TY - JOUR A1 - Deino, A. L. A1 - Dommain, René A1 - Keller, C. B. A1 - Potts, R. A1 - Behrensmeyer, A. K. A1 - Beverly, E. J. A1 - King, J. A1 - Heil, C. W. A1 - Stockhecke, M. A1 - Brown, E. T. A1 - Moerman, J. A1 - deMenocal, P. A1 - Deocampo, D. A1 - Garcin, Yannick A1 - Levin, N. E. A1 - Lupien, R. A1 - Owen, R. B. A1 - Rabideaux, N. A1 - Russell, J. M. A1 - Scott, J. A1 - Riedl, S. A1 - Brady, K. A1 - Bright, J. A1 - Clark, J. B. A1 - Cohen, A. A1 - Faith, J. T. A1 - Noren, A. A1 - Muiruri, V. A1 - Renaut, R. A1 - Rucina, S. A1 - Uno, K. T1 - Chronostratigraphic model of a high-resolution drill core record of the past million years from the Koora Basin, south Kenya Rift: Overcoming the difficulties of variable sedimentation rate and hiatuses JF - Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal N2 - The Olorgesailie Drilling Project and the related Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project in East Africa were initiated to test hypotheses and models linking environmental change to hominin evolution by drilling lake basin sediments adjacent to important archeological and paleoanthropological sites. Drill core OL012-1A recovered 139 m of sedimentary and volcaniclastic strata from the Koora paleolake basin, southern Kenya Rift, providing the opportunity to compare paleoenvironmental influences over the past million years with the parallel record exposed at the nearby Olorgesailie archeological site. To refine our ability to link core-to-outcrop paleoenvironmental records, we institute here a methodological framework for deriving a robust age model for the complex lithostratigraphy of OL012-1A. Firstly, chronostratigraphic control points for the core were established based on 4 Ar/39Ar ages from intercalated tephra deposits and a basal trachyte flow, as well as the stratigraphic position of the Brunhes-Matuyama geomagnetic reversal. This dataset was combined with the position and duration of paleosols, and analyzed using a new Bayesian algorithm for high-resolution age-depth modeling of hiatus-bearing stratigraphic sections. This model addresses three important aspects relevant to highly dynamic, nonlinear depositional environments: 1) correcting for variable rates of deposition, 2) accommodating hiatuses, and 3) quantifying realistic age uncertainty with centimetric resolution. Our method is applicable to typical depositional systems in extensional rifts as well as to drill cores from other dynamic terrestrial or aquatic environments. We use the core age model and lithostratigraphy to examine the inter connectivity of the Koora Basin to adjacent areas and sources of volcanism. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. KW - Pleistocene KW - Paleolimnology KW - East Africa KW - Sedimentology KW - Radiogenic isotopes KW - Bayesian modeling KW - paleosol KW - Tephrostratigraphy KW - Magnetostratigraphy KW - Kenya Rift Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.05.009 SN - 0277-3791 VL - 215 SP - 213 EP - 231 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Veh, Georg A1 - Korup, Oliver A1 - Walz, Ariane T1 - Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake outburst floods JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America : PNAS N2 - Sustained glacier melt in the Himalayas has gradually spawned more than 5,000 glacier lakes that are dammed by potentially unstable moraines. When such dams break, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause catastrophic societal and geomorphic impacts. We present a robust probabilistic estimate of average GLOFs return periods in the Himalayan region, drawing on 5.4 billion simulations. We find that the 100-y outburst flood has an average volume of 33.5(+3.7)/(-3.7) x 10(6) m(3) (posterior mean and 95% highest density interval [HDI]) with a peak discharge of 15,600(+2.000)/(-1,800) m(3).S-1. Our estimated GLOF hazard is tied to the rate of historic lake outbursts and the number of present lakes, which both are highest in the Eastern Himalayas. There, the estimated 100-y GLOF discharge (similar to 14,500 m(3).s(-1)) is more than 3 times that of the adjacent Nyainqentanglha Mountains, and at least an order of magnitude higher than in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Western Himalayas. The GLOF hazard may increase in these regions that currently have large glaciers, but few lakes, if future projected ice loss generates more unstable moraine-dammed lakes than we recognize today. Flood peaks from GLOFs mostly attenuate within Himalayan headwaters, but can rival monsoon-fed discharges in major rivers hundreds to thousands of kilometers downstream. Projections of future hazard from meteorological floods need to account for the extreme runoffs during lake outbursts, given the increasing trends in population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in Himalayan headwaters. KW - atmospheric warming KW - meltwater lakes KW - GLOF KW - extreme-value statistics KW - Bayesian modeling Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1914898117 SN - 0027-8424 VL - 117 IS - 2 SP - 907 EP - 912 PB - National Academy of Sciences CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Chandra, Johan A1 - Krügel, André A1 - Engbert, Ralf T1 - Experimental test of Bayesian saccade targeting under reversed reading direction JF - Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics N2 - During reading, rapid eye movements (saccades) shift the reader's line of sight from one word to another for high-acuity visual information processing. While experimental data and theoretical models show that readers aim at word centers, the eye-movement (oculomotor) accuracy is low compared to other tasks. As a consequence, distributions of saccadic landing positions indicate large (i) random errors and (ii) systematic over- and undershoot of word centers, which additionally depend on saccade lengths (McConkie et al.Visual Research, 28(10), 1107-1118,1988). Here we show that both error components can be simultaneously reduced by reading texts from right to left in German language (N= 32). We used our experimental data to test a Bayesian model of saccade planning. First, experimental data are consistent with the model. Second, the model makes specific predictions of the effects of the precision of prior and (sensory) likelihood. Our results suggest that it is a more precise sensory likelihood that can explain the reduction of both random and systematic error components. KW - eye movements and reading KW - Bayesian modeling KW - eye-movement control KW - model KW - fixation KW - attention KW - words KW - swift Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3758/s13414-019-01814-4 SN - 1943-393X SN - 1943-3921 VL - 82 SP - 1230 EP - 1240 PB - Springer CY - New York, NY ER -