TY - JOUR A1 - Zückert, Hartmut T1 - Bemerkungen zur Untertanenbelastung beim barocken Schloß- und Klosterbau Y1 - 1997 SN - 0940-4007 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zückert, Hartmut T1 - Vielfalt der Lebensverhältnisse in unmittelbarer Nachbarschaft : die "Gleichzeitigkeit des Ungleichzeitigen" in brandenburgischen Dörfern Y1 - 1997 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zückert, Hartmut T1 - Memmingens Bedeutung im 18. Jahrhundert Y1 - 1997 SN - 3-8062-1315-1 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Ullah, Shahid A1 - Bindi, Dino A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Mikhailova, Natalya T1 - The largest expected earthquake magnitudes in Central Asia BT - statistical inference from an earthquake catalogue with uncertain magnitudes JF - Seismicity, fault rupture and earthquake hazards in slowly deforming regions N2 - The knowledge of the largest expected earthquake magnitude in a region is one of the key issues in probabilistic seismic hazard calculations and the estimation of worst-case scenarios. Earthquake catalogues are the most informative source of information for the inference of earthquake magnitudes. We analysed the earthquake catalogue for Central Asia with respect to the largest expected magnitudes m(T) in a pre-defined time horizon T-f using a recently developed statistical methodology, extended by the explicit probabilistic consideration of magnitude errors. For this aim, we assumed broad error distributions for historical events, whereas the magnitudes of recently recorded instrumental earthquakes had smaller errors. The results indicate high probabilities for the occurrence of large events (M >= 8), even in short time intervals of a few decades. The expected magnitudes relative to the assumed maximum possible magnitude are generally higher for intermediate-depth earthquakes (51-300 km) than for shallow events (0-50 km). For long future time horizons, for example, a few hundred years, earthquakes with M >= 8.5 have to be taken into account, although, apart from the 1889 Chilik earthquake, it is probable that no such event occurred during the observation period of the catalogue. Y1 - 2017 SN - 978-1-86239-745-3 SN - 978-1-86239-964-8 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1144/SP432.3 SN - 0305-8719 VL - 432 SP - 29 EP - 40 PB - The Geological Society CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Holschneider, Matthias A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Zhuang, Jiancang T1 - The largest expected earthquake magnitudes in Japan: The statistical perspective JF - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America N2 - Earthquake catalogs are probably the most informative data source about spatiotemporal seismicity evolution. The catalog quality in one of the most active seismogenic zones in the world, Japan, is excellent, although changes in quality arising, for example, from an evolving network are clearly present. Here, we seek the best estimate for the largest expected earthquake in a given future time interval from a combination of historic and instrumental earthquake catalogs. We extend the technique introduced by Zoller et al. (2013) to estimate the maximum magnitude in a time window of length T-f for earthquake catalogs with varying level of completeness. In particular, we consider the case in which two types of catalogs are available: a historic catalog and an instrumental catalog. This leads to competing interests with respect to the estimation of the two parameters from the Gutenberg-Richter law, the b-value and the event rate lambda above a given lower-magnitude threshold (the a-value). The b-value is estimated most precisely from the frequently occurring small earthquakes; however, the tendency of small events to cluster in aftershocks, swarms, etc. violates the assumption of a Poisson process that is used for the estimation of lambda. We suggest addressing conflict by estimating b solely from instrumental seismicity and using large magnitude events from historic catalogs for the earthquake rate estimation. Applying the method to Japan, there is a probability of about 20% that the maximum expected magnitude during any future time interval of length T-f = 30 years is m >= 9.0. Studies of different subregions in Japan indicates high probabilities for M 8 earthquakes along the Tohoku arc and relatively low probabilities in the Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai region. Finally, for scenarios related to long-time horizons and high-confidence levels, the maximum expected magnitude will be around 10. Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120130103 SN - 0037-1106 SN - 1943-3573 VL - 104 IS - 2 SP - 769 EP - 779 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Holschneider, Matthias A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian T1 - The Maximum Earthquake Magnitude in a Time Horizon: Theory and Case Studies JF - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America N2 - We show how the maximum magnitude within a predefined future time horizon may be estimated from an earthquake catalog within the context of Gutenberg-Richter statistics. The aim is to carry out a rigorous uncertainty assessment, and calculate precise confidence intervals based on an imposed level of confidence a. In detail, we present a model for the estimation of the maximum magnitude to occur in a time interval T-f in the future, given a complete earthquake catalog for a time period T in the past and, if available, paleoseismic events. For this goal, we solely assume that earthquakes follow a stationary Poisson process in time with unknown productivity Lambda and obey the Gutenberg-Richter law in magnitude domain with unknown b-value. The random variables. and b are estimated by means of Bayes theorem with noninformative prior distributions. Results based on synthetic catalogs and on retrospective calculations of historic catalogs from the highly active area of Japan and the low-seismicity, but high-risk region lower Rhine embayment (LRE) in Germany indicate that the estimated magnitudes are close to the true values. Finally, we discuss whether the techniques can be extended to meet the safety requirements for critical facilities such as nuclear power plants. For this aim, the maximum magnitude for all times has to be considered. In agreement with earlier work, we find that this parameter is not a useful quantity from the viewpoint of statistical inference. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120013 SN - 0037-1106 VL - 103 IS - 2A SP - 860 EP - 875 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Holschneider, Matthias T1 - Reply to “Comment on ‘The Maximum Possible and the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude for Production‐Induced Earthquakes at the Gas Field in Groningen, The Netherlands’ by Gert Zöller and Matthias Holschneider” by Mathias Raschke T2 - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170131 SN - 0037-1106 SN - 1943-3573 VL - 108 IS - 2 SP - 1029 EP - 1030 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Holschneider, Matthias T1 - Induced seismicity: What is the size of the largest expected earthquake? JF - The bulletin of the Seismological Society of America N2 - The injection of fluids is a well-known origin for the triggering of earthquake sequences. The growing number of projects related to enhanced geothermal systems, fracking, and others has led to the question, which maximum earthquake magnitude can be expected as a consequence of fluid injection? This question is addressed from the perspective of statistical analysis. Using basic empirical laws of earthquake statistics, we estimate the magnitude M-T of the maximum expected earthquake in a predefined future time window T-f. A case study of the fluid injection site at Paradox Valley, Colorado, demonstrates that the magnitude m 4.3 of the largest observed earthquake on 27 May 2000 lies very well within the expectation from past seismicity without adjusting any parameters. Vice versa, for a given maximum tolerable earthquake at an injection site, we can constrain the corresponding amount of injected fluids that must not be exceeded within predefined confidence bounds. Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140195 SN - 0037-1106 SN - 1943-3573 VL - 104 IS - 6 SP - 3153 EP - 3158 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Holschneider, Matthias T1 - The Maximum Possible and the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude for Production-Induced Earthquakes at the Gas Field in Groningen, The Netherlands JF - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America N2 - The Groningen gas field serves as a natural laboratory for production-induced earthquakes, because no earthquakes were observed before the beginning of gas production. Increasing gas production rates resulted in growing earthquake activity and eventually in the occurrence of the 2012M(w) 3.6 Huizinge earthquake. At least since this event, a detailed seismic hazard and risk assessment including estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude is considered to be necessary to decide on the future gas production. In this short note, we first apply state-of-the-art methods of mathematical statistics to derive confidence intervals for the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max). Second, we calculate the maximum expected magnitude M-T in the time between 2016 and 2024 for three assumed gas-production scenarios. Using broadly accepted physical assumptions and 90% confidence level, we suggest a value of m(max) 4.4, whereas M-T varies between 3.9 and 4.3, depending on the production scenario. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160220 SN - 0037-1106 SN - 1943-3573 VL - 106 SP - 2917 EP - 2921 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Holschneider, Matthias T1 - The Earthquake History in a Fault Zone Tells Us Almost Nothing about m(max) JF - Seismological research letters N2 - In the present study, we summarize and evaluate the endeavors from recent years to estimate the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max) from observed data. In particular, we use basic and physically motivated assumptions to identify best cases and worst cases in terms of lowest and highest degree of uncertainty of m(max). In a general framework, we demonstrate that earthquake data and earthquake proxy data recorded in a fault zone provide almost no information about m(max) unless reliable and homogeneous data of a long time interval, including several earthquakes with magnitude close to m(max), are available. Even if detailed earthquake information from some centuries including historic and paleoearthquakes are given, only very few, namely the largest events, will contribute at all to the estimation of m(max), and this results in unacceptably high uncertainties. As a consequence, estimators of m(max) in a fault zone, which are based solely on earthquake-related information from this region, have to be dismissed. