TY - JOUR A1 - Agarwal, Ankit A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Maheswaran, Rathinasamy A1 - Öztürk, Ugur A1 - Kurths, Jürgen A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - Optimal design of hydrometric station networks based on complex network analysis JF - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences N2 - Hydrometric networks play a vital role in providing information for decision-making in water resource management. They should be set up optimally to provide as much information as possible that is as accurate as possible and, at the same time, be cost-effective. Although the design of hydrometric networks is a well-identified problem in hydrometeorology and has received considerable attention, there is still scope for further advancement. In this study, we use complex network analysis, defined as a collection of nodes interconnected by links, to propose a new measure that identifies critical nodes of station networks. The approach can support the design and redesign of hydrometric station networks. The science of complex networks is a relatively young field and has gained significant momentum over the last few years in different areas such as brain networks, social networks, technological networks, or climate networks. The identification of influential nodes in complex networks is an important field of research. We propose a new node-ranking measure – the weighted degree–betweenness (WDB) measure – to evaluate the importance of nodes in a network. It is compared to previously proposed measures used on synthetic sample networks and then applied to a real-world rain gauge network comprising 1229 stations across Germany to demonstrate its applicability. The proposed measure is evaluated using the decline rate of the network efficiency and the kriging error. The results suggest that WDB effectively quantifies the importance of rain gauges, although the benefits of the method need to be investigated in more detail. KW - identifying influential nodes KW - climate networks KW - rainfall KW - streamflow KW - synchronization KW - precipitation KW - classification KW - events Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2235-2020 SN - 1027-5606 SN - 1607-7938 VL - 24 IS - 5 SP - 2235 EP - 2251 PB - Copernicus Publ. CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Albrecht, Torsten A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - Glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) BT - Part 1: boundary conditions and climatic forcing JF - The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Simulations of the glacial-interglacial history of the Antarctic Ice Sheet provide insights into dynamic threshold behavior and estimates of the ice sheet's contributions to global sea-level changes for the past, present and future. However, boundary conditions are weakly constrained, in particular at the interface of the ice sheet and the bedrock. Also climatic forcing covering the last glacial cycles is uncertain, as it is based on sparse proxy data.
We use the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to investigate the dynamic effects of different choices of input data, e.g., for modern basal heat flux or reconstructions of past changes of sea level and surface temperature. As computational resources are limited, glacial-cycle simulations are performed using a comparably coarse model grid of 16 km and various parameterizations, e.g., for basal sliding, iceberg calving, or for past variations in precipitation and ocean temperatures. In this study we evaluate the model's transient sensitivity to corresponding parameter choices and to different boundary conditions over the last two glacial cycles and provide estimates of involved uncertainties. We also discuss isolated and combined effects of climate and sea-level forcing. Hence, this study serves as a "cookbook" for the growing community of PISM users and paleo-ice sheet modelers in general.
For each of the different model uncertainties with regard to climatic forcing, ice and Earth dynamics, and basal processes, we select one representative model parameter that captures relevant uncertainties and motivates corresponding parameter ranges that bound the observed ice volume at present. The four selected parameters are systematically varied in a parameter ensemble analysis, which is described in a companion paper. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020 SN - 1994-0416 SN - 1994-0424 VL - 14 IS - 2 SP - 599 EP - 632 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Allroggen, Niklas A1 - Beiter, Daniel A1 - Tronicke, Jens T1 - Ground-penetrating radar monitoring of fast subsurface processes JF - Geophysics N2 - Earth and environmental sciences rely on detailed information about subsurface processes. Whereas geophysical techniques typically provide highly resolved spatial images, monitoring subsurface processes is often associated with enormous effort and, therefore, is usually limited to point information in time or space. Thus, the development of spatial and temporal continuous field monitoring methods is a major challenge for the understanding of subsurface processes. We have developed a novel method for ground-penetrating-radar (GPR) reflection monitoring of subsurface flow processes under unsaturated conditions and applied it to a hydrological infiltration experiment performed across a periglacial slope deposit in northwest Luxembourg. Our approach relies on a spatial and temporal quasicontinuous data recording and processing, followed by an attribute analysis based on analyzing differences between individual time steps. The results demonstrate the ability of time-lapse GPR monitoring to visualize the spatial and temporal dynamics of preferential flow processes with a spatial resolution in the order of a few decimeters and temporal resolution in the order of a few minutes. We observe excellent agreement with water table information originating from different boreholes. This demonstrates the potential of surface-based GPR reflection monitoring to observe the spatiotemporal dynamics of water movements in the subsurface. It provides valuable, and so far not accessible, information for example in the field of hydrology and pedology that allows studying the actual subsurface processes rather than deducing them from point information. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1190/GEO2019-0737.1 SN - 0016-8033 SN - 1942-2156 VL - 85 IS - 3 SP - A19 EP - A23 PB - Society of Exploration Geophysicists CY - Tulsa ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Angelopoulos, Michael A1 - Overduin, Pier Paul A1 - Westermann, Sebastian A1 - Tronicke, Jens A1 - Strauss, Jens A1 - Schirrmeister, Lutz A1 - Biskaborn, Boris A1 - Liebner, Susanne A1 - Maksimov, Georgii A1 - Grigoriev, Mikhail N. A1 - Grosse, Guido T1 - Thermokarst lake to lagoon transitions in Eastern Siberia BT - do submerged taliks refreeze? JF - Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface N2 - As the Arctic coast erodes, it drains thermokarst lakes, transforming them into lagoons, and, eventually, integrates them into subsea permafrost. Lagoons represent the first stage of a thermokarst lake transition to a marine setting and possibly more saline and colder upper boundary conditions. In this research, borehole data, electrical resistivity surveying, and modeling of heat and salt diffusion were carried out at Polar Fox Lagoon on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Siberia. Polar Fox Lagoon is a seasonally isolated water body connected to Tiksi Bay through a channel, leading to hypersaline waters under the ice cover. The boreholes in the center of the lagoon revealed floating ice and a saline cryotic bed underlain by a saline cryotic talik, a thin ice-bearing permafrost layer, and unfrozen ground. The bathymetry showed that most of the lagoon had bedfast ice in spring. In bedfast ice areas, the electrical resistivity profiles suggested that an unfrozen saline layer was underlain by a thick layer of refrozen talik. The modeling showed that thermokarst lake taliks can refreeze when submerged in saltwater with mean annual bottom water temperatures below or slightly above 0 degrees C. This occurs, because the top-down chemical degradation of newly formed ice-bearing permafrost is slower than the refreezing of the talik. Hence, lagoons may precondition taliks with a layer of ice-bearing permafrost before encroachment by the sea, and this frozen layer may act as a cap on gas migration out of the underlying talik. KW - thermokarst lake KW - talik KW - lagoon KW - subsea permafrost KW - salt diffusion KW - Siberia Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005424 SN - 2169-9003 SN - 2169-9011 VL - 125 IS - 10 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Arnous, Ahmad A1 - Zeckra, Martin A1 - Venerdini, Agostina A1 - Alvarado, Patricia A1 - Arrowsmith, Ramón A1 - Guillemoteau, Julien A1 - Landgraf, Angela A1 - Gutiérrez, Adolfo Antonio A1 - Strecker, Manfred T1 - Neotectonic Activity in the Low-Strain Broken Foreland (Santa Bárbara System) of the North-Western Argentinean Andes (26°S) JF - Lithosphere N2 - Uplift in the broken Andean foreland of the Argentine Santa Bárbara System (SBS) is associated with the contractional reactivation of basement anisotropies, similar to those reported from the thick-skinned Cretaceous-Eocene Laramide province of North America. Fault scarps, deformed Quaternary deposits and landforms, disrupted drainage patterns, and medium-sized earthquakes within the SBS suggest that movement along these structures may be a recurring phenomenon, with yet to be defined repeat intervals and rupture lengths. In contrast to the Subandes thrust belt farther north, where eastward-migrating deformation has generated a well-defined thrust front, the SBS records spatiotemporally disparate deformation along structures that are only known to the first order. We present herein the results of geomorphic desktop analyses, structural field observations, and 2D electrical resistivity tomography and seismic-refraction tomography surveys and an interpretation of seismic reflection profiles across suspected fault scarps in the sedimentary basins adjacent to the Candelaria Range (CR) basement uplift, in the south-central part of the SBS. Our analysis in the CR piedmont areas reveals consistency between the results of near-surface electrical resistivity and seismic-refraction tomography surveys, the locations of prominent fault scarps, and structural geometries at greater depth imaged by seismic reflection data. We suggest that this deformation is driven by deep-seated blind thrusting beneath the CR and associated regional warping, while shortening involving Mesozoic and Cenozoic sedimentary strata in the adjacent basins was accommodated by layer-parallel folding and flexural-slip faults that cut through Quaternary landforms and deposits at the surface. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2113/2020/8888588 SN - 1947-4253 SN - 1941-8264 VL - 2020 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 25 PB - GSA CY - Boulder, Colo. ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ayzel, Georgy A1 - Scheffer, Tobias A1 - Heistermann, Maik T1 - RainNet v1.0 BT - a convolutional neural network for radar-based precipitation nowcasting JF - Geoscientific Model Development N2 - In this study, we present RainNet, a deep convolutional neural network for radar-based precipitation nowcasting. Its design was inspired by the U-Net and SegNet families of deep learning models, which were originally designed for binary segmentation tasks. RainNet was trained to predict continuous precipitation intensities at a lead time of 5min, using several years of quality-controlled weather radar composites provided by the German Weather Service (DWD). That data set covers Germany with a spatial domain of 900km × 900km and has a resolution of 1km in space and 5min in time. Independent verification experiments were carried out on 11 summer precipitation events from 2016 to 2017. In order to achieve a lead time of 1h, a recursive approach was implemented by using RainNet predictions at 5min lead times as model inputs for longer lead times. In the verification experiments, trivial Eulerian persistence and a conventional model based on optical flow served as benchmarks. The latter is available in the rainymotion library and had previously been shown to outperform DWD's operational nowcasting model for the same set of verification events. RainNet significantly outperforms the benchmark models at all lead times up to 60min for the routine verification metrics mean absolute error (MAE) and the critical success index (CSI) at intensity thresholds of 0.125, 1, and 5mm h⁻¹. However, rainymotion turned out to be superior in predicting the exceedance of higher intensity thresholds (here 10 and 15mm h⁻¹). The limited ability of RainNet to predict heavy rainfall intensities is an undesirable property which we attribute to a high level of spatial smoothing introduced by the model. At a lead time of 5min, an analysis of power spectral density confirmed a significant loss of spectral power at length scales of 16km and below. Obviously, RainNet had learned an optimal level of smoothing to produce a nowcast at 5min lead time. In that sense, the loss of spectral power at small scales is informative, too, as it reflects the limits of predictability as a function of spatial scale. Beyond the lead time of 5min, however, the increasing level of smoothing is a mere artifact – an analogue to numerical diffusion – that is not a property of RainNet itself but of its recursive application. In the context of early warning, the smoothing is particularly unfavorable since pronounced features of intense precipitation tend to get lost over longer lead times. Hence, we propose several options to address this issue in prospective research, including an adjustment of the loss function for model training, model training for longer lead times, and the prediction of threshold exceedance in terms of a binary segmentation task. Furthermore, we suggest additional input data that could help to better identify situations with imminent precipitation dynamics. The model code, pretrained weights, and training data are provided in open repositories as an input for such future studies. KW - weather KW - models KW - skill Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2631-2020 SN - 1991-959X SN - 1991-9603 VL - 13 IS - 6 SP - 2631 EP - 2644 PB - Copernicus Publ. CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baes, Marzieh A1 - Sobolev, Stephan A1 - Gerya, Taras V. A1 - Brune, Sascha T1 - Plume-induced subduction initiation BT - single-slab or multi-slab subduction? JF - Geochemistry, geophysics, geosystems N2 - Initiation of subduction following the impingement of a hot buoyant mantle plume is one of the few scenarios that allow breaking the lithosphere and recycling a stagnant lid without requiring any preexisting weak zones. Here, we investigate factors controlling the number and shape of retreating subducting slabs formed by plume-lithosphere interaction. Using 3-D thermomechanical models we show that the deformation regime, which defines formation of single-slab or multi-slab subduction, depends on several parameters such as age of oceanic lithosphere, thickness of the crust and large-scale lithospheric extension rate. Our model results indicate that on present-day Earth multi-slab plume-induced subduction is initiated only if the oceanic lithosphere is relatively young (<30-40 Myr, but >10 Myr), and the crust has a typical thickness of 8 km. In turn, development of single-slab subduction is facilitated by older lithosphere and pre-imposed extensional stresses. In early Earth, plume-lithosphere interaction could have led to formation of either episodic short-lived circular subduction when the oceanic lithosphere was young or to multi-slab subduction when the lithosphere was old. KW - subduction zone KW - plume KW - numerical model KW - singleslab KW - multi-slab Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GC008663 SN - 1525-2027 VL - 21 IS - 2 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baes, Marzieh A1 - Sobolev, Stephan V. A1 - Gerya, Taras V. A1 - Brune, Sascha T1 - Subduction initiation by Plume-Plateau interaction BT - insights from numerical models JF - Geochemistry, geophysics, geosystems N2 - It has recently been demonstrated that the interaction of a mantle plume with sufficiently old oceanic lithosphere can initiate subduction. However, the existence of large lithospheric heterogeneities, such as a buoyant plateau, in proximity to a rising plume head may potentially hinder the formation of a new subduction zone. Here, we investigate this scenario by means of 3-D numerical thermomechanical modeling. We explore how plume-lithosphere interaction is affected by lithospheric age, relative location of plume head and plateau border, and the strength of the oceanic crust. Our numerical experiments suggest four different geodynamic regimes: (a) oceanic trench formation, (b) circular oceanic-plateau trench formation, (c) plateau trench formation, and (d) no trench formation. We show that regardless of the age and crustal strength of the oceanic lithosphere, subduction can initiate when the plume head is either below the plateau border or at a distance less than the plume radius from the plateau edge. Crustal heterogeneity facilitates subduction initiation of old oceanic lithosphere. High crustal strength hampers the formation of a new subduction zone when the plume head is located below a young lithosphere containing a thick and strong plateau. We suggest that plume-plateau interaction in the western margin of the Caribbean could have resulted in subduction initiation when the plume head impinged onto the oceanic lithosphere close to the border between plateau and oceanic crust. KW - subduction zone KW - plume KW - plateau KW - numerical modeling KW - plume-induced KW - subduction initiation (PISI) Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GC009119 SN - 1525-2027 VL - 21 IS - 8 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bahr, André A1 - Kolber, Gilles A1 - Kaboth-Bahr, Stefanie A1 - Reinhardt, Lutz A1 - Friedrich, Oliver A1 - Pross, Jörg T1 - Mega-monsoon variability during the late Triassic BT - re-assessing the role of orbital forcing in the deposition of playa sediments in the Germanic Basin JF - Sedimentology : the journal of the International Association of Sedimentologists N2 - The formation of the supercontinent Pangaea during the Permo-Triassic gave rise to an extreme monsoonal climate (often termed 'mega-monsoon') that has been documented by numerous palaeo-records. However, considerable debate exists about the role of orbital forcing in causing humid intervals in an otherwise arid climate. To shed new light on the forcing of monsoonal variability in subtropical Pangaea, this study focuses on sediment facies and colour variability of playa and alluvial fan deposits in an outcrop from the late Carnian (ca 225 Ma) in the southern Germanic Basin, south-western Germany. The sediments were deposited against a background of increasingly arid conditions following the humid Carnian Pluvial Event (ca 234 to 232 Ma). The ca 2 center dot 4 Myr long sedimentary succession studied shows a tripartite long-term evolution, starting with a distal mud-flat facies deposited under arid conditions. This phase was followed by a highly variable playa-lake environment that documents more humid conditions and finally a regression of the playa-lake due to a return of arid conditions. The red-green (a*) and lightness (L*) records show that this long-term variability was overprinted by alternating wet/dry cycles driven by orbital precession and ca 405 kyr eccentricity, without significant influence of obliquity. The absence of obliquity in this record indicates that high-latitude forcing played only a minor role in the southern Germanic Basin during the late Carnian. This is different from the subsequent Norian when high-latitude signals became more pronounced, potentially related to the northward drift of the Germanic Basin. The recurring pattern of pluvial events during the late Triassic demonstrates that orbital forcing, in particular eccentricity, stimulated the occurrence and intensity of wet phases. It also highlights the possibility that the Carnian Pluvial Event, although most likely triggered by enhanced volcanic activity, may also have been modified by an orbital stimulus. KW - Carnian Pluvial Event KW - Germanic Basin KW - Late Triassic KW - mega-monsoon KW - orbital forcing KW - playa-lake Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/sed.12668 SN - 0037-0746 SN - 1365-3091 VL - 67 IS - 2 SP - 951 EP - 970 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Balischewski, Christian A1 - Behrens, Karsten A1 - Zehbe, Kerstin A1 - Günter, Christina A1 - Mies, Stefan A1 - Sperlich, Eric A1 - Kelling, Alexandra A1 - Taubert, Andreas T1 - Ionic liquids with more than one metal BT - optical and rlectrochemical properties versus d-block metal vombinations JF - Chemistry - a European journal N2 - Thirteen N-butylpyridinium salts, including three monometallic [C4Py](2)[MCl4], nine bimetallic [C4Py](2)[(M1-xMxCl4)-M-a-Cl-b] and one trimetallic compound [C4Py](2)[(M1-y-zMyMz (c) Cl4)-M-a-M-b] (M=Co, Cu, Mn; x=0.25, 0.50 or 0.75 and y=z=0.33), were synthesized and their structure and thermal and electrochemical properties were studied. All compounds are ionic liquids (ILs) with melting points between 69 and 93 degrees C. X-ray diffraction proves that all ILs are isostructural. The conductivity at room temperature is between 10(-4) and 10(-8) S cm(-1). Some Cu-based ILs reach conductivities of 10(-2) S cm(-1), which is, however, probably due to IL dec. This correlates with the optical bandgap measurements indicating the formation of large bandgap semiconductors. At elevated temperatures approaching the melting points, the conductivities reach up to 1.47x10(-1) S cm(-1) at 70 degrees C. The electrochemical stability windows of the ILs are between 2.5 and 3.0 V. KW - bandgap KW - electrochemistry KW - ionic liquids KW - metal-containing ionic KW - liquids KW - tetrahalido metallates Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/chem.202003097 SN - 0947-6539 SN - 1521-3765 VL - 26 IS - 72 SP - 17504 EP - 17513 PB - Wiley-VCH CY - Weinheim ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baroni, Gabriele A1 - Francke, Till T1 - An effective strategy for combining variance- and distribution-based global sensitivity analysis JF - Environmental modelling & software with environment data news N2 - We present a new strategy for performing global sensitivity analysis capable to estimate main and interaction effects from a generic sampling design. The new strategy is based on a meaningful combination of varianceand distribution-based approaches. The strategy is tested on four analytic functions and on a hydrological model. Results show that the analysis is consistent with the state-of-the-art Saltelli/Jansen formula but to better quantify the interaction effect between the input factors when the output distribution is skewed. Moreover, the estimation of the sensitivity indices is much more robust requiring a smaller number of simulations runs. Specific settings and alternative methods that can be integrated in the new strategy are also discussed. Overall, the strategy is considered as a new simple and effective tool for performing global sensitivity analysis that can be easily integrated in any environmental modelling framework. KW - global sensitivity analysis KW - variance KW - distribution KW - generic sampling KW - design Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104851 SN - 1364-8152 SN - 1873-6726 VL - 134 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bentz, Stephan A1 - Kwiatek, Grzegorz A1 - Martinez-Garzon, Patricia A1 - Bohnhoff, Marco A1 - Dresen, Georg T1 - Seismic moment evolution during hydraulic stimulations JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Analysis of past and present stimulation projects reveals that the temporal evolution and growth of maximum observed moment magnitudes may be linked directly to the injected fluid volume and hydraulic energy. Overall evolution of seismic moment seems independent of the tectonic stress regime and is most likely governed by reservoir specific parameters, such as the preexisting structural inventory. Data suggest that magnitudes can grow either in a stable way, indicating the constant propagation of self-arrested ruptures, or unbound, for which the maximum magnitude is only limited by the size of tectonic faults and fault connectivity. Transition between the two states may occur at any time during injection or not at all. Monitoring and traffic light systems used during stimulations need to account for the possibility of unstable rupture propagation from the very beginning of injection by observing the entire seismicity evolution in near-real time and at high resolution for an immediate reaction in injection strategy. Plain Language Summary Predicting and controlling the size of earthquakes caused by fluid injection is currently the major concern of many projects associated with geothermal energy production. Here, we analyze the magnitude and seismic moment evolution with injection parameters for prominent geothermal and scientific projects to date. Evolution of seismicity seems to be largely independent of the tectonic stress background and seemingly depends on reservoir specific characteristics. We find that the maximum observed magnitudes relate linearly to the injected volume or hydraulic energy. A linear relation suggests stable growth of induced ruptures, as predicted by current models, or rupture growth may no longer depend on the stimulated volume but on tectonics. A system may change between the two states during the course of fluid injection. Close-by and high-resolution monitoring of seismic and hydraulic parameters in near-real time may help identify these fundamental changes in ample time to change injection strategy and manage maximum magnitudes. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086185 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 47 IS - 5 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Brill, Fabio Alexander A1 - Passuni Pineda, Silvia A1 - Espichan Cuya, Bruno A1 - Kreibich, Heidi T1 - A data-mining approach towards damage modelling for El Nino events in Peru JF - Geomatics, natural hazards and risk N2 - Compound natural hazards likeEl Ninoevents cause high damage to society, which to manage requires reliable risk assessments. Damage modelling is a prerequisite for quantitative risk estimations, yet many procedures still rely on expert knowledge, and empirical studies investigating damage from compound natural hazards hardly exist. A nationwide building survey in Peru after theEl Ninoevent 2017 - which caused intense rainfall, ponding water, flash floods and landslides - enables us to apply data-mining methods for statistical groundwork, using explanatory features generated from remote sensing products and open data. We separate regions of different dominant characteristics through unsupervised clustering, and investigate feature importance rankings for classifying damage via supervised machine learning. Besides the expected effect of precipitation, the classification algorithms select the topographic wetness index as most important feature, especially in low elevation areas. The slope length and steepness factor ranks high for mountains and canyons. Partial dependence plots further hint at amplified vulnerability in rural areas. An example of an empirical damage probability map, developed with a random forest model, is provided to demonstrate the technical feasibility. KW - Natural hazard KW - damage model KW - residential buildings KW - data-mining KW - remote KW - sensing KW - open data Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2020.1818636 SN - 1947-5705 SN - 1947-5713 VL - 11 IS - 1 SP - 1966 EP - 1990 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Brunello, Camilla Francesca A1 - Andermann, Christoff A1 - Marc, Odin A1 - Schneider, Katharina A. A1 - Comiti, Francesco A1 - Achleitner, Stefan A1 - Hovius, Niels T1 - Annually resolved monsoon onset and withdrawal dates across the Himalayas derived from local precipitation statistics JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - A local and flexible definition of the monsoon season based on hydrological evidence is important for the understanding and management of Himalayan water resources. Here, we present an objective statistical method to retrieve seasonal hydrometeorological transitions. Applied to daily rainfall data (1951-2015), this method shows an average longitudinal delay of similar to 15 days, with later monsoon onset and earlier withdrawal in the western Himalaya, consistent with the continental progression of wet air masses. This delay leads to seasons of different length along the Himalaya and biased precipitation amounts when using uniform calendric monsoon boundaries. In the Central Himalaya annual precipitation has increased, due primarily to an increase of premonsoon precipitation. These findings highlight issues associated with a static definition of monsoon boundaries and call for a deeper understanding of nonmonsoonal precipitation over the Himalayan water tower.
Plain Language Summary Precipitation in the Himalayas determines water availability for the Indian foreland with large socioeconomic implications. Despite its importance, spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation are poorly understood. Here, we estimate the long-term average and trends of seasonal precipitation at the scale of individual catchments draining the Himalayas. We apply a statistical method to detect the timing of hydrometeorological seasons from local precipitation measurements, focusing on monsoon onset and withdrawal. We identify longitudinal and latitudinal delays, resulting in seasons of different length along and across the Himalayas. These spatial patterns and the annual variability of the monsoon boundaries mean that oft-used, fixed calendric dates, for example, 1 June to 30 September, may be inadequate for retrieving monsoon rainfall totals. Moreover, we find that, despite its prominent contribution to annual rainfall totals, the Indian summer monsoon cannot explain the increase of the annual precipitation over the Central Himalayas. Instead, this appears to be mostly driven by changes in premonsoon and winter rainfall. So far, little attention has been paid to premonsoon precipitation, but governed by evaporative processes and surface water availability, it may be enhanced by irrigation and changed land use in the Gangetic foreland. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088420 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 47 IS - 23 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Calitri, Francesca A1 - Sommer, Michael A1 - van der Meij, Marijn W. A1 - Egli, Markus T1 - Soil erosion along a transect in a forested catchment: recent or ancient processes? JF - Catena : an interdisciplinary journal of soil science, hydrology, geomorphology focusing on geoecology and landscape evolution N2 - Forested areas are assumed not to be influenced by erosion processes. However, forest soils of Northern Germany in a hummocky ground moraine landscape can sometimes exhibit a very shallow thickness on crest positions and buried soils on slope positions. The question consequently is: Are these on-going or ancient erosional and depositional processes? Plutonium isotopes act as soil erosion/deposition tracers for recent (last few decades) processes. Here, we quantified the 239+240PU inventories in a small, forested catchment (ancient forest "Melzower Forst", deciduous trees), which is characterised by a hummocky terrain including a kettle hole. Soil development depths (depth to C horizon) and 239+240PU inventories along a catena of sixteen different profiles were determined and correlated to relief parameters. Moreover, we compared different modelling approaches to derive erosion rates from Pu data.
We find a strong relationship between soil development depths, distance-to-sink and topography along the catena. Fully developed Retisols (thicknesses > 1 m) in the colluvium overlay old land surfaces as documented by fossil Ah horizons. However, we found no relationship of Pu-based erosion rates to any relief parameter. Instead, 239+240PU inventories showed a very high local, spatial variability (36-70 Bq m(-2)). Low annual rainfall, spatially distributed interception and stem flow might explain the high variability of the 239+240PU inventories, giving rise to a patchy input pattern. Different models resulted in quite similar erosion and deposition rates (max: -5 t ha(-1) yr(-1) to +7.3 t ha(-1) yr(-1)). Although some rates are rather high, the magnitude of soil erosion and deposition - in terms of soil thickness change - is negligible during the last 55 years. The partially high values are an effect of the patchy Pu deposition on the forest floor. This forest has been protected for at least 240 years. Therefore rather natural events and anthropogenic activities during medieval times or even earlier must have caused the observed soil pattern, which documents strong erosion and deposition processes. KW - Soil erosion KW - 239+240 Plutonium KW - Forest KW - Moraine landscape KW - Soil catena Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2020.104683 SN - 0341-8162 SN - 1872-6887 VL - 194 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Castino, Fabiana A1 - Bookhagen, Bodo A1 - De la Torre, Alejandro T1 - Atmospheric dynamics of extreme discharge events from 1979 to 2016 in the southern Central Andes JF - Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system N2 - During the South-American Monsoon season, deep convective systems occur at the eastern flank of the Central Andes leading to heavy rainfall and flooding. We investigate the large- and meso-scale atmospheric dynamics associated with extreme discharge events (> 99.9th percentile) observed in two major river catchments meridionally stretching from humid to semi-arid conditions in the southern Central Andes. Based on daily gauge time series and ERA-Interim reanalysis, we made the following three key observations: (1) for the period 1940-2016 daily discharge exhibits more pronounced variability in the southern, semi-arid than in the northern, humid catchments. This is due to a smaller ratio of discharge magnitudes between intermediate (0.2 year return period) and rare events (20 year return period) in the semi-arid compared to the humid areas; (2) The climatological composites of the 40 largest discharge events showed characteristic atmospheric features of cold surges based on 5-day time-lagged sequences of geopotential height at different levels in the troposphere; (3) A subjective classification revealed that 80% of the 40 largest discharge events are mainly associated with the north-northeastward migration of frontal systems and 2/3 of these are cold fronts, i.e. cold surges. This work highlights the importance of cold surges and their related atmospheric processes for the generation of heavy rainfall events and floods in the southern Central Andes. KW - South American monsoon system KW - cold surges KW - orographic barrier KW - mesoscale convective systems KW - extreme discharge KW - daily-discharge time KW - series ERA-interim Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05458-1 SN - 0930-7575 SN - 1432-0894 VL - 55 IS - 11-12 SP - 3485 EP - 3505 PB - Springer CY - Berlin ; Heidelberg [u.a.] ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cheng, Chaojie A1 - Milsch, Harald T1 - Permeability variations in illite-bearing sandstone BT - effects of temperature and NaCl fluid salinity JF - Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth N2 - Temperature changes and variations in pore fluid salinity may negatively affect the permeability of clay-bearing sandstones with implications for natural fluid flow and geotechnical applications alike. In this study these factors are investigated for a sandstone dominated by illite as the clay phase. Systematic long-term flow-through experiments were conducted and complemented with comprehensive microstructural investigations and the application of Derjaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek (DLVO) theory to explain mechanistically the observed permeability changes. Initially, sample permeability was not affected by low pore fluid salinity indicating strong attraction of the illite particles to the pore walls as supported by electron microprobe analysis (EMPA). Increasing temperature up to 145 degrees C resulted in an irreversible permeability decrease by 1.5 orders of magnitude regardless of the pore fluid composition (i.e., deionized water and 2 M NaCl solution). Subsequently diluting the high salinity pore fluid to below 0.5 M yielded an additional permeability decline by 1.5 orders of magnitude, both at 145 degrees C and after cooling to room temperature. By applying scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP) thermo-mechanical pore throat closure and illite particle migration were identified as independently operating mechanisms responsible for observed permeability changes during heating and dilution, respectively. These observations indicate that permeability of illite-bearing sandstones will be impaired by heating and exposure to low salinity pore fluids. In addition, chemically induced permeability variations proved to be path dependent with respect to the applied succession of fluid salinity changes. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JB020122 SN - 2169-9313 SN - 2169-9356 VL - 125 IS - 9 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cheng, Chaojie A1 - Milsch, Harald T1 - Evolution of fracture aperture in quartz sandstone under hydrothermal conditions BT - mechanical and chemical effects JF - Minerals N2 - Fractures efficiently affect fluid flow in geological formations, and thereby determine mass and energy transport in reservoirs, which are not least exploited for economic resources. In this context, their response to mechanical and thermal changes, as well as fluid-rock interactions, is of paramount importance. In this study, a two-stage flow-through experiment was conducted on a pure quartz sandstone core of low matrix permeability, containing one single macroscopic tensile fracture. In the first short-term stage, the effects of mechanical and hydraulic aperture on pressure and temperature cycles were investigated. The purpose of the subsequent intermittent-flow long-term (140 days) stage was to constrain the evolution of the geometrical and hydraulic fracture properties resulting from pressure solution. Deionized water was used as the pore fluid, and permeability, as well as the effluent Si concentrations, were systematically measured. Overall, hydraulic aperture was shown to be significantly less affected by pressure, temperature and time, in comparison to mechanical aperture. During the long-term part of the experiment at 140 degrees C, the effluent Si concentrations likely reached a chemical equilibrium state within less than 8 days of stagnant flow, and exceeded the corresponding hydrostatic quartz solubility at this temperature. This implies that the pressure solution was active at the contacting fracture asperities, both at 140 degrees C and after cooling to 33 degrees C. The higher temperature yielded a higher dissolution rate and, consequently, a faster attainment of chemical equilibrium within the contact fluid. X-ray mu CT observations evidenced a noticeable increase in fracture contact area ratio, which, in combination with theoretical considerations, implies a significant decrease in mechanical aperture. In contrast, the sample permeability, and thus the hydraulic fracture aperture, virtually did not vary. In conclusion, pressure solution-induced fracture aperture changes are affected by the degree of time-dependent variations in pore fluid composition. In contrast to the present case of a quasi-closed system with mostly stagnant flow, in an open system with continuous once-through fluid flow, the activity of the pressure solution may be amplified due to the persistent fluid-chemical nonequilibrium state, thus possibly enhancing aperture and fracture permeability changes. KW - flow-through experiment KW - fracture aperture KW - pressure solution KW - mass KW - transfer KW - silica concentration KW - permeability KW - quartz sandstone Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/min10080657 SN - 2075-163X VL - 10 IS - 8 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Coesfeld, Jacqueline A1 - Kuester, Theres A1 - Kuechly, Helga U. A1 - Kyba, Christopher C. M. T1 - Reducing variability and removing natural light from nighttime satellite imagery: A case study using the VIIRS DNB JF - Sensors N2 - Temporal variation of natural light sources such as airglow limits the ability of night light sensors to detect changes in small sources of artificial light (such as villages). This study presents a method for correcting for this effect globally, using the satellite radiance detected from regions without artificial light emissions. We developed a routine to define an approximate grid of locations worldwide that do not have regular light emission. We apply this method with a 5 degree equally spaced global grid (total of 2016 individual locations), using data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day-Night Band (DNB). This code could easily be adapted for other future global sensors. The correction reduces the standard deviation of data in the Earth Observation Group monthly DNB composites by almost a factor of two. The code and datasets presented here are available under an open license by GFZ Data Services, and are implemented in the Radiance Light Trends web application. KW - airglow KW - artificial light KW - calibration KW - VIIRS DNB KW - nightlights KW - remote sensing Y1 - 2020 VL - 20 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cook, Kristen L. A1 - Turowski, Jens M. A1 - Hovius, Niels T1 - Width control on event-scale deposition and evacuation of sediment in bedrock-confined channels JF - Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group N2 - In mixed bedrock-alluvial rivers, the response of the system to a flood event can be affected by a number of factors, including coarse sediment availability in the channel, sediment supply from the hillslopes and upstream, flood sequencing and coarse sediment grain size distribution. However, the impact of along-stream changes in channel width on bedload transport dynamics remains largely unexplored. We combine field data, theory and numerical modelling to address this gap. First, we present observations from the Daan River gorge in western Taiwan, where the river flows through a 1 km long 20-50 m wide bedrock gorge bounded upstream and downstream by wide braidplains. We documented two flood events during which coarse sediment evacuation and redeposition appear to cause changes of up to several metres in channel bed elevation. Motivated by this case study, we examined the relationships between discharge, channel width and bedload transport capacity, and show that for a given slope narrow channels transport bedload more efficiently than wide ones at low discharges, whereas wider channels are more efficient at high discharges. We used the model sedFlow to explore this effect, running a random sequence of floods through a channel with a narrow gorge section bounded upstream and downstream by wider reaches. Channel response to imposed floods is complex, as high and low discharges drive different spatial patterns of erosion and deposition, and the channel may experience both of these regimes during the peak and recession periods of each flood. Our modelling suggests that width differences alone can drive substantial variations in sediment flux and bed response, without the need for variations in sediment supply or mobility. The fluctuations in sediment transport rates that result from width variations can lead to intermittent bed exposure, driving incision in different segments of the channel during different portions of the hydrograph. KW - bedload transport KW - discharge variability KW - bedrock-alluvial channels KW - channel width KW - hysteresis Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4993 SN - 0197-9337 SN - 1096-9837 VL - 45 IS - 14 SP - 3702 EP - 3713 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Crisologo, Irene A1 - Heistermann, Maik T1 - Using ground radar overlaps to verify the retrieval of calibration bias estimates from spaceborne platforms JF - Atmospheric measurement techniques : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Many institutions struggle to tap into the potential of their large archives of radar reflectivity: these data are often affected by miscalibration, yet the bias is typically unknown and temporally volatile. Still, relative calibration techniques can be used to correct the measurements a posteriori. For that purpose, the usage of spaceborne reflectivity observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) platforms has become increasingly popular: the calibration bias of a ground radar (GR) is estimated from its average reflectivity difference to the spaceborne radar (SR). Recently, Crisologo et al. (2018) introduced a formal procedure to enhance the reliability of such estimates: each match between SR and GR observations is assigned a quality index, and the calibration bias is inferred as a quality-weighted average of the differences between SR and GR. The relevance of quality was exemplified for the Subic S-band radar in the Philippines, which is greatly affected by partial beam blockage. The present study extends the concept of quality-weighted averaging by accounting for path-integrated attenuation (PIA) in addition to beam blockage. This extension becomes vital for radars that operate at the C or X band. Correspondingly, the study setup includes a C-band radar that substantially overlaps with the S-band radar. Based on the extended quality-weighting approach, we retrieve, for each of the two ground radars, a time series of calibration bias estimates from suitable SR overpasses. As a result of applying these estimates to correct the ground radar observations, the consistency between the ground radars in the region of overlap increased substantially. Furthermore, we investigated if the bias estimates can be interpolated in time, so that ground radar observations can be corrected even in the absence of prompt SR overpasses. We found that a moving average approach was most suitable for that purpose, although limited by the absence of explicit records of radar maintenance operations. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-645-2020 SN - 1867-1381 SN - 1867-8548 VL - 13 IS - 2 SP - 645 EP - 659 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Crisologo, Irene A1 - Heistermann, Maik T1 - Using ground radar overlaps to verify the retrieval of calibration bias estimates from spaceborne platforms JF - Atmospheric Measurement Techniques N2 - Many institutions struggle to tap into the potential of their large archives of radar reflectivity: these data are often affected by miscalibration, yet the bias is typically unknown and temporally volatile. Still, relative calibration techniques can be used to correct the measurements a posteriori. For that purpose, the usage of spaceborne reflectivity observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) platforms has become increasingly popular: the calibration bias of a ground radar (GR) is estimated from its average reflectivity difference to the spaceborne radar (SR). Recently, Crisologo et al. (2018) introduced a formal procedure to enhance the reliability of such estimates: each match between SR and GR observations is assigned a quality index, and the calibration bias is inferred as a quality-weighted average of the differences between SR and GR. The relevance of quality was exemplified for the Subic S-band radar in the Philippines, which is greatly affected by partial beam blockage. The present study extends the concept of quality-weighted averaging by accounting for path-integrated attenuation (PIA) in addition to beam blockage. This extension becomes vital for radars that operate at the C or X band. Correspondingly, the study setup includes a C-band radar that substantially overlaps with the S-band radar. Based on the extended quality-weighting approach, we retrieve, for each of the two ground radars, a time series of calibration bias estimates from suitable SR overpasses. As a result of applying these estimates to correct the ground radar observations, the consistency between the ground radars in the region of overlap increased substantially. Furthermore, we investigated if the bias estimates can be interpolated in time, so that ground radar observations can be corrected even in the absence of prompt SR overpasses. We found that a moving average approach was most suitable for that purpose, although limited by the absence of explicit records of radar maintenance operations. KW - Weather KW - Band KW - Reflectivity KW - Algorithm KW - Uncertainties KW - Methodology KW - Kwajalein Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-645-2020 SN - 1867-1381 SN - 1867-8548 VL - 13 IS - 2 SP - 645 EP - 659 PB - Copernicus Publications CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Stiller, Manfred A1 - Mechie, James A1 - Heimann, Sebastian A1 - Hensch, Martin A1 - Woith, Heiko A1 - Schmidt, Bernd A1 - Gabriel, Gerald A1 - Weber, Michael T1 - Seismological and geophysical signatures of the deep crustal magma systems of the cenozoic volcanic fields Beneath the Eifel, Germany JF - Geochemistry, geophysics, geosystems N2 - The Quaternary volcanic fields of the Eifel (Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany) had their last eruptions less than 13,000 years ago. Recently, deep low-frequency (DLF) earthquakes were detected beneath one of the volcanic fields showing evidence of ongoing magmatic activity in the lower crust and upper mantle. In this work, seismic wide- and steep-angle experiments from 1978/1979 and 1987/1988 are compiled, partially reprocessed and interpreted, together with other data to better determine the location, size, shape, and state of magmatic reservoirs in the Eifel region near the crust-mantle boundary. We discuss seismic evidence for a low-velocity gradient layer from 30-36 km depth, which has developed over a large region under all Quaternary volcanic fields of the Rhenish Massif and can be explained by the presence of partial melts. We show that the DLF earthquakes connect the postulated upper mantle reservoir with the upper crust at a depth of about 8 km, directly below one of the youngest phonolitic volcanic centers in the Eifel, where CO(2)originating from the mantle is massively outgassing. A bright spot in the West Eifel between 6 and 10 km depth represents a Tertiary magma reservoir and is seen as a model for a differentiated reservoir beneath the young phonolitic center today. We find that the distribution of volcanic fields is controlled by the Variscan lithospheric structures and terrane boundaries as a whole, which is reflected by an offset of the Moho depth, a wedge-shaped transparent zone in the lower crust and the system of thrusts over about 120 km length. KW - magma reservoirs KW - distributed volcanic fields KW - reflection seismic KW - crustal magma chamber KW - deep low-frequency earthquakes KW - low velocity zone Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GC009062 SN - 1525-2027 VL - 21 IS - 9 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dommain, René A1 - Andama, Morgan A1 - McDonough, Molly M. A1 - Prado, Natalia A. A1 - Goldhammer, Tobias A1 - Potts, Richard A1 - Maldonado, Jesús E. A1 - Nkurunungi, John Bosco A1 - Campana, Michael G. T1 - The Challenges of Reconstructing Tropical Biodiversity With Sedimentary Ancient DNA BT - A 2200-Year-Long Metagenomic Record From Bwindi Impenetrable Forest, Uganda JF - Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution N2 - Sedimentary ancient DNA has been proposed as a key methodology for reconstructing biodiversity over time. Yet, despite the concentration of Earth’s biodiversity in the tropics, this method has rarely been applied in this region. Moreover, the taphonomy of sedimentary DNA, especially in tropical environments, is poorly understood. This study elucidates challenges and opportunities of sedimentary ancient DNA approaches for reconstructing tropical biodiversity. We present shotgun-sequenced metagenomic profiles and DNA degradation patterns from multiple sediment cores from Mubwindi Swamp, located in Bwindi Impenetrable Forest (Uganda), one of the most diverse forests in Africa. We describe the taxonomic composition of the sediments covering the past 2200 years and compare the sedimentary DNA data with a comprehensive set of environmental and sedimentological parameters to unravel the conditions of DNA degradation. Consistent with the preservation of authentic ancient DNA in tropical swamp sediments, DNA concentration and mean fragment length declined exponentially with age and depth, while terminal deamination increased with age. DNA preservation patterns cannot be explained by any environmental parameter alone, but age seems to be the primary driver of DNA degradation in the swamp. Besides degradation, the presence of living microbial communities in the sediment also affects DNA quantity. Critically, 92.3% of our metagenomic data of a total 81.8 million unique, merged reads cannot be taxonomically identified due to the absence of genomic references in public databases. Of the remaining 7.7%, most of the data (93.0%) derive from Bacteria and Archaea, whereas only 0–5.8% are from Metazoa and 0–6.9% from Viridiplantae, in part due to unbalanced taxa representation in the reference data. The plant DNA record at ordinal level agrees well with local pollen data but resolves less diversity. Our animal DNA record reveals the presence of 41 native taxa (16 orders) including Afrotheria, Carnivora, and Ruminantia at Bwindi during the past 2200 years. Overall, we observe no decline in taxonomic richness with increasing age suggesting that several-thousand-year-old information on past biodiversity can be retrieved from tropical sediments. However, comprehensive genomic surveys of tropical biota need prioritization for sedimentary DNA to be a viable methodology for future tropical biodiversity studies. KW - sedimentary ancient DNA KW - tropical biodiversity KW - DNA preservation KW - sediment KW - tropical swamp KW - shotgun sequencing KW - metagenomic analysis Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2020.00218 SN - 2296-701X VL - 8 PB - Frontiers Media CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Durand, Virginie A1 - Bentz, Stephan A1 - Kwiatek, Grzegorz A1 - Dresen, Georg A1 - Wollin, Christopher A1 - Heidbach, Oliver A1 - Martinez-Garzon, Patricia A1 - Cotton, Fabrice A1 - Nurlu, Murat A1 - Bohnhoff, Marco T1 - A two-scale preparation phase preceded an M-w 5.8 earthquake in the sea of marmara offshore Istanbul, Turkey JF - Seismological research letters N2 - We analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity during a sequence of moderate (an M-w 4.7 foreshock and M-w 5.8 mainshock) earthquakes occurring in September 2019 at the transition between a creeping and a locked segment of the North Anatolian fault in the central Sea of Marmara, northwest Turkey. To investigate in detail the seismicity evolution, we apply a matched-filter technique to continuous waveforms, thus reducing the magnitude threshold for detection. Sequences of foreshocks preceding the two largest events are clearly seen, exhibiting two different behaviors: a long-term activation of the seismicity along the entire fault segment and a short-term concentration around the epicenters of the large events. We suggest a two-scale preparation phase, with aseismic slip preparing the mainshock final rupture a few days before, and a cascade mechanism leading to the nucleation of the mainshock. Thus, our study shows a combination of seismic and aseismic slip during the foreshock sequence changing the strength of the fault, bringing it closer to failure. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0220200110 SN - 0895-0695 SN - 1938-2057 VL - 91 IS - 6 SP - 3139 EP - 3147 CY - Boulder ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Engels, Stefan A1 - Medeiros, Andrew S. A1 - Axford, Yarrow A1 - Brooks, Steve A1 - Heiri, Oliver A1 - Luoto, Tomi P. A1 - Nazarova, Larisa B. A1 - Porinchu, David F. A1 - Quinlan, Roberto A1 - Self, Angela E. T1 - Temperature change as a driver of spatial patterns and long-term trends in chironomid (Insecta: Diptera) diversity JF - Global change biology N2 - Anthropogenic activities have led to a global decline in biodiversity, and monitoring studies indicate that both insect communities and wetland ecosystems are particularly affected. However, there is a need for long-term data (over centennial or millennial timescales) to better understand natural community dynamics and the processes that govern the observed trends. Chironomids (Insecta: Diptera: Chironomidae) are often the most abundant insects in lake ecosystems, sensitive to environmental change, and, because their larval exoskeleton head capsules preserve well in lake sediments, they provide a unique record of insect community dynamics through time. Here, we provide the results of a metadata analysis of chironomid diversity across a range of spatial and temporal scales. First, we analyse spatial trends in chironomid diversity using Northern Hemispheric data sets overall consisting of 837 lakes. Our results indicate that in most of our data sets, summer temperature (T-jul) is strongly associated with spatial trends in modern-day chironomid diversity. We observe a strong increase in chironomid alpha diversity with increasing T-jul in regions with present-day T-jul between 2.5 and 14 degrees C. In some areas with T-jul > 14 degrees C, chironomid diversity stabilizes or declines. Second, we demonstrate that the direction and amplitude of change in alpha diversity in a compilation of subfossil chironomid records spanning the last glacial-interglacial transition (similar to 15,000-11,000 years ago) are similar to those observed in our modern data. A compilation of Holocene records shows that during phases when the amplitude of temperature change was small, site-specific factors had a greater influence on the chironomid fauna obscuring the chironomid diversity-temperature relationship. Our results imply expected overall chironomid diversity increases in colder regions such as the Arctic under sustained global warming, but with complex and not necessarily predictable responses for individual sites. KW - Arctic KW - biodiversity KW - climate warming KW - freshwater ecosystems KW - insects KW - palaeoecology KW - Quaternary Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14862 SN - 1354-1013 SN - 1365-2486 VL - 26 IS - 3 SP - 1155 EP - 1169 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Esfahani, Reza Dokht Dolatabadi A1 - Gholami, Ali A1 - Ohrnberger, Matthias T1 - An inexact augmented Lagrangian method for nonlinear dispersion-curve inversion using Dix-type global linear approximation JF - Geophysics : a journal of general and applied geophysics N2 - Dispersion-curve inversion of Rayleigh waves to infer subsurface shear-wave velocity is a long-standing problem in seismology. Due to nonlinearity and ill-posedness, sophisticated regularization techniques are required to solve the problem for a stable velocity model. We have formulated the problem as a minimization problem with nonlinear operator constraint and then solve it by using an inexact augmented Lagrangian method, taking advantage of the Haney-Tsai Dix-type relation (a global linear approximation of the nonlinear forward operator). This replaces the original regularized nonlinear problem with iterative minimization of a more tractable regularized linear problem followed by a nonlinear update of the phase velocity (data) in which the update can be performed accurately with any forward modeling engine, for example, the finite-element method. The algorithm allows discretizing the medium with thin layers (for the finite-element method) and thus omitting the layer thicknesses from the unknowns and also allows incorporating arbitrary regularizations to shape the desired velocity model. In this research, we use total variation regularization to retrieve the shear-wave velocity model. We use two synthetic and two real data examples to illustrate the performance of the inversion algorithm with total variation regularization. We find that the method is fast and stable, and it converges to the solution of the original nonlinear problem. KW - surface wave KW - nonlinear KW - inversion KW - modeling KW - finite element Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1190/geo2019-0717.1 SN - 0016-8033 SN - 1942-2156 VL - 85 IS - 3 SP - EN77 EP - EN85 PB - GeoScienceWorld CY - Tulsa, Okla. ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Figueroa Villegas, Sara A1 - Weiss, Jonathan R. A1 - Hongn, Fernando D. A1 - Pingel, Heiko A1 - Escalante, Leonardo A1 - Elías, Leonardo A1 - Aranda-Viana, R. Germán A1 - Strecker, Manfred T1 - Late pleistocene to recent deformation in the thick-skinned fold-and-thrust belt of Northwestern Argentina (Central Calchaqui Valley, 26 degrees S) JF - Tectonics / American Geophysical Union, AGU ; European Geophysical Society, EGS N2 - The thick-skinned fold-and-thrust belt on the eastern flank of the Andean Plateau in northwestern Argentina (NWA) is a zone of active contractional deformation characterized by fault-bounded mountain ranges with no systematic spatiotemporal pattern of tectonic activity. In contrast, the thin-skinned Subandean fold-and-thrust belt of northern Argentina and southern Bolivia is characterized primarily by in-sequence (i.e., west to east) fault progression, with a narrow zone of Quaternary deformation focused at the front of the orogenic wedge. To better understand how recent deformation is accommodated across these mountain ranges and the Argentinian portion of the orogen in particular, estimating and comparing deformation rates and patterns across different timescales is essential. We present Late Pleistocene shortening rates for the central Calchaqui intermontane valley in NWA associated with at least three episodes of deformation. Global Positioning System data for the same region reveal a gradual decrease in horizontal surface velocities from the Eastern Cordillera toward the foreland, which contrasts with the rapid velocity gradient associated with a locked decollement in the Subandean Ranges of southern Bolivia. Our new results represent a small view of regional deformation that, when considered in combination with the shallow crustal seismicity and decadal-scale surface velocities, support the notion that strain release in NWA is associated with numerous slowly deforming structures that are distributed throughout the orogen. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020TC006394 SN - 0278-7407 SN - 1944-9194 VL - 40 IS - 1 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington, DC ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Forbriger, Thomas A1 - Gao, Lingli A1 - Malischewsky, Peter A1 - Ohrnberger, Matthias A1 - Pan, Yudi T1 - A single Rayleigh mode may exist with multiple values of phase-velocity at one frequency JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - Other than commonly assumed in seismology, the phase velocity of Rayleigh waves is not necessarily a single-valued function of frequency. In fact, a single Rayleigh mode can exist with three different values of phase velocity at one frequency. We demonstrate this for the first higher mode on a realistic shallow seismic structure of a homogeneous layer of unconsolidated sediments on top of a half-space of solid rock (LOH). In the case of LOH a significant contrast to the half-space is required to produce the phenomenon. In a simpler structure of a homogeneous layer with fixed (rigid) bottom (LFB) the phenomenon exists for values of Poisson's ratio between 0.19 and 0.5 and is most pronounced for P-wave velocity being three times S-wave velocity (Poisson's ratio of 0.4375). A pavement-like structure (PAV) of two layers on top of a half-space produces the multivaluedness for the fundamental mode. Programs for the computation of synthetic dispersion curves are prone to trouble in such cases. Many of them use mode-follower algorithms which loose track of the dispersion curve and miss the multivalued section. We show results for well established programs. Their inability to properly handle these cases might be one reason why the phenomenon of multivaluedness went unnoticed in seismological Rayleigh wave research for so long. For the very same reason methods of dispersion analysis must fail if they imply wave number k(l)(omega) for the lth Rayleigh mode to be a single-valued function of frequency.. This applies in particular to deconvolution methods like phase-matched filters. We demonstrate that a slant-stack analysis fails in the multivalued section, while a Fourier-Bessel transformation captures the complete Rayleigh-wave signal. Waves of finite bandwidth in the multivalued section propagate with positive group-velocity and negative phase-velocity. Their eigenfunctions appear conventional and contain no conspicuous feature. KW - Surface waves and free oscillations KW - Theoretical seismology KW - Wave KW - propagation Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa123 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 222 IS - 1 SP - 582 EP - 594 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Foster, William J. A1 - Garvie, Christopher L. A1 - Weiss, Anna M. A1 - Muscente, A. Drew A1 - Aberhan, Martin A1 - Counts, John W. A1 - Martindale, Rowan C. T1 - Resilience of marine invertebrate communities during the early Cenozoic hyperthermals JF - Scientific Reports N2 - The hyperthermal events of the Cenozoic, including the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, provide an opportunity to investigate the potential effects of climate warming on marine ecosystems. Here, we examine the shallow benthic marine communities preserved in the late Cretaceous to Eocene strata on the Gulf Coastal Plain (United States). In stark contrast to the ecological shifts following the end-Cretaceous mass extinction, our data show that the early Cenozoic hyperthermals did not have a long-term impact on the generic diversity nor composition of the Gulf Coastal Plain molluscan communities. We propose that these communities were resilient to climate change because molluscs are better adapted to high temperatures than other taxa, as demonstrated by their physiology and evolutionary history. In terms of resilience, these communities differ from other shallow-water carbonate ecosystems, such as reef communities, which record significant changes during the early Cenozoic hyperthermals. These data highlight the strikingly different responses of community types, i.e., the almost imperceptible response of molluscs versus the marked turnover of foraminifera and reef faunas. The impact on molluscan communities may have been low because detrimental conditions did not devastate the entire Gulf Coastal Plain, allowing molluscs to rapidly recolonise vacated areas once harsh environmental conditions ameliorated. KW - eocene thermal maximum KW - gulf coastal plain KW - climate-change KW - ocean acidification KW - extinction event KW - carbon-cycle KW - heat-stress KW - origination KW - ecosystems KW - diversity Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-58986-5 SN - 2045-2322 VL - 10 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 11 PB - Springer Nature CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ganguli, Poulomi A1 - Paprotny, Dominik A1 - Hasan, Mehedi A1 - Güntner, Andreas A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - Projected changes in compound flood hazard from riverine and coastal floods in northwestern Europe JF - Earth's future N2 - Compound flooding in coastal regions, that is, the simultaneous or successive occurrence of high sea levels and high river flows, is expected to increase in a warmer world. To date, however, there is no robust evidence on projected changes in compound flooding for northwestern Europe. We combine projected storm surges and river floods with probabilistic, localized relative sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios to assess the future compound flood hazard over northwestern coastal Europe in the high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. We use high-resolution, dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCM) to drive a storm surge model and a hydrological model, and analyze the joint occurrence of high coastal water levels and associated river peaks in a multivariate copula-based approach. The RCM-forced multimodel mean reasonably represents the observed spatial pattern of the dependence strength between annual maxima surge and peak river discharge, although substantial discrepancies exist between observed and simulated dependence strength. All models overestimate the dependence strength, possibly due to limitations in model parameterizations. This bias affects compound flood hazard estimates and requires further investigation. While our results suggest decreasing compound flood hazard over the majority of sites by 2050s (2040-2069) compared to the reference period (1985-2005), an increase in projected compound flood hazard is limited to around 34% of the sites. Further, we show the substantial role of SLR, a driver of compound floods, which has frequently been neglected. Our findings highlight the need to be aware of the limitations of the current generation of Earth system models in simulating coastal compound floods. KW - compound flood KW - storm surge KW - river floods KW - sea level rise KW - climate KW - change KW - Europe Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001752 SN - 2328-4277 VL - 8 IS - 11 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken, NJ ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ghani, Humaad A1 - Sobel, Edward A1 - Zeilinger, Gerold A1 - Glodny, Johannes A1 - Zapata, Sebastian A1 - Irum, Irum T1 - Palaeozoic and Pliocene tectonic evolution of the Salt Range constrained by low-temperature thermochronology JF - Terra nova N2 - The Salt Range in Pakistan exposes Precambrian to Pleistocene strata outcropping along the Salt Range Thrust (SRT). To better understand the in-situ Cambrian and Pliocene tectonic evolution of the Pakistan Subhimalaya, we have conducted low-temperature thermochronological analysis using apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He and fission track dating. We combine cooling ages from different samples located along the thrust front of the SRT into a thermal model that shows two major cooling events associated with rifting and regional erosion in the Late Palaeozoic and SRT activity since the Pliocene. Our results suggest that the SRT maintained a long-term average shortening rate of similar to 5-6 mm/yr and a high exhumation rate above the SRT ramp since similar to 4 Ma. KW - exhumation KW - fault bend fold KW - ramp KW - Salt Range Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/ter.12515 SN - 0954-4879 SN - 1365-3121 VL - 33 IS - 3 SP - 293 EP - 305 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Giarolla, Emanuel A1 - Veiga, Sandro F. A1 - Nobre, Paulo A1 - Silva, Manoel B. A1 - Capistrano, Vinicius B. A1 - Callegare, Andyara O. T1 - Sea surface height trends in the southern hemisphere oceans simulated by the Brazilian Earth System Model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios JF - Journal of southern hemisphere earth systems science N2 - The Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA2.5), while simulating the historical period proposed by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), detects an increasing trend in the sea surface height (SSH) on the southern hemisphere oceans relative to that of the pre-industrial era. The increasing trend is accentuated in the CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future scenarios with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This study sheds light on the sources of such trends in these regions. The results suggest an association with the thermal expansion of the oceans in the upper 700 m due to a gradual warming inflicted by those future scenarios. BESM-OA2.5 presents a surface height increase of 0.11 m in the historical period of 1850-2005. Concerning future projections, BESM-OA2.5 projects SSH increases of 0.14 and 0.23 m (relative to the historical 2005 value) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, by the end of 2100. These increases are predominantly in a band of latitude within 35-60 degrees S in the Atlantic and Indian oceans. The reproducibility of the trend signal detected in the BESM-OA2.5 simulations is confirmed by the results of three other CMIP5 models. KW - Brazilian Earth System Model KW - CMIP5 KW - IPCC AR5 scenarios KW - RCP4.5 KW - RCP8.5 KW - sea level trends KW - sea surface height KW - southern hemisphere oceans Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19042 SN - 2206-5865 VL - 70 IS - 1 SP - 280 EP - 289 PB - CSIRO CY - Clayton ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Glerum, Anne A1 - Brune, Sascha A1 - Stamps, D. Sarah A1 - Strecker, Manfred T1 - Victoria continental microplate dynamics controlled by the lithospheric strength distribution of the East African Rift JF - Nature Communications N2 - The Victoria microplate between the Eastern and Western Branches of the East African Rift System is one of the largest continental microplates on Earth. In striking contrast to its neighboring plates, Victoria rotates counterclockwise with respect to Nubia. The underlying cause of this distinctive rotation has remained elusive so far. Using 3D numerical models, we investigate the role of pre-existing lithospheric heterogeneities in continental microplate rotation. We find that Victoria's rotation is primarily controlled by the distribution of rheologically stronger zones that transmit the drag of the major plates to the microplate and of the mechanically weaker mobile belts surrounding Victoria that facilitate rotation. Our models reproduce Victoria's GPS-derived counterclockwise rotation as well as key complexities of the regional tectonic stress field. These results reconcile competing ideas on the opening of the rift system by highlighting differences in orientation of the far-field divergence, local extension, and the minimum horizontal stress. One of the largest continental microplates on Earth is situated in the center of the East African Rift System, and oddly, the Victoria microplate rotates counterclockwise with respect to the neighboring African tectonic plate. Here, the authors' modelling results suggest that Victoria microplate rotation is caused by edge-driven lithospheric processes related to the specific geometry of rheologically weak and strong regions. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16176-x SN - 2041-1723 VL - 11 IS - 1 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Govin, Gwladys A1 - van der Beek, Pieter A. A1 - Najman, Yani A1 - Millar, Ian A1 - Gemignani, Lorenzo A1 - Huyghe, Pascale A1 - Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume A1 - Bernet, Matthias A1 - Mark, Chris A1 - Wijbrans, Jan T1 - Early onset and late acceleration of rapid exhumation in the Namche Barwa syntaxis, eastern Himalaya JF - Geology N2 - The Himalayan syntaxes, characterized by extreme rates of rock exhumation co-located with major trans-orogenic rivers, figure prominently in the debate on tectonic versus erosional forcing of exhumation. Both the mechanism and timing of rapid exhumation of the Namche Barwa massif in the eastern syntaxis remain controversial. It has been argued that coupling between crustal rock advection and surface erosion initiated in the late Miocene (8-10 Ma). Recent studies, in contrast, suggest a Quaternary onset of rapid exhumation linked to a purely tectonic mechanism. We report new multisystem detrital thermochronology data from the most proximal Neogene clastic sediments downstream of Namche Barwa and use a thermo-kinematic model constrained by new and published data to explore its exhumation history. Modeling results show that exhumation accelerated to similar to 4 km/m.y. at ca. 8 Ma and to similar to 9 km/m.y. after ca. 2 Ma. This three-stage history reconciles apparently contradictory evidence for early and late onset of rapid exhumation and suggests efficient coupling between tectonics and erosion since the late Miocene. Quaternary acceleration of exhumation is consistent with river-profile evolution and may be linked to a Quaternary river-capture event. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1130/G47720.1 SN - 0091-7613 SN - 1943-2682 VL - 48 IS - 12 SP - 1139 EP - 1143 PB - American Institute of Physics CY - Boulder ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Grotheer, Hendrik A1 - Meyer, Vera A1 - Riedel, Theran A1 - Pfalz, Gregor A1 - Mathieu, Lucie A1 - Hefter, Jens H. A1 - Gentz, Torben A1 - Lantuit, Hugues A1 - Mollennauer, Gesine A1 - Fritz, Michael T1 - Burial and origin of permafrost-derived carbon in the nearshore zone of the southern Canadian Beaufort Sea JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Detailed organic geochemical and carbon isotopic (delta C-13 and Delta C-14) analyses are performed on permafrost deposits affected by coastal erosion (Herschel Island, Canadian Beaufort Sea) and adjacent marine sediments (Herschel Basin) to understand the fate of organic carbon in Arctic nearshore environments. We use an end-member model based on the carbon isotopic composition of bulk organic matter to identify sources of organic carbon. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to quantify the contribution of coastal permafrost erosion to the sedimentary carbon budget. The models suggest that similar to 40% of all carbon released by local coastal permafrost erosion is efficiently trapped and sequestered in the nearshore zone. This highlights the importance of sedimentary traps in environments such as basins, lagoons, troughs, and canyons for the carbon sequestration in previously poorly investigated, nearshore areas. Plain Language Summary Increasing air and sea surface temperatures at high latitudes leads to accelerated thaw, destabilization, and erosion of perennially frozen soils (i.e., permafrost), which are often rich in organic carbon. Coastal erosion leads to an increased mobilization of organic carbon into the Arctic Ocean, which there can be converted into greenhouse gases and may therefore contribute to further warming. Carbon decomposition can be limited if organic matter is efficiently deposited on the seafloor, buried in marine sediments, and thus removed from the short-term carbon cycle. Basins, canyons, and troughs near the coastline can serve as sediment traps and potentially accommodate large quantities of organic carbon along the Arctic coast. Here we use biomarkers (source-specific molecules), stable carbon isotopes, and radiocarbon to identify the sources of organic carbon in the nearshore zone of the southern Canadian Beaufort Sea near Herschel Island. We quantify the contribution of coastal permafrost erosion to the sedimentary carbon budget of the area and estimate that more than a third of all carbon released by local permafrost erosion is efficiently trapped in marine sediments. This highlights the importance of regional sediment traps for carbon sequestration. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085897 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 47 IS - 3 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken, NJ ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Guzman, Diego A. A1 - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme A1 - Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario T1 - Multi-year index-based insurance for adapting Water Utility Companies to hydrological drought BT - case study of a water supply system of the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, Brazil JF - Water N2 - The sustainability of water utility companies is threatened by non-stationary drivers, such as climate and anthropogenic changes. To cope with potential economic losses, instruments such as insurance are useful for planning scenarios and mitigating impacts, but data limitations and risk uncertainties affect premium estimation and, consequently, business sustainability. This research estimated the possible economic impacts of business interruption to the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company derived from hydrological drought and how this could be mitigated with an insurance scheme. Multi-year insurance (MYI) was proposed through a set of "change" drivers: the climate driver, through forcing the water evaluation and planning system (WEAP) hydrological tool; the anthropogenic driver, through water demand projections; and the economic driver, associated with recent water price policies adopted by the utility company during water scarcity periods. In our study case, the evaluated indices showed that MYI contracts that cover only longer droughts, regardless of the magnitude, offer better financial performance than contracts that cover all events (in terms of drought duration). Moreover, through MYI contracts, we demonstrate solvency for the insurance fund in the long term and an annual average actuarially fair premium close to the total expected revenue reduction. KW - multi-year insurance KW - climate change KW - hydrological drought KW - water KW - security and economy Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/w12112954 SN - 2073-4441 VL - 12 IS - 11 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Heeschen, Katja U. A1 - Janocha, Julian A1 - Spangenberg, Erik A1 - Schicks, Judith Maria A1 - Giese, Ronny T1 - The impact of ice on the tensile strength of unconsolidated sand BT - a model for gas hydrate-bearing sands? JF - Marine and petroleum geology N2 - Tensile strength is an important parameter when it comes to predictions of potential fracturing of sediments by natural processes such as the emplacement of ice or gas hydrate lenses, as well as anthropogenic fracturing or else the stability of engineering constructions such as boreholes. Yet, tensile strength (sigma(tau)) measurements of unconsolidated ice-bearing or gas hydrate-bearing sands are scarce and affected by a large variability.
In the course of the SUGAR project we successfully used ice as a model for pore-filling and "load-bearing" gas hydrate in sand to determine compressional wave velocity. We were thus able to verify comparable formation characteristics and morphologies of ice and gas hydrate within the pore space. As these are important values for the tensile strength of ice/hydrate-bearing sands, ice was also used as a model for hydrate-bearing sands, despite differences in the mechanical behavior and strength of pure ice and gas hydrate. Water-saturated sand cores with ice saturations (S-ice) between 0 and 100% were tested at -6.8 degrees C. The varying S-ice were a result of the freezing point depression caused by saline solutions of different concentrations. The sigma(tau) was directly determined using a sleeve-fracturing test with an internal pressure that was created within the frozen samples. The setup was also adapted to fit a pressure vessel for tests using confining pressure.
The correlation of S-ice - sigma(tau) shows an exponential increase of sigma(tau) with S-ice. Whereas at S-ice < 60% the increase is small, it is large at S-ice > 80%. In conjunction with the change in strength, the viscoelastic behavior changes. A clear peak strength occurs at S-ice > 80%. We conclude that given 60% < S-ice < 80% the pore-filling morphology of the ice converts into a frame-building habitus and at S-ice > 80% the frame gains strength while the amount of residual water decreases. Tensile failure and cracking now exceed grain boundary sliding as the prevailing failure mode. The ice morphology in the sand is non-cementing and comparable to a gas hydrate-sand mixture. KW - tensile strength KW - ice-grain mixture KW - gas hydrate KW - saline permafrost KW - ice KW - frozen soil Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2020.104607 SN - 0264-8172 SN - 1873-4073 VL - 122 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hennig, Theresa A1 - Stockmann, Madlen A1 - Kühn, Michael T1 - Simulation of diffusive uranium transport and sorption processes in the Opalinus Clay JF - Applied geochemistry : journal of the International Association of Geochemistry and Cosmochemistry N2 - Diffusive transport and sorption processes of uranium in the Swiss Opalinus Clay were investigated as a function of partial pressure of carbon dioxide pCO(2), varying mineralogy in the facies and associated changes in porewater composition. Simulations were conducted in one-dimensional diffusion models on the 100 m-scale for a time of one million years using a bottom-up approach based on mechanistic surface complexation models as well as cation exchange to quantify sorption. Speciation calculations have shown, uranium is mainly present as U(VI) and must therefore be considered as mobile for in-situ conditions. Uranium migrated up to 26 m in both, the sandy and the carbonate-rich facies, whereas in the shaly facies 16 m was the maximum. The main species was the anionic complex CaUO2(CO3)(3)(2-) . Hence, anion exclusion was taken into account and further reduced the migration distances by 30 %. The concentrations of calcium and carbonates reflected by the set pCO(2) determine speciation and activity of uranium and consequently the sorption behaviour. Our simulation results allow for the first time to prioritize on the far-field scale the governing parameters for diffusion and sorption of uranium and hence outline the sensitivity of the system. Sorption processes are controlled in descending priority by the carbonate and calcium concentrations, pH, pe and the clay mineral content. Therefore, the variation in porewater composition resulting from the heterogeneity of the facies in the Opalinus Clay formation needs to be considered in the assessment of uranium migration in the far field of a potential repository. KW - reactive transport KW - facies KW - heterogeneity KW - carbonate KW - PHREEQC KW - Mont Terri KW - speciation Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeochem.2020.104777 SN - 0883-2927 SN - 1872-9134 VL - 123 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Huang, Sichao A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike A1 - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna A1 - Zimmermann, Heike Hildegard A1 - Davydova, Paraskovya A1 - Biskaborn, Boris A1 - Shevtsova, Iuliia A1 - Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie T1 - Genetic and morphologic determination of diatom community composition in surface sediments from glacial and thermokarst lakes in the Siberian Arctic JF - Journal of paleolimnolog N2 - Lakes cover large parts of the climatically sensitive Arctic landscape and respond rapidly to environmental change. Arctic lakes have different origins and include the predominant thermokarst lakes, which are small, young and highly dynamic, as well as large, old and stable glacial lakes. Freshwater diatoms dominate the primary producer community in these lakes and can be used to detect biotic responses to climate and environmental change. We used specific diatom metabarcoding on sedimentary DNA, combined with next-generation sequencing and diatom morphology, to assess diatom diversity in five glacial and 15 thermokarst lakes within the easternmost expanse of the Siberian treeline ecotone in Chukotka, Russia. We obtained 163 verified diatom sequence types and identified 176 diatom species morphologically. Although there were large differences in taxonomic assignment using the two approaches, they showed similar high abundances and diversity of Fragilariceae and Aulacoseiraceae. In particular, the genetic approach detected hidden within-lake variations of fragilarioids in glacial lakes and dominance of centric Aulacoseira species, whereas Lindavia ocellata was predominant using morphology. In thermokarst lakes, sequence types and valve counts also detected high diversity of Fragilariaceae, which followed the vegetation gradient along the treeline. Ordination analyses of the genetic data from glacial and thermokarst lakes suggest that concentrations of sulfate (SO42-), an indicator of the activity of sulfate-reducing microbes under anoxic conditions, and bicarbonate (HCO3-), which relates to surrounding vegetation, have a significant influence on diatom community composition. For thermokarst lakes, we also identified lake depth as an important variable, but SO42- best explains diatom diversity derived from genetic data, whereas HCO3- best explains the data from valve counts. Higher diatom diversity was detected in glacial lakes, most likely related to greater lake age and different edaphic settings, which gave rise to diversification and endemism. In contrast, small, dynamic thermokarst lakes are inhabited by stress-tolerant fragilarioids and are related to different vegetation types along the treeline ecotone. Our study demonstrated that genetic investigations of lake sediments can be used to interpret climate and environmental responses of diatoms. It also showed how lake type affects diatom diversity, and that such genetic analyses can be used to track diatom community changes under ongoing warming in the Arctic. KW - diatoms KW - diversity KW - glacial lakes KW - sedimentary DNA KW - Siberian arctic KW - thermokarst Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-020-00133-1 SN - 0921-2728 SN - 1573-0417 VL - 64 IS - 3 SP - 225 EP - 242 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hudson, Paul T1 - The affordability of flood risk property-level adaptation measures JF - Risk Analysis N2 - The affordability of property-level adaptation measures against flooding is crucial due to the movement toward integrated flood risk management, which requires the individuals threatened by flooding to actively manage flooding. It is surprising to find that affordability is not often discussed, given the important roles that affordability and social justice play regarding flood risk management. This article provides a starting point for investigating the potential rate of unaffordability of flood risk property-level adaptation measures across Europe using two definitions of affordability, which are combined with two different affordability thresholds from within flood risk research. It uses concepts of investment and payment affordability, with affordability thresholds based on residual income and expenditure definitions of unaffordability. These concepts, in turn, are linked with social justice through fairness concerns, in that, all should have equal capability to act, of which affordability is one avenue. In doing so, it was found that, for a large proportion of Europe, property owners generally cannot afford to make one-time payment of the cost of protective measures. These can be made affordable with installment payment mechanisms or similar mechanisms that spread costs over time. Therefore, the movement toward greater obligations for flood-prone residents to actively adapt to flooding should be accompanied by socially accessible financing mechanisms. KW - Affordability KW - flood risk KW - social justice KW - risk reduction Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13465 SN - 0272-4332 SN - 1539-6924 VL - 40 IS - 6 SP - 1151 EP - 1167 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Izgi, Gizem A1 - Eken, Tuna A1 - Gaebler, Peter A1 - Eulenfeld, Tom A1 - Taymaz, Tuncay T1 - Crustal seismic attenuation parameters in the western region of the North Anatolian Fault Zone JF - Journal of geodynamics N2 - Detailed knowledge of the crustal structure along the North Anatolian Fault Zone can help in understanding past and present tectonic processes in relation to the deformation history. To estimate the frequency-dependent crustal attenuation parameters beneath the western part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone we apply acoustic radiative transfer theory under the assumption of multiple isotropic scattering to generate synthetic seismogram envelopes. The inversion depends on finding an optimal fit between observed and synthetically computed coda wave envelopes in five frequency bands. 2-D lateral variation of intrinsic and scattering attenuation at various frequencies tends to three crustal blocks (i.e., Armutlu-Almacik, Istanbul-Zonguldak and Sakarya Zones) separated by the southern and northern branches of the western part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. Overall, scattering attenuation appears to be dominant over intrinsic attenuation in the study area at lower frequencies. Relatively low attenuation properties are observed beneath the older Istanbul Zone whereas higher attenuation properties are found for the younger Sakarya Zone. The Armutlu Almacik Zone exhibits more complex lateral variations. Very high attenuation values towards the west characterize the area of the Kuzuluk Basin, a pull-apart basin formed under west-east extension. Our coda-derived moment magnitudes are similar to the local magnitude estimates that were previously calculated for the same earthquakes. For smaller earthquakes (M-L < 2.5), however, the relation between local and moment magnitudes appears to lose its coherency. This may stem from various reasons including the use of seismic data recorded in finite sampling interval, possible biases in local magnitude estimates of earthquake catalogues as well as biases due to wrong assumptions to consider anelastic attenuation terms. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2020.101694 SN - 0264-3707 VL - 134 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jones, Benjamin M. A1 - Arp, Christopher D. A1 - Grosse, Guido A1 - Nitze, Ingmar A1 - Lara, Mark J. A1 - Whitman, Matthew S. A1 - Farquharson, Louise M. A1 - Kanevskiy, Mikhail A1 - Parsekian, Andrew D. A1 - Breen, Amy L. A1 - Ohara, Nori A1 - Rangel, Rodrigo Correa A1 - Hinkel, Kenneth M. T1 - Identifying historical and future potential lake drainage events on the western Arctic coastal plain of Alaska JF - Permafrost and Periglacial Processes N2 - Arctic lakes located in permafrost regions are susceptible to catastrophic drainage. In this study, we reconstructed historical lake drainage events on the western Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska between 1955 and 2017 using USGS topographic maps, historical aerial photography (1955), and Landsat Imagery (ca. 1975, ca. 2000, and annually since 2000). We identified 98 lakes larger than 10 ha that partially (>25% of area) or completely drained during the 62-year period. Decadal-scale lake drainage rates progressively declined from 2.0 lakes/yr (1955-1975), to 1.6 lakes/yr (1975-2000), and to 1.2 lakes/yr (2000-2017) in the ~30,000-km(2) study area. Detailed Landsat trend analysis between 2000 and 2017 identified two years, 2004 and 2006, with a cluster (five or more) of lake drainages probably associated with bank overtopping or headward erosion. To identify future potential lake drainages, we combined the historical lake drainage observations with a geospatial dataset describing lake elevation, hydrologic connectivity, and adjacent lake margin topographic gradients developed with a 5-m-resolution digital surface model. We identified ~1900 lakes likely to be prone to drainage in the future. Of the 20 lakes that drained in the most recent study period, 85% were identified in this future lake drainage potential dataset. Our assessment of historical lake drainage magnitude, mechanisms and pathways, and identification of potential future lake drainages provides insights into how arctic lowland landscapes may change and evolve in the coming decades to centuries. KW - Arctic lakes KW - drained lake basins KW - lake drainage KW - permafrost regions KW - thermokarst lakes Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ppp.2038 VL - 31 IS - 1 SP - 110 EP - 127 PB - Wiley CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Karamzadeh Toularoud, Nasim A1 - Heimann, Sebastian A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Krüger, Frank T1 - Earthquake source arrays BT - optimal configuration and applications in crustal structure studies JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - A collection of earthquake sources recorded at a single station, under specific conditions, are considered as a source array (SA), that is interpreted as if earthquake sources originate at the station location and are recorded at the source location. Then, array processing methods, that is array beamforming, are applicable to analyse the recorded signals. A possible application is to use source array multiple event techniques to locate and characterize near-source scatterers and structural interfaces. In this work the aim is to facilitate the use of earthquake source arrays by presenting an automatic search algorithm to configure the source array elements. We developed a procedure to search for an optimal source array element distribution given an earthquake catalogue including accurate origin time and hypocentre locations. The objective function of the optimization process can be flexibly defined for each application to ensure the prerequisites (criteria) of making a source array. We formulated four quantitative criteria as subfunctions and used the weighted sum technique to combine them in one single scalar function. The criteria are: (1) to control the accuracy of the slowness vector estimation using the time domain beamforming method, (2) to measure the waveform coherency of the array elements, (3) to select events with lower location error and (4) to select traces with high energy of specific phases, that is, sp- or ps-phases. The proposed procedure is verified using synthetic data as well as real examples for the Vogtland region in Northwest Bohemia. We discussed the possible application of the optimized source arrays to identify the location of scatterers in the velocity model by presenting a synthetic test and an example using real waveforms. KW - location of scatterers KW - optimization KW - source array design Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa002 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 221 IS - 1 SP - 352 EP - 370 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kaya, Mustafa Yuecel A1 - Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume A1 - Proust, Jean-Noël A1 - Roperch, Pierrick A1 - Meijer, Niels A1 - Frieling, Joost A1 - Fioroni, Chiara A1 - Altiner, Sevinç Özkan A1 - Stoica, Marius A1 - Aminov, Jovid A1 - Mamtimin, Mehmut A1 - Guo, Zhaojie T1 - Cretaceous evolution of the Central Asian Proto-Paratethys Sea BT - tectonic, eustatic, and climatic controls JF - Tectonics N2 - The timing and mechanisms of the Cretaceous sea incursions into Central Asia are still poorly constrained. We provide a new chronostratigraphic framework based on biostratigraphy and magnetostratigraphy together with detailed paleoenvironmental analyses of Cretaceous records of the proto-Paratethys Sea fluctuations in the Tajik and Tarim basins. The Early Cretaceous marine incursion in the western Tajik Basin was followed by major marine incursions during the Cenomanian (ca. 100 Ma) and Santonian (ca. 86 Ma) that reached far into the eastern Tajik and Tarim basins. These marine incursions were separated by a Turonian-Coniacian (ca. 92-86 Ma) regression. Basin-wide tectonic subsidence analyses imply that the Early Cretaceous sea incursion into the Tajik Basin was related to increased Pamir tectonism. We find that thrusting along the northern edge of the Pamir at ca. 130-90 Ma resulted in increased subsidence in a retro-arc basin setting. This tectonic event and coeval eustatic highstand resulted in the maximum observed geographic extent of the sea during the Cenomanian (ca. 100 Ma). The following Turonian-Coniacian (ca. 92-86 Ma) major regression, driven by eustasy, coincides with a sharp slowdown in tectonic subsidence during the late orogenic unloading period with limited thrusting. The Santonian (ca. 86 Ma) major sea incursion was likely controlled by eustasy as evidenced by the coeval fluctuations in the west Siberian Basin. An early Maastrichtian cooling (ca. 71-70 Ma), potentially connected to global Late Cretaceous trends, is inferred from the replacement of mollusk-rich limestones by bryozoan- and echinoderm-rich limestones. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019TC005983 SN - 0278-7407 SN - 1944-9194 VL - 39 IS - 9 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Klose, Tim A1 - Chaparro, M. Carme A1 - Schilling, Frank A1 - Butscher, Christoph A1 - Klumbach, Steffen A1 - Blum, Philipp T1 - Fluid flow simulations of a large-scale borehole leakage experiment JF - Transport in Porous Media N2 - Borehole leakage is a common and complex issue. Understanding the fluid flow characteristics of a cemented area inside a borehole is crucial to monitor and quantify the wellbore integrity as well as to find solutions to minimise existing leakages. In order to improve our understanding of the flow behaviour of cemented boreholes, we investigated experimental data of a large-scale borehole leakage tests by means of numerical modelling using three different conceptual models. The experiment was performed with an autoclave system consisting of two vessels bridged by a cement-filled casing. After a partial bleed-off at the well-head, a sustained casing pressure was observed due to fluid flow through the cementsteel composite. The aim of our simulations is to investigate and quantify the permeability of the cement-steel composite. From our model results, we conclude that the flow occurred along a preferential flow path at the cement-steel interface. Thus, the inner part of the cement core was impermeable during the duration of the experiment. The preferential flow path can be described as a highly permeable and highly porous area with an aperture of about 5 mu m and a permeability of 3 . 10(-12) m(2) (3 Darcy). It follows that the fluid flow characteristics of a cemented area inside a borehole cannot be described using one permeability value for the entire cement-steel composite. Furthermore, it can be concluded that the quality of the cement and the filling process regarding the cement-steel interface is crucial to minimize possible well leakages. KW - borehole leakage KW - sustained casing pressure KW - permeability test KW - cement KW - modelling Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11242-020-01504-y SN - 0169-3913 SN - 1573-1634 VL - 136 IS - 1 SP - 125 EP - 145 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Koyan, Philipp A1 - Tronicke, Jens T1 - 3D modeling of ground-penetrating radar data across a realistic sedimentary model JF - Computers & geosciences : an international journal devoted to the publication of papers on all aspects of geocomputation and to the distribution of computer programs and test data sets ; an official journal of the International Association for Mathematical Geology N2 - Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) is an established geophysical tool to explore a wide range of near-surface environments. Today, the use of synthetic GPR data is largely limited to 2D because 3D modeling is computationally more expensive. In fact, only recent developments of modeling tools and powerful hardware allow for a time-efficient computation of extensive 3D data sets. Thus, 3D subsurface models and resulting GPR data sets, which are of great interest to develop and evaluate novel approaches in data analysis and interpretation, have not been made publicly available up to now.
We use a published hydrofacies data set of an aquifer-analog study within fluvio-glacial deposits to infer a realistic 3D porosity model showing heterogeneities at multiple spatial scales. Assuming fresh-water saturated sediments, we generate synthetic 3D GPR data across this model using novel GPU-acceleration included in the open-source software gprMax. We present a numerical approach to examine 3D wave-propagation effects in modeled GPR data. Using the results of this examination study, we conduct a spatial model decomposition to enable a computationally efficient 3D simulation of a typical GPR reflection data set across the entire model surface. We process the resulting GPR data set using a standard 3D structural imaging sequence and compare the results to selected input data to demonstrate the feasibility and potential of the presented modeling studies. We conclude on conceivable applications of our 3D GPR reflection data set and the underlying porosity model, which are both publicly available and, thus, can support future methodological developments in GPR and other near-surface geophysical techniques. KW - Applied geophysics KW - Ground-penetrating radar KW - 3D modeling Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2020.104422 SN - 0098-3004 SN - 1873-7803 VL - 137 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Krmíček, Lukáš A1 - Timmerman, Martin Jan A1 - Ziemann, Martin Andreas A1 - Sudo, Masafumi A1 - Ulrych, Jaromir T1 - 40Ar/39Ar step-heating dating of phlogopite and kaersutite megacrysts from the Železná hůrka (Eisenbühl) Pleistocene scoria cone, Czech Republic JF - Geologica Carpathica N2 - (40)A/Ar-39 step-heating of mica and amphibole megacrysts from hauyne-bearing olivine melilitite scoria/tephra from the Zelezna hurka yielded a 435 +/- 108 ka isotope correlation age for phlogopite and a more imprecise 1.55 Ma total gas age of the kaersutite megacryst. The amphibole megacrysts may constitute the first, and the younger phlogopite megacrysts the later phase of mafic, hydrous melilitic magma crystallization. It cannot be ruled out that the amphibole megacrysts are petrogenetically unrelated to tephra and phlogopite megacrysts and were derived from mantle xenoliths or disaggregated older, deep crustal pegmatites. This is in line both with the rarity of amphibole at Zelezna hurka and with the observed signs of magmatic resorption at the edges of amphibole crystals. KW - Bohemian Massif KW - Zelezna hurka KW - Eisenbuhl KW - argon dating KW - mica KW - amphibole KW - melilitite Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.31577/GeolCarp.71.4.6 SN - 1335-0552 SN - 1336-8052 VL - 71 IS - 4 SP - 382 EP - 387 PB - Veda CY - Bratislava ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kruse, Stefan A1 - Kolmogorov, Aleksey I. A1 - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Long-lived larch clones may conserve adaptations that could restrict treeline migration in northern Siberia JF - Ecology and evolution N2 - The occurrence of refugia beyond the arctic treeline and genetic adaptation therein play a crucial role of largely unknown effect size. While refugia have potential for rapidly colonizing the tundra under global warming, the taxa may be maladapted to the new environmental conditions. Understanding the genetic composition and age of refugia is thus crucial for predicting any migration response. Here, we genotype 194 larch individuals from an similar to 1.8 km(2)area in northcentral Siberia on the southern Taimyr Peninsula by applying an assay of 16 nuclear microsatellite markers. For estimating the age of clonal individuals, we counted tree rings at sections along branches to establish a lateral growth rate that was then combined with geographic distance. Findings reveal that the predominant reproduction type is clonal (58.76%) by short distance spreading of ramets. One outlier of clones 1 km apart could have been dispersed by reindeer. In clonal groups and within individuals, we find that somatic mutations accumulate with geographic distance. Clonal groups of two or more individuals are observed. Clonal age estimates regularly suggest individuals as old as 2,200 years, which coincides with a major environmental change that forced a treeline retreat in the region. We conclude that individuals with clonal growth mode were naturally selected as it lowers the likely risk of extinction under a harsh environment. We discuss this legacy from the past that might now be a maladaptation and hinder expansion under currently strongly increasing temperatures. KW - adaptation KW - clonal growth KW - growth rate KW - Larix KW - leading edge KW - treeline KW - migration Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.6660 SN - 2045-7758 VL - 10 IS - 18 SP - 10017 EP - 10030 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Krüger, Frank A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Hannemann, Katrin T1 - Mapping of Eastern North Atlantic Ocean seismicity from Po/So observations at a mid-aperture seismological broad-band deep sea array JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - A mid-aperture broad-band test array (OBS array DOCTAR) was deployed from June 2011 to April 2012 about 100 km north of the Gloria fault in the Eastern North Atlantic in about 5000 m water depth. In addition arrays were installed on Madeira Island and in western Portugal mainland. For the first time in the Eastern North Atlantic, we recorded a large number of high frequency Po and So waves from local and regional small and moderate earthquakes (M-L < 4). An incoherent beamforming method was adapted to scan continuous data for such Po and So arrivals applying a sliding window waveform migration and frequency-wavenumber technique. We identify about 320 Po and 1550 So arrivals and compare the phase onsets with the ISC catalogue (ISC 2015) for the same time span. Up to a distance of 6 degrees to the DOCTAR stations all events listed in the ISC catalogue could be associated to Po and So phases. Arrivals from events in more than 10 degrees distance could be identified only in some cases. Only few Po and/or So arrivals were detected for earthquakes from the European and African continental area, the continental shelf regions and for earthquakes within or northwest of the Azores plateau. Unexpectedly, earthquake clusters are detected within the oceanic plates north and south of the Gloria fault and far from plate boundaries, indicating active intraplate structures. We also observe and locate numerous small magnitude earthquakes on the segment of the Gloria fault directly south of DOCTAR, which likely coincides with the rupture of the 25 November 1941 event. Local small magnitude earthquakes located beneath DOCTAR show hypocentres up to 30 km depth and strike-slip focal mechanisms. A comparison with detections at temporary mid-aperture arrays on Madeira and in western Portugal shows that the deep ocean array performs much better than the island and the continental array regarding the detection threshold for events in the oceanic plates. We conclude that sparsely distributed mid-aperture seismic arrays in the deep ocean could decrease the detection and location threshold for seismicity with M-L < 4 in the oceanic plate and might constitute a valuable tool to monitor oceanic plate seismicity. KW - body waves KW - earthquake source observations KW - seismicity and tectonics Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa054 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 221 IS - 2 SP - 1055 EP - 1080 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER -