TY - GEN A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda T1 - A simple equation for the melt elevation feedback of ice sheets T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass and has thereby contributed to global sea-level rise. The rate of ice loss is highly relevant for coastal protection worldwide. The ice loss is likely to increase under future warming. Beyond a critical temperature threshold, a meltdown of the Greenland Ice Sheet is induced by the self-enforcing feedback between its lowering surface elevation and its increasing surface mass loss: the more ice that is lost, the lower the ice surface and the warmer the surface air temperature, which fosters further melting and ice loss. The computation of this rate so far relies on complex numerical models which are the appropriate tools for capturing the complexity of the problem. By contrast we aim here at gaining a conceptual understanding by deriving a purposefully simple equation for the self-enforcing feedback which is then used to estimate the melt time for different levels of warming using three observable characteristics of the ice sheet itself and its surroundings. The analysis is purely conceptual in nature. It is missing important processes like ice dynamics for it to be useful for applications to sea-level rise on centennial timescales, but if the volume loss is dominated by the feedback, the resulting logarithmic equation unifies existing numerical simulations and shows that the melt time depends strongly on the level of warming with a critical slow-down near the threshold: the median time to lose 10% of the present-day ice volume varies between about 3500 years for a temperature level of 0.5 degrees C above the threshold and 500 years for 5 degrees C. Unless future observations show a significantly higher melting sensitivity than currently observed, a complete meltdown is unlikely within the next 2000 years without significant ice-dynamical contributions. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 529 KW - sea-level rise KW - mass-balance KW - climate-change KW - Greenland KW - model KW - glacier KW - projections KW - dynamics KW - impact KW - 21st-Century Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409834 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 529 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Baroni, Gabriele A1 - Zink, Matthias A1 - Kumar, Rohini A1 - Samaniego, Luis A1 - Attinger, Sabine T1 - Effects of uncertainty in soil properties on simulated hydrological states and fluxes at different spatio-temporal scales T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Soil properties show high heterogeneity at different spatial scales and their correct characterization remains a crucial challenge over large areas. The aim of the study is to quantify the impact of different types of uncertainties that arise from the unresolved soil spatial variability on simulated hydrological states and fluxes. Three perturbation methods are presented for the characterization of uncertainties in soil properties. The methods are applied on the soil map of the upper Neckar catchment (Germany), as an example. The uncertainties are propagated through the distributed mesoscale hydrological model (mHM) to assess the impact on the simulated states and fluxes. The model outputs are analysed by aggregating the results at different spatial and temporal scales. These results show that the impact of the different uncertainties introduced in the original soil map is equivalent when the simulated model outputs are analysed at the model grid resolution (i.e. 500 m). However, several differences are identified by aggregating states and fluxes at different spatial scales (by subcatchments of different sizes or coarsening the grid resolution). Streamflow is only sensitive to the perturbation of long spatial structures while distributed states and fluxes (e.g. soil moisture and groundwater recharge) are only sensitive to the local noise introduced to the original soil properties. A clear identification of the temporal and spatial scale for which finer-resolution soil information is (or is not) relevant is unlikely to be universal. However, the comparison of the impacts on the different hydrological components can be used to prioritize the model improvements in specific applications, either by collecting new measurements or by calibration and data assimilation approaches. In conclusion, the study underlines the importance of a correct characterization of uncertainty in soil properties. With that, soil maps with additional information regarding the unresolved soil spatial variability would provide strong support to hydrological modelling applications. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 545 KW - global sensitivity analysis KW - hydraulic conductivity KW - pedotransfer functions KW - parameter uncertainty KW - physical properties KW - solute transport KW - model KW - rainfall KW - Evapotranspiration KW - impact Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419174 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 545 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Krause, Hannes-Vincent A1 - Baum, Katharina A1 - Baumann, Annika A1 - Krasnova, Hanna T1 - Unifying the detrimental and beneficial effects of social network site use on self-esteem BT - a systematic literature review T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Previous research offers equivocal results regarding the effect of social networking site use on individuals’ self-esteem. We con- duct a systematic literature review to examine the existing litera- ture and develop a theoretical framework in order to classify the results. The framework proposes that self-esteem is affected by three distinct processes that incorporate self-evaluative informa- tion: social comparison processes, social feedback processing, and self-reflective processes. Due to particularities of the social networking site environment, the accessibility and quality of self- evaluative information is altered, which leads to online-specific effects on users’ self-esteem. Results of the reviewed studies suggest that when a social networking site is used to compare oneself with others, it mostly results in decreases in users’ self- esteem. On the other hand, receiving positive social feedback from others or using these platforms to reflect on one’s own self is mainly associated with benefits for users’ self-esteem. Nevertheless, inter-individual differences and the specific activ- ities performed by users on these platforms should be considered when predicting individual effects. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe - 567 KW - facebook use KW - life satisfaction KW - college-students KW - body-image KW - time spent KW - media use KW - online KW - validation KW - friends KW - impact Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-435037 SN - 1866-8364 IS - 567 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Wenz, Leonie A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Willner, Sven N. A1 - Otto, Christian A1 - Kuhla, Kilian T1 - Post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario: short-term consumer benefit at the expense of long-term economic development T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - After the United Kingdom has left the European Union it remains unclear whether the two parties can successfully negotiate and sign a trade agreement within the transition period. Ongoing negotiations, practical obstacles and resulting uncertainties make it highly unlikely that economic actors would be fully prepared to a “no-trade-deal” situation. Here we provide an economic shock simulation of the immediate aftermath of such a post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario by computing the time evolution of more than 1.8 million interactions between more than 6,600 economic actors in the global trade network. We find an abrupt decline in the number of goods produced in the UK and the EU. This sudden output reduction is caused by drops in demand as customers on the respective other side of the Channel incorporate the new trade restriction into their decision-making. As a response, producers reduce prices in order to stimulate demand elsewhere. In the short term consumers benefit from lower prices but production value decreases with potentially severe socio-economic consequences in the longer term. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1208 KW - model KW - origins KW - chains KW - impact KW - costs Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525819 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 9 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zhong, Yufei A1 - Causa, Martina A1 - Moore, Gareth John A1 - Krauspe, Philipp A1 - Xiao, Bo A1 - Günther, Florian A1 - Kublitski, Jonas A1 - BarOr, Eyal A1 - Zhou, Erjun A1 - Banerji, Natalie T1 - Sub-picosecond charge-transfer at near-zero driving force in polymer:non-fullerene acceptor blends and bilayers T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Organic photovoltaics based on non-fullerene acceptors (NFAs) show record efficiency of 16 to 17% and increased photovoltage owing to the low driving force for interfacial charge-transfer. However, the low driving force potentially slows down charge generation, leading to a tradeoff between voltage and current. Here, we disentangle the intrinsic charge-transfer rates from morphology-dependent exciton diffusion for a series of polymer:NFA systems. Moreover, we establish the influence of the interfacial energetics on the electron and hole transfer rates separately. We demonstrate that charge-transfer timescales remain at a few hundred femtoseconds even at near-zero driving force, which is consistent with the rates predicted by Marcus theory in the normal region, at moderate electronic coupling and at low re-organization energy. Thus, in the design of highly efficient devices, the energy offset at the donor:acceptor interface can be minimized without jeopardizing the charge-transfer rate and without concerns about a current-voltage tradeoff. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1422 KW - organic solar cell KW - electron-transfer KW - Donor-Acceptor (DA) interface KW - transfer dynamics KW - donor KW - seperation KW - efficiency KW - impact KW - energy KW - photovoltaics Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-511936 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bertels, Jana A1 - Schulze-Gabrechten, Lena T1 - Mapping the black box of intraministerial organization BT - An analytical approach to explore structural diversity below the portfolio level T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - This article explores the structural diversity of intraministerial organization over time. Based on organization theory, it proposes a generic typology for intraministerial units applicable to any hierarchically structured government organization. We empirically investigate the critical case of the German federal bureaucracy. By classifying its subunits, we analyze the longitudinal development of structural differentiation and its correspondence to denominational variety. The data stem from a novel international dataset, covering all ministries between 1980 and 2015. We find that intraministerial structure differentiates over time, across and within ministries. A stable core of traditional Weberian structure is complemented by structurally innovative intraministerial units. We conclude that the German federal bureaucracy is more diverse than suggested in previous literature. Our findings indicate that less Weberian bureaucracies are at least as structurally diverse and that more reform-driven bureaucracies will have experienced at least as many changes in structural diversity. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe - 165 KW - public management KW - continuity KW - government KW - reforms KW - impact KW - state Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-514264 SN - 1867-5808 IS - 1 ER -