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0220150176 SN - 0895-0695 SN - 1938-2057 VL - 87 SP - 132 EP - 137 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Tilmann, Frederik A1 - Woith, Heiko A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - Comment on: Wikelski, Martin; Müller, Uschi; Scocco, Paola; Catorci, Andrea; Desinov, Lev V.; Belyaev, Mikhail Y.; Keim, Daniel A.; Pohlmeier, Winfried; Fechteler, Gerhard; Mai, Martin P. : Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring. - Ethology. - 126 (2020), 9. - S. 931 - 941. -ISSN 0179-1613. - eISSN 1439-0310. - doi 10.1111/eth.13078 JF - Ethology N2 - Based on an analysis of continuous monitoring of farm animal behavior in the region of the 2016 M6.6 Norcia earthquake in Italy, Wikelski et al., 2020; (Seismol Res Lett, 89, 2020, 1238) conclude that animal activity can be anticipated with subsequent seismic activity and that this finding might help to design a "short-term earthquake forecasting method." We show that this result is based on an incomplete analysis and misleading interpretations. Applying state-of-the-art methods of statistics, we demonstrate that the proposed anticipatory patterns cannot be distinguished from random patterns, and consequently, the observed anomalies in animal activity do not have any forecasting power. KW - animal behavior KW - earthquake precursor KW - error diagram KW - prediction KW - randomness KW - statistics Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/eth.13105 SN - 0179-1613 SN - 1439-0310 VL - 127 IS - 3 SP - 302 EP - 306 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Kurths, Jürgen T1 - Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical point behavior prior to large earthquakes Y1 - 2001 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Holschneider, Matthias T1 - Recurrence of Large Earthquakes : bayesian inference from catalogs in the presence of magnitude uncertainties N2 - We present a Bayesian method that allows continuous updating the aperiodicity of the recurrence time distribution of large earthquakes based on a catalog with magnitudes above a completeness threshold. The approach uses a recently proposed renewal model for seismicity and allows the inclusion of magnitude uncertainties in a straightforward manner. Errors accounting for grouped magnitudes and random errors are studied and discussed. The results indicate that a stable and realistic value of the aperiodicity can be predicted in an early state of seismicity evolution, even though only a small number of large earthquakes has occurred to date. Furthermore, we demonstrate that magnitude uncertainties can drastically influence the results and can therefore not be neglected. We show how to correct for the bias caused by magnitude errors. For the region of Parkfield we find that the aperiodicity, or the coefficient of variation, is clearly higher than in studies which are solely based on the large earthquakes. Y1 - 2010 UR - http://www.springerlink.com/content/101201 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0078-0 SN - 0033-4553 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Ben-Zion, Yehuda T1 - Large earthquake hazard of the San Jacinto fault zone, CA, from long record of simulated seismicity assimilating the available instrumental and paleoseismic data JF - Pure and applied geophysics N2 - We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m a parts per thousand yen 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquake. KW - Earthquake dynamics KW - Earthquake interaction KW - forecasting KW - prediction KW - Statistical seismology KW - Seismicity and tectonics Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0783-1 SN - 0033-4553 SN - 1420-9136 VL - 171 IS - 11 SP - 2955 EP - 2965 PB - Springer CY - Basel ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zöller, Gert T1 - Comment on "Estimation of Earthquake Hazard Parameters from Incomplete Data Files. Part III. Incorporation of Uncertainty of Earthquake-Occurrence Model" by Andrzej Kijko, Ansie Smit, and Markvard A. Sellevoll T2 - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America N2 - Kijko et al. (2016) present various methods to estimate parameters that are relevant for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment. One of these parameters, although not the most influential, is the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max). I show that the proposed estimation of m(max) is based on an erroneous equation related to a misuse of the estimator in Cooke (1979) and leads to unstable results. So far, reported finite estimations of m(max) arise from data selection, because the estimator in Kijko et al. (2016) diverges with finite probability. This finding is independent of the assumed distribution of earthquake magnitudes. For the specific choice of the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution, I illustrate the problems by deriving explicit equations. Finally, I conclude that point estimators are generally not a suitable approach to constrain m(max). Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160193 SN - 0037-1106 SN - 1943-3573 VL - 107 SP - 1975 EP - 1978 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert T1 - A note on the estimation of the maximum possible earthquake magnitude based on extreme value theory for the Groningen Gas Field JF - The bulletin of the Seismological Society of America : BSSA N2 - Extreme value statistics is a popular and frequently used tool to model the occurrence of large earthquakes. The problem of poor statistics arising from rare events is addressed by taking advantage of the validity of general statistical properties in asymptotic regimes. In this note, I argue that the use of extreme value statistics for the purpose of practically modeling the tail of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes can produce biased and thus misleading results because it is unknown to what degree the tail of the true distribution is sampled by data. Using synthetic data allows to quantify this bias in detail. The implicit assumption that the true M-max is close to the maximum observed magnitude M-max,M-observed restricts the class of the potential models a priori to those with M-max = M-max,M-observed + Delta M with an increment Delta M approximate to 0.5... 1.2. This corresponds to the simple heuristic method suggested by Wheeler (2009) and labeled :M-max equals M-obs plus an increment." The incomplete consideration of the entire model family for the frequency-magnitude distribution neglects, however, the scenario of a large so far unobserved earthquake. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120210307 SN - 0037-1106 SN - 1943-3573 VL - 112 IS - 4 SP - 1825 EP - 1831 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - El Cerito, Calif. ER - TY - THES A1 - Zöller, Gert T1 - Critical states of seismicity : modeling and data analysis T1 - Kritische Zustände seismischer Dynamik : Modellierung und Datenanalyse N2 - The occurrence of earthquakes is characterized by a high degree of spatiotemporal complexity. Although numerous patterns, e.g. fore- and aftershock sequences, are well-known, the underlying mechanisms are not observable and thus not understood. Because the recurrence times of large earthquakes are usually decades or centuries, the number of such events in corresponding data sets is too small to draw conclusions with reasonable statistical significance. Therefore, the present study combines both, numerical modeling and analysis of real data in order to unveil the relationships between physical mechanisms and observational quantities. The key hypothesis is the validity of the so-called "critical point concept" for earthquakes, which assumes large earthquakes to occur as phase transitions in a spatially extended many-particle system, similar to percolation models. New concepts are developed to detect critical states in simulated and in natural data sets. The results indicate that important features of seismicity like the frequency-size distribution and the temporal clustering of earthquakes depend on frictional and structural fault parameters. In particular, the degree of quenched spatial disorder (the "roughness") of a fault zone determines whether large earthquakes occur quasiperiodically or more clustered. This illustrates the power of numerical models in order to identify regions in parameter space, which are relevant for natural seismicity. The critical point concept is verified for both, synthetic and natural seismicity, in terms of a critical state which precedes a large earthquake: a gradual roughening of the (unobservable) stress field leads to a scale-free (observable) frequency-size distribution. Furthermore, the growth of the spatial correlation length and the acceleration of the seismic energy release prior to large events is found. The predictive power of these precursors is, however, limited. Instead of forecasting time, location, and magnitude of individual events, a contribution to a broad multiparameter approach is encouraging. N2 - Das Auftreten von Erdbeben zeichnet sich durch eine hohe raumzeitliche Komplexität aus. Obwohl zahlreiche Muster, wie Vor- und Nachbeben bekannt sind, weiß man wenig über die zugrundeliegenden Mechanismen, da diese sich direkter Beobachtung entziehen. Die Zeit zwischen zwei starken Erdbeben in einer seismisch aktiven Region beträgt Jahrzehnte bis Jahrhunderte. Folglich ist die Anzahl solcher Ereignisse in einem Datensatz gering und es ist kaum möglich, allein aus Beobachtungsdaten statistisch signifikante Aussagen über deren Eigenschaften abzuleiten. Die vorliegende Arbeit nutzt daher numerische Modellierungen einer Verwerfungszone in Verbindung mit Datenanalyse, um die Beziehung zwischen physikalischen Mechanismen und beobachteter Seismizität zu studieren. Die zentrale Hypothese ist die Gültigkeit des sogenannten "kritischen Punkt Konzeptes" für Seismizität, d.h. starke Erdbeben werden als Phasenübergänge in einem räumlich ausgedehnten Vielteilchensystem betrachtet, ähnlich wie in Modellen aus der statistischen Physik (z.B. Perkolationsmodelle). Es werden praktische Konzepte entwickelt, die es ermöglichen, kritische Zustände in simulierten und in beobachteten Daten sichtbar zu machen. Die Resultate zeigen, dass wesentliche Eigenschaften von Seismizität, etwa die Magnitudenverteilung und das raumzeitliche Clustern von Erdbeben, durch Reibungs- und Bruchparameter bestimmt werden. Insbesondere der Grad räumlicher Unordnung (die "Rauhheit") einer Verwerfungszone hat Einfluss darauf, ob starke Erdbeben quasiperiodisch oder eher zufällig auftreten. Dieser Befund zeigt auf, wie numerische Modelle genutzt werden können, um den Parameterraum für reale Verwerfungen einzugrenzen. Das kritische Punkt Konzept kann in synthetischer und in beobachteter Seismizität verifiziert werden. Dies artikuliert sich auch in Vorläuferphänomenen vor großen Erdbeben: Die Aufrauhung des (unbeobachtbaren) Spannungsfeldes führt zu einer Skalenfreiheit der (beobachtbaren) Größenverteilung; die räumliche Korrelationslänge wächst und die seismische