TY - JOUR A1 - Saha, Sourav A1 - Owen, Lewis A. A1 - Orr, Elizabeth N. A1 - Caffee, Marc W. T1 - High-frequency Holocene glacier fluctuations in the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen JF - Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal N2 - Holocene glacial chronostratigraphies in glaciated valleys spread throughout the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen, including the Himalaya, Tibet, Pamir, and Tian Shan, are developed using a landsystems approach, detailed geomorphic mapping, and new and published Be-10 surface exposure dating. New studies in the Kulti valley of Lahul and the Parkachik valley of the Nun Kun massif of the Himalaya of northern India define three glacier advances at similar to 14.7, 12.2, 0.5 ka, in addition to one historically dated late 19th Century advance in the Kulti valley, and one Late Holocene advance at similar to 0.2 ka in the Parkachik valley. Three major climatic groups (subdivided into five climatic zones) are defined across the orogen using Cluster Analysis (CA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify glaciated regions with comparable climatic characteristics to evaluate the timing, and extent of Holocene glacier advances across these regions. Our regional analyses across the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen suggest at least one Lateglacial (similar to 15.3-11.8 ka) and five Himalayan-Tibetan Holocene glacial stages (HTHS) at similar to 11.5-9.5, similar to 8.8-7.7, similar to 7.0-3.2, similar to 2.3-1.0, and <1 ka. The extent (amplitude) of glacier advances in 77 glaciated valleys is reconstructed and defined using equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs). Modern glacier hypsometries are also assessed to help explain the intra-regional variations in glacier amplitudes during each regional glacier advance. A linear inverse glacier flow model is used to decipher the net changes in temperature (Delta T) between periods of reconstructed regional glacier advances in 66 glaciated valleys across different climatic regions throughout the orogen. The Be-10, ELAs, and Delta T data suggest enhanced monsoonal and increased precipitation during the Early Holocene, followed by relative cooling and increased aridity during the Mid- and Late Holocene that influenced glaciation. The sublimation-dominated cold-based glaciers in the northern regions of Himalayan-Tibetan orogen are more affected during these shifts in climate than the temperate glaciers in the south. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. KW - Holocene KW - Glaciation Central Asia KW - Cosmogenic isotopes KW - Paleoclimate modeling KW - Equilibrium-line altitudes Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.07.021 SN - 0277-3791 VL - 220 SP - 372 EP - 400 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Saha, Sourav A1 - Owen, Lewis A. A1 - Orr, Elizabeth N. A1 - Caffee, Marc W. T1 - Cosmogenic Be-10 and equilibrium-line altitude dataset of Holocene glacier advances in the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen JF - Data in brief N2 - A comprehensive analysis of the variable temporal and spatial responses of tropical-subtropical high-altitude glaciers to climate change is critical for successful model predictions and environmental risk assessment in the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen. High-frequency Holocene glacier chronostratigraphies are therefore reconstructed in 79 glaciated valleys across the orogen using 519 published and 16 new terrestrial cosmogenic 10Be exposure age dataset. Published 10Be ages are compiled only for moraine boulders (excluding bedrock ages). These ages are recalculated using the latest ICE-D production rate calibration database and the scaling scheme models. Outliers for the individual moraine are detected using the Chauvenet's criterion. In addition, past equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) are determined using the area-altitude (AA), area accumulation ratio (AAR), and toe-headwall accumulation ratio (THAR) methods for each glacier advance. The modern maximum elevations of lateral moraines (MELM) are also used to estimate modern ELAs and as an independent check on mean ELAs derived using the above three methods. These data may serve as an essential archive for future studies focusing on the cryospheric and environmental changes in the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen. A more comprehensive analysis of the published and new 10Be ages and ELA results and a list of references are presented in Saha et al. (2019, High-frequency Holocene glacier fluctuations in the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen. Quaternary Science Reviews, 220, 372–400). KW - Cosmogenic nuclides KW - Equilibrium-line altitudes KW - Holocene KW - Central asia KW - Glaciation Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2019.104412 SN - 2352-3409 VL - 26 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - THES A1 - Bittermann, Klaus T1 - Semi-empirical sea-level modelling T1 - Semiempirische Meeresspiegelmodellierung N2 - Semi-empirical sea-level models (SEMs) exploit physically motivated empirical relationships between global sea level and certain drivers, in the following global mean temperature. This model class evolved as a supplement to process-based models (Rahmstorf (2007)) which were unable to fully represent all relevant processes. They thus failed to capture past sea-level change (Rahmstorf et al. (2012)) and were thought likely to underestimate future sea-level rise. Semi-empirical models were found to be a fast and useful tool for exploring the uncertainties in future sea-level rise, consistently giving significantly higher projections than process-based models. In the following different aspects of semi-empirical sea-level modelling have been studied. Models were first validated using various data sets of global sea level and temperature. SEMs were then used on the glacier contribution to sea level, and to infer past global temperature from sea-level data via inverse modelling. Periods studied