TY - JOUR A1 - Jakupec, Viktor T1 - The Rise of Populism JF - Development Aid—Populism and the End of the Neoliberal Agenda N2 - Drawing on the recent political developments in Europe and the USA, and the public discourse since 2016, an analysis of the rise of populism on the left and the right is articulated with the aim to provide an understanding of the contemporary populist political landscape. The Trump phenomenon and his form of populism is analysed within the context of foreign policy and development aid. This is contrasted with the neoliberal view couched in Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ theorem, and the current popular sentiment towards anti-establishment and anti-globalisation in Western democracies. KW - Populism KW - Trump phenomenon KW - Development aid End of history KW - Foreign policy KW - Political establishment Y1 - 2017 SN - 978-3-319-72748-6 SN - 978-3-319-72747-9 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72748-6_1 SN - 2211-4548 SN - 2211-4556 SP - 1 EP - 18 PB - Springer CY - Cham ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schumacher, Reinhard T1 - Rezension zu: Dale, Gareth: Karl Polanyi: a life on the left. - New York: Columbia University Press, 2016. - xii, 381 S. - ISBN: 978-0-231-17608-8 JF - Journal of the history of economic thought Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S1053837217000220 SN - 1053-8372 SN - 1469-9656 VL - 40 IS - 2 SP - 296 EP - 298 PB - Cambridge Univ. Press CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Paganelli, Maria Pia A1 - Schumacher, Reinhard T1 - Do not take peace for granted BT - Adam Smith’s warning on the relation between commerce and war JF - Cambridge journal of economics N2 - Is trade a promoter of peace? Adam Smith, one of the earliest defenders of trade, worries that commerce may instigate some perverse incentives, encouraging wars. The wealth that commerce generates decreases the relative cost of wars, increases the ability to finance wars through debts, which decreases their perceived cost, and increases the willingness of commercial interests to use wars to extend their markets, increasing the number and prolonging the length of wars. Smith, therefore, cannot assume that trade would yield a peaceful world. While defending and promoting trade, Smith warns us not to take peace for granted. KW - Commercial peace KW - Adam Smith KW - Doux commerce KW - Perceived cost versus actual cost of war KW - Special interests Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bey040 SN - 0309-166X SN - 1464-3545 VL - 43 IS - 3 SP - 785 EP - 797 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bruttel, Lisa Verena T1 - Is There a Loyalty-Enhancing Effect of Retroactive Price-Reduction Schemes? JF - Review of industrial organization N2 - This paper presents an experiment on the effect of retroactive price-reduction schemes on buyers’ repeated purchase decisions. Such schemes promise buyers a reduced price for all units that are bought in a certain time frame if the total quantity that is purchased passes a given threshold. This study finds a loyalty-enhancing effect of retroactive price-reduction schemes only if the buyers ex-ante expected that entering into the scheme would maximize their monetary gain, but later learn that they should leave the scheme. Furthermore, the effect crucially hinges on the framing of the price reduction. KW - Buyer behavior KW - Experiment KW - Loss aversion KW - Rebate and discount KW - Regulation of dominant firms KW - Risk aversion Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-018-9653-9 SN - 0889-938X SN - 1573-7160 VL - 54 IS - 3 SP - 575 EP - 593 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Borck, Rainald A1 - Wrede, Matthias T1 - Spatial and social mobility JF - Journal of Regional Science N2 - This paper analyzes the relationship between spatial mobility and social mobility. It develops a two-skill-type spatial equilibrium model of two regions with location preferences where each region consists of an urban area that is home to workplaces and residences and an exclusively residential suburban area. The paper demonstrates that relative regional social mobility is negatively correlated with segregation and inequality. In the model, segregation, income inequality, and social mobility are driven by differences between urban and residential areas in commuting cost differences between high-skilled and low-skilled workers, and also by the magnitude of taste heterogeneity. KW - inequality KW - segregation KW - social mobility KW - spatial mobility Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12382 SN - 0022-4146 SN - 1467-9787 VL - 58 IS - 4 SP - 688 EP - 704 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bruttel, Lisa Verena A1 - Gueth, Werner T1 - Asymmetric voluntary cooperation BT - a repeated sequential best-shot experiment JF - International Journal of Game Theory N2 - This paper tests the robustness of voluntary cooperation in a sequential best shot game, a public good game in which the maximal contribution determines the level of public good provision. Thus, efficiency enhancing voluntary cooperation requires asymmetric behavior whose coordination is more difficult. Nevertheless, we find robust cooperation irrespective of treatment-specific institutional obstacles. To explain this finding, we distinguish three behavioral patterns aiming at both, voluntary cooperation and (immediate) payoff equality. KW - Best shot game KW - Coordination KW - Transfer KW - Refund KW - Experiment Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00182-018-0633-y SN - 0020-7276 SN - 1432-1270 VL - 47 IS - 3 SP - 873 EP - 891 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bruttel, Lisa Verena T1 - The effects of recommended retail prices on consumer and retailer behaviour JF - Economica N2 - This paper presents results from an experiment on the effects of recommended retail prices on consumer and retailer behaviour. We present evidence that recommended retail prices, despite their non-binding nature, influence consumers’ willingness to pay by setting a reference point. At a given price, consumers buy more the higher the recommended retail price is, and their demand drops at prices above the recommended retail price, even when it is entirely uninformative about the value of the product. Retailers in this study are subject to similar anchoring effects, but they do not anticipate consumers’ behaviour well and are thus not able to exploit their behavioural biases. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12218 SN - 0013-0427 SN - 1468-0335 VL - 85 IS - 339 SP - 649 EP - 668 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schumacher, Reinhard T1 - Rezension: Shigeyoshi Senga, Masatomi Fujimoto, Taichi Tabuchi (Eds.).: Ricardo and International Trade. - London: Routledge, 2017. - x, 276 S. - ISBN: 978-1-138-12245-1 JF - Journal of the History of Economic Thought Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S1053837218000317 SN - 1053-8372 SN - 1469-9656 VL - 41 IS - 3 SP - 435 EP - 438 PB - Cambridge Univ. Press CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kornher, Lukas A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias T1 - The gains of coordination - When does regional cooperation for food security make sense? JF - Global Food Security - AGRICULTURE POLICY ECONOMICS AND ENVIRONMENT N2 - With the onset of the global food crisis, the discussion about the use and misuse of agricultural market interventions regained academic attention. As a result of economies of scale, centralized policy implementation at the regional level has the potential to reduce the budgetary costs of policies. Borrowing from the literature on international unions and international policy coordination, we develop a conceptual framework to analyze when regional policy implementation makes sense. This is the case whenever spill-overs