TY - JOUR A1 - Joseph, May A1 - Varino, Sofia T1 - Multidirectional Thalassology BT - Comparative ecologies between the Venetian Lagoon and the Indian Ocean JF - Shima : the international journal of research into Island cultures / Island Cultures Research Centre (ICRC) N2 - This article merges discourses from Indian Ocean studies, Island Studies, performance art and decolonial methodologies to offer interdisciplinary ways of thinking about La Serenissima and its navigational histories. It is a transdisciplinary speculative entry, part empirical, part analytical, part applied phenomenology. We write this as a collaboration between two members of the Harmattan Theater company, a New York City based environmental performance ensemble applying environmental theory to site-specific performances engaging oceans and islands. The article is driven by the following research questions: What are the historic relationalities between the Venice lagoon and the Indian Ocean? How has the acqua alto flooding of Venice, accompanied by the mnemonic histories of the Venetian lagoon, impacted understandings of lagoon cultures in the global South, particularly the Malabar Coast of South Asia? This question has propelled the artistic and academic research of May Joseph and Sofia Varino across environmental history, island studies and performance. Drawing on histories of Venetian navigation and lagoon culture, Joseph and Varino propose a comparative lagoon aesthetics, one that would link two archipelagic regions, the Venetian Lagoon and the extended archipelagic region of the Laccadive Sea of India. While we believe a contemporary archipelagic study connecting these two regions does not currently exist, the historical archives suggest otherwise. We draw on the Venetian Camaldolese monk and cartographer Fra Mauro's Mappa Mundi from the 15th Century to initiate this comparative dialogue between North/Southisland ecologies, seafaring histories and ocean futures affected by climate change and rising sea levels. This research is part of a book that Joseph and Varino are co-writing on islands, archipelagos, coastal regions and climate change, drawing on a ten-year collaboration working with large-scale site-specific environmental performance as research, activism and embodied phenomenology. KW - Indian Ocean KW - South Asia KW - Venetian lagoons KW - islands KW - maritime history KW - decolonial performance KW - ecology Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.21463/shima.118 SN - 1834-6049 SN - 1834-6057 VL - 15 IS - 1 SP - 256 EP - 272 PB - ICRC CY - Sydney ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Blaser, Lilian A1 - Ohrnberger, Matthias A1 - Krüger, Frank A1 - Scherbaum, Frank T1 - Probabilistic tsunami threat assessment of 10 recent earthquakes offshore Sumatra JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - Tsunami early warning (TEW) is a challenging task as a decision has to be made within few minutes on the basis of incomplete and error-prone data. Deterministic warning systems have difficulties in integrating and quantifying the intrinsic uncertainties. In contrast, probabilistic approaches provide a framework that handles uncertainties in a natural way. Recently, we have proposed a method using Bayesian networks (BNs) that takes into account the uncertainties of seismic source parameter estimates in TEW. In this follow-up study, the method is applied to 10 recent large earthquakes offshore Sumatra and tested for its performance. We have evaluated both the general model performance given the best knowledge we have today about the source parameters of the 10 events and the corresponding response on seismic source information evaluated in real-time. We find that the resulting site-specific warning level probabilities represent well the available tsunami wave measurements and observations. Difficulties occur in the real-time tsunami assessment if the moment magnitude estimate is severely over- or underestimated. In general, the probabilistic analysis reveals a considerably large range of uncertainties in the near-field TEW. By quantifying the uncertainties the BN analysis provides important additional information to a decision maker in a warning centre to deal with the complexity in TEW and to reason under uncertainty. KW - Probabilistic forecasting KW - Tsunamis KW - Early warning KW - Indian Ocean Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05324.x SN - 0956-540X VL - 188 IS - 3 SP - 1273 EP - 1284 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - GEN A1 - Rößler, Dirk A1 - Krüger, Frank A1 - Ohrnberger, Matthias T1 - Rupture propagation of recent large TsE off-coast Sumatra and Java N2 - The spatio-temporal evolution of the three recent tsunamogenic earthquakes (TsE) off-coast N-Sumatra (Mw9.3), 28/03/2005 (Mw8.5) off-coast Nias, on 17/07/2006 (Mw7.7) off-coast Java. Start time, duration, and propagation of the rupture are retrieved. All parameters can be obtained rapidly after recording of the first-arrival phases in near-real time processing. We exploit semblance analysis, backpropagation and broad-band seismograms within 30°-95° distance. Image enhancement is reached by stacking the semblance of arrays within different directions. For the three events, the rupture extends over about 1150, 150, and 200km, respectively. The events in 2004, 2005, and 2006 had source durations of at least 480s, 120s, and 180s, respectively. We observe unilateral rupture propagation for all events except for the rupture onset and the Nias event, where there is evidence for a bilateral start of the rupture. Whereas average rupture speed of the events in 2004 and 2005 is in the order of the S-wave speed (≈2.5-3km/s), unusually slow rupturing (≈1.5 km/s) is indicated for the July 2006 event. For the July 2006 event we find rupturing of a 200 x 100 km wide area in at least 2 phases with propagation from NW to SE. The event has some characteristics of a circular rupture followed by unilateral faulting with change in slip rate. Fault area and aftershock distribution coincide. Spatial and temporal resolution are frequency dependent. Studies of a Mw6.0 earthquake on 2006/09/21 and one synthetic source show a ≈1° limit in resolution. Retrieved source area, source duration as well as peak values for semblance and beam power generally increase with the size of the earthquake making possible an automatic detection and classification of large and small earthquakes. KW - Tsunami KW - Erdbeben KW - Indischer Ozean KW - Bruchausbreitung KW - Seismologie KW - Tsunami KW - Earthquake KW - Indonesia KW - Indian Ocean KW - Rupture Propagation KW - Seismology Y1 - 2007 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-13039 ER -