encompass the instrumental period, covered by tide gauges (starting 1700 CE (Common Era) in Amsterdam) and satellites (first launched in 1992 CE), the era from 1000 BCE (before CE) to present, and the full length of the Holocene (using proxy data). Accordingly different data, model formulations and implementations have been used. It could be shown in Bittermann et al. (2013) that SEMs correctly predict 20th century sea-level when calibrated with data until 1900 CE. SEMs also turned out to give better predictions than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report (AR4, IPCC (2007)) models, for the period from 1961–2003 CE. With the first multi-proxy reconstruction of global sea-level as input, estimate of the human-induced component of modern sea-level change and projections of future sea-level rise were calculated (Kopp et al. (2016)). It turned out with 90% confidence that more than 40 % of the observed 20th century sea-level rise is indeed anthropogenic. With the new semi-empirical and IPCC (2013) 5th assessment report (AR5) projections the gap between SEM and process-based model projections closes, giving higher credibility to both. Combining all scenarios, from strong mitigation to business as usual, a global sea-level rise of 28–131 cm relative to 2000 CE, is projected with 90% confidence. The decision for a low carbon pathway could halve the expected global sea-level rise by 2100 CE. Present day temperature and thus sea level are driven by the globally acting greenhouse-gas forcing. Unlike that, the Milankovich forcing, acting on Holocene timescales, results mainly in a northern-hemisphere temperature change. Therefore a semi-empirical model can be driven with northernhemisphere temperatures, which makes it possible to model the main subcomponent of sea-level change over this period. It showed that an additional positive constant rate of the order of the estimated Antarctic sea-level contribution is then required to explain the sea-level evolution over the Holocene. Thus the global sea level, following the climatic optimum, can be interpreted as the sum of a temperature induced sea-level drop and a positive long-term contribution, likely an ongoing response to deglaciation coming from Antarctica. N2 - Semiempirische Meeresspiegelmodelle (SEMe) nutzen die physikalisch motivierte, empirische Beziehung des globalen Meeresspiegels zu einem bestimmten Antrieb. Im Folgenden ist das die mittlere globale Temperatur. Diese Modellklasse entstand als Ergänzung zu prozeßbasierten Modellen, die nicht alle relevanten Prozesse abbilden konnten (Rahmstorf (2007)) und die deshalb weder den beobachteten Meeresspiegel erklären konnten (Rahmstorf et al. (2012)) noch vertrauenswürdige Zukunftsprojektionen lieferten. Semiempirische Modelle sind eine gute und schnelle Option, die Unsicherheit im zukünftigen Meeresspiegelanstieg auszuloten, wobei sie konsistent höhere Zukunftsprojektionen lieferten als prozeßbasierte Modelle. Im Folgenden wurden verschiedene Aspekte der semiempirischen Meeresspiegelmodellierung untersucht. Modelle wurden erst mit verschiedenen globalen Temperatur- und Meeresspiegeldatensätzen validiert. SEMe wurden dann auf den Meeresspiegelbeitrag von Gletschern angewandt und genutzt, um die globale Temperatur aus Meeresspiegeldaten abzuleiten. Die untersuchten Zeiträume variieren zwischen dem instrumentellen Abschnitt mit Pegelstandsmessungen (seit dem Jahr 1700 in Amsterdam) und Satellitendaten (seit 1992), dem Zeitraum seit 1000 vor Christus und dem gesamten Holozän (mittels Proxydaten). Entsprechend wurden verschiedene Daten, Modellformulierungen und -implementationen benutzt. Es konnte in Bittermann et al. (2013) gezeigt werden, dass SEMe den beobachteten Meeresspiegel des 20sten Jahrhunderts korrekt vorhersagen können, wenn sie bis zum Jahr 1900 kalibriert wurden. Auch für den Zeitraum 1961 bis 2003 lieferten SEMe bessere Vorhersagen als der vierte Sachstandsbericht des Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR4, IPCC (2007)). Mit der ersten globalen multi-proxy Rekonstruktion des globalen Meeresspiegels als Input konnten sowohl der anthropogene Anteil des modernen Meeresspiegelanstiegs als auch Zukunftsprojektionen berechnet werden (Kopp et al. (2016)). Es zeigt sich mit 90% Sicherheit, dass mehr als 40 % des beobachteten Meeresspiegelanstiegs im 20sten Jahrhundert anthropogenen Ursprungs sind. Mit den neuen semiempirischen Zukunftsprojektionen und denen des fünften Sachstandsberichtes (AR5) des IPCC (2013) läßt sich die Kluft zwischen SEMen und prozeßbasierten Modellen schließen, was beide vertrauenswürdiger macht. Über alle Szenarien hinweg, von starker Treibhausgaseinsparung bis zum ungebremsten Ausstoß, ergibt sich, mit 90% Sicherheit, zwischen 2000 und 2100 ein Meeresspiegelanstieg von 28 bis 131 cm. Die Entscheidung starker Treibhausgaseinsparungen kann den erwarteten globalen Meeresspiegelanstieg im Jahr 2100 halbieren. Die gegenwärtige globale Temperatur, und damit der globale Meeresspiegel, werden von dem global wirkenden Treibhausgasforcing bestimmt. Im Gegensatz dazu wirkt das orbitale Forcing, welches über Holozän-Zeitskalen dominiert, hauptsächlich auf die Nordhemisphäre. Deshalb kann man ein SEM mit Nordhemisphärentemperaturen antreiben und dadurch die Hauptkomponente der Meeresspiegeländerung über das Holozän simulieren. Es stellte sich heraus, dass eine zusätzliche konstante Rate, von der Größenordnung des antarktischen Beitrags zum Meeresspiegel, nötig ist, um den Meeresspiegelverlauf des Holozäns zu erklären. Der Meeresspiegel seit dem Holozän-Klimaoptimum kann also als eine Summe von temperaturbedingtem Fallen und einem langfristigen positiven Beitrag, wahrscheinlich einer andauernden Reaktion auf die Deglaziation der Antarktis, interpretiert werden. KW - sea level KW - Meeresspiegel KW - climate change KW - Klimawandel KW - projections KW - Projektionen KW - anthropogenic sea level KW - anthropogener Meeresspiegel KW - Holocene KW - Holozän KW - semi-empirical models KW - semiempirische Modelle Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-93881 ER -