TY - JOUR A1 - Mustin, Karen A1 - Benton, Tim G. A1 - Dytham, Calvin A1 - Travis, Justin M. J. T1 - The dynamics of climate-induced range shifting : perspectives from simulation modelling N2 - Predicted future climate change will alter species' distributions as they attempt to track the most suitable 'climate window'. Climate envelope models indicate the direction of likely range changes but do not incorporate population dynamics, therefore observed responses may differ greatly from these projections. We use simulation modelling to explore the consequences of a period of environmental change for a species structured across an environmental gradient. Results indicate that a species' range may lag behind its climate envelope and demonstrate that the rate of movement of a range can accelerate during a period of climate change. We conclude that the inclusion of both population dynamics and spatial environmental variability is vital to develop models that can both predict, and be used to manage, the impact of changing climate on species' biogeography. Y1 - 2009 UR - http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/issn?DESCRIPTOR=PRINTISSN&VALUE=0030-1299 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2008.17025.x SN - 0030-1299 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zurell, Damaris A1 - König, Christian A1 - Malchow, Anne-Kathleen A1 - Kapitza, Simon A1 - Bocedi, Greta A1 - Travis, Justin M. J. A1 - Fandos, Guillermo T1 - Spatially explicit models for decision-making in animal conservation and restoration JF - Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology / Nordic Ecologic Society Oikos N2 - Models are useful tools for understanding and predicting ecological patterns and processes. Under ongoing climate and biodiversity change, they can greatly facilitate decision-making in conservation and restoration and help designing adequate management strategies for an uncertain future. Here, we review the use of spatially explicit models for decision support and to identify key gaps in current modelling in conservation and restoration. Of 650 reviewed publications, 217 publications had a clear management application and were included in our quantitative analyses. Overall, modelling studies were biased towards static models (79%), towards the species and population level (80%) and towards conservation (rather than restoration) applications (71%). Correlative niche models were the most widely used model type. Dynamic models as well as the gene-to-individual level and the community-to-ecosystem level were underrepresented, and explicit cost optimisation approaches were only used in 10% of the studies. We present a new model typology for selecting models for animal conservation and restoration, characterising model types according to organisational levels, biological processes of interest and desired management applications. This typology will help to more closely link models to management goals. Additionally, future efforts need to overcome important challenges related to data integration, model integration and decision-making. We conclude with five key recommendations, suggesting that wider usage of spatially explicit models for decision support can be achieved by 1) developing a toolbox with multiple, easier-to-use methods, 2) improving calibration and validation of dynamic modelling approaches and 3) developing best-practise guidelines for applying these models. Further, more robust decision-making can be achieved by 4) combining multiple modelling approaches to assess uncertainty, and 5) placing models at the core of adaptive management. These efforts must be accompanied by long-term funding for modelling and monitoring, and improved communication between research and practise to ensure optimal conservation and restoration outcomes. KW - adaptive management KW - biodiversity conservation KW - cost optimisation KW - ecosystem restoration KW - global change KW - predictive models Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05787 SN - 1600-0587 IS - 4 SP - 1 EP - 16 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Oxford ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zurell, Damaris A1 - König, Christian A1 - Malchow, Anne-Kathleen A1 - Kapitza, Simon A1 - Bocedi, Greta A1 - Travis, Justin M. J. A1 - Fandos, Guillermo T1 - Spatially explicit models for decision-making in animal conservation and restoration T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Models are useful tools for understanding and predicting ecological patterns and processes. Under ongoing climate and biodiversity change, they can greatly facilitate decision-making in conservation and restoration and help designing adequate management strategies for an uncertain future. Here, we review the use of spatially explicit models for decision support and to identify key gaps in current modelling in conservation and restoration. Of 650 reviewed publications, 217 publications had a clear management application and were included in our quantitative analyses. Overall, modelling studies were biased towards static models (79%), towards the species and population level (80%) and towards conservation (rather than restoration) applications (71%). Correlative niche models were the most widely used model type. Dynamic models as well as the gene-to-individual level and the community-to-ecosystem level were underrepresented, and explicit cost optimisation approaches were only used in 10% of the studies. We present a new model typology for selecting models for animal conservation and restoration, characterising model types according to organisational levels, biological processes of interest and desired management applications. This typology will help to more closely link models to management goals. Additionally, future efforts need to overcome important challenges related to data integration, model integration and decision-making. We conclude with five key recommendations, suggesting that wider usage of spatially explicit models for decision support can be achieved by 1) developing a toolbox with multiple, easier-to-use methods, 2) improving calibration and validation of dynamic modelling approaches and 3) developing best-practise guidelines for applying these models. Further, more robust decision-making can be achieved by 4) combining multiple modelling approaches to assess uncertainty, and 5) placing models at the core of adaptive management. These efforts must be accompanied by long-term funding for modelling and monitoring, and improved communication between research and practise to ensure optimal conservation and restoration outcomes. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1243 Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-549915 SN - 1866-8372 VL - 2022 SP - 1 EP - 16 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ET - 4 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Malchow, Anne-Kathleen A1 - Bocedi, Greta A1 - Palmer, Stephen C. F. A1 - Travis, Justin M. J. A1 - Zurell, Damaris T1 - RangeShiftR: an R package for individual-based simulation of spatial eco-evolutionary dynamics and speciesu0027 responses to environmental changes JF - Ecography N2 - Reliably modelling the demographic and distributional responses of a species to environmental changes can be crucial for successful conservation and management planning. Process-based models have the potential to achieve this goal, but so far they remain underused for predictions of species' distributions. Individual-based models offer the additional capability to model inter-individual variation and evolutionary dynamics and thus capture adaptive responses to environmental change. We present RangeShiftR, an R implementation of a flexible individual-based modelling platform which simulates eco-evolutionary dynamics in a spatially explicit way. The package provides flexible and fast simulations by making the software RangeShifter available for the widely used statistical programming platform R. The package features additional auxiliary functions to support model specification and analysis of results. We provide an outline of the package's functionality, describe the underlying model structure with its main components and present a short example. RangeShiftR offers substantial model complexity, especially for the demographic and dispersal processes. It comes with elaborate tutorials and comprehensive documentation to facilitate learning the software and provide help at all levels. As the core code is implemented in C++, the computations are fast. The complete source code is published under a public licence, making adaptations and contributions feasible. The RangeShiftR package facilitates the application of individual-based and mechanistic modelling to eco-evolutionary questions by operating a flexible and powerful simulation model from R. It allows effortless interoperation with existing packages to create streamlined workflows that can include data preparation, integrated model specification and results analysis. Moreover, the implementation in R strengthens the potential for coupling RangeShiftR with other models. KW - connectivity KW - conservation KW - dispersal KW - evolution KW - population dynamics KW - range dynamics Y1 - 2021 SN - 1600-0587 VL - 44 IS - 10 PB - John Wiley & Sons, Inc. CY - New Jersey ER - TY - GEN A1 - Malchow, Anne-Kathleen A1 - Bocedi, Greta A1 - Palmer, Stephen C. F. A1 - Travis, Justin M. J. A1 - Zurell, Damaris T1 - RangeShiftR: an R package for individual-based simulation of spatial eco-evolutionary dynamics and speciesu0027 responses to environmental changes T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Reliably modelling the demographic and distributional responses of a species to environmental changes can be crucial for successful conservation and management planning. Process-based models have the potential to achieve this goal, but so far they remain underused for predictions of species' distributions. Individual-based models offer the additional capability to model inter-individual variation and evolutionary dynamics and thus capture adaptive responses to environmental change. We present RangeShiftR, an R implementation of a flexible individual-based modelling platform which simulates eco-evolutionary dynamics in a spatially explicit way. The package provides flexible and fast simulations by making the software RangeShifter available for the widely used statistical programming platform R. The package features additional auxiliary functions to support model specification and analysis of results. We provide an outline of the package's functionality, describe the underlying model structure with its main components and present a short example. RangeShiftR offers substantial model complexity, especially for the demographic and dispersal processes. It comes with elaborate tutorials and comprehensive documentation to facilitate learning the software and provide help at all levels. As the core code is implemented in C++, the computations are fast. The complete source code is published under a public licence, making adaptations and contributions feasible. The RangeShiftR package facilitates the application of individual-based and mechanistic modelling to eco-evolutionary questions by operating a flexible and powerful simulation model from R. It allows effortless interoperation with existing packages to create streamlined workflows that can include data preparation, integrated model specification and results analysis. Moreover, the implementation in R strengthens the potential for coupling RangeShiftR with other models. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1178 KW - connectivity KW - conservation KW - dispersal KW - evolution KW - population dynamics KW - range dynamics Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-523979 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 10 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Malchow, Anne-Kathleen A1 - Bocedi, Greta A1 - Palmer, Stephen C. F. A1 - Travis, Justin M. J. A1 - Zurell, Damaris T1 - RangeShiftR BT - an R package for individual-based simulation of spatial changes JF - Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology / Nordic Ecologic Society Oikos N2 - Reliably modelling the demographic and distributional responses of a species to environmental changes can be crucial for successful conservation and management planning. Process-based models have the potential to achieve this goal, but so far they remain underused for predictions of species' distributions. Individual-based models offer the additional capability to model inter-individual variation and evolutionary dynamics and thus capture adaptive responses to environmental change. We present RangeShiftR, an R implementation of a flexible individual-based modelling platform which simulates eco-evolutionary dynamics in a spatially explicit way. The package provides flexible and fast simulations by making the software RangeShifter available for the widely used statistical programming platform R. The package features additional auxiliary functions to support model specification and analysis of results. We provide an outline of the package's functionality, describe the underlying model structure with its main components and present a short example. RangeShiftR offers substantial model complexity, especially for the demographic and dispersal processes. It comes with elaborate tutorials and comprehensive documentation to facilitate learning the software and provide help at all levels. As the core code is implemented in C++, the computations are fast. The complete source code is published under a public licence, making adaptations and contributions feasible. The RangeShiftR package facilitates the application of individual-based and mechanistic modelling to eco-evolutionary questions by operating a flexible and powerful simulation model from R. It allows effortless interoperation with existing packages to create streamlined workflows that can include data preparation, integrated model specification and results analysis. Moreover, the implementation in R strengthens the potential for coupling RangeShiftR with other models. KW - connectivity KW - conservation KW - dispersal KW - evolution KW - population dynamics KW - range dynamics Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05689 SN - 1600-0587 VL - 44 IS - 10 SP - 1443 EP - 1452 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Oxford [u.a.] ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bocedi, Greta A1 - Zurell, Damaris A1 - Reineking, Bjoern A1 - Travis, Justin M. J. T1 - Mechanistic modelling of animal dispersal offers new insights into range expansion dynamics across fragmented landscapes JF - Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.01041 SN - 0906-7590 SN - 1600-0587 VL - 37 IS - 12 SP - 1240 EP - 1253 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pakeman, Robin J. A1 - Pugnaire, Francisco I. A1 - Michalet, Richard A1 - Lortie, Chris J. A1 - Schiffers, Katja A1 - Maestre, Fernando T. A1 - Travis, Justin M. J. T1 - Is the cask of facilitation ready for bottling? : a symposium on the connectivity and future directions of positive plant interactions N2 - The 2009 British Ecological Society"s Annual Symposium entitled 'Facilitation in Plant Communities' was held at the University of Aberdeen, Scotland, from 20 to 22 April 2009. This was the first ever international meeting dedicated to the rapidly expanding field of facilitation. The aim of the symposium was to assess the current 'state-of- play' by contrasting findings from different systems and by looking outwards in an attempt to integrate this field with other related fields. It was also aimed at understanding how knowledge of facilitation can help understand community dynamics and be applied to ecosystem restoration. The symposium identified several key areas where future work is likely to be most profitable. Y1 - 2009 UR - http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/by/year U6 - https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2009.0384 SN - 1744-9561 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Travis, Justin M. J. A1 - Mustin, Karen A1 - Benton, Tim G. A1 - Dytham, Calvin T1 - Accelerating invasion rates result from the evolution of density-dependent dispersal N2 - Evolutionary processes play an important role in shaping the dynamics of range expansions, and selection on dispersal propensity has been demonstrated to accelerate rates of advance. Previous theory has considered only the evolution of unconditional dispersal rates, but dispersal is often more complex. For example, many species emigrate in response to crowding. Here, we use an individual-based model to investigate the evolution of density dependent dispersal into empty habitat, such as during an invasion. The landscape is represented as a lattice and dispersal between Populations follows a stepping-stone pattern. Individuals carry three 'genes' that determine their dispersal strategy when experiencing different population densities. For a stationary range we obtain results consistent with previous theoretical studies: few individuals emigrate from patches that are below equilibrium density. However, during the range expansion of a previously stationary population, we observe evolution towards dispersal strategies where considerable emigration occurs well below equilibrium density. This is true even for moderate costs to dispersal, and always results in accelerating rates of range expansion. Importantly, the evolution we observe at an expanding front depends upon fitness integrated over several generations and cannot be predicted by a consideration of lifetime reproductive success alone. We argue that a better understanding of the role of density dependent dispersal, and its evolution, in driving population dynamics is required especially within the context of range expansions. Y1 - 2009 UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00225193 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.03.008 SN - 0022-5193 ER -