-based model revealed a significant influence of antecedent wetness conditions and a higher sensitivity of model prediction performance to rainfall forecast quality. Within the scope of this study, the statistical model proved to be the more straightforward approach for predictions of reservoir level and drought events at regionally and monthly aggregated scales. However, for forecasts at finer scales of space and time or for the investigation of underlying processes, the costly initialisation and application of a process-based model can be worthwhile. Furthermore, the application of innovative data products, such as remote sensing data, and operational model correction methods, like data assimilation, may allow for an enhanced exploitation of the advanced capabilities of process-based hydrological models. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 702 KW - Water Availability KW - Uncertainty Processor KW - Forecasting Framework KW - Sediment Transport KW - Reservoir Networks KW - Jaguaribe Basin KW - Climate KW - Precipitation KW - Nordeste KW - Connectivity Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-427950 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 702 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Holz, Nathalie E. A1 - Buchmann, Arlette F. A1 - Boecker-Schlier, Regina A1 - Blomeyer, Dorothea A1 - Baumeister, Sarah A1 - Wolf, Isabella A1 - Rietschel, Marcella A1 - Witt, Stephanie H. A1 - Plichta, Michael M. A1 - Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas A1 - Banaschewski, Tobias A1 - Brandeis, Daniel A1 - Laucht, Manfred T1 - Role of FKBP5 in emotion processing: results on amygdala activity, connectivity and volume JF - Brain structure & function N2 - Accumulating evidence suggests a role of FKBP5, a co-chaperone regulating the glucocorticoid receptor sensitivity, in the etiology of depression and anxiety disorders. Based on recent findings of altered amygdala activity following childhood adversity, the present study aimed at clarifying the impact of genetic variation in FKBP5 on threat-related neural activity and coupling as well as morphometric alterations in stress-sensitive brain systems. Functional magnetic resonance imaging during an emotional face-matching task was performed in 153 healthy young adults (66 males) from a high-risk community sample followed since birth. Voxel-based morphometry was applied to study structural alterations and DNA was genotyped for FKBP5 rs1360780. Childhood adversity was measured using retrospective self-report (Childhood Trauma Questionnaire) and by a standardized parent interview assessing childhood family adversity. Depression was assessed by the Beck Depression Inventory. There was a main effect of FKBP5 on the left amygdala, with T homozygotes showing the highest activity, largest volume and increased coupling with the left hippocampus and the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC). Moreover, amygdala-OFC coupling proved to be associated with depression in this genotype. In addition, our results support previous evidence of a gene-environment interaction on right amygdala activity with respect to retrospective assessment of childhood adversity, but clarify that this does not generalize to the prospective assessment. These findings indicated that activity in T homozygotes increased with the level of adversity, whereas the opposite pattern emerged in C homozygotes, with CT individuals being intermediate. The present results point to a functional involvement of FKBP5 in intermediate phenotypes associated with emotional processing, suggesting a possible mechanism for this gene in conferring susceptibility to stress-related disorders. KW - FKBP5 KW - Childhood adversity KW - Amygdala KW - fMRI KW - Connectivity KW - Voxel-based morphometry Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00429-014-0729-5 SN - 1863-2653 SN - 1863-2661 VL - 220 IS - 3 SP - 1355 EP - 1368 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - de Araujo, Jose-Carlos A1 - Batalla Villanueva, Ramon J. A1 - Costa, Alexandre Cunha A1 - Delgado, José Miguel Martins A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Förster, Saskia A1 - Guentner, Andreas A1 - Lopez-Tarazon, José Andrés A1 - Mamede, George Leite A1 - Medeiros, Pedro Henrique Augusto A1 - Mueller, Eva A1 - Vericat, Damia T1 - Process-based modelling of erosion, sediment transport and reservoir siltation in mesoscale semi-arid catchments JF - Journal of soils and sediments : protection, risk assessment and remediation N2 - To support scientifically sound water management in dryland environments a modelling system has been developed for the quantitative assessment of water and sediment fluxes in catchments, transport in the river system, and retention in reservoirs. The spatial scale of interest is the mesoscale because this is the scale most relevant for management of water and land resources. This modelling system comprises process-oriented hydrological components tailored for dryland characteristics coupled with components comprising hillslope erosion, sediment transport and reservoir deposition processes. The spatial discretization is hierarchically designed according to a multi-scale concept to account for particular relevant process scales. The non-linear and partly intermittent run-off generation and sediment dynamics are dealt with by accounting for connectivity phenomena at the intersections of landscape compartments. The modelling system has been developed by means of data from nested research catchments in NE-Spain and in NE-Brazil. In the semi-arid NE of Brazil sediment retention along the topography is the main process for sediment retention at all scales, i.e. the sediment delivery is transport limited. This kind of deposition retains roughly 50 to 60 % of eroded sediment, maintaining a similar deposition proportion in all spatial scales investigated. On the other hand, the sediment retained in reservoirs is clearly related to the scale, increasing with catchment area. With increasing area, there are more reservoirs, increasing the possibility of deposition. Furthermore, the area increase also promotes an increase in flow volume, favouring the construction of larger reservoirs, which generally overflow less frequently and retain higher sediment fractions. The second example comprises a highly dynamic Mediterranean catchment in NE-Spain with nested sub-catchments and reveals the full dynamics of hydrological, erosion and deposition features. The run-off modelling performed well with only some overestimation during low-flow periods due to the neglect of water losses along the river. The simulated peaks in sediment flux are reproduced well, while low-flow sediment transport is less well captured, due to the disregard of sediment remobilization in the riverbed during low flow. This combined observation and modelling study deepened the understanding of hydro-sedimentological systems characterized by flashy run-off generation and by erosion and sediment transport pulses through the different landscape compartments. The connectivity between the different landscape compartments plays a very relevant role, regarding both the total mass of water and sediment transport and the transport time through the catchment. KW - Connectivity KW - Deposition KW - Erosion KW - Modelling KW - Sediment transfer KW - Semi-arid Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11368-014-0994-1 SN - 1439-0108 SN - 1614-7480 VL - 14 IS - 12 SP - 2001 EP - 2018 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Medeiros, Pedro Henrique Augusto A1 - de Araujo, Jose Carlos A1 - Mamede, George Leite A1 - Creutzfeldt, Benjamin A1 - Guentner, Andreas A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Connectivity of sediment transport in a semiarid environment: a synthesis for the Upper Jaguaribe Basin, Brazil JF - Journal of soils and sediments : protection, risk assessment and remediation N2 - Hydrosedimentological studies conducted in the semiarid Upper Jaguaribe Basin, Brazil, enabled the identification of the key processes controlling sediment connectivity at different spatial scales (10(0)-10(4) km(2)). Water and sediment fluxes were assessed from discharge, sediment concentrations and reservoir siltation measurements. Additionally, mathematical modelling (WASA-SED model) was used to quantify water and sediment transfer within the watershed. Rainfall erosivity in the study area was moderate (4600 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) year(-1)), whereas runoff depths (16-60 mm year(-1)), and therefore the sediment transport capacity, were low. Consequently, similar to 60 % of the eroded sediment was deposited along the landscape, regardless of the spatial scale. The existing high-density reservoir network (contributing area of 6 km(2) per reservoir) also limits sediment propagation, retaining up to 47 % of the sediment at the large basin scale. The sediment delivery ratio (SDR) decreased with the spatial scale; on average, 41 % of the eroded sediment was yielded from the hillslopes, while for the whole 24,600-km(2) basin, the SDR was reduced to 1 % downstream of a large reservoir (1940-hm(3) capacity). Hydrological behaviour in the Upper Jaguaribe Basin represents a constraint on sediment propagation; low runoff depth is the main feature breaking sediment connectivity, which limits sediment transference from the hillslopes to the drainage system. Surface reservoirs are also important barriers, but their relative importance to sediment retention increases with scale, since larger contributing areas are more suitable for the construction of dams due to higher hydrological potential. KW - Brazil KW - Connectivity KW - Sediment redistribution KW - Semiarid KW - Spatial scale Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11368-014-0988-z SN - 1439-0108 SN - 1614-7480 VL - 14 IS - 12 SP - 1938 EP - 1948 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - May, Felix A1 - Giladi, Itamar A1 - Ristow, Michael A1 - Ziv, Yaron A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Plant functional traits and community assembly along interacting gradients of productivity and fragmentation JF - Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics N2 - Quantifying the association of plant functional traits to environmental gradients is a promising approach for understanding and projecting community responses to land use and climatic changes. Although habitat fragmentation and climate are expected to affect plant communities interactively, there is a lack of empirical studies addressing trait associations to fragmentation in different climatic regimes. In this study, we analyse data on the key functional traits: specific leaf area (SLA), plant height, seed mass and seed number. First, we assess the evidence for the community assembly mechanisms habitat filtering and competition at different spatial scales, using several null-models and a comprehensive set of community-level trait convergence and divergence indices. Second, we analyse the association of community-mean traits with patch area and connectivity along a south-north productivity gradient. We found clear evidence for trait convergence due to habitat filtering. In contrast, the evidence for trait divergence due to competition fundamentally depended on the null-model used. When the null-model controlled for habitat filtering, there was only evidence for trait divergence at the smallest sampling scale (0.25 m x 0.25 m). All traits varied significantly along the S-N productivity gradient. While plant height and SLA were consistently associated with fragmentation, the association of seed mass and seed number with fragmentation changed along the S-N gradient. Our findings indicate trait convergence due to drought stress in the arid sites and due to higher productivity in the mesic sites. The association of plant traits to fragmentation is likely driven by increased colonization ability in small and/or isolated patches (plant height, seed number) or increased persistence ability in isolated patches (seed mass). Our study provides the first empirical test of trait associations with fragmentation along a productivity gradient. We conclude that it is crucial to study the interactive effects of different ecological drivers on plant functional traits. KW - Connectivity KW - Drought-stress KW - Habitat filtering KW - Limiting similarity KW - Null models KW - Plant height KW - Seed mass KW - Seed number KW - Specific leaf area (SLA) Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ppees.2013.08.002 SN - 1433-8319 VL - 15 IS - 6 SP - 304 EP - 318 PB - Elsevier CY - Jena ER - TY - THES A1 - Pusch, Martin T1 - Horizontale und vertikale Konnektivität in Fließgewässern und Seen : ökologische Funktionen und anthropogene Überformung T1 - Horizontal and vertical connectivity in rivers and lakes : ecological functions and anthropogenic transformation N2 - Gewässer werden traditionellerweise als abgeschlossene Ökosysteme gesehen, und insbeson¬dere das Zirkulieren von Wasser und Nährstoffen im Pelagial von Seen wird als Beispiel dafür angeführt. Allerdings wurden in der jüngeren Vergangenheit wichtige Verknüpfungen des Freiwasserkörpers von Gewässern aufgezeigt, die einerseits mit dem Benthal und andererseits mit dem Litoral, der terrestrischen Uferzone und ihrem Einzugsgebiet bestehen. Dadurch hat in den vergangen Jahren die horizontale und vertikale Konnektivität der Gewässerökosysteme erhöhtes wissenschaftliches Interesse auf sich gezogen, und damit auch die ökologischen Funktionen des Gewässergrunds (Benthal) und der Uferzonen (Litoral). Aus der neu beschriebenen Konnektivität innerhalb und zwischen diesen Lebensräumen ergeben sich weitreichende Konsequenzen für unser Bild von der Funktionalität der Gewässer. In der vorliegenden Habilitationsschrift wird am Beispiel von Fließgewässern und Seen des nordostdeutschen Flachlandes eine Reihe von internen und externen funktionalen Verknüpfungen in den horizontalen und vertikalen räumlichen Dimensionen aufgezeigt. Die zugrunde liegenden Untersuchungen umfassten zumeist sowohl abiotische als auch biologische Variablen, und umfassten thematisch, methodisch und hinsichtlich der Untersuchungsgewässer ein breites Spektrum. Dabei wurden in Labor- und Feldexperimenten sowie durch quantitative Feldmes¬sungen ökologischer Schlüsselprozesse wie Nährstoffretention, Kohlenstoffumsatz, extrazellu¬läre Enzymaktivität und Ressourcenweitergabe in Nahrungsnetzen (mittels Stabilisotopen¬methode) untersucht. In Bezug auf Fließgewässer wurden dadurch wesentliche Erkenntnisse hinsichtlich der Wirkung einer durch Konnekticität geprägten Hydromorphologie auf die die aquatische Biodiversität und die benthisch-pelagische Kopplung erbracht, die wiederum einen Schlüsselprozess darstellt für die Retention von in der fließenden Welle transportierten Stoffen, und damit letztlich für die Produktivität eines Flussabschnitts. Das Litoral von Seen wurde in Mitteleuropa jahrzehntelang kaum untersucht, so dass die durchgeführten Untersuchungen zur Gemeinschaftsstruktur, Habitatpräferenzen und Nahrungs¬netzverknüpfungen des eulitoralen Makrozoobenthos grundlegend neue Erkenntnisse erbrach¬ten, die auch unmittelbar in Ansätze zur ökologischen Bewertung von Seeufern gemäß EG-Wasserrahmenrichtlinie eingehen. Es konnte somit gezeigt werden, dass die Intensität sowohl die internen als auch der externen ökologischen Konnektivität durch die Hydrologie und Morphologie der Gewässer sowie durch die Verfügbarkeit von Nährstoffen wesentlich beeinflusst wird, die auf diese Weise vielfach die ökologische Funktionalität der Gewässer prägen. Dabei trägt die vertikale oder horizontale Konnektivität zur Stabilisierung der beteiligten Ökosysteme bei, indem sie den Austausch ermöglicht von Pflanzennährstoffen, von Biomasse sowie von migrierenden Organismen, wodurch Phasen des Ressourcenmangels überbrückt werden. Diese Ergebnisse können im Rahmen der Bewirtschaftung von Gewässern dahingehend genutzt werden, dass die Gewährleistung horizontaler und vertikaler Konnektivität in der Regel mit räumlich komplexeren, diverseren, zeitlich und strukturell resilienteren sowie leistungsfähi¬geren Ökosystemen einhergeht, die somit intensiver und sicherer nachhaltig genutzt werden können. Die Nutzung einer kleinen Auswahl von Ökosystemleistungen der Flüsse und Seen durch den Menschen hat oftmals zu einer starken Reduktion der ökologischen Konnektivität, und in der Folge zu starken Verlusten bei anderen Ökosystemleistungen geführt. Die Ergebnisse der dargestellten Forschungen zeigen auch, dass die Entwicklung und Implementierung von Strategien zum integrierten Management von komplexen sozial-ökologischen Systemen wesentlich unterstützt werden kann, wenn die horizontale und vertikale Konnektivität gezielt entwickelt wird. N2 - Surface waters are seen traditionally as closed ecosystems, and the recirculation of water and nutrients in the pelagic zone of lakes is cited as an example fort his. However, recently important linkages have been demonstrated between the pelagic zone on one side, and the benthic and the littoral zones, the terrestrial shore area and the catchment on the other side. Therby, the horizontal and vertical connectivity of aquatic ecosystems has attracted intense scientific interest, and together with this the ecological functions of the bottom zone (benthic zone) and of the shore zone (littoral zone), too. From this newly described connectivity far-reaching consequences arise for our picture of the functionality of surface waters. In this habilitation thesis a number of internal and external functional linkages are depicted in the horizontal and vertical spatial dimensions, as exemplified by running waters and lakes of the north-east German lowlands. The underlying studies mostly comprised both abiotic and biotic variables, and a broad range of topics, methods and studied surface waters. Thereby, experiments in the lab and the field, as well as quantitative field measurements were used to investigate ecological key processes as nutrient retention, carbon dynamics, extracellular enzyme activity, and resource transfer in food webs (using stabile isotope technique). In respect to running waters this resulted in substantial insights into the effects of a hydromorphology exhibiting intense connectivity on aquatic biodiversity and benthic-pelagic coupling, which represents a key process for the retention of transported matter, and thus for the productivity of a river section. The littoral zone of lakes has hardly been studied in Central Europe for several decades. Thus, the results on community structure, habitat preference and food web linkages of eulittoral macrozoobenthos enabled fundamentally new insights, which can directly be used within approaches for the ecological assessment of lake shores according to the EU Water Framework Directive. Research results show that the development and implementation of strategies for an integrated management of complex social-ecological systems may be substantially underpinned by targeted development of horizontal and vertical connectivity. KW - Limnology KW - Aquatic Ecology KW - Connectivity KW - Lake KW - River KW - Limnologie KW - Gewässerökologie KW - Konnektivität KW - See KW - Fluss Y1 - 2012 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-63713 ER -