TY - JOUR A1 - Geyer, Juliane A1 - Strixner, Lena A1 - Kreft, Stefan A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Ibisch, Pierre L. T1 - Adapting conservation to climate change: a case study on feasibility and implementation in Brandenburg, Germany JF - Regional environmental change N2 - Conservation actions need to account for global climate change and adapt to it. The body of the literature on adaptation options is growing rapidly, but their feasibility and current state of implementation are rarely assessed. We discussed the practicability of adaptation options with conservation managers analysing three fields of action: reducing the vulnerability of conservation management, reducing the vulnerability of conservation targets (i.e. biodiversity) and climate change mitigation. For all options, feasibility, current state of implementation and existing obstacles to implementation were analysed, using the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany, as a case study. Practitioners considered a large number of options useful, most of which have already been implemented at least in part. Those options considered broadly implemented resemble mainly conventional measures of conservation without direct relation to climate change. Managers are facing several obstacles for adapting to climate change, including political reluctance to change, financial and staff shortages in conservation administrations and conflictive EU funding schemes in agriculture. A certain reluctance to act, due to the high degree of uncertainty with regard to climate change scenarios and impacts, is widespread. A lack of knowledge of appropriate methods such as adaptive management often inhibits the implementation of adaptation options in the field of planning and management. Based on the findings for Brandenburg, we generally conclude that it is necessary to focus in particular on options that help to reduce vulnerability of conservation management itself, i.e. those that enhance management effectiveness. For instance, adaptive and proactive risk management can be applied as a no-regrets option, independently from specific climate change scenarios or impacts, strengthening action under uncertainty. KW - Climate change KW - Adaptation options KW - Nature conservation management KW - Vulnerability Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0609-9 SN - 1436-3798 SN - 1436-378X VL - 15 IS - 1 SP - 139 EP - 153 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Caron, Maria Mercedes A1 - De Frenne, P. A1 - Chabrerie, Olivier A1 - Cousins, S. A. O. A1 - De Backer, L. A1 - Decocq, G. A1 - Diekmann, M. A1 - Heinken, Thilo A1 - Kolb, A. A1 - Naaf, T. A1 - Plue, J. A1 - Selvi, F. A1 - Strimbeck, G. R. A1 - Wulf, M. A1 - Verheyen, Kris T1 - Impacts of warming and changes in precipitation frequency on the regeneration of two Acer species JF - Flora : morphology, distribution, functional ecology of plants KW - Seed provenance KW - Germination KW - Climate change KW - Interactive effects Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.flora.2015.05.005 SN - 0367-2530 SN - 1618-0585 VL - 214 SP - 24 EP - 33 PB - Elsevier CY - Jena ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Groeneveld, Jürgen A1 - Johst, Karin A1 - Kawaguchi, So A1 - Meyer, Bettina A1 - Teschke, Mathias A1 - Grimm, Volker T1 - How biological clocks and changing environmental conditions determine local population growth and species distribution in Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba): a conceptual model JF - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog N2 - The Southern Ocean ecosystem is characterized by extreme seasonal changes in environmental factors such as day length, sea ice extent and food availability. The key species Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) has evolved metabolic and behavioural seasonal rhythms to cope with these seasonal changes. We investigate the switch between a physiological less active and active period for adult krill, a rhythm which seems to be controlled by internal biological clocks. These biological clocks can be synchronized by environmental triggers such as day length and food availability. They have evolved for particular environmental regimes to synchronize predictable seasonal environmental changes with important life cycle functions of the species. In a changing environment the time when krill is metabolically active and the time of peak food availability may not overlap if krill's seasonal activity is solely determined by photoperiod (day length). This is especially true for the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean where the spatio-temporal ice cover dynamics are changing substantially with rising average temperatures. We developed an individual-based model for krill to explore the impact of photoperiod and food availability on the growth and demographics of krill. We simulated dynamics of local krill populations (with no movement of krill assumed) along a south-north gradient for different triggers of metabolic activity and different levels of food availability below the ice. We also observed the fate of larval krill which cannot switch to low metabolism and therefore are likely to overwinter under ice. Krill could only occupy the southern end of the gradient, where algae bloom only lasts for a short time, when alternative food supply under the ice was high and metabolic activity was triggered by photoperiod. The northern distribution was limited by lack of overwintering habitat for krill larvae due to short duration of sea ice cover even for high food content under the ice. The variability of the krill's length-frequency distributions varied for different triggers of metabolic activity, but did not depend on the sea ice extent. Our findings suggest a southward shift of krill populations due to reduction in the spatial sea ice extent, which is consistent with field observations. Overall, our results highlight the importance of the explicit consideration of spatio-temporal sea ice dynamics especially for larval krill together with temporal synchronization through internal clocks, triggered by environmental factors (photoperiod and food) in adult krill for the population modelling of krill. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Dynamic energy budget theory KW - Individual based model KW - Southern Ocean KW - Sea ice KW - Climate change KW - Marine ecology Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.02.009 SN - 0304-3800 SN - 1872-7026 VL - 303 SP - 78 EP - 86 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Olonscheck, Mady A1 - Walther, Carsten A1 - Lüdeke, Matthias K. B. A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Feasibility of energy reduction targets under climate change: The case of the residential heating energy sector of the Netherlands JF - Energy N2 - In order to achieve meaningful climate protection targets at the global scale, each country is called to set national energy policies aimed at reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions. By calculating the monthly heating energy demand of dwellings in the Netherlands, our case study country, we contrast the results with the corresponding aspired national targets. Considering different future population scenarios, renovation measures and temperature variations, we show that a near zero energy demand in 2050 could only be reached with very ambitious renovation measures. While the goal of reducing the energy demand of the building sector by 50% until 2030 compared to 1990 seems feasible for most provinces and months in the minimum scenario, it is impossible in our scenario with more pessimistic yet still realistic assumptions regarding future developments. Compared to the current value, the annual renovation rate per province would need to be at least doubled in order to reach the 2030 target independent of reasonable climatic and population changes in the future. Our findings also underline the importance of policy measures as the annual renovation rate is a key influencing factor regarding the reduction of the heating energy demand in dwellings. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. KW - Climate change KW - Heating energy demand KW - Reduction targets KW - Residential building stock KW - Renovation KW - The Netherlands Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.07.080 SN - 0360-5442 SN - 1873-6785 VL - 90 SP - 560 EP - 569 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lemke, Isgard H. A1 - Kolb, Annette A1 - Graae, Bente J. A1 - De Frenne, Pieter A1 - Acharya, Kamal P. A1 - Blandino, Cristina A1 - Brunet, Jorg A1 - Chabrerie, Olivier A1 - Cousins, Sara A. O. A1 - Decocq, Guillaume A1 - Heinken, Thilo A1 - Hermy, Martin A1 - Liira, Jaan A1 - Schmucki, Reto A1 - Shevtsova, Anna A1 - Verheyen, Kris A1 - Diekmann, Martin T1 - Patterns of phenotypic trait variation in two temperate forest herbs along a broad climatic gradient JF - Plant ecology : an international journal N2 - Phenotypic trait variation plays a major role in the response of plants to global environmental change, particularly in species with low migration capabilities and recruitment success. However, little is known about the variation of functional traits within populations and about differences in this variation on larger spatial scales. In a first approach, we therefore related trait expression to climate and local environmental conditions, studying two temperate forest herbs, Milium effusum and Stachys sylvatica, along a similar to 1800-2500 km latitudinal gradient. Within each of 9-10 regions in six European countries, we collected data from six populations of each species and recorded several variables in each region (temperature, precipitation) and population (light availability, soil parameters). For each plant, we measured height, leaf area, specific leaf area, seed mass and the number of seeds and examined environmental effects on within-population trait variation as well as on trait means. Most importantly, trait variation differed both between and within populations. Species, however, differed in their response. Intrapopulation variation in Milium was consistently positively affected by higher mean temperatures and precipitation as well as by more fertile local soil conditions, suggesting that more productive conditions may select for larger phenotypic variation. In Stachys, particularly light availability positively influenced trait variation, whereas local soil conditions had no consistent effects. Generally, our study emphasises that intra-population variation may differ considerably across larger scales-due to phenotypic plasticity and/or underlying genetic diversity-possibly affecting species response to global environmental change. KW - Climate change KW - Global environmental change KW - Milium effusum KW - Phenotypic plasticity KW - Intraspecific variation KW - Stachys sylvatica Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-015-0534-0 SN - 1385-0237 SN - 1573-5052 VL - 216 IS - 11 SP - 1523 EP - 1536 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER -