TY - GEN A1 - Ayzel, Georgy A1 - Varentsova, Natalia A1 - Erina, Oxana A1 - Sokolov, Dmitriy A1 - Kurochkina, Liubov A1 - Moreydo, Vsevolod T1 - OpenForecast BT - The First Open-Source Operational Runoff Forecasting System in Russia T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The development and deployment of new operational runoff forecasting systems are a strong focus of the scientific community due to the crucial importance of reliable and timely runoff predictions for early warnings of floods and flashfloods for local businesses and communities. OpenForecast, the first operational runoff forecasting system in Russia, open for public use, is presented in this study. We developed OpenForecast based only on open-source software and data-GR4J hydrological model, ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis, and ICON deterministic short-range meteorological forecasts. Daily forecasts were generated for two basins in the European part of Russia. Simulation results showed a limited efficiency in reproducing the spring flood of 2019. Although the simulations managed to capture the timing of flood peaks, they failed in estimating flood volume. However, further implementation of the parsimonious data assimilation technique significantly alleviates simulation errors. The revealed limitations of the proposed operational runoff forecasting system provided a foundation to outline its further development and improvement. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1338 KW - OpenForecast KW - open KW - operational service KW - runoff KW - forecasting KW - Russia Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-473295 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1338 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ayzel, Georgy A1 - Varentsova, Natalia A1 - Erina, Oxana A1 - Sokolov, Dmitriy A1 - Kurochkina, Liubov A1 - Moreydo, Vsevolod T1 - OpenForecast BT - The First Open-Source Operational Runoff Forecasting System in Russia JF - Water : Molecular Diversity Preservation International N2 - The development and deployment of new operational runoff forecasting systems are a strong focus of the scientific community due to the crucial importance of reliable and timely runoff predictions for early warnings of floods and flashfloods for local businesses and communities. OpenForecast, the first operational runoff forecasting system in Russia, open for public use, is presented in this study. We developed OpenForecast based only on open-source software and data-GR4J hydrological model, ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis, and ICON deterministic short-range meteorological forecasts. Daily forecasts were generated for two basins in the European part of Russia. Simulation results showed a limited efficiency in reproducing the spring flood of 2019. Although the simulations managed to capture the timing of flood peaks, they failed in estimating flood volume. However, further implementation of the parsimonious data assimilation technique significantly alleviates simulation errors. The revealed limitations of the proposed operational runoff forecasting system provided a foundation to outline its further development and improvement. KW - OpenForecast KW - open KW - operational service KW - runoff KW - forecasting KW - Russia Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/w11081546 SN - 2073-4441 VL - 11 IS - 8 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gassmann, Shari-Estelle A1 - Nunkoo, Robin A1 - Tiberius, Victor A1 - Kraus, Sascha T1 - My home is your castle BT - forecasting the future of accommodation sharing JF - International journal of contemporary hospitality management N2 - Purpose This paper aims to formulate the most probable future scenario for the accommodation sharing sector within the next five to ten years. It addresses the following six thematic aspects: relevance, different forms of accommodation sharing, users, hosts, platforms, and finally, industry regulation. Design/methodology/approach This study identifies the most likely holistic future scenario by conducting a two-stage Delphi study involving 59 expert panelists. It addresses 33 projections for six thematic sections of the accommodation sharing industry: relevance, different forms of accommodation sharing, users, hosts, platforms, and finally, industry regulation. Findings The results indicate that the number of shared accommodations and users of home-sharing will increase. Moreover, the cost advantage is the predominant driver for users to engage in the accommodation sharing segment, and for the hosts, the generation of an extra income is the primary incentive. Finally, the regulation within this industry is expected to be more effective in the foreseeable future. Practical implications The results are critical, not only to advance our theoretical understanding and stimulate critical discussions on the long-term development of accommodation sharing but also to assist governments and policymakers who have an interest in developing and regulating this sector and developers seeking business opportunities. Originality/value While there is ample knowledge about the past and current development of accommodation sharing in tourism, little is understood about its potential future development and implications for consumers, the economy, and society. To date, no scientific research is available that develops scenarios about the future of accommodation sharing. KW - forecasting KW - Delphi KW - scenario KW - Airbnb KW - accommodation sharing Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCHM-06-2020-0596 SN - 0959-6119 VL - 33 IS - 2 SP - 467 EP - 489 PB - Emerald CY - Bingley ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Brietzke, Gilbert B. A1 - Hinzen, Klaus-G. T1 - Comparison of deterministic and stochastic earthquake simulators for fault interactions in the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment requires a stochastic description of earthquake occurrences. While short-term seismicity models are well-constrained by observations, the recurrences of characteristic on-fault earthquakes are only derived from theoretical considerations, uncertain palaeo-events or proxy data. Despite the involved uncertainties and complexity, simple statistical models for a quasi-period recurrence of on-fault events are implemented in seismic hazard assessments. To test the applicability of statistical models, such as the Brownian relaxation oscillator or the stress release model, we perform a systematic comparison with deterministic simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction, high-resolution representations of fault systems and quasi-dynamic rupture propagation. For the specific fault network of the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany, we run both stochastic and deterministic model simulations based on the same fault geometries and stress interactions. Our results indicate that the stochastic simulators are able to reproduce the first-order characteristics of the major earthquakes on isolated faults as well as for coupled faults with moderate stress interactions. However, we find that all tested statistical models fail to reproduce the characteristics of strongly coupled faults, because multisegment rupturing resulting from a spatiotemporally correlated stress field is underestimated in the stochastic simulators. Our results suggest that stochastic models have to be extended by multirupture probability distributions to provide more reliable results. KW - Earthquake interaction KW - forecasting KW - and prediction KW - Seismicity and tectonics KW - Statistical seismology Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggt271 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 195 IS - 1 SP - 684 EP - 694 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Leung, Tsz Yan A1 - Leutbecher, Martin A1 - Reich, Sebastian A1 - Shepherd, Theodore G. T1 - Atmospheric Predictability: Revisiting the Inherent Finite-Time Barrier JF - Journal of the atmospheric sciences N2 - The accepted idea that there exists an inherent finite-time barrier in deterministically predicting atmospheric flows originates from Edward N. Lorenz’s 1969 work based on two-dimensional (2D) turbulence. Yet, known analytic results on the 2D Navier–Stokes (N-S) equations suggest that one can skillfully predict the 2D N-S system indefinitely far ahead should the initial-condition error become sufficiently small, thereby presenting a potential conflict with Lorenz’s theory. Aided by numerical simulations, the present work reexamines Lorenz’s model and reviews both sides of the argument, paying particular attention to the roles played by the slope of the kinetic energy spectrum. It is found that when this slope is shallower than −3, the Lipschitz continuity of analytic solutions (with respect to initial conditions) breaks down as the model resolution increases, unless the viscous range of the real system is resolved—which remains practically impossible. This breakdown leads to the inherent finite-time limit. If, on the other hand, the spectral slope is steeper than −3, then the breakdown does not occur. In this way, the apparent contradiction between the analytic results and Lorenz’s theory is reconciled. KW - Atmosphere KW - Turbulence KW - Error analysis KW - Spectral analysis KW - models KW - distribution KW - Numerical weather prediction KW - forecasting Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-19-0057.1 SN - 0022-4928 SN - 1520-0469 VL - 76 IS - 12 SP - 3883 EP - 3892 PB - American Meteorological Soc. CY - Boston ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Horvitz, Nir A1 - He, Yanping A1 - Kuparinen, Anna A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Katul, Gabriel G. T1 - Spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in future environments T2 - Ecology letters N2 - P>Despite ample research, understanding plant spread and predicting their ability to track projected climate changes remain a formidable challenge to be confronted. We modelled the spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in current and future (c. 2060) conditions, accounting for variation in 10 key dispersal, demographic and environmental factors affecting population spread. Predicted spread rates vary substantially among 12 study species, primarily due to inter-specific variation in maturation age, fecundity and seed terminal velocity. Future spread is predicted to be faster if atmospheric CO2 enrichment would increase fecundity and advance maturation, irrespective of the projected changes in mean surface windspeed. Yet, for only a few species, predicted wind-driven spread will match future climate changes, conditioned on seed abscission occurring only in strong winds and environmental conditions favouring high survival of the farthest-dispersed seeds. Because such conditions are unlikely, North American wind-dispersed trees are expected to lag behind the projected climate range shift. KW - Climate change KW - demography KW - dispersal KW - fat-tailed dispersal kernels KW - forecasting KW - forests KW - invasion by extremes KW - long-distance dispersal KW - mechanistic models KW - plant migration KW - population spread KW - range expansion KW - survival KW - wind dispersal Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01573.x SN - 1461-023X VL - 14 IS - 3 SP - 211 EP - 219 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pennekamp, Frank A1 - Iles, Alison C. A1 - Garland, Joshua A1 - Brennan, Georgina A1 - Brose, Ulrich A1 - Gaedke, Ursula A1 - Jacob, Ute A1 - Kratina, Pavel A1 - Matthews, Blake A1 - Munch, Stephan A1 - Novak, Mark A1 - Palamara, Gian Marco A1 - Rall, Bjorn C. A1 - Rosenbaum, Benjamin A1 - Tabi, Andrea A1 - Ward, Colette A1 - Williams, Richard A1 - Ye, Hao A1 - Petchey, Owen L. T1 - The intrinsic predictability of ecological time series and its potential to guide forecasting JF - Ecological monographs : a publication of the Ecological Society of America. KW - empirical dynamic modelling KW - forecasting KW - information theory KW - permutation entropy KW - population dynamics KW - time series analysis Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1359 SN - 0012-9615 SN - 1557-7015 VL - 89 IS - 2 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Prommer, Lisa A1 - Tiberius, Victor A1 - Kraus, Sascha T1 - Exploring the future of startup leadership development JF - Journal of Business Venturing Insights N2 - Leadership development (LD) is a crucial success factor for startups to increase their human capital, survival rate, and overall performance. However, only a minority of young ventures actively engage in LD, and research rather focuses on large corporations and SMEs, which do not share the typical startup characteristics such as a rather young workforce, flat hierarchies, resource scarcity, and high time pressure. To overcome this practical and theoretical lack of knowledge, we engage in foresight and explore which leadership development techniques will be most relevant for startups within the next five to ten years. To formulate the most probable scenario, we conduct an international, two-stage Delphi study with 27 projections among industry experts. According to the expert panel, the majority of startups will engage in leadership development over the next decade. Most startups will aim to develop the leadership capabilities of their workforce as a whole and use external support. The most prominent prospective LD measures in startups include experiential learning methods, such as action learning, developmental job assignments, multi-rater feedback, as well as digital experiential learning programs, and developmental relationships such as coaching in digital one-to-one sessions. Self-managed learning will play a more important role than formal training. KW - startup KW - leadership development KW - Delphi study KW - forecasting KW - foresigh Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbvi.2020.e00200 SN - 2352-6734 VL - 14 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - GEN A1 - Semke, Lisa-Marie A1 - Tiberius, Victor T1 - Corporate Foresight and Dynamic Capabilities BT - An Exploratory Study T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Firms engage in forecasting and foresight activities to predict the future or explore possible future states of the business environment in order to pre-empt and shape it (corporate foresight). Similarly, the dynamic capabilities approach addresses relevant firm capabilities to adapt to fast change in an environment that threatens a firm’s competitiveness and survival. However, despite these conceptual similarities, their relationship remains opaque. To close this gap, we conduct qualitative interviews with foresight experts as an exploratory study. Our results show that foresight and dynamic capabilities aim at an organizational renewal to meet future challenges. Foresight can be regarded as a specific activity that corresponds with the sensing process of dynamic capabilities. The experts disagree about the relationship between foresight and sensing and see no direct links with transformation. However, foresight can better inform post-sensing activities and, therefore, indirectly contribute to the adequate reconfiguration of the resource base, an increased innovativeness, and firm performance. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe - 128 KW - corporate foresight KW - dynamic capabilities KW - forecasting KW - Germany Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-474487 SN - 1867-5808 IS - 128 SP - 180 EP - 193 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Semke, Lisa-Marie A1 - Tiberius, Victor T1 - Corporate Foresight and Dynamic Capabilities BT - An Exploratory Study JF - Forecasting N2 - Firms engage in forecasting and foresight activities to predict the future or explore possible future states of the business environment in order to pre-empt and shape it (corporate foresight). Similarly, the dynamic capabilities approach addresses relevant firm capabilities to adapt to fast change in an environment that threatens a firm’s competitiveness and survival. However, despite these conceptual similarities, their relationship remains opaque. To close this gap, we conduct qualitative interviews with foresight experts as an exploratory study. Our results show that foresight and dynamic capabilities aim at an organizational renewal to meet future challenges. Foresight can be regarded as a specific activity that corresponds with the sensing process of dynamic capabilities. The experts disagree about the relationship between foresight and sensing and see no direct links with transformation. However, foresight can better inform post-sensing activities and, therefore, indirectly contribute to the adequate reconfiguration of the resource base, an increased innovativeness, and firm performance. KW - corporate foresight KW - dynamic capabilities KW - forecasting KW - Germany Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast2020010 SN - 2571-9394 VL - 2 IS - 2 SP - 180 EP - 293 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. A1 - de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno A1 - Kallbekken, Steffen A1 - Stokman, Frans A1 - Saelen, Hakon A1 - Thomson, Robert T1 - Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations JF - Politics and Governance N2 - We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world’s leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer’s Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combining experts’ predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts’ predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulation models were not statistically significant. KW - climate policy KW - climate regime KW - expert survey KW - forecasting KW - global negotiations KW - Paris agreement KW - prediction KW - simulation Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v4i3.654 SN - 2183-2463 VL - 4 SP - 172 EP - 187 PB - Cogitatio Press CY - Lisbon ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sudibyo, Maria R. P. A1 - Eibl, Eva P. S. A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Hersir, Gylfi Páll T1 - Eruption Forecasting of Strokkur Geyser, Iceland, Using Permutation Entropy JF - Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth N2 - A volcanic eruption is usually preceded by seismic precursors, but their interpretation and use for forecasting the eruption onset time remain a challenge. A part of the eruptive processes in open conduits of volcanoes may be similar to those encountered in geysers. Since geysers erupt more often, they are useful sites for testing new forecasting methods. We tested the application of Permutation Entropy (PE) as a robust method to assess the complexity in seismic recordings of the Strokkur geyser, Iceland. Strokkur features several minute-long eruptive cycles, enabling us to verify in 63 recorded cycles whether PE behaves consistently from one eruption to the next one. We performed synthetic tests to understand the effect of different parameter settings in the PE calculation. Our application to Strokkur shows a distinct, repeating PE pattern consistent with previously identified phases in the eruptive cycle. We find a systematic increase in PE within the last 15 s before the eruption, indicating that an eruption will occur. We quantified the predictive power of PE, showing that PE performs better than seismic signal strength or quiescence when it comes to forecasting eruptions. KW - permutation entropy KW - forecasting KW - geyser KW - eruption KW - hydrothermal system; KW - volcano-seismology Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JB024840 SN - 2169-9313 SN - 2169-9356 VL - 127 IS - 10 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Ben-Zion, Yehuda T1 - Large earthquake hazard of the San Jacinto fault zone, CA, from long record of simulated seismicity assimilating the available instrumental and paleoseismic data JF - Pure and applied geophysics N2 - We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m a parts per thousand yen 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquake. KW - Earthquake dynamics KW - Earthquake interaction KW - forecasting KW - prediction KW - Statistical seismology KW - Seismicity and tectonics Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0783-1 SN - 0033-4553 SN - 1420-9136 VL - 171 IS - 11 SP - 2955 EP - 2965 PB - Springer CY - Basel ER -