Energiefreisetzung wird beschleunigt. Ein starkes Erdbeben kann in einem zusammenhängenden Bruch oder in einem unterbrochenen Bruch (Vorbeben und Hauptbeben) stattfinden. Die beobachtbaren Vorläufer besitzen eine begrenzte Prognosekraft für die Auftretenswahrscheinlichkeit starker Erdbeben - eine präzise Vorhersage von Ort, Zeit, und Stärke eines nahenden Erdbebens ist allerdings nicht möglich. Die genannten Parameter erscheinen eher vielversprechend als Beitrag zu einem umfassenden Multiparameteransatz für eine verbesserte zeitabhängige Gefährdungsabschätzung. KW - Seismizität KW - Erdbebenvorhersage KW - statistische Physik KW - mathematische Modellierung KW - Datenanalyse KW - seismicity KW - earthquake prediction KW - statistical physics KW - mathematical modeling KW - data analysis Y1 - 2005 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-7427 ER - TY - THES A1 - Zöller, Gert T1 - Analyse raumzeitlicher Muster in Erdbebendaten N2 - Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Charakterisierung von Seismizität anhand von Erdbebenkatalogen. Es werden neue Verfahren der Datenanalyse entwickelt, die Aufschluss darüber geben sollen, ob der seismischen Dynamik ein stochastischer oder ein deterministischer Prozess zugrunde liegt und was daraus für die Vorhersagbarkeit starker Erdbeben folgt. Es wird gezeigt, dass seismisch aktive Regionen häufig durch nichtlinearen Determinismus gekennzeichent sind. Dies schließt zumindest die Möglichkeit einer Kurzzeitvorhersage ein. Das Auftreten seismischer Ruhe wird häufig als Vorläuferphaenomen für starke Erdbeben gedeutet. Es wird eine neue Methode präsentiert, die eine systematische raumzeitliche Kartierung seismischer Ruhephasen ermöglicht. Die statistische Signifikanz wird mit Hilfe des Konzeptes der Ersatzdaten bestimmt. Als Resultat erhält man deutliche Korrelationen zwischen seismischen Ruheperioden und starken Erdbeben. Gleichwohl ist die Signifikanz dafür nicht hoch genug, um eine Vorhersage im Sinne einer Aussage über den Ort, die Zeit und die Stärke eines zu erwartenden Hauptbebens zu ermöglichen. KW - Erdbeben KW - nichtlineare Dynamik Y1 - 1999 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-0000122 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert T1 - A statistical model for earthquake recurrence based on the assimilation of paleoseismicity, historic seismicity, and instrumental seismicity JF - Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth N2 - Paleoearthquakes and historic earthquakes are the most important source of information for the estimation of long-term earthquake recurrence intervals in fault zones, because corresponding sequences cover more than one seismic cycle. However, these events are often rare, dating uncertainties are enormous, and missing or misinterpreted events lead to additional problems. In the present study, I assume that the time to the next major earthquake depends on the rate of small and intermediate events between the large ones in terms of a clock change model. Mathematically, this leads to a Brownian passage time distribution for recurrence intervals. I take advantage of an earlier finding that under certain assumptions the aperiodicity of this distribution can be related to the Gutenberg-Richter b value, which can be estimated easily from instrumental seismicity in the region under consideration. In this way, both parameters of the Brownian passage time distribution can be attributed with accessible seismological quantities. This allows to reduce the uncertainties in the estimation of the mean recurrence interval, especially for short paleoearthquake sequences and high dating errors. Using a Bayesian framework for parameter estimation results in a statistical model for earthquake recurrence intervals that assimilates in a simple way paleoearthquake sequences and instrumental data. I present illustrative case studies from Southern California and compare the method with the commonly used approach of exponentially distributed recurrence times based on a stationary Poisson process. KW - statistical seismology KW - paleoearthquakes KW - stochastic models KW - seismic hazard Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JB015099 SN - 2169-9313 SN - 2169-9356 VL - 123 IS - 6 SP - 4906 EP - 4921 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert T1 - Convergence of the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes - maybe in 200 years JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - I study the ability to estimate the tail of the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes. While power-law scaling for small earthquakes is accepted by support of data, the tail remains speculative. In a recent study, Bell et al. (2013) claim that the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes converges to a tapered Pareto distribution. I show that this finding results from data fitting errors, namely from the biased maximum likelihood estimation of the corner magnitude theta in strongly undersampled models. In particular, the estimation of theta depends solely on the few largest events in the catalog. Taking this into account, I compare various state-of-the-art models for the global frequency-magnitude distribution. After discarding undersampled models, the remaining ones, including the unbounded Gutenberg-Richter distribution, perform all equally well and are, therefore, indistinguishable. Convergence to a specific distribution, if it ever takes place, requires about 200 years homogeneous recording of global seismicity, at least. KW - statistical seismology Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50779 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 40 IS - 15 SP - 3873 EP - 3877 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - THES A1 - Zölch, Martina T1 - Aktivitäten der Handlungsverschränkung : Theorie und Praxis der Werkstattsteuerung in der gruppenorientierten Fertigung Y1 - 1997 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zór, K. A1 - Heiskanen, A. A1 - Caviglia, Claudia A1 - Vergani, M. A1 - Landini, E. A1 - Shah, F. A1 - Carminati, Marco A1 - Martínez-Serrano, A. A1 - Ramos Moreno, T. A1 - Kokaia, M. A1 - Benayahu, Dafna A1 - Keresztes, Zs. A1 - Papkovsky, D. A1 - Wollenberger, Ursula A1 - Svendsen, W. E. A1 - Dimaki, M. A1 - Ferrari, G. A1 - Raiteri, R. A1 - Sampietro, M. A1 - Dufva, M. A1 - Emnéus, J. T1 - A compact multifunctional microfluidic platform for exploring cellular dynamics in real-time using electrochemical detection N2 - Downscaling of microfluidic cell culture and detection devices for electrochemical monitoring has mostly focused on miniaturization of the microfluidic chips which are often designed for specific applications and therefore lack functional flexibility. We present a compact microfluidic cell culture and electrochemical analysis platform with in-built fluid handling and detection, enabling complete cell based assays comprising on-line electrode cleaning, sterilization, surface functionalization, cell seeding, cultivation and electrochemical real-time monitoring of cellular dynamics. To demonstrate the versatility and multifunctionality of the platform, we explored amperometric monitoring of intracellular redox activity in yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) and detection of exocytotically released dopamine from rat pheochromocytoma cells (PC12). Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy was used in both applications for monitoring cell sedimentation and adhesion as well as proliferation in the case of PC12 cells. The influence of flow rate on the signal amplitude in the detection of redox metabolism as well as the effect of mechanical stimulation on dopamine release were demonstrated using the programmable fluid handling capability. The here presented platform is aimed at applications utilizing cell based assays, ranging from e.g. monitoring of drug effects in pharmacological studies, characterization of neural stem cell differentiation, and screening of genetically modified microorganisms to environmental monitoring. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 289 Y1 - 2014 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-99492 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zähle, Henryk T1 - Space-time regularity of catalytic super-Brownian motion N2 - The paper studies catalytic super-Brownian motion on the real line, where the branching rate is controlled by a catalyst. D. A. Dawson, K. Fleischmann and S. Roelly showed, for a broad class of catalysts, that, as for constant branching, the processes are absolutely continuous measures. This paper considers a class of catalysts, called moderate, which must satisfy a uniform boundedness condition and a condition controlling the degree of singularity---essentially that the mass of catalyst in small balls should (uniformly) be of order r^a, where a>0. The main result of this paper shows that for this class of catalysts there is a continuous density field for the process. Moreover the density is the unique solution (in law) of an appropriate SPDE. Y1 - 2005 UR - http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0025-584X/ ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zähle, Henryk T1 - Heat equation with strongly inhomogeneous noise N2 - The author considers the heat equation in dimension one with singular drift and inhomogeneous space-time white noise. In particular, the quadratic variation measure of the white noise is not required to be absolutely continuous w.r.t. the Lebesgue measure, neither in space nor in time. Under some assumptions the author gives statements on strong and weak existence as well as strong and weak uniqueness of continuous solutions. Y1 - 2004 UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03044149 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zyla, Benjamin T1 - Multilateralism à la Carte? : The Bush II administration and US foreign policy N2 - The use of unilateral force under George W. Bush is not a new phenomenon in US foreign policy. As the author argues, it is merely a continuation of Bill Clinton’s foreign policy and is deeply rooted in both the foreign policy traditions of Jacksonianism and Wilsonianism. The analysis concludes that Clinton used unilateralist foreign policy with a 'smile' whereas the Bush administration uses it with an attitude. N2 - Die unilaterale Außenpolitik unter George W. Bush ist kein neues Phänomen der US-Diplomatie. Dem Autor zufolge ist sie vielmehr eine Fortführung der Politik der Clinton-Regierung und hat ihre Wurzeln in den Traditionen eines Andrew Jackson und Woodrow Wilson. Clinton vermochte jedoch seine unilaterale Politik mit einem "Lächeln" zu verkaufen, wohingegen die Art und Weise der Bush-Administration stets Irritationen hervorrief. KW - US-Außenpolitik KW - George W. Bush KW - Unilateralismus KW - US foreign policy KW - George W. Bush KW - unilateralism Y1 - 2007 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-13439 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zyla, Benjamin T1 - Außenpolitisches Selbstverständnis JF - WeltTrends-Papiere KW - Außenpolitik KW - Interessen KW - Deutschland KW - foreign Policy KW - national interests KW - Germany Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-62791 SN - 1864-0656 IS - 20 SP - 38 EP - 41 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zykov, Vladimir A1 - Bordyugov, Grigory A1 - Lentz, Hartmut A1 - Engel, Harald T1 - Hysteresis phenomenon in the dynamics of spiral waves rotating around a hole N2 - Hysteresis in the pinning-depinning transitions of spiral waves rotating around a hole in a circular shaped two- dimensional excitable medium is studied both by use of the continuation software AUTO and by direct numerical integration of the reaction-diffusion equations for the FitzHugh-Nagumo model. In order to clarify the role of different factors in this phenomenon, a kinematical description is applied. It is found that the hysteresis phenomenon computed for the reaction-diffusion model can be reproduced qualitatively only when a nonlinear eikonal equation (i.e. velocity- curvature relationship) is assumed. However, to obtain quantitative agreement, the dispersion relation has to be taken into account. Y1 - 2010 UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01672789 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2009.07.018 SN - 0167-2789 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zwierlein, Cornel T1 - "Militär und Gesellschaft im Europa der Neuzeit" (13. bis 17. September 2004 Trient) JF - Militär und Gesellschaft in der frühen Neuzeit Y1 - 2004 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-20466 SN - 1861-910X SN - 1617-9722 VL - 8 IS - 2 SP - 194 EP - 197 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zwieback, Simon A1 - Kokelj, Steven V. A1 - Günther, Frank A1 - Boike, Julia A1 - Grosse, Guido A1 - Hajnsek, Irena T1 - Sub-seasonal thaw slump mass wasting is not consistently energy limited at the landscape scale JF - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Predicting future thaw slump activity requires a sound understanding of the atmospheric drivers and geomorphic controls on mass wasting across a range of timescales. On sub-seasonal timescales, sparse measurements indicate that mass wasting at active slumps is often limited by the energy available for melting ground ice, but other factors such as rainfall or the formation of an insulating veneer may also be relevant. To study the sub-seasonal drivers, we derive topographic changes from single-pass radar interferometric data acquired by the TanDEM-X satellites. The estimated elevation changes at 12m resolution complement the commonly observed planimetric retreat rates by providing information on volume losses. Their high vertical precision (around 30 cm), frequent observations (11 days) and large coverage (5000 km(2)) allow us to track mass wasting as drivers such as the available energy change during the summer of 2015 in two study regions. We find that thaw slumps in the Tuktoyaktuk coastlands, Canada, are not energy limited in June, as they undergo limited mass wasting (height loss of around 0 cm day 1) despite the ample available energy, suggesting the widespread presence of early season insulating snow or debris veneer. Later in summer, height losses generally increase (around 3 cm day 1), but they do so in distinct ways. For many slumps, mass wasting tracks the available energy, a temporal pattern that is also observed at coastal yedoma cliffs on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Russia. However, the other two common temporal trajectories are asynchronous with the available energy, as they track strong precipitation events or show a sudden speed-up in late August respectively. The observed temporal patterns are poorly related to slump characteristics like the headwall height. The contrasting temporal behaviour of nearby thaw slumps highlights the importance of complex local and temporally varying controls on mass wasting. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-549-2018 SN - 1994-0416 SN - 1994-0424 VL - 12 IS - 2 SP - 549 EP - 564 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zwieback, Simon A1 - Kokelj, Steven V. A1 - Günther, Frank A1 - Boike, Julia A1 - Grosse, Guido A1 - Hajnsek, Irena T1 - Sub-seasonal thaw slump mass wasting is not consistently energy limited at the landscape scale T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Predicting future thaw slump activity requires a sound understanding of the atmospheric drivers and geomorphic controls on mass wasting across a range of timescales. On sub-seasonal timescales, sparse measurements indicate that mass wasting at active slumps is often limited by the energy available for melting ground ice, but other factors such as rainfall or the formation of an insulating veneer may also be relevant. To study the sub-seasonal drivers, we derive topographic changes from single-pass radar interferometric data acquired by the TanDEM-X satellites. The estimated elevation changes at 12m resolution complement the commonly observed planimetric retreat rates by providing information on volume losses. Their high vertical precision (around 30 cm), frequent observations (11 days) and large coverage (5000 km(2)) allow us to track mass wasting as drivers such as the available energy change during the summer of 2015 in two study regions. We find that thaw slumps in the Tuktoyaktuk coastlands, Canada, are not energy limited in June, as they undergo limited mass wasting (height loss of around 0 cm day 1) despite the ample available energy, suggesting the widespread presence of early season insulating snow or debris veneer. Later in summer, height losses generally increase (around 3 cm day 1), but they do so in distinct ways. For many slumps, mass wasting tracks the available energy, a temporal pattern that is also observed at coastal yedoma cliffs on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Russia. However, the other two common temporal trajectories are asynchronous with the available energy, as they track strong precipitation events or show a sudden speed-up in late August respectively. The observed temporal patterns are poorly related to slump characteristics like the headwall height. The contrasting temporal behaviour of nearby thaw slumps highlights the importance of complex local and temporally varying controls on mass wasting. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 926 KW - ground-ice KW - Tandem-X KW - Northeast Siberia KW - thermal regime KW - Peel Plateau KW - permafrost KW - erosion KW - Island KW - delta KW - yedoma Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-445688 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 926 SP - 549 EP - 564 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zwickel, Theresa A1 - Kahl, Sandra M. A1 - Rychlik, Michael A1 - Müller, Marina E. H. T1 - Chemotaxonomy of Mycotoxigenic Small-Spored Alternaria Fungi BT - Do Multitoxin Mixtures Act as an Indicator for Species Differentiation? JF - Frontiers in microbiology N2 - Necrotrophic as well as saprophytic small-spored Altemaria (A.) species are annually responsible for major losses of agricultural products, such as cereal crops, associated with the contamination of food and feedstuff with potential health-endangering Altemaria toxins. Knowledge of the metabolic capabilities of different species-groups to form mycotoxins is of importance for a reliable risk assessment. 93 Altemaria strains belonging to the four species groups Alternaria tenuissima, A. arborescens, A. altemata, and A. infectoria were isolated from winter wheat kernels harvested from fields in Germany and Russia and incubated under equal conditions. Chemical analysis by means of an HPLC-MS/MS multi-Alternaria-toxin-method showed that 95% of all strains were able to form at least one of the targeted 17 non-host specific Altemaria toxins. Simultaneous production of up to 15 (modified) Altemaria toxins by members of the A. tenuissima, A. arborescens, A. altemata species-groups and up to seven toxins by A. infectoria strains was demonstrated. Overall tenuazonic acid was the most extensively formed mycotoxin followed by alternariol and alternariol mono methylether, whereas altertoxin I was the most frequently detected toxin. Sulfoconjugated modifications of alternariol, alternariol mono methylether, altenuisol and altenuene were frequently determined. Unknown perylene quinone derivatives were additionally detected. Strains of the species-group A. infectoria could be segregated from strains of the other three species-groups due to significantly lower toxin levels and the specific production of infectopyrone. Apart from infectopyrone, alterperylenol was also frequently produced by 95% of the A. infectoria strains. Neither by the concentration nor by the composition of the targeted Altemaria toxins a differentiation between the species-groups A. altemata, A. tenuissima and A. arborescens was possible. KW - small-spored Alternaria fungi KW - Alternaria species-groups KW - Alternaria mycotoxins KW - chemotaxonomy KW - secondary metabolite profiling KW - LC-MS/MS KW - wheat KW - perylene quinone derivatives Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2018.01368 SN - 1664-302X VL - 9 PB - Frontiers Research Foundation CY - Lausanne ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zwickel, Theresa A1 - Kahl, Sandra M. A1 - Rychlik, Michael A1 - Müller, Marina E. H. T1 - Chemotaxonomy of mycotoxigenic small-spored Alternaria fungi BT - do multitoxin mixtures act as an indicator for species differentiation? T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Necrotrophic as well as saprophytic small-spored Altemaria (A.) species are annually responsible for major losses of agricultural products, such as cereal crops, associated with the contamination of food and feedstuff with potential health-endangering Altemaria toxins. Knowledge of the metabolic capabilities of different species-groups to form mycotoxins is of importance for a reliable risk assessment. 93 Altemaria strains belonging to the four species groups Alternaria tenuissima, A. arborescens, A. altemata, and A. infectoria were isolated from winter wheat kernels harvested from fields in Germany and Russia and incubated under equal conditions. Chemical analysis by means of an HPLC-MS/MS multi-Alternaria-toxin-method showed that 95% of all strains were able to form at least one of the targeted 17 non-host specific Altemaria toxins. Simultaneous production of up to 15 (modified) Altemaria toxins by members of the A. tenuissima, A. arborescens, A. altemata species-groups and up to seven toxins by A. infectoria strains was demonstrated. Overall tenuazonic acid was the most extensively formed mycotoxin followed by alternariol and alternariol mono methylether, whereas altertoxin I was the most frequently detected toxin. Sulfoconjugated modifications of alternariol, alternariol mono methylether, altenuisol and altenuene were frequently determined. Unknown perylene quinone derivatives were additionally detected. Strains of the species-group A. infectoria could be segregated from strains of the other three species-groups due to significantly lower toxin levels and the specific production of infectopyrone. Apart from infectopyrone, alterperylenol was also frequently produced by 95% of the A. infectoria strains. Neither by the concentration nor by the composition of the targeted Altemaria toxins a differentiation between the species-groups A. altemata, A. tenuissima and A. arborescens was possible. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 696 KW - small-spored Alternaria fungi KW - Alternaria species-groups KW - Alternaria mycotoxins KW - chemotaxonomy KW - secondary metabolite profiling KW - LC-MS/MS KW - wheat KW - perylene quinone derivatives Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-426623 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 696 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zwickel, Theresa A1 - Kahl, Sandra M. A1 - Klaffke, Horst A1 - Rychlik, Michael A1 - Müller, Marina E. H. T1 - Spotlight on the Underdogs-An Analysis of Underrepresented Alternaria Mycotoxins Formed Depending on Varying Substrate, Time and Temperature Conditions JF - Toxins N2 - Alternaria (A.) is a genus of widespread fungi capable of producing numerous, possibly health-endangering Alternaria toxins (ATs), which are usually not the focus of attention. The formation of ATs depends on the species and complex interactions of various environmental factors and is not fully understood. In this study the influence of temperature (7 degrees C, 25 degrees C), substrate (rice, wheat kernels) and incubation time (4, 7, and 14 days) on the production of thirteen ATs and three sulfoconjugated ATs by three different Alternaria isolates from the species groups A. tenuissima and A. infectoria was determined. High-performance liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry was used for quantification. Under nearly all conditions, tenuazonic acid was the most extensively produced toxin. At 25 degrees C and with increasing incubation time all toxins were formed in high amounts by the two A. tenuissima strains on both substrates with comparable mycotoxin profiles. However, for some of the toxins, stagnation or a decrease in production was observed from day 7 to 14. As opposed to the A. tenuissima strains, the A. infectoria strain only produced low amounts of ATs, but high concentrations of stemphyltoxin III. The results provide an essential insight into the quantitative in vitro AT formation under different environmental conditions, potentially transferable to different field and storage conditions. KW - Alternaria infectoria KW - A. tenuissima KW - mycotoxin profile KW - wheat KW - rice KW - Alternaria toxin sulfates KW - modified Alternaria toxins KW - altertoxins KW - altenuic acid KW - HPLC-MS/MS Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/toxins8110344 SN - 2072-6651 VL - 8 SP - 570 EP - 583 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zwickel, Theresa A1 - Kahl, Sandra M. A1 - Klaffke, Horst A1 - Rychlik, Michael A1 - Müller, Marina E. H. T1 - Spotlight on the underdogs BT - an analysis of underrepresented alternaria mycotoxins formed depending on varying substrate, time and temperature conditions N2 - Alternaria (A.) is a genus of widespread fungi capable of producing numerous, possibly health-endangering Alternaria toxins (ATs), which are usually not the focus of attention. The formation of ATs depends on the species and complex interactions of various environmental factors and is not fully understood. In this study the influence of temperature (7 °C, 25 °C), substrate (rice, wheat kernels) and incubation time (4, 7, and 14 days) on the production of thirteen ATs and three sulfoconjugated ATs by three different Alternaria isolates from the species groups A. tenuissima and A. infectoria was determined. High-performance liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry was used for quantification. Under nearly all conditions, tenuazonic acid was the most extensively produced toxin. At 25 °C and with increasing incubation time all toxins were formed in high amounts by the two A. tenuissima strains on both substrates with comparable mycotoxin profiles. However, for some of the toxins, stagnation or a decrease in production was observed from day 7 to 14. As opposed to the A. tenuissima strains, the A. infectoria strain only produced low amounts of ATs, but high concentrations of stemphyltoxin III. The results provide an essential insight into the quantitative in vitro AT formation under different environmental conditions, potentially transferable to different field and storage conditions T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 353 KW - Alternaria infectoria KW - A. tenuissima KW - mycotoxin profile KW - wheat KW - rice KW - Alternaria toxin sulfates KW - modified Alternaria toxins KW - altertoxins KW - altenuic acid KW - HPLC-MS/MS Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400438 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zwaag, Jelle A1 - Horst, Rob ter A1 - Blaženović, Ivana A1 - Stößel, Daniel A1 - Ratter, Jacqueline A1 - Worseck, Josephine M. A1 - Schauer, Nicolas A1 - Stienstra, Rinke A1 - Netea, Mihai G. A1 - Jahn, Dieter A1 - Pickkers, Peter A1 - Kox, Matthijs T1 - Involvement of lactate and pyruvate in the anti-inflammatory effects exerted by voluntary activation of the sympathetic nervous system T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - We recently demonstrated that the sympathetic nervous system can be voluntarily activated following a training program consisting of cold exposure, breathing exercises, and meditation. This resulted in profound attenuation of the systemic inflammatory response elicited by lipopolysaccharide (LPS) administration. Herein, we assessed whether this training program affects the plasma metabolome and if these changes are linked to the immunomodulatory effects observed. A total of 224 metabolites were identified in plasma obtained from 24 healthy male volunteers at six timepoints, of which 98 were significantly altered following LPS administration. Effects of the training program were most prominent shortly after initiation of the acquired breathing exercises but prior to LPS administration, and point towards increased activation of the Cori cycle. Elevated concentrations of lactate and pyruvate in trained individuals correlated with enhanced levels of anti-inflammatory interleukin (IL)-10. In vitro validation experiments revealed that co-incubation with lactate and pyruvate enhances IL-10 production and attenuates the release of pro-inflammatory IL-1 beta and IL-6 by LPS-stimulated leukocytes. Our results demonstrate that practicing the breathing exercises acquired during the training program results in increased activity of the Cori cycle. Furthermore, this work uncovers an important role of lactate and pyruvate in the anti-inflammatory phenotype observed in trained subjects. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1413 KW - metabolomics KW - LPS KW - endotoxin KW - pyruvate KW - lactate KW - cytokines KW - inflammation KW - human endotoxemia KW - cori cycle KW - warburg effect Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517784 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 4 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zwaag, Jelle A1 - Horst, Rob ter A1 - Blaženović, Ivana A1 - Stößel, Daniel A1 - Ratter, Jacqueline A1 - Worseck, Josephine M. A1 - Schauer, Nicolas A1 - Stienstra, Rinke A1 - Netea, Mihai G. A1 - Jahn, Dieter A1 - Pickkers, Peter A1 - Kox, Matthijs T1 - Involvement of lactate and pyruvate in the anti-inflammatory effects exerted by voluntary activation of the sympathetic nervous system JF - Metabolites N2 - We recently demonstrated that the sympathetic nervous system can be voluntarily activated following a training program consisting of cold exposure, breathing exercises, and meditation. This resulted in profound attenuation of the systemic inflammatory response elicited by lipopolysaccharide (LPS) administration. Herein, we assessed whether this training program affects the plasma metabolome and if these changes are linked to the immunomodulatory effects observed. A total of 224 metabolites were identified in plasma obtained from 24 healthy male volunteers at six timepoints, of which 98 were significantly altered following LPS administration. Effects of the training program were most prominent shortly after initiation of the acquired breathing exercises but prior to LPS administration, and point towards increased activation of the Cori cycle. Elevated concentrations of lactate and pyruvate in trained individuals correlated with enhanced levels of anti-inflammatory interleukin (IL)-10. In vitro validation experiments revealed that co-incubation with lactate and pyruvate enhances IL-10 production and attenuates the release of pro-inflammatory IL-1 beta and IL-6 by LPS-stimulated leukocytes. Our results demonstrate that practicing the breathing exercises acquired during the training program results in increased activity of the Cori cycle. Furthermore, this work uncovers an important role of lactate and pyruvate in the anti-inflammatory phenotype observed in trained subjects. KW - metabolomics KW - LPS KW - endotoxin KW - pyruvate KW - lactate KW - cytokines KW - inflammation KW - human endotoxemia KW - cori cycle KW - warburg effect Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/metabo10040148 SN - 2218-1989 VL - 10 IS - 4 SP - 1 EP - 18 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zuur, Abraham T. A1 - Lundbye-Jensen, Jesper A1 - Leukel, Christan A1 - Taube, Wolfgang A1 - Grey, Michael J. A1 - Gollhofer, Albert A1 - Nielsen, Jens Bo A1 - Gruber, Markus T1 - Contribution of afferent feedback and descending drive to human hopping N2 - During hopping an early burst can be observed in the EMG from the soleus muscle starting about 45 ms after touch-down. It may be speculated that this early EMG burst is a stretch reflex response superimposed on activity from a supra-spinal origin. We hypothesised that if a stretch reflex indeed contributes to the early EMG burst, then advancing or delaying the touch-down without the subject's knowledge should similarly advance or delay the burst. This was indeed the case when touch-down was advanced or delayed by shifting the height of a programmable platform up or down between two hops and this resulted in a correspondent shift of the early EMG burst. Our second hypothesis was that the motor cortex contributes to the first EMG burst during hopping. If so, inhibition of the motor cortex would reduce the magnitude of the burst. By applying a low-intensity magnetic stimulus it was possible to inhibit the motor cortex and this resulted in a suppression of the early EMG burst. These results suggest that sensory feedback and descending drive from the motor cortex are integrated to drive the motor neuron pool during the early EMG burst in hopping. Thus, simple reflexes work in concert with higher order structures to produce this repetitive movement. Y1 - 2010 UR - http://jp.physoc.org/ U6 - https://doi.org/10.1113/jphysiol.2009.182709 SN - 0022-3751 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zurnic, Irena A1 - Hütter, Sylvia A1 - Rzeha, Ute A1 - Stanke, Nicole A1 - Reh, Juliane A1 - Müllers, Erik A1 - Hamann, Martin V. A1 - Kern, Tobias A1 - Gerresheim, Gesche K. A1 - Lindel, Fabian A1 - Serrao, Erik A1 - Lesbats, Paul A1 - Engelman, Alan N. A1 - Cherepanov, Peter A1 - Lindemann, Dirk T1 - Interactions of prototype foamy virus capsids with host cell polo-like kinases are important for efficient viral DNA integration T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Unlike for other retroviruses, only a few host cell factors that aid the replication of foamy viruses (FVs) via interaction with viral structural components are known. Using a yeast-two-hybrid (Y2H) screen with prototype FV (PFV) Gag protein as bait we identified human polo-like kinase 2 (hPLK2), a member of cell cycle regulatory kinases, as a new interactor of PFV capsids. Further Y2H studies confirmed interaction of PFV Gag with several PLKs of both human and rat origin. A consensus Ser-Thr/Ser-Pro (S-T/S-P) motif in Gag, which is conserved among primate FVs and phosphorylated in PFV virions, was essential for recognition by PLKs. In the case of rat PLK2, functional kinase and polo-box domains were required for interaction with PFV Gag. Fluorescently-tagged PFV Gag, through its chromatin tethering function, selectively relocalized ectopically expressed eGFP-tagged PLK proteins to mitotic chromosomes in a Gag STP motif-dependent manner, confirming a specific and dominant nature of the Gag-PLK interaction in mammalian cells. The functional relevance of the Gag-PLK interaction was examined in the context of replication-competent FVs and single-round PFV vectors. Although STP motif mutated viruses displayed wild type (wt) particle release, RNA packaging and intra-particle reverse transcription, their replication capacity was decreased 3-fold in single-cycle infections, and up to 20-fold in spreading infections over an extended time period. Strikingly similar defects were observed when cells infected with single-round wt Gag PFV vectors were treated with a pan PLK inhibitor. Analysis of entry kinetics of the mutant viruses indicated a post-fusion defect resulting in delayed and reduced integration, which was accompanied with an enhanced preference to integrate into heterochromatin. We conclude that interaction between PFV Gag and cellular PLK proteins is important for early replication steps of PFV within host cells. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 580 KW - core protein KW - HIV-1 infection KW - retroviral integration KW - reverse transcription KW - nuclear-localization KW - box domain KW - in-vivo KW - Gag KW - PLK1 KW - phosphorylation Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-411317 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 580 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zurnic, Irena A1 - Hütter, Sylvia A1 - Rzeha, Ute A1 - Stanke, Nicole A1 - Reh, Juliane A1 - Müllers, Erik A1 - Hamann, Martin V. A1 - Kern, Tobias A1 - Gerresheim, Gesche K. A1 - Lindel, Fabian A1 - Serrao, Erik A1 - Lesbats, Paul A1 - Engelman, Alan N. A1 - Cherepanov, Peter A1 - Lindemann, Dirk T1 - Interactions of Prototype Foamy Virus Capsids with Host Cell Polo-Like Kinases Are Important for Efficient Viral DNA Integration JF - PLoS Pathogens N2 - Unlike for other retroviruses, only a few host cell factors that aid the replication of foamy viruses (FVs) via interaction with viral structural components are known. Using a yeast-two-hybrid (Y2H) screen with prototype FV (PFV) Gag protein as bait we identified human polo-like kinase 2 (hPLK2), a member of cell cycle regulatory kinases, as a new interactor of PFV capsids. Further Y2H studies confirmed interaction of PFV Gag with several PLKs of both human and rat origin. A consensus Ser-Thr/Ser-Pro (S-T/S-P) motif in Gag, which is conserved among primate FVs and phosphorylated in PFV virions, was essential for recognition by PLKs. In the case of rat PLK2, functional kinase and polo-box domains were required for interaction with PFV Gag. Fluorescently-tagged PFV Gag, through its chromatin tethering function, selectively relocalized ectopically expressed eGFP-tagged PLK proteins to mitotic chromosomes in a Gag STP motif-dependent manner, confirming a specific and dominant nature of the Gag-PLK interaction in mammalian cells. The functional relevance of the Gag-PLK interaction was examined in the context of replication-competent FVs and single-round PFV vectors. Although STP motif mutated viruses displayed wild type (wt) particle release, RNA packaging and intra-particle reverse transcription, their replication capacity was decreased 3-fold in single-cycle infections, and up to 20-fold in spreading infections over an extended time period. Strikingly similar defects were observed when cells infected with single-round wt Gag PFV vectors were treated with a pan PLK inhibitor. Analysis of entry kinetics of the mutant viruses indicated a post-fusion defect resulting in delayed and reduced integration, which was accompanied with an enhanced preference to integrate into heterochromatin. We conclude that interaction between PFV Gag and cellular PLK proteins is important for early replication steps of PFV within host cells. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1005860 SN - 1553-7366 SN - 1553-7374 VL - 12 PB - PLoS CY - San Fransisco ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zurita-Sánchez, Jorge R. A1 - Henkel, Carsten T1 - Lossy electrical transmission lines: Thermal fluctuations and quantization N2 - We present a theoretical framework for the analysis of the statistical properties of thermal fluctuations on a lossy transmission line. A quantization scheme of the electrical signals in the transmission line is formulated. We discuss two applications in detail. Noise spectra at finite temperature for voltage and current are shown to deviate significantly from the Johnson-Nyquist limit, and they depend on the position on the transmission line. We analyze the spontaneous emission, at low temperature, of a Rydberg atom and its resonant enhancement due to vacuum fluctuations in a capacitively coupled transmission line. The theory can also be applied to study the performance of microscale and nanoscale devices, including high-resolution sensors and quantum information processors Y1 - 2006 UR - http://pra.aps.org/pdf/PRA/v73/i6/e063825 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1103/Physreva.73.063825 SN - 1050-2947 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zurita-Sanchez, Jorge R. A1 - Henkel, Carsten T1 - Acoustic waves from mechanical impulses due to fluorescence resonant energy (Forster) transfer Blowing a whistle with light JF - epl : a letters journal exploring the frontiers of physics N2 - We present a momentum transfer mechanism mediated by electromagnetic fields that originates in a system of two nearby molecules: one excited (donor D*) and the other in ground state (acceptor A). An intermolecular force related to fluorescence resonant energy or Forster transfer (FRET) arises in the unstable D* A molecular system, which differs from the equilibrium van der Waals interaction. Due to the its finite lifetime, a mechanical impulse is imparted to the relative motion in the system. We analyze the FRET impulse when the molecules are embedded in free space and find that its magnitude can be much greater than the single recoil photon momentum, getting comparable with the thermal momentum (Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution) at room temperature. In addition, we propose that this FRET impulse can be exploited in the generation of acoustic waves inside a film containing layers of donor and acceptor molecules, when a picosecond laser pulse excites the donors. This acoustic transient is distinguishable from that produced by thermal stress due to laser absorption, and may therefore play a role in photoacoustic spectroscopy. The effect can be seen as exciting a vibrating system like a string or organ pipe with light; it may be used as an opto-mechanical transducer. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/97/43002 SN - 0295-5075 VL - 97 IS - 4 PB - EDP Sciences CY - Mulhouse ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zurell, Damaris A1 - von Wehrden, Henrik A1 - Rotics, Shay A1 - Kaatz, Michael A1 - Gross, Helge A1 - Schlag, Lena A1 - Schäfer, Merlin A1 - Sapir, Nir A1 - Turjeman, Sondra A1 - Wikelski, Martin A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Home range size and resource use of breeding and non-breeding white storks along a land use gradient JF - Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution N2 - Biotelemetry is increasingly used to study animal movement at high spatial and temporal resolution and guide conservation and resource management. Yet, limited sample sizes and variation in space and habitat use across regions and life stages may compromise robustness of behavioral analyses and subsequent conservation plans. Here, we assessed variation in (i) home range sizes, (ii) home range selection, and (iii) fine-scale resource selection of white storks across breeding status and regions and test model transferability. Three study areas were chosen within the Central German breeding grounds ranging from agricultural to fluvial and marshland. We monitored GPS-locations of 62 adult white storks equipped with solar-charged GPS/3D-acceleration (ACC) transmitters in 2013-2014. Home range sizes were estimated using minimum convex polygons. Generalized linear mixed models were used to assess home range selection and fine-scale resource selection by relating the home ranges and foraging sites to Corine habitat variables and normalized difference vegetation index in a presence/pseudo-absence design. We found strong variation in home range sizes across breeding stages with significantly larger home ranges in non-breeding compared to breeding white storks, but no variation between regions. Home range selection models had high explanatory power and well predicted overall density of Central German white stork breeding pairs. Also, they showed good transferability across regions and breeding status although variable importance varied considerably. Fine-scale resource selection models showed low explanatory power. Resource preferences differed both across breeding status and across regions, and model transferability was poor. Our results indicate that habitat selection of wild animals may vary considerably within and between populations, and is highly scale dependent. Thereby, home range scale analyses show higher robustness whereas fine-scale resource selection is not easily predictable and not transferable across life stages and regions. Such variation may compromise management decisions when based on data of limited sample size or limited regional coverage. We thus recommend home range scale analyses and sampling designs that cover diverse regional landscapes and ensure robust estimates of habitat suitability to conserve wild animal populations. KW - 3D-acceleration sensor KW - biotelemetry KW - Ciconia ciconia KW - home range selection KW - resource selection Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2018.00079 SN - 2296-701X VL - 6 PB - Frontiers Research Foundation CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zurell, Damaris A1 - König, Christian A1 - Malchow, Anne-Kathleen A1 - Kapitza, Simon A1 - Bocedi, Greta A1 - Travis, Justin M. J. A1 - Fandos, Guillermo T1 - Spatially explicit models for decision-making in animal conservation and restoration JF - Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology / Nordic Ecologic Society Oikos N2 - Models are useful tools for understanding and predicting ecological patterns and processes. Under ongoing climate and biodiversity change, they can greatly facilitate decision-making in conservation and restoration and help designing adequate management strategies for an uncertain future. Here, we review the use of spatially explicit models for decision support and to identify key gaps in current modelling in conservation and restoration. Of 650 reviewed publications, 217 publications had a clear management application and were included in our quantitative analyses. Overall, modelling studies were biased towards static models (79%), towards the species and population level (80%) and towards conservation (rather than restoration) applications (71%). Correlative niche models were the most widely used model type. Dynamic models as well as the gene-to-individual level and the community-to-ecosystem level were underrepresented, and explicit cost optimisation approaches were only used in 10% of the studies. We present a new model typology for selecting models for animal conservation and restoration, characterising model types according to organisational levels, biological processes of interest and desired management applications. This typology will help to more closely link models to management goals. Additionally, future efforts need to overcome important challenges related to data integration, model integration and decision-making. We conclude with five key recommendations, suggesting that wider usage of spatially explicit models for decision support can be achieved by 1) developing a toolbox with multiple, easier-to-use methods, 2) improving calibration and validation of dynamic modelling approaches and 3) developing best-practise guidelines for applying these models. Further, more robust decision-making can be achieved by 4) combining multiple modelling approaches to assess uncertainty, and 5) placing models at the core of adaptive management. These efforts must be accompanied by long-term funding for modelling and monitoring, and improved communication between research and practise to ensure optimal conservation and restoration outcomes. KW - adaptive management KW - biodiversity conservation KW - cost optimisation KW - ecosystem restoration KW - global change KW - predictive models Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05787 SN - 1600-0587 IS - 4 SP - 1 EP - 16 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Oxford ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zurell, Damaris A1 - König, Christian A1 - Malchow, Anne-Kathleen A1 - Kapitza, Simon A1 - Bocedi, Greta A1 - Travis, Justin M. J. A1 - Fandos, Guillermo T1 - Spatially explicit models for decision-making in animal conservation and restoration T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Models are useful tools for understanding and predicting ecological patterns and processes. Under ongoing climate and biodiversity change, they can greatly facilitate decision-making in conservation and restoration and help designing adequate management strategies for an uncertain future. Here, we review the use of spatially explicit models for decision support and to identify key gaps in current modelling in conservation and restoration. Of 650 reviewed publications, 217 publications had a clear management application and were included in our quantitative analyses. Overall, modelling studies were biased towards static models (79%), towards the species and population level (80%) and towards conservation (rather than restoration) applications (71%). Correlative niche models were the most widely used model type. Dynamic models as well as the gene-to-individual level and the community-to-ecosystem level were underrepresented, and explicit cost optimisation approaches were only used in 10% of the studies. We present a new model typology for selecting models for animal conservation and restoration, characterising model types according to organisational levels, biological processes of interest and desired management applications. This typology will help to more closely link models to management goals. Additionally, future efforts need to overcome important challenges related to data integration, model integration and decision-making. We conclude with five key recommendations, suggesting that wider usage of spatially explicit models for decision support can be achieved by 1) developing a toolbox with multiple, easier-to-use methods, 2) improving calibration and validation of dynamic modelling approaches and 3) developing best-practise guidelines for applying these models. Further, more robust decision-making can be achieved by 4) combining multiple modelling approaches to assess uncertainty, and 5) placing models at the core of adaptive management. These efforts must be accompanied by long-term funding for modelling and monitoring, and improved communication between research and practise to ensure optimal conservation and restoration outcomes. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1243 Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-549915 SN - 1866-8372 VL - 2022 SP - 1 EP - 16 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ET - 4 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zurell, Damaris A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Dormann, Carsten F. A1 - Schröder-Esselbach, Boris T1 - Static species distribution models in dynamically changing systems : how good can predictions really be? N2 - SDM performance varied for different range dynamics. Prediction accuracies decreased when abrupt range shifts occurred as species were outpaced by the rate of climate change, and increased again when a new equilibrium situation was realised. When ranges contracted, prediction accuracies increased as the absences were predicted well. Far- dispersing species were faster in tracking climate change, and were predicted more accurately by SDMs than short- dispersing species. BRTs mostly outperformed GLMs. The presence of a predator, and the inclusion of its incidence as an environmental predictor, made BRTs and GLMs perform similarly. Results are discussed in light of other studies dealing with effects of ecological traits and processes on SDM performance. Perspectives are given on further advancements of SDMs and for possible interfaces with more mechanistic approaches in order to improve predictions under environmental change. Y1 - 2009 UR - http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/117966123/home?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.05810.x SN - 0906-7590 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zurell, Damaris A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Rossmanith, Eva A1 - Zbinden, Niklaus A1 - Zimmermann, Niklaus E. A1 - Schröder-Esselbach, Boris T1 - Uncertainty in predictions of range dynamics black grouse climbing the Swiss Alps JF - Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum N2 - Empirical species distribution models (SDMs) constitute often the tool of choice for the assessment of rapid climate change effects on species vulnerability. Conclusions regarding extinction risks might be misleading, however, because SDMs do not explicitly incorporate dispersal or other demographic processes. Here, we supplement SDMs with a dynamic population model 1) to predict climate-induced range dynamics for black grouse in Switzerland, 2) to compare direct and indirect measures of extinction risks, and 3) to quantify uncertainty in predictions as well as the sources of that uncertainty. To this end, we linked models of habitat suitability to a spatially explicit, individual-based model. In an extensive sensitivity analysis, we quantified uncertainty in various model outputs introduced by different SDM algorithms, by different climate scenarios and by demographic model parameters. Potentially suitable habitats were predicted to shift uphill and eastwards. By the end of the 21st century, abrupt habitat losses were predicted in the western Prealps for some climate scenarios. In contrast, population size and occupied area were primarily controlled by currently negative population growth and gradually declined from the beginning of the century across all climate scenarios and SDM algorithms. However, predictions of population dynamic features were highly variable across simulations. Results indicate that inferring extinction probabilities simply from the quantity of suitable habitat may underestimate extinction risks because this may ignore important interactions between life history traits and available habitat. Also, in dynamic range predictions uncertainty in SDM algorithms and climate scenarios can become secondary to uncertainty in dynamic model components. Our study emphasises the need for principal evaluation tools like sensitivity analysis in order to assess uncertainty and robustness in dynamic range predictions. A more direct benefit of such robustness analysis is an improved mechanistic understanding of dynamic species responses to climate change. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.07200.x SN - 0906-7590 VL - 35 IS - 7 SP - 590 EP - 603 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zurell, Damaris A1 - Elith, Jane A1 - Schröder-Esselbach, Boris T1 - Predicting to new environments tools for visualizing model behaviour and impacts on mapped distributions T2 - Diversity & distributions : a journal of biological invasions and biodiversity N2 - Data limitations can lead to unrealistic fits of predictive species distribution models (SDMs) and spurious extrapolation to novel environments. Here, we want to draw attention to novel combinations of environmental predictors that are within the sampled range of individual predictors but are nevertheless outside the sample space. These tend to be overlooked when visualizing model behaviour. They may be a cause of differing model transferability and environmental change predictions between methods, a problem described in some studies but generally not well understood. We here use a simple simulated data example to illustrate the problem and provide new and complementary visualization techniques to explore model behaviour and predictions to novel environments. We then apply these in a more complex real-world example. Our results underscore the necessity of scrutinizing model fits, ecological theory and environmental novelty. KW - Environmental niche KW - extrapolation KW - inflated response curves KW - novel environment KW - sampling space KW - species distribution models Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2012.00887.x SN - 1366-9516 VL - 18 IS - 6 SP - 628 EP - 634 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zurell, Damaris A1 - Eggers, Ute A1 - Kaatz, Michael A1 - Rotics, Shay A1 - Sapir, Nir A1 - Wikelski, Martin A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Individual-based modelling of resource competition to predict density-dependent population dynamics: a case study with white storks JF - Oikos N2 - Density regulation influences population dynamics through its effects on demographic rates and consequently constitutes a key mechanism explaining the response of organisms to environmental changes. Yet, it is difficult to establish the exact form of density dependence from empirical data. Here, we developed an individual-based model to explore how resource limitation and behavioural processes determine the spatial structure of white stork Ciconia ciconia populations and regulate reproductive rates. We found that the form of density dependence differed considerably between landscapes with the same overall resource availability and between home range selection strategies, highlighting the importance of fine-scale resource distribution in interaction with behaviour. In accordance with theories of density dependence, breeding output generally decreased with density but this effect was highly variable and strongly affected by optimal foraging strategy, resource detection probability and colonial behaviour. Moreover, our results uncovered an overlooked consequence of density dependence by showing that high early nestling mortality in storks, assumed to be the outcome of harsh weather, may actually result from density dependent effects on food provision. Our findings emphasize that accounting for interactive effects of individual behaviour and local environmental factors is crucial for understanding density-dependent processes within spatially structured populations. Enhanced understanding of the ways animal populations are regulated in general, and how habitat conditions and behaviour may dictate spatial population structure and demographic rates is critically needed for predicting the dynamics of populations, communities and ecosystems under changing environmental conditions. Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.01294 SN - 0030-1299 SN - 1600-0706 VL - 124 IS - 3 SP - 319 EP - 330 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zurell, Damaris A1 - Berger, Uta A1 - Cabral, Juliano Sarmento A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Meynard, Christine N. A1 - Muenkemueller, Tamara A1 - Nehrbass, Nana A1 - Pagel, Jörn A1 - Reineking, Bjoern A1 - Schroeder, Boris A1 - Grimm, Volker T1 - The virtual ecologist approach : simulating data and observers N2 - Ecologists carry a well-stocked toolbox with a great variety of sampling methods, statistical analyses and modelling tools, and new methods are constantly appearing. Evaluation and optimisation of these methods is crucial to guide methodological choices. Simulating error-free data or taking high-quality data to qualify methods is common practice. Here, we emphasise the methodology of the 'virtual ecologist' (VE) approach where simulated data and observer models are used to mimic real species and how they are 'virtually' observed. This virtual data is then subjected to statistical analyses and modelling, and the results are evaluated against the 'true' simulated data. The VE approach is an intuitive and powerful evaluation framework that allows a quality assessment of sampling protocols, analyses and modelling tools. It works under controlled conditions as well as under consideration of confounding factors such as animal movement and biased observer behaviour. In this review, we promote the approach as a rigorous research tool, and demonstrate its capabilities and practical relevance. We explore past uses of VE in different ecological research fields, where it mainly has been used to test and improve sampling regimes as well as for testing and comparing models, for example species distribution models. We discuss its benefits as well as potential limitations, and provide some practical considerations for designing VE studies. Finally, research fields are identified for which the approach could be useful in the future. We conclude that VE could foster the integration of theoretical and empirical work and stimulate work that goes far beyond sampling methods, leading to new questions, theories, and better mechanistic understanding of ecological systems. Y1 - 2010 UR - http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/issn?DESCRIPTOR=PRINTISSN&VALUE=0030-1299 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.18284.x SN - 0030-1299 ER - TY - THES A1 - Zurell, Damaris T1 - Integrating dynamic and statistical modelling approaches in order to improve predictions for scenarios of environmental change T1 - Integration dynamischer und statistischer Modellansätze zur Verbesserung von Arealvorhersagen für Szenarien globalen Wandels N2 - Species respond to environmental change by dynamically adjusting their geographical ranges. Robust predictions of these changes are prerequisites to inform dynamic and sustainable conservation strategies. Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) relate species’ occurrence records to prevailing environmental factors to describe the environmental niche. They have been widely applied in global change context as they have comparably low data requirements and allow for rapid assessments of potential future species’ distributions. However, due to their static nature, transient responses to environmental change are essentially ignored in SDMs. Furthermore, neither dispersal nor demographic processes and biotic interactions are explicitly incorporated. Therefore, it has often been suggested to link statistical and mechanistic modelling approaches in order to make more realistic predictions of species’ distributions for scenarios of environmental change. In this thesis, I present two different ways of such linkage. (i) Mechanistic modelling can act as virtual playground for testing statistical models and allows extensive exploration of specific questions. I promote this ‘virtual ecologist’ approach as a powerful evaluation framework for testing sampling protocols, analyses and modelling tools. Also, I employ such an approach to systematically assess the effects of transient dynamics and ecological properties and processes on the prediction accuracy of SDMs for climate change projections. That way, relevant mechanisms are identified that shape the species’ response to altered environmental conditions and which should hence be considered when trying to project species’ distribution through time. (ii) I supplement SDM projections of potential future habitat for black grouse in Switzerland with an individual-based population model. By explicitly considering complex interactions between habitat availability and demographic processes, this allows for a more direct assessment of expected population response to environmental change and associated extinction risks. However, predictions were highly variable across simulations emphasising the need for principal evaluation tools like sensitivity analysis to assess uncertainty and robustness in dynamic range predictions. Furthermore, I identify data coverage of the environmental niche as a likely cause for contrasted range predictions between SDM algorithms. SDMs may fail to make reliable predictions for truncated and edge niches, meaning that portions of the niche are not represented in the data or niche edges coincide with data limits. Overall, my thesis contributes to an improved understanding of uncertainty factors in predictions of range dynamics and presents ways how to deal with these. Finally I provide preliminary guidelines for predictive modelling of dynamic species’ response to environmental change, identify key challenges for future research and discuss emerging developments. N2 - Das Vorkommen von Arten wird zunehmend bedroht durch Klima- und Landnutzungswandel. Robuste Vorhersagen der damit verbundenen Arealveränderungen sind ausschlaggebend für die Erarbeitung dynamischer und nachhaltiger Naturschutzstrategien. Habitateignungsmodelle erstellen statistische Zusammenhänge zwischen dem Vorkommen einer Art und relevanten Umweltvariablen und erlauben zügige Einschätzungen potentieller Arealveränderungen. Dabei werden jedoch transiente Dynamiken weitgehend ignoriert sowie demographische Prozesse und biotische Interaktionen. Daher wurden Vorschläge laut, diese statistischen Modelle mit mechanistischeren Ansätzen zu koppeln. In der vorliegenden Arbeit zeige ich zwei verschiedene Möglichkeiten solcher Kopplung auf. (i) Ich beschreibe den sogenannten ‚Virtuellen Ökologen’-Ansatz als mächtiges Validierungswerkzeug, in dem mechanistische Modelle virtuelle Testflächen bieten zur Erforschung verschiedener Probenahmedesigns oder statistischer Methoden sowie spezifischer Fragestellungen. Auch verwende ich diesen Ansatz, um systematisch zu untersuchen wie sich transiente Dynamiken sowie Arteigenschaften und ökologische Prozesse auf die Vorhersagegüte von Habitateignungsmodellen auswirken. So kann ich entscheidende Prozesse identifizieren welche in zukünftigen Modellen Berücksichtigung finden sollten. (ii) Darauf aufbauend koppele ich Vorhersagen von Habitateignungsmodellen mit einem individuen-basierten Populationsmodell, um die Entwicklung des Schweizer Birkhuhnbestandes unter Klimawandel vorherzusagen. Durch die explizite Berücksichtigung der Wechselwirkungen zwischen Habitat und demographischer Prozesse lassen sich direktere Aussagen über Populationsentwicklung und damit verbundener Extinktionsrisiken treffen. Allerdings führen verschiedene Simulationen auch zu hoher Variabilität zwischen Vorhersagen, was die Bedeutung von Sensitivitätsanalysen unterstreicht, um Unsicherheiten und Robustheit von Vorhersagen einzuschätzen. Außerdem identifiziere ich Restriktionen in der Datenabdeckung des Umweltraumes als möglichen Grund für kontrastierende Vorhersagen verschiedener Habitateignungsmodelle. Wenn die Nische einer Art nicht vollständig durch Daten beschrieben ist, kann dies zu unrealistischen Vorhersagen der Art-Habitat-Beziehung führen. Insgesamt trägt meine Arbeit erheblich bei zu einem besseren Verständnis der Auswirkung verschiedenster Unsicherheitsfaktoren auf Vorhersagen von Arealveränderungen und zeigt Wege auf, mit diesen umzugehen. Abschließend erstelle ich einen vorläufigen Leitfaden für Vorhersagemodelle und identifiziere Kernpunkte für weitere Forschung auf diesem Gebiet. KW - species distribution models KW - dynamic population models KW - climate change KW - prediction KW - uncertainty KW - Habitatmodelle KW - dynamische Populationsmodelle KW - Klimawandel KW - Vorhersage KW - Unsicherheit Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-56845 ER -