from centralization are large and policy preferences, driven by country-specific characteristics, are homogeneous. Subsequently, we examine the advantageousness of centralized policy implementation for the West African region regarding the most common food security policies. We show that centralization of trade policies and emergency food reserves is beneficial, while buffer stocks, safety net policies, and producer support policies should be implemented at the national level. KW - Food security KW - Regional cooperation KW - West Africa KW - International unions Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2019.09.004 SN - 2211-9124 VL - 22 SP - 37 EP - 45 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Goethner, Maximilian A1 - Weißenberger, Martin T1 - Entrepreneurial persistence beyond survival: Measurement and determinants JF - Journal of Small Business Management N2 - Entrepreneurial persistence is demonstrated by an entrepreneur’s continued positive maintenance of entrepreneurial motivation and constantly renewed active engagement in a new business venture despite counterforces or enticing alternatives. It thus is a crucial factor for entrepreneurs when pursuing and exploiting their business opportunities and in realizing potential economic gains and benefits. Using rich data on a representative sample of German business founders, we investigated the determinants of entrepreneurial persistence. Next to observed survival, we also constructed a hybrid persistence measure capturing the motivational dimension of persistence. We analyzed the influence of individual-level (human capital and personality) and business-related characteristics on both measures as well as their relative importance. We found that the two indicators emphasize different aspects of persistence. For the survival indicator, the predictive power was concentrated in business characteristics and human capital, while for hybrid persistence the dominant factors were business characteristics and personality. Finally, we showed that results were heterogeneous across subgroups. In particular, formerly unemployed founders did not differ in survival chances, but they were more likely to lack a high psychological commitment to their business ventures. KW - entrepreneurship KW - startups KW - persistence KW - survival Y1 - 2019 VL - 58 IS - 3 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Orland, Andreas A1 - Roos, Michael W. M. T1 - Price-setting with quadratic adjustment costs BT - experimental evidence JF - Journal of economic behavior & organization N2 - We test the price-setting behavior of firms using the Rotemberg (1982) model in order to explain puzzles in the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC). For our tests, we conducted experiments that adapt the model into an individual decision-making problem. We find systematic deviations in price-setting according to the subjects’ degree of information acquisition. Subjects rarely make use of past information. On the other hand, subjects that decide to acquire relatively little information about future desired prices tend to overweight their own past set price when they set prices. We study the impact of this heterogeneous price-setting behavior for theoretically derived forward-looking Phillips curves. Our estimated NKPCs are in line with the empirical literature. The deviations from theoretical predictions in our NKPCs are driven by the less-informed subjects. KW - Experimental macroeconomics KW - Intertemporal optimization KW - Nominal frictions KW - Phillips curve Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.05.010 SN - 0167-2681 SN - 1879-1751 VL - 163 SP - 88 EP - 116 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Borck, Rainald T1 - Public transport and urban pollution JF - Regional science and urban economics N2 - This paper studies the effect of public transport policies on urban pollution. It uses a quantitative equilibrium model with residential choice and mode choice. Pollution comes from commuting and residential energy use. The model parameters are calibrated to replicate key variables for American metropolitan areas. In the counterfactual, I study how free public transport coupled with increasing transit speed affects the equilibrium. In the baseline simulation, total pollution falls by 0.4%, as decreasing emissions from transport are partly offset by rising residential emissions. A second counterfactual compares a city with and without public transit. This large investment decreases pollution by 1.7%. When jobs are decentralized, emissions fall by 0.5% in the first and by 3% in the second counterfactual. KW - Public transport KW - Pollution KW - Discrete choice Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2019.06.005 SN - 0166-0462 SN - 1879-2308 VL - 77 SP - 356 EP - 366 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Piontek, Franziska A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Schultes, Anselm A1 - Leimbach, Marian A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar A1 - Bauer, Nico T1 - Economic Growth Effects of Alternative Climate Change Impact Channels in Economic Modeling JF - Environmental & resource economics : the official journal of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists N2 - Despite increasing empirical evidence of strong links between climate and economic growth, there is no established model to describe the dynamics of how different types of climate shocks affect growth patterns. Here we present the first comprehensive, comparative analysis of the long-term dynamics of one-time, temporary climate shocks on production factors, and factor productivity, respectively, in a Ramsey-type growth model. Damages acting directly on production factors allow us to study dynamic effects on factor allocation, savings and economic growth. We find that the persistence of impacts on economic activity is smallest for climate shocks directly impacting output, and successively increases for direct damages on capital, loss of labor and productivity shocks, related to different responses in savings rates and factor-specific growth. Recurring shocks lead to large welfare effects and long-term growth effects, directly linked to the persistence of individual shocks. Endogenous savings and shock anticipation both have adaptive effects but do not eliminate differences between impact channels or significantly lower the dissipation time. Accounting for endogenous growth mechanisms increases the effects. We also find strong effects on income shares, important for distributional implications. This work fosters conceptual understanding of impact dynamics in growth models, opening options for links to empirics. KW - Climate change KW - Damages KW - Economic growth KW - Impact channels KW - Production factors KW - Persistence Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-018-00306-7 SN - 0924-6460 SN - 1573-1502 VL - 73 IS - 4 SP - 1357 EP - 1385 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Tübbicke, Stefan T1 - New evidence on long-term effects of start-up subsidies BT - matching estimates and their robustness JF - Empirical economics N2 - The German start-up subsidy (SUS) program for the unemployed has recently undergone a major makeover, altering its institutional setup, adding an additional layer of selection and leading to ambiguous predictions of the program's effectiveness. Using propensity score matching (PSM) as our main empirical approach, we provide estimates of long-term effects of the post-reform subsidy on individual employment prospects and labor market earnings up to 40 months after entering the program. Our results suggest large and persistent long-term effects of the subsidy on employment probabilities and net earned income. These effects are larger than what was estimated for the pre-reform program. Extensive sensitivity analyses within the standard PSM framework reveal that the results are robust to different choices regarding the implementation of the weighting procedure and also with respect to deviations from the conditional independence assumption. As a further assessment of the results' sensitivity, we go beyond the standard selection-on-observables approach and employ an instrumental variable setup using regional variation in the likelihood of receiving treatment. Here, we exploit the fact that the reform increased the discretionary power of local employment agencies in allocating active labor market policy funds, allowing us to obtain a measure of local preferences for SUS as the program of choice. The results based on this approach give rise to similar estimates. Thus, our results indicating that SUS are still an effective active labor market program after the reform do not appear to be driven by "hidden bias." KW - start-up subsidies KW - policy reform KW - matching KW - instrumental variables Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-019-01701-9 SN - 0377-7332 SN - 1435-8921 VL - 59 IS - 4 SP - 1605 EP - 1631 PB - Physica-Verlag CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hustedt, Thurid A1 - Seyfried, Markus T1 - Challenges, Triggers and Initiatorsof Climate Policies and Implications for Policy Formulation JF - Leidenschaft und Augenmaß : sozialwissenschaftliche Perspektiven auf Entwicklung, Verwaltung, Umwelt und Klima : Festschrift für Harald Fuhr Y1 - 2020 SN - 978-3-8487-5249-2 SP - 169 EP - 179 PB - Nomos CY - Baden-Baden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Iro, Adrea A1 - Patel, Urvaksh D. T1 - Making Climate Finance Effective JF - Leidenschaft und Augenmaß : sozialwissenschaftliche Perspektiven auf Entwicklung, Verwaltung, Umwelt und Klima : Festschrift für Harald Fuhr Y1 - 2020 SN - 978-3-8487-5249-2 SP - 181 EP - 194 PB - Nomos CY - Baden-Baden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Streck, Charlotte T1 - Public and Private Responsibility and the Evolving Climate Regime JF - Leidenschaft und Augenmaß : sozialwissenschaftliche Perspektiven auf Entwicklung, Verwaltung, Umwelt und Klima : Festschrift für Harald Fuhr Y1 - 2020 SN - 978-3-8487-5249-2 SP - 221 EP - 234 PB - Nomos CY - Baden-Baden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gebhardt, Thomas T1 - The Potsdam “Master of Public Management”(MPM) Program BT - Making Leadership Education Work JF - Leidenschaft und Augenmaß : sozialwissenschaftliche Perspektiven auf Entwicklung, Verwaltung, Umwelt und Klima : Festschrift für Harald Fuhr Y1 - 2020 SN - 978-3-8487-5249-2 SP - 247 EP - 261 PB - Nomos CY - Baden-Baden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reichard, Christoph T1 - Verwaltungsausbildung in Afghanistan BT - Reflektionen über ein Qualifizierungsprojekt JF - Leidenschaft und Augenmaß : sozialwissenschaftliche Perspektiven auf Entwicklung, Verwaltung, Umwelt und Klima : Festschrift für Harald Fuhr Y1 - 2020 SN - 978-3-8487-5249-2 SP - 275 EP - 284 PB - Nomos CY - Baden-Baden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. A1 - Shreejaya, Shradha A1 - Prasad, Devi K. V. T1 - Predicting Climate Policy Choices BT - The Indian Water Mission JF - Leidenschaft und Augenmaß : sozialwissenschaftliche Perspektiven auf Entwicklung, Verwaltung, Umwelt und Klima : Festschrift für Harald Fuhr Y1 - 2020 SP - 207 EP - 218 PB - Nomos CY - Baden-Baden ER - TY - GEN A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Grammig, Joachim A1 - Schneider, Hilmar T1 - Reinhard Hujer BT - ein Forscherleben als Spiegelbild der Ökonometrie T2 - AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11943-020-00277-6 SN - 1863-8155 SN - 1863-8163 VL - 14 IS - 3-4 SP - 219 EP - 223 PB - Springer CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Caliendo, Marco T1 - Fünf Jahre Mindestlohn BT - einiges erreicht, aber wesentliche Ziele verfehlt JF - ifo Schnelldienst N2 - Die Einführung des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns zum 1. Januar 2015 war nach der Agenda 2010 die bedeutendste Arbeitsmarktreform der letzten 20 Jahre. Durch das relativ hohe Eingriffsniveau – etwa 4 Millionen oder 11% aller Erwerbstätigen verdienten vor der Einführung weniger als die neue Bruttolohnuntergrenze von 8,50 Euro pro Stunde – und die nahezu umfassende Gültigkeit, waren Hoffnungen und Befürchtungen gleichermaßen groß und viele Fragen zu den Wirkungen offen. Heute, fünf Jahre nach der Einführung und basierend auf zahlreichen, breit angelegten Evaluationsstudien, ist es Zeit für eine Zwischenbilanz. Die Löhne im unteren Bereich sind gestiegen, ohne dass es zu einem größeren Abbau an Beschäftigung gekommen ist. Gleichzeitig hat der Mindestlohn aber nicht die Zahl der Transferbezieher verringert. Auch das Armutsrisiko hat nicht abgenommen. Der Mindestlohn ist in vielerlei Hinsicht nicht existenzsichernd und wird auch nicht vollumfänglich durchgesetzt. Insofern wurde fünf Jahre nach der Einführung zwar einiges erreicht, wichtige Ziele aber auch verfehlt. Die Politik ist gefordert. Y1 - 2020 UR - https://www.evaluation-office.de/wp-content/uploads/2020_Caliendo_Mindestlohn_ifoSD.pdf SN - 0018-974X SN - 2199-4455 VL - 73 IS - 4 SP - 23 EP - 28 PB - Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung CY - München ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bruttel, Lisa Verena A1 - Stolley, Florian T1 - Getting a yes BT - an experiment on the power of asking JF - Journal of behavioral and experimental economics N2 - This paper studies how the request for a favor has to be devised in order to maximize its chance of success. We present results from a mini-dictator game, in which the recipient can send a free-form text message to the dictator before the latter decides. We find that putting effort into the message, writing in a humorous way and mentioning reasons why the money is needed pays off. Additionally, we find differences in the behavior of male and female dictators. Only men react positively to efficiency arguments, while only women react to messages that emphasize the dictators power and responsibility. KW - dictator game KW - communication KW - inequality KW - text analysis KW - experiment Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2020.101550 SN - 2214-8043 VL - 86 PB - Elsevier CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Künn, Steffen A1 - Weissenberger, Martin T1 - Catching up or lagging behind? BT - the long-term business and innovation potential of subsidized start-ups out of unemployment JF - Research policy : policy, management and economic studies of science, technology and innovation N2 - From an active labor market policy perspective, start-up subsidies for unemployed individuals are very effective in improving long-term labor market outcomes for participants. From a business perspective, however, the assessment of these public programs is less clear since they might attract individuals with low entrepreneurial abilities and produce businesses with low survival rates and little contribution to job creation, economic growth, and innovation. In this paper, we use a rich data set to compare participants of a German start-up subsidy program for unemployed individuals to a group of regular founders who started from non-unemployment and did not receive the subsidy. The data allows us to analyze their business performance up until 40 months after business formation. We find that formerly subsidized founders lag behind not only in survival and job creation, but especially also in innovation activities. The gaps in these business outcomes are relatively constant or even widening over time. Hence, we do not see any indication of catching up in the longer run. While the gap in survival can be entirely explained by initial differences in observable start-up characteristics, the gap in business development remains and seems to be the result of restricted access to capital as well as differential business strategies and dynamics. Considering these conflicting results for the assessment of the subsidy program from an ALMP and business perspective, policy makers need to carefully weigh the costs and benefits of such a strategy to find the right policy mix. KW - entrepreneurship KW - start-up subsidies KW - business growth KW - innovation KW - job KW - creation Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2020.104053 SN - 0048-7333 SN - 1873-7625 VL - 49 IS - 10 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Ockenfels, Axel T1 - Das Klimaschutzprogramm der Bundesregierung BT - eine Wende der deutschen Klimapolitik? JF - Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik N2 - Das Klimaschutzgesetz hat einen Paradigmenwechsel eingeleitet: den Einstieg in eine CO2-Bepreisung als künftiges Leitinstrument der Klimapolitik. Auf den ersten Blick ist der CO2-Preis unter einer Fülle von Fördermaßnahmen und ordnungsrechtlichen Regelungen verschüttet, deren Wirksamkeit und Kosten höchst unsicher sind. Der CO2-Preis ist aber so angelegt, dass er langfristig das dominante Instrument einer europäisch harmonisierten Klimapolitik werden kann. Der angedeutete Paradigmenwechsel der deutschen Klimapolitik öffnet damit die Tür, die europäische und internationale Kooperation zu stärken. Dazu ist es aber notwendig, neben der europäischen auch die globale Klimapolitik neu auszurichten. Auch dort sollten sich die Verhandlungen statt auf nationale Mengenziele auf CO2-Preise konzentrieren. Die erforderliche Kooperation wird möglich, wenn die Regierungen Transferzahlungen strategisch und reziprok nutzen. So könnte die Effektivität der Klimapolitik erhöht werden und es ließen sich die entstehenden Verteilungskonflikte entschärfen. KW - Klimaschutzgesetz KW - CO2-Preis KW - Emissionshandel KW - internationale Kooperation KW - Klimawandel KW - Klimapolitik KW - Deutschland KW - EU Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1515/pwp-2020-0001 SN - 1465-6493 SN - 1468-2516 VL - 21 IS - 1 SP - 4 EP - 18 PB - De Gruyter CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Wenz, Leonie T1 - The impact of climate conditions on economic production BT - evidence from a global panel of regions JF - Journal of Environmental Economics and Management N2 - We present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5°C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7–14% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73–142$/tCO2 in 2020, rising to 92–181$/tCO2 in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise. KW - climate change KW - climate damages KW - climate impacts KW - growth regression KW - global warming KW - panel regression KW - cross-sectional regression KW - damage KW - function KW - social costs of carbon Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102360 SN - 0095-0696 SN - 1096-0449 VL - 103 PB - Elsevier CY - San Diego ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Requate, Tilman A1 - Steckel, Jan Christoph T1 - How assets get stranded BT - the impact of climate policy on capital and fossil fuel owners : introduction to the JEEM special section on climate policy and political economy JF - Journal of environmental economics and management N2 - Internalizing external costs of carbon is a fundamental goal of climate policy. Since the seminal work of Arthur Pigou in 1920, economic theory has analyzed the efficiency gains arising from various instruments that internalize externalities and lead to Pareto-improvements. It is widely recognized in environmental economics that a carbon price would effectively reflect the scarcity of the atmospheric disposal space for carbon depending on the temperature target that is to be achieved. The question of how to organize the transition process, i.e. moving from inefficient to efficient allocations, and implementing the necessary policies, has gained increasing attention in recent years. Arguably, the transition process is tightly interwoven with political processes that include complex interactions between societal stakeholders, such as households and firms, on the one hand, and political decision makers, on the other. Accordingly, understanding political-economy aspects of the transition process, including distributional outcomes, is becoming increasingly relevant. While a growing literature discusses the distributional implications of climate policy on households, it is less well understood how asset owners might be affected by climate policy and how these potential impacts would interact with the transition process. This Special Section focuses on public policy challenges related to this transition problem, with special emphasis on asset owners. A core theme is the special role of stranded assets, i.e. a devaluation of capital stocks or financial assets either by introducing a stringent carbon price or by omitting a pre-announced policy of this kind. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102300 SN - 0095-0696 SN - 1096-0449 VL - 100 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sedova, Barbora A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Mendelsohn, Robert T1 - Distributional impacts of weather and climate in rural India JF - Economics of disasters and climate change N2 - Climate-related costs and benefits may not be evenly distributed across the population. We study distributional implications of seasonal weather and climate on within-country inequality in rural India. Utilizing a first difference approach, we find that the poor are more sensitive to weather variations than the non-poor. The poor respond more strongly to (seasonal) temperature changes: negatively in the (warm) spring season, more positively in the (cold) rabi season. Less precipitation is harmful to the poor in the monsoon kharif season and beneficial in the winter and spring seasons. We show that adverse weather aggravates inequality by reducing consumption of the poor farming households. Future global warming predicted under RCP8.5 is likely to exacerbate these effects, reducing consumption of poor farming households by one third until the year 2100. We also find inequality in consumption across seasons with higher consumption during the harvest and lower consumption during the sowing seasons. KW - climate change KW - weather KW - inequality KW - household analysis KW - India KW - econometrics Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-019-00051-1 SN - 2511-1280 SN - 2511-1299 VL - 4 IS - 1 SP - 5 EP - 44 PB - Springer CY - Cham ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Covi, Giovanni A1 - Eydam, Ulrich T1 - Correction to: End of the sovereign-bank doom loop in the European Union? BT - the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive JF - Journal of evolutionary economics Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-018-0577-1 SN - 0936-9937 SN - 1432-1386 N1 - Correction to: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-018-0576-2 VL - 30 IS - 1 SP - 31 EP - 38 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Tübbicke, Stefan T1 - Do start-up subsidies for the unemployed affect participants’ well-being? BT - a rigorous look at (un-)intended consequences of labor market policies JF - Evaluation review N2 - Background: The literature on start-up subsidies (SUS) for the unemployed finds positive effects on objective outcome measures such as employment or income. However, little is known about effects on subjective well-being of participants. Knowledge about this is especially important because subsidizing the transition into self-employment may have unintended adverse effects on participants’ well-being due to its risky nature and lower social security protection, especially in the long run. Objective: We study the long-term effects of SUS on subjective outcome indicators of well-being, as measured by the participants’ satisfaction in different domains. This extends previous analyses of the current German SUS program (“Gründungszuschuss”) that focused on objective outcomes—such as employment and income—and allows us to make a more complete judgment about the overall effects of SUS at the individual level. Research design: Having access to linked administrative-survey data providing us with rich information on pretreatment characteristics, we base our analysis on the conditional independence assumption and use propensity score matching to estimate causal effects within the potential outcomes framework. We perform several sensitivity analyses to inspect the robustness of our findings. Results: We find long-term positive effects on job satisfaction but negative effects on individuals’ satisfaction with their social security situation. Supplementary findings suggest that the negative effect on satisfaction with social security may be driven by negative effects on unemployment and retirement insurance coverage. Our heterogeneity analysis reveals substantial variation in effects across gender, age groups, and skill levels. Estimates are highly robust. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/0193841X20927237 SN - 1552-3926 SN - 0193-841X VL - 46 IS - 5 SP - 517 EP - 554 PB - Sage Publications CY - Thousand Oaks ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Schröder, Carsten A1 - Göbler, Konstantin A1 - Grabka, Markus M. A1 - Kolb, Chris A1 - Shupe, Cortnie A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Tübbicke, Stefan A1 - Priem, Maximilian T1 - Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Haushaltseinkommen, Konsum- und Sparverhalten BT - Endbericht Y1 - 2020 UR - https://www.mindestlohn-kommission.de/DE/Forschung/Projekte/pdf/Bericht-Mindestlohn-Haushaltseinkommen.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=1 SP - 1 EP - 85 PB - Deutsche Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Audretsch, David B. A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Schiersch, Alexander T1 - Microfirms and innovation in the service sector JF - Small business economics N2 - In the context of microfirms, this paper analyzes whether the link between the three aspects involving innovative activities—R&D, innovative output, and productivity—hold for knowledge-intensive services. With especially high start-up rates and the majority of employees in microfirms, knowledge-intensive services (KIS) have a starkly different profile from manufacturing. Results from our structural models indicate that KIS firms benefit from innovation activities through increased labor productivity with highly skilled employees being similarly important compared to R&D for creating innovation output in microfirms. Moreover, the firm size advantage of large firms found for manufacturing almost disappears in KIS, with start-ups and young firms having a higher probability of initiating innovation activities and of successfully turning knowledge into innovation output than mature firms. KW - microfirms KW - MSMEs KW - R&D KW - service sector KW - innovation KW - productivity Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-020-00366-4 SN - 0921-898X SN - 1573-0913 VL - 55 IS - 4 SP - 997 EP - 1018 PB - Springer Science + Business Media B.V. CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Eydam, Ulrich Leonard A1 - Gabriadze, Irakli T1 - Institutional development in transition economies BT - the role of institutional experience JF - Post-Soviet affairs N2 - To understand the divergent institutional development in transition economies, we examine the role of institutional experience from the pre-Soviet era in institution-building after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. To measure institutional experience, we construct an index that captures previous experience with independent non-Soviet institutions. A cross-sectional analysis shows that institutional experience is statistically significantly associated with the quality of political, administrative, and legal institutions in transition economies today. To provide a more comprehensive picture and to control for confounding factors, in a second step, we apply a Hausman-Taylor estimator on panel data. This analysis confirms the positive relationship between institutional experience and institutional development. Moreover, the results suggest that the association between institutional experience and political institutions is stronger than the association to the other dimensions of institutions. Overall, the analysis highlights the importance of institutional experience and provides a rationale for the persistency of institutions. KW - institutions KW - comparative development KW - transition economies KW - post-Soviet KW - space KW - collective memory Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2020.1848171 SN - 1060-586X SN - 1938-2855 VL - 37 IS - 2 SP - 99 EP - 118 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Diluiso, Francesca A1 - Walk, Paula A1 - Manych, Niccolo A1 - Cerutti, Nicola A1 - Chipiga, Vladislav A1 - Workman, Annabelle A1 - Ayas, Ceren A1 - Cui, Ryna Yiyun A1 - Cui, Diyang A1 - Song, Kaihui A1 - Banisch, Lucy A. A1 - Moretti, Nikolaj A1 - Callaghan, Max W. A1 - Clarke, Leon A1 - Creutzig, Felix A1 - Hilaire, Jerome A1 - Jotzo, Frank A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Lamb, William F. A1 - Löschel, Andreas A1 - Müller-Hansen, Finn A1 - Nemet, Gregory F. A1 - Oei, Pao-Yu A1 - Sovacool, Benjamin K. A1 - Steckel, Jan Christoph A1 - Thomas, Sebastian A1 - Wiseman, John A1 - Minx, Jan C. T1 - Coal transitions - part 1 BT - a systematic map and review of case study learnings from regional, national, and local coal phase-out experiences JF - Environmental research letters N2 - A rapid coal phase-out is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, but is hindered by serious challenges ranging from vested interests to the risks of social disruption. To understand how to organize a global coal phase-out, it is crucial to go beyond cost-effective climate mitigation scenarios and learn from the experience of previous coal transitions. Despite the relevance of the topic, evidence remains fragmented throughout different research fields, and not easily accessible. To address this gap, this paper provides a systematic map and comprehensive review of the literature on historical coal transitions. We use computer-assisted systematic mapping and review methods to chart and evaluate the available evidence on historical declines in coal production and consumption. We extracted a dataset of 278 case studies from 194 publications, covering coal transitions in 44 countries and ranging from the end of the 19th century until 2021. We find a relatively recent and rapidly expanding body of literature reflecting the growing importance of an early coal phase-out in scientific and political debates. Previous evidence has primarily focused on the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany, while other countries that experienced large coal declines, like those in Eastern Europe, are strongly underrepresented. An increasing number of studies, mostly published in the last 5 years, has been focusing on China. Most of the countries successfully reducing coal dependency have undergone both demand-side and supply-side transitions. This supports the use of policy approaches targeting both demand and supply to achieve a complete coal phase-out. From a political economy perspective, our dataset highlights that most transitions are driven by rising production costs for coal, falling prices for alternative energies, or local environmental concerns, especially regarding air pollution. The main challenges for coal-dependent regions are structural change transformations, in particular for industry and labor. Rising unemployment is the most largely documented outcome in the sample. Policymakers at multiple levels are instrumental in facilitating coal transitions. They rely mainly on regulatory instruments to foster the transitions and compensation schemes or investment plans to deal with their transformative processes. Even though many models suggest that coal phase-outs are among the low-hanging fruits on the way to climate neutrality and meeting the international climate goals, our case studies analysis highlights the intricate political economy at work that needs to be addressed through well-designed and just policies. KW - climate change mitigation KW - coal transitions KW - evidence synthesis KW - political economy KW - systematic map Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1b58 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 16 IS - 11 PB - Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP) CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Diluiso, Francesca A1 - Annicchiarico, Barbara A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Minx, Jan Christoph T1 - Climate actions and macro-financial stability BT - the role of central banks JF - Journal of environmental economics and management N2 - Limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees C may pose threats to macroeconomic and financial stability. In an estimated Euro Area New Keynesian model with financial frictions and climate policy, we study the possible perils of a low-carbon transition and evaluate the role of monetary policy and financial regulation. We show that, even for very ambitious climate targets, transition costs are moderate along a timely and gradual mitigation pathway. Inflation volatility strongly increases for disorderly climate policy, demanding a strong monetary response by central banks. In reaction to an adverse financial shock originating in the fossil sector, a green quantitative easing policy can provide an effective stimulus to the economy, but its stabilizing properties do not significantly differ from those of market neutral asset purchase programs. A financial regulation, encouraging the decarbonization of the banks' balance sheets via ad hoc capital requirements, can significantly reduce the severity of a financial crisis, but prolongs the recovery phase. Our results suggest that the involvement of central banks in climate actions must be carefully designed to be in compliance with their mandate and to avoid unintended trade-offs. KW - Climate policy KW - Green transition KW - Monetary policy KW - Capital requirements KW - Green quantitative easing KW - Euro area Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102548 SN - 0095-0696 SN - 1096-0449 VL - 110 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar A1 - Franks, Max A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias T1 - Pigou in the 21st century BT - a tribute on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the publication of The Economics of Welfare JF - International tax and public finance N2 - The year 2020 marks the centennial of the publication of Arthur Cecil Pigou's magnum opus The Economics of Welfare. Pigou's pricing principles have had an enduring influence on the academic debate, with a widespread consensus having emerged among economists that Pigouvian taxes or subsidies are theoretically desirable, but politically infeasible. In this article, we revisit Pigou's contribution and argue that this consensus is somewhat spurious, particularly in two ways: (1) Economists are too quick to ignore the theoretical problems and subtleties that Pigouvian pricing still faces; (2) The wholesale skepticism concerning the political viability of Pigouvian pricing is at odds with its recent practical achievements. These two points are made by, first, outlining the theoretical and political challenges that include uncertainty about the social cost of carbon, the unclear relationship between the cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness approaches, distributional concerns, fragmented ministerial responsibilities, an unstable tax base, commitment problems, lack of acceptance and trust between government and citizens as well as incomplete international cooperation. Secondly, we discuss the recent political success of Pigouvian pricing, as evidenced by the German government's 2019 climate policy reform and the EU's Green Deal. We conclude by presenting a research agenda for addressing the remaining barriers that need to be overcome to make Pigouvian pricing a common political practice. KW - Environmental economics KW - Climate change economics KW - Carbon pricing KW - Pigouvian taxation KW - Economic policy Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-020-09653-y SN - 0927-5940 SN - 1573-6970 VL - 28 IS - 5 SP - 1090 EP - 1121 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baldenius, Till A1 - Bernstein, Tobias A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - von Kleist-Retzow, Maximilian A1 - Koch, Nicolas T1 - Ordnungsrecht oder Preisinstrumente? BT - zur Verteilungswirkung von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen im Verkehr JF - Ifo-Schnelldienst Y1 - 2021 UR - https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-2021-06-loeschel-etal-klimapolitik-verteilungswirkungen.pdf#page=4 SN - 0018-974X SN - 2700-8371 SN - 2199-4455 VL - 74 IS - 6 SP - 6 EP - 10 PB - Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung CY - München ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Roolfs, Christina T1 - Carbon pricing and revenue recycling BT - an overview of vertical and horizontal equity effects for Germany JF - CESifo forum Y1 - 2021 UR - https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/CESifo-Forum-2021-5-edenhofer-kalkuhl-roolfs-carbon-pricing-september.pdf SN - 2190-717X SN - 1615-245X VL - 22 IS - 5 SP - 10 EP - 14 PB - Ifo CY - Munich ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Singhal, Puja A1 - Pahle, Michael A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Sommer, Stephan A1 - Levesque, Antoine A1 - Berneiser, Jessica T1 - Beyond good faith BT - why evidence-based policy is necessary to decarbonize buildings cost-effectively JF - SSRN eLibrary / Social Science Research Network N2 - The ambitious climate targets set by industrialized nations worldwide cannot be met without decarbonizing the building stock. Using Germany as a case study, this paper takes stock of the extensive set of energy efficiency policies that are already in place and clarifies that they have been designed “in good faith” but lack in overall effectiveness as well as cost-efficiency in achieving these climate targets. We map out the market failures and behavioural considerations that are potential reasons for why realized energy savings fall below expectations and why the household adoption of energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies has remained low. We highlight the pressing need for data and modern empirical research to develop targeted and cost-effective policies seeking to correct these market failures. To this end, we identify some key research questions and identify gaps in the data required for evidence-based policy. KW - energy efficiency KW - decarbonization KW - housing sector KW - heat demand KW - evidence-based policy Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3947800 SN - 1556-5068 PB - SSRN - Elsevier CY - Rochester, NY ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baert, By Stijn A1 - Neyt, Brecht A1 - Siedler, Thomas A1 - Tobback, Ilse A1 - Verhaest, Dieter T1 - Student internships and employment opportunities after graduation BT - a field experiment JF - Economics of education review N2 - Internships during tertiary education have become substantially more common over the past decades in many industrialised countries. This study examines the impact of a voluntary intra-curricular internship experience during university studies on the probability of being invited to a job interview. To estimate a causal relationship, we conducted a randomised field experiment in which we sent 1248 fictitious, but realistic, resumes to real job openings. We find that applicants with internship experience have, on average, a 12.6% higher probability of being invited to a job interview. KW - internship KW - hiring KW - field experiment KW - human capital KW - signalling Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2021.102141 SN - 0272-7757 VL - 83 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ackfeld, Viola A1 - Rohloff, Tobias A1 - Rzepka, Sylvi T1 - Increasing personal data contributions for the greater public good BT - a field experiment on an online education platform JF - Behavioural public policy N2 - Personal data increasingly serve as inputs to public goods. Like other types of contributions to public goods, personal data are likely to be underprovided. We investigate whether classical remedies to underprovision are also applicable to personal data and whether the privacy-sensitive nature of personal data must be additionally accounted for. In a randomized field experiment on a public online education platform, we prompt users to complete their profiles with personal information. Compared to a control message, we find that making public benefits salient increases the number of personal data contributions significantly. This effect is even stronger when additionally emphasizing privacy protection, especially for sensitive information. Our results further suggest that emphasis on both public benefits and privacy protection attracts personal data from a more diverse set of contributors. KW - field experiment KW - personal data KW - public good KW - privacy Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2021.39 SN - 2398-063X SN - 2398-0648 SP - 1 EP - 27 PB - Cambridge University Press CY - Cambridge ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bertram, Christoph A1 - Riahi, Keywan A1 - Hilaire, Jérôme A1 - Bosetti, Valentina A1 - Drouet, Laurent A1 - Fricko, Oliver A1 - Malik, Aman A1 - Nogueira, Larissa Pupo A1 - van der Zwaan, Bob A1 - van Ruijven, Bas A1 - van Vuuren, Detlef P. A1 - Weitzel, Matthias A1 - Longa, Francesco Dalla A1 - de Boer, Harmen-Sytze A1 - Emmerling, Johannes A1 - Fosse, Florian A1 - Fragkiadakis, Kostas A1 - Harmsen, Mathijs A1 - Keramidas, Kimon A1 - Kishimoto, Paul Natsuo A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Krey, Volker A1 - Paroussos, Leonidas A1 - Saygin, Deger A1 - Vrontisi, Zoi A1 - Luderer, Gunnar T1 - Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals JF - Environmental research letters N2 - The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for 'making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions'. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the near-term mitigation requirements to avoid the overshoot of a temperature goal. It must also include the recently observed fast technological progress in key mitigation options. Here, we use a new and unique scenario ensemble that limit peak warming by construction and that stems from seven up-to-date integrated assessment models. This allows us to study the near-term implications of different limits to peak temperature increase under a consistent and up-to-date set of assumptions. We find that ambitious immediate action allows for limiting median warming outcomes to well below 2 °C in all models. By contrast, current nationally determined contributions for 2030 would add around 0.2 °C of peak warming, leading to an unavoidable transgression of 1.5 °C in all models, and 2 °C in some. In contrast to the incremental changes as foreseen by current plans, ambitious peak warming targets require decisive emission cuts until 2030, with the most substantial contribution to decarbonization coming from the power sector. Therefore, investments into low-carbon power generation need to increase beyond current levels to meet the Paris goals, especially for solar and wind technologies and related system enhancements for electricity transmission, distribution and storage. Estimates on absolute investment levels, up-scaling of other low-carbon power generation technologies and investment shares in less ambitious scenarios vary considerably across models. In scenarios limiting peak warming to below 2 °C, while coal is phased out quickly, oil and gas are still being used significantly until 2030, albeit at lower than current levels. This requires continued investments into existing oil and gas infrastructure, but investments into new fields in such scenarios might not be needed. The results show that credible and effective policy action is essential for ensuring efficient allocation of investments aligned with medium-term climate targets. KW - Paris Agreement KW - energy investments KW - mitigation policies KW - climate policy KW - integrated assessment modelling Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac09ae SN - 1748-9326 VL - 16 IS - 7 PB - IOP Publishing CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Harmsen, Mathijs A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - van Vuuren, Detlef P. A1 - van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar A1 - Luderer, Gunnar A1 - Cui, Ryna A1 - Dessens, Olivier A1 - Drouet, Laurent A1 - Emmerling, Johannes A1 - Morris, Jennifer Faye A1 - Fosse, Florian A1 - Fragkiadakis, Dimitris A1 - Fragkiadakis, Kostas A1 - Fragkos, Panagiotis A1 - Fricko, Oliver A1 - Fujimori, Shinichiro A1 - Gernaat, David A1 - Guivarch, Céline A1 - Iyer, Gokul A1 - Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis A1 - Keppo, Ilkka A1 - Keramidas, Kimon A1 - Köberle, Alexandre A1 - Kolp, Peter A1 - Krey, Volker A1 - Krüger, Christoph A1 - Leblanc, Florian A1 - Mittal, Shivika A1 - Paltsev, Sergey A1 - Rochedo, Pedro A1 - van Ruijven, Bas J. A1 - Sands, Ronald D. A1 - Sano, Fuminori A1 - Strefler, Jessica A1 - Arroyo, Eveline Vasquez A1 - Wada, Kenichi A1 - Zakeri, Behnam T1 - Integrated assessment model diagnostics BT - key indicators and model evolution JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing about climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow comparison across these models can help describe and explain differences in model projections. This increases transparency and comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose models (Kriegler (2015 Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 90 45–61)). Here we build on this, by proposing a selected set of well-defined indicators as a community standard, to systematically and routinely assess IAM behaviour, similar to metrics used for other modeling communities such as climate models. These indicators are the relative abatement index, emission reduction type index, inertia timescale, fossil fuel reduction, transformation index and cost per abatement value. We apply the approach to 17 IAMs, assessing both older as well as their latest versions, as applied in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. The study shows that the approach can be easily applied and used to indentify key differences between models and model versions. Moreover, we demonstrate that this comparison helps to link model behavior to model characteristics and assumptions. We show that together, the set of six indicators can provide useful indication of the main traits of the model and can roughly indicate the general model behavior. The results also show that there is often a considerable spread across the models. Interestingly, the diagnostic values often change for different model versions, but there does not seem to be a distinct trend. KW - diagnostics KW - integrated assessment models KW - climate policy KW - Assessment Report IPCC KW - renewable energy KW - migration KW - AR6 Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf964 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 16 IS - 5 PB - IOP Publishing CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Riahi, Keywan A1 - Bertram, Christoph A1 - Huppmann, Daniel A1 - Rogelj, Joeri A1 - Bosetti, Valentina A1 - Cabardos, Anique-Marie A1 - Deppermann, Andre A1 - Drouet, Laurent A1 - Frank, Stefan A1 - Fricko, Oliver A1 - Fujimori, Shinichiro A1 - Harmsen, Mathijs A1 - Hasegawa, Tomoko A1 - Krey, Volker A1 - Luderer, Gunnar A1 - Paroussos, Leonidas A1 - Schaeffer, Roberto A1 - Weitzel, Matthias A1 - van der Zwaan, Bob A1 - Vrontisi, Zoi A1 - Longa, Francesco Dalla A1 - Després, Jacques A1 - Fosse, Florian A1 - Fragkiadakis, Kostas A1 - Gusti, Mykola A1 - Humpenöder, Florian A1 - Keramidas, Kimon A1 - Kishimoto, Paul A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Meinshausen, Malte A1 - Nogueira, Larissa Pupo A1 - Oshiro, Ken A1 - Popp, Alexander A1 - Rochedo, Pedro R. R. A1 - Ünlü, Gamze A1 - van Ruijven, Bas A1 - Takakura, Junya A1 - Tavoni, Massimo A1 - van Vuuren, Detlef P. A1 - Zakeri, Behnam T1 - Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot JF - Nature climate change N2 - Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01215-2 SN - 1758-678X SN - 1758-6798 VL - 11 IS - 12 SP - 1063 EP - 1069 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wilson, Charlie A1 - Guivarch, Céline A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - van Ruijven, Bas A1 - van Vuuren, Detlef P. A1 - Krey, Volker A1 - Schwanitz, Valeria Jana A1 - Thompson, Erica L. T1 - Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation JF - Climatic change N2 - Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community. KW - process-based integrated assessment model KW - IAM KW - evaluation KW - climate mitigation Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03099-9 SN - 0165-0009 SN - 1573-1480 VL - 166 IS - 1-2 PB - Springer Science + Business Media B.V. CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - van Soest, Heleen L. A1 - Aleluia Reis, Lara A1 - Baptista, Luiz Bernardo A1 - Bertram, Christoph A1 - Després, Jacques A1 - Drouet, Laurent A1 - den Elzen, Michel A1 - Fragkos, Panagiotis A1 - Fricko, Oliver A1 - Fujimori, Shinichiro A1 - Grant, Neil A1 - Harmsen, Mathijs A1 - Iyer, Gokul A1 - Keramidas, Kimon A1 - Köberle, Alexandre C. A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Malik, Aman A1 - Mittal, Shivika A1 - Oshiro, Ken A1 - Riahi, Keywan A1 - Roelfsema, Mark A1 - van Ruijven, Bas A1 - Schaeffer, Roberto A1 - Silva Herran, Diego A1 - Tavoni, Massimo A1 - Ünlü, Gamze A1 - Vandyck, Toon A1 - van Vuuren, Detlef P. T1 - Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap JF - Nature communications N2 - Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%–88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation. KW - climate-change mitigation KW - climate-change policy Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z N1 - Corrigendum: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-27969-7 VL - 12 IS - 1 PB - Nature Publishing Group UK CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Warszawski, Lila A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Lenton, Timothy M. A1 - Gaffney, Owen A1 - Jacob, Daniela A1 - Klingenfeld, Daniel A1 - Koide, Ryu A1 - Costa, María Máñez A1 - Messner, Dirk A1 - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa A1 - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim A1 - Schlosser, Peter A1 - Takeuchi, Kazuhiko A1 - van der Leeuw, Sander A1 - Whiteman, Gail A1 - Rockström, Johan T1 - All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C BT - a scenario appraisal JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range). KW - climate change KW - emissions scenarios KW - 1.5 ◦C KW - negative emissions Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfeec SN - 1748-9326 N1 - Corrigendum: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbf6a VL - 16 IS - 6 PB - IOP Publishing CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schultes, Anselm A1 - Piontek, Franziska A1 - Soergel, Bjoern A1 - Rogelj, Joeri A1 - Baumstark, Lavinia A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar A1 - Luderer, Gunnar T1 - Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Pathways toward limiting global warming to well below 2 ∘C, as used by the IPCC in the Fifth Assessment Report, do not consider the climate impacts already occurring below 2 ∘C. Here we show that accounting for such damages significantly increases the near-term ambition of transformation pathways. We use econometric estimates of climate damages on GDP growth and explicitly model the uncertainty in the persistence time of damages. The Integrated Assessment Model we use includes the climate system and mitigation technology detail required to derive near-term policies. We find an optimal carbon price of $115 per tonne of CO2 in 2030. The long-term persistence of damages, while highly uncertain, is a main driver of the near-term carbon price. Accounting for damages on economic growth increases the gap between the currently pledged nationally determined contributions and the welfare-optimal 2030 emissions by two thirds, compared to pathways considering the 2 ∘C limit only. KW - climate change KW - climate mitigation KW - climate impacts KW - integrated assessment Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac27ce SN - 1748-9326 VL - 16 IS - 10 PB - IOP Publishing CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Orland, Andreas A1 - Rostam-Afschar, Davud T1 - Flexible work arrangements and precautionary behavior BT - Theory and experimental evidence JF - Journal of economic behavior & organization N2 - In the past years, work-time in many industries has become more flexible, opening up a new channel for intertemporal substitution: workers might, instead of saving, adjust their work-time to smooth consumption. To study this channel, we set up a two-period consumption/saving model with wage uncertainty. This extends the standard saving model by also allowing a worker to allocate a fixed time budget between two work-shifts. To test the comparative statics implied by these two different channels, we conduct a laboratory experiment. A novel feature of our experiments is that we tie income to a real-effort style task. In four treatments, we turn on and off the two channels for consumption smoothing: saving and time allocation. Our main finding is that savings are strictly positive for at least 85 percent of subjects. We find that a majority of subjects also uses time allocation to smooth consumption and use saving and time shifting as substitutes, though not perfect substitutes. Part of the observed heterogeneity of precautionary behavior can be explained by risk preferences and motivations different from expected utility maximization. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Precautionary saving KW - Labor supply KW - Intertemporal substitution KW - Experiment Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.09.015 SN - 0167-2681 SN - 1879-1751 VL - 191 SP - 442 EP - 481 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Margaryan, Shushanik A1 - Paul, Annemarie A1 - Siedler, Thomas T1 - Does education affect attitudes towards immigration? JF - Journal of human resources N2 - Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and exploiting the staggered implementation of a compulsory schooling reform in West Germany, this article finds that an additional year of schooling lowers the probability of being very concerned about immigration to Germany by around six percentage points (20 percent). Furthermore, our findings imply significant spillovers from maternal education to immigration attitudes of her offspring. While we find no evidence for returns to education within a range of labor market outcomes, higher social trust appears to be an important mechanism behind our findings. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.56.2.0318-9372R1 SN - 0022-166X SN - 1548-8004 VL - 56 IS - 2 SP - 446 EP - 479 PB - University of Wisconsin Press CY - Madison ER -