TY - GEN A1 - Hellwig, Niels A1 - Walz, Ariane A1 - Markovic, Danijela T1 - Climatic and socioeconomic effects on land cover changes across Europe BT - Does protected area designation matter? T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Land cover change is a dynamic phenomenon driven by synergetic biophysical and socioeconomic effects. It involves massive transitions from natural to less natural habitats and thereby threatens ecosystems and the services they provide. To retain intact ecosystems and reduce land cover change to a minimum of natural transition processes, a dense network of protected areas has been established across Europe. However, even protected areas and in particular the zones around protected areas have been shown to undergo land cover changes. The aim of our study was to compare land cover changes in protected areas, non-protected areas, and 1 km buffer zones around protected areas and analyse their relationship to climatic and socioeconomic factors across Europe between 2000 and 2012 based on earth observation data. We investigated land cover flows describing major change processes: urbanisation, afforestation, deforestation, intensification of agriculture, extensification of agriculture, and formation of water bodies. Based on boosted regression trees, we modelled correlations between land cover flows and climatic and socioeconomic factors. The results show that land cover changes were most frequent in 1 km buffer zones around protected areas (3.0% of all buffer areas affected). Overall, land cover changes within protected areas were less frequent than outside, although they still amounted to 18,800 km2 (1.5% of all protected areas) from 2000 to 2012. In some parts of Europe, urbanisation and intensification of agriculture still accounted for up to 25% of land cover changes within protected areas. Modelling revealed meaningful relationships between land cover changes and a combination of influencing factors. Demographic factors (accessibility to cities and population density) were most important for coarse-scale patterns of land cover changes, whereas fine-scale patterns were most related to longitude (representing the general east/west economic gradient) and latitude (representing the north/south climatic gradient). T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 764 KW - Species-Diversity KW - Determinants KW - Intensity KW - Patterns KW - Transformation KW - Tree KW - National-Parks KW - Biodiversity KW - Drivers KW - Abandonment Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-437885 IS - 764 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hellwig, Niels A1 - Walz, Ariane A1 - Markovic, Danijela T1 - Climatic and socioeconomic effects on land cover changes across Europe BT - Does protected area designation matter? JF - PloS One N2 - Land cover change is a dynamic phenomenon driven by synergetic biophysical and socioeconomic effects. It involves massive transitions from natural to less natural habitats and thereby threatens ecosystems and the services they provide. To retain intact ecosystems and reduce land cover change to a minimum of natural transition processes, a dense network of protected areas has been established across Europe. However, even protected areas and in particular the zones around protected areas have been shown to undergo land cover changes. The aim of our study was to compare land cover changes in protected areas, non-protected areas, and 1 km buffer zones around protected areas and analyse their relationship to climatic and socioeconomic factors across Europe between 2000 and 2012 based on earth observation data. We investigated land cover flows describing major change processes: urbanisation, afforestation, deforestation, intensification of agriculture, extensification of agriculture, and formation of water bodies. Based on boosted regression trees, we modelled correlations between land cover flows and climatic and socioeconomic factors. The results show that land cover changes were most frequent in 1 km buffer zones around protected areas (3.0% of all buffer areas affected). Overall, land cover changes within protected areas were less frequent than outside, although they still amounted to 18,800 km2 (1.5% of all protected areas) from 2000 to 2012. In some parts of Europe, urbanisation and intensification of agriculture still accounted for up to 25% of land cover changes within protected areas. Modelling revealed meaningful relationships between land cover changes and a combination of influencing factors. Demographic factors (accessibility to cities and population density) were most important for coarse-scale patterns of land cover changes, whereas fine-scale patterns were most related to longitude (representing the general east/west economic gradient) and latitude (representing the north/south climatic gradient). KW - Species-Diversity KW - Determinants KW - Intensity KW - Patterns KW - Transformation KW - Tree KW - National-Parks KW - Biodiversity KW - Drivers KW - Abandonment Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0219374 SN - 1932-6203 VL - 14 IS - 7 PB - PLOS 1 CY - San Francisco ER - TY - GEN A1 - Smith, Taylor A1 - Rheinwalt, Aljoscha A1 - Bookhagen, Bodo T1 - Determining the optimal grid resolution for topographic analysis on an airborne lidar dataset T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Digital elevation models (DEMs) are a gridded representation of the surface of the Earth and typically contain uncertainties due to data collection and processing. Slope and aspect estimates on a DEM contain errors and uncertainties inherited from the representation of a continuous surface as a grid (referred to as truncation error; TE) and from any DEM uncertainty. We analyze in detail the impacts of TE and propagated elevation uncertainty (PEU) on slope and aspect. Using synthetic data as a control, we define functions to quantify both TE and PEU for arbitrary grids. We then develop a quality metric which captures the combined impact of both TE and PEU on the calculation of topographic metrics. Our quality metric allows us to examine the spatial patterns of error and uncertainty in topographic metrics and to compare calculations on DEMs of different sizes and accuracies. Using lidar data with point density of ∼10 pts m−2 covering Santa Cruz Island in southern California, we are able to generate DEMs and uncertainty estimates at several grid resolutions. Slope (aspect) errors on the 1 m dataset are on average 0.3∘ (0.9∘) from TE and 5.5∘ (14.5∘) from PEU. We calculate an optimal DEM resolution for our SCI lidar dataset of 4 m that minimizes the error bounds on topographic metric calculations due to the combined influence of TE and PEU for both slope and aspect calculations over the entire SCI. Average slope (aspect) errors from the 4 m DEM are 0.25∘ (0.75∘) from TE and 5∘ (12.5∘) from PEU. While the smallest grid resolution possible from the high-density SCI lidar is not necessarily optimal for calculating topographic metrics, high point-density data are essential for measuring DEM uncertainty across a range of resolutions. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 725 KW - Digital Elevation Model KW - River Incision Model KW - Accuracy Asseessment KW - Landscape Response KW - Error KW - Slope KW - Uncertainties KW - Extraction KW - Expression KW - Patterns Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-430165 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 725 SP - 475 EP - 489 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Smith, Taylor A1 - Rheinwalt, Aljoscha A1 - Bookhagen, Bodo T1 - Determining the optimal grid resolution for topographic analysis on an airborne lidar dataset JF - Earth Surface Dynamics N2 - Digital elevation models (DEMs) are a gridded representation of the surface of the Earth and typically contain uncertainties due to data collection and processing. Slope and aspect estimates on a DEM contain errors and uncertainties inherited from the representation of a continuous surface as a grid (referred to as truncation error; TE) and from any DEM uncertainty. We analyze in detail the impacts of TE and propagated elevation uncertainty (PEU) on slope and aspect. Using synthetic data as a control, we define functions to quantify both TE and PEU for arbitrary grids. We then develop a quality metric which captures the combined impact of both TE and PEU on the calculation of topographic metrics. Our quality metric allows us to examine the spatial patterns of error and uncertainty in topographic metrics and to compare calculations on DEMs of different sizes and accuracies. Using lidar data with point density of ∼10 pts m−2 covering Santa Cruz Island in southern California, we are able to generate DEMs and uncertainty estimates at several grid resolutions. Slope (aspect) errors on the 1 m dataset are on average 0.3∘ (0.9∘) from TE and 5.5∘ (14.5∘) from PEU. We calculate an optimal DEM resolution for our SCI lidar dataset of 4 m that minimizes the error bounds on topographic metric calculations due to the combined influence of TE and PEU for both slope and aspect calculations over the entire SCI. Average slope (aspect) errors from the 4 m DEM are 0.25∘ (0.75∘) from TE and 5∘ (12.5∘) from PEU. While the smallest grid resolution possible from the high-density SCI lidar is not necessarily optimal for calculating topographic metrics, high point-density data are essential for measuring DEM uncertainty across a range of resolutions. KW - Digital Elevation Model KW - River Incision Model KW - Accuracy Asseessment KW - Landscape Response KW - Error KW - Slope KW - Uncertainties KW - Extraction KW - Expression KW - Patterns Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-7-475-2019 SN - 2196-6311 SN - 2196-632X VL - 7 SP - 475 EP - 489 PB - Copernicus Publ. CY - Göttingen ER - TY - GEN A1 - Delgado, José Miguel Martins A1 - Voss, Sebastian A1 - Bürger, Gerd A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef A1 - Murawski, Aline A1 - Rodrigues Pereira, José Marcelo A1 - Martins, Eduardo A1 - Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco A1 - Francke, Till T1 - Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeastern Brazil BT - verification of six hydro-meteorological forecast products T2 - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences N2 - A set of seasonal drought forecast models was assessed and verified for the Jaguaribe River in semiarid northeastern Brazil. Meteorological seasonal forecasts were provided by the operational forecasting system used at FUNCEME (Ceará’s research foundation for meteorology)and by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Three downscaling approaches (empirical quantile mapping, extended downscaling and weather pattern classification) were tested and combined with the models in hindcast mode for the period 1981 to 2014. The forecast issue time was January and the forecast period was January to June. Hydrological drought indices were obtained by fitting a multivariate linear regression to observations. In short, it was possible to obtain forecasts for (a) monthly precipitation,(b) meteorological drought indices, and (c) hydrological drought indices. The skill of the forecasting systems was evaluated with regard to root mean square error (RMSE), the Brier skill score (BSS) and the relative operating characteristic skill score (ROCSS). The tested forecasting products showed similar performance in the analyzed metrics. Forecasts of monthly precipitation had little or no skill considering RMSE and mostly no skill with BSS. A similar picture was seen when forecasting meteorological drought indices: low skill regarding RMSE and BSS and significant skill when discriminating hit rate and false alarm rate given by the ROCSS (forecasting drought events of, e.g., SPEI1 showed a ROCSS of around 0.5). Regarding the temporal variation of the forecast skill of the meteorological indices, it was greatest for April, when compared to the remaining months of the rainy season, while the skill of reservoir volume forecasts decreased with lead time. This work showed that a multi-model ensemble can forecast drought events of timescales relevant to water managers in northeastern Brazil with skill. But no or little skill could be found in the forecasts of monthly precipitation or drought indices of lower scales, like SPI1. Both this work and those here revisited showed that major steps forward are needed in forecasting the rainy season in northeastern Brazil. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 476 KW - Hydrological drought KW - River-Basin KW - Model KW - Patterns KW - Precipitation KW - Variability KW - Nordeste Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418461 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Delgado, José Miguel Martins A1 - Voss, Sebastian A1 - Bürger, Gerd A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef A1 - Murawski, Aline A1 - Rodrigues Pereira, José Marcelo A1 - Martins, Eduardo A1 - Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco A1 - Francke, Till T1 - Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeastern Brazil BT - verification of six hydro-meteorological forecast products JF - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences N2 - A set of seasonal drought forecast models was assessed and verified for the Jaguaribe River in semiarid northeastern Brazil. Meteorological seasonal forecasts were provided by the operational forecasting system used at FUNCEME (Ceará’s research foundation for meteorology)and by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Three downscaling approaches (empirical quantile mapping, extended downscaling and weather pattern classification) were tested and combined with the models in hindcast mode for the period 1981 to 2014. The forecast issue time was January and the forecast period was January to June. Hydrological drought indices were obtained by fitting a multivariate linear regression to observations. In short, it was possible to obtain forecasts for (a) monthly precipitation,(b) meteorological drought indices, and (c) hydrological drought indices. The skill of the forecasting systems was evaluated with regard to root mean square error (RMSE), the Brier skill score (BSS) and the relative operating characteristic skill score (ROCSS). The tested forecasting products showed similar performance in the analyzed metrics. Forecasts of monthly precipitation had little or no skill considering RMSE and mostly no skill with BSS. A similar picture was seen when forecasting meteorological drought indices: low skill regarding RMSE and BSS and significant skill when discriminating hit rate and false alarm rate given by the ROCSS (forecasting drought events of, e.g., SPEI1 showed a ROCSS of around 0.5). Regarding the temporal variation of the forecast skill of the meteorological indices, it was greatest for April, when compared to the remaining months of the rainy season, while the skill of reservoir volume forecasts decreased with lead time. This work showed that a multi-model ensemble can forecast drought events of timescales relevant to water managers in northeastern Brazil with skill. But no or little skill could be found in the forecasts of monthly precipitation or drought indices of lower scales, like SPI1. Both this work and those here revisited showed that major steps forward are needed in forecasting the rainy season in northeastern Brazil. KW - Hydrological drought KW - River-Basin KW - Model KW - Patterns KW - Precipitation KW - Variability KW - Nordeste Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5041-2018 SN - 1027-5606 SN - 1607-7938 VL - 22 IS - 9 SP - 5041 EP - 5056 PB - Copernicus Publ. CY - Göttingen ER - TY - BOOK A1 - Geller, Felix A1 - Hirschfeld, Robert A1 - Bracha, Gilad T1 - Pattern Matching for an object-oriented and dynamically typed programming language N2 - Pattern matching is a well-established concept in the functional programming community. It provides the means for concisely identifying and destructuring values of interest. This enables a clean separation of data structures and respective functionality, as well as dispatching functionality based on more than a single value. Unfortunately, expressive pattern matching facilities are seldomly incorporated in present object-oriented programming languages. We present a seamless integration of pattern matching facilities in an object-oriented and dynamically typed programming language: Newspeak. We describe language extensions to improve the practicability and integrate our additions with the existing programming environment for Newspeak. This report is based on the first author’s master’s thesis. T3 - Technische Berichte des Hasso-Plattner-Instituts für Digital Engineering an der Universität Potsdam - 36 KW - Pattern Matching KW - Musterabgleich KW - Muster KW - Objekt-Orientiertes Programmieren KW - Dynamische Typ Systeme KW - Pattern Matching KW - Patterns KW - Object-Oriented Programming KW - Dynamic Type System Y1 - 2010 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-43035 SN - 978-3-86956-065-6 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ER - TY - THES A1 - Gröne, Bernhard T1 - Konzeptionelle Patterns und ihre Darstellung N2 - Zur Beherrschung großer Systeme, insbesondere zur Weitergabe und Nutzung von Erfahrungswissen in der frühen Entwurfs- und Planungsphase, benötigt man Abstraktionen für deren Strukturen. Trennt man Software- von Systemstrukturen, kann man mit letzteren Systeme auf ausreichend hohem Abstraktionsgrad beschreiben.Software-Patterns dienen dazu, Erfahrungswissen bezüglich programmierter Systeme strukturiert weiterzugeben. Dabei wird unterschieden zwischen Idiomen, die sich auf Lösungen mit einer bestimmten Programmiersprache beziehen, Design-Patterns, die nur einen kleinen Teil des Programms betreffen und Architektur-Patterns, deren Einfluss über einen größeren Teil oder gar das komplette Programm reicht. Eine Untersuchung von existierenden Patterns zeigt, dass deren Konzepte nützlich zum Finden von Systemstrukturen sind. Die grafische Darstellung dieser Patterns ist dagegen oft auf Software-Strukturen eingeschränkt und ist für die Vermittlung von Erfahrungen zum Finden von Systemstrukturen meist nicht geeignet. Daher wird die Kategorie der konzeptionellen Patterns mit einer darauf abgestimmten grafischen Darstellungsform vorgeschlagen, bei denen Problem und Lösungsvorschlag im Bereich der Systemstrukturen liegen. Sie betreffen informationelle Systeme, sind aber nicht auf Lösungen mit Software beschränkt. Die Systemstrukturen werden grafisch dargestellt, wobei dafür die Fundamental Modeling Concepts (FMC) verwendet werden, die zur Darstellung von Systemstrukturen entwickelt wurden. N2 - Planning large and complex software systems is an important task of a system architect. It includes communicating with the customer, planning the overall system structure as well as preparing the division of labor among software engineers. What's more, a system architect benefits from other professionals' experiences concerning system architecture. By separating system from software structures, one can now describe a system by its system structure on an adequate level of abstraction. Patterns provide a common form for the transfer of experiences. A pattern describes a widely used and proven solution to a problem that occurs in a certain context. A study of existing architectural and design patterns shows that the concepts of many patterns carry valuable experiences concerning finding system structures. On the other hand, the graphical representations of these patterns usually focus on the software structures resulting from the solution in terms of classes and their relationships. This can be a problem if the solution doesn't imply one specific software structure but rather describes a concept which may be even independent from an implementation via software at all.For that reason, Conceptual Patterns are introduced. A pattern can be called conceptual if both problem and solution concern system structures. Here, the functional aspects and structures of the system are relevant while code structures or even the use of software for implementation are not. To support the focus on system structures, terminology and notation of conceptual patterns should use an adequate means such as provided by the Fundamental Modeling Concepts (FMC). KW - Patterns KW - Systemstruktur KW - FMC KW - Konzeptionell KW - Patterns KW - System structure KW - FMC KW - Conceptual Y1 - 2004 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-2302